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betfred r ascot specials. head to head, JG TO TRAIN A GROUP1 WINNER 4/5. too darn hot around 9/4, king of comedy 6/1, strad gold cup 13/8. DO THE MATHS.
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elisjohn,
But will one of them  |
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win
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doesnt matter does it, you can make a profit .
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I don't fancy Too Darn Hot, that is not a bet for me personally.
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Likewise Slippy
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so lay it, then you still have strad and koc running for you. , lay them as well , you have so many options, but hurry when fred sees this itll be 2/5
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arbing with who?
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2/5
 Are you for real elisjohn? |
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back 4/5 with fred, then just lay the jg horses on here , work your maths out its . .eg lay both tomorrow say tdh 200 at 9/4 and koc 50 at 7 , then worse scenario is losing 400, so you break even with your 4/5 fred bet. if both tomorrow lose then youve got 250 in the bank, then lay strad for say 250 , he wins cost you 375, which youve already got 250 , plus now 400 with fred. if he loses you break even on the bet.
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well what price do you make j gosden to train 1 group 1 winner this week
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Too Darn Hot will not win tomorrow, it's a max lay for me.
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ps forgot to put 500quid on the 4/5 in above post.
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im only telling you this, coz i cant get on online with them, and not able to get to shop, i.ll be backing this to whatever i can if still 4/5 in morning. { the only bad scenario is if too darn hot/ strad is a nr]
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is this a wind up?
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no. j gosden to train a group 1 winner this week is 4/5, considering tdarn hot is around 9/4 and strad is 6/4 , come on lads 4/5 with fred is steal of the century.{ or am i missing something here }.youve also got ko comedy running for you.
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If it is steal of the century, just take all the 4/5 and dont bother laying.... no like an arber.
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youve all got me thinking here if my maths is bonkers, so i,ll ask on another thread.
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Andrew.in.Sweden 17 Jun 19 19:13 Joined: 22 Apr 19 | Topic/replies: 465 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
elisjohn, But will one of them win? What's that got to do with it? SlippyBlue 17 Jun 19 19:34 Joined: 11 Jun 12 | Topic/replies: 28,097 | Blogger: SlippyBlue's blog Too Darn Hot will not win tomorrow, it's a max lay for me. What's that got to do with it? |
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exactly, at least one that understands, thought i was going senile.
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too darn hot win/ lose got nothing to do with it, strad win/ lose as well . there is money to be made, that my post.
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elisjohn,
I understand the logic now, i wasn't thinking straight. Good luck. |
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Too Darn Hot 3.35 to lay = 30%
Stradivarius 2.5 to lay = 40% So just those two come to 70%, i.e. a 4/9 shot. And Fred is apparently offering 4/5. Yet there are punters out there whose first reaction genuinely is "I don't fancy one of them" and "I've never understood this arbing lark." |
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so add k o com approx 7/1 to the mix , then whats the approx odds , thx scream. still 4/5 online
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Sorry, Andrew. Didn't see your last post.
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If you can lay King at 8.0 (12.5%), then it's 82.5% (about 2/11).
A/Cs closed, and SP only in his shops for me, but there you go. |
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Easiest way to think about this sort of probability questions is to consider, what is the odds on none of the above winning. So this would be a straight forward treble at reverse the odds. 4/6, 4/9 and 1/7. This would pay 7/4.
So the converse of none of them winning, is at least one of them winning, so the odds would be 4/7 |
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You're omitting the three possibilities of two of them winning, as well as the possibility of all three winning.
It's a patent rather than a treble. |
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Your maths are wrong screaming. You cannot combine the probabilities in the way you have done, as these are independent events and not in the same market.
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no 3 cant win, kocom same race as tdhot, but he might have another runner in a g1, checked but i dont think he has [ might have missed one]
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No I am not, I am taking the inverse of no winners (which is one or more winners). Both these probabilities must = 1.0.
So if no winners is 4/7, the inverse is 7/4 |
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im lost with the % etc , but top my head 4/5 was value .
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I'd forgotten King Of Comedy was in the same race. I just looked at the two shorties, and that was enough to make Fred's offer a mad price.
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Equine Flew: "one or more winners" is not the inverse of the "to lose" treble. It's the inverse of the singles, doubles and treble.
That's if they were all in different races, which they're not anyway. |
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thx for thisequine/ screaming, thought with the earlier posts that i was losing it.
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so the best way to maximise the 4/5, would be lay both tomorrow and hoping . both lose , and then lay stra , and hoping he wins. [ i think]
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has anyone had the 4/5 ?, still available
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backed j gosden to train a group 1 winner this week £200 max at 4/5.
layed too darn hot £80 at 3.25 liability £150 .layed king of comedy £30 at 7, liability £100. so if tdh wins i win £10 on the bet, if koc wins i win £60. neither win i win £110 with stradvarious to come. , |
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Nice one Elisjohn.
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