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Have cogitated on this many times but don't think I ever actually asked on here.
What would be your preference in backing a horse under any code e.g would you rather have a front runner or one which was held up well behind.....as opposed to tracking the pace closely?
Personally I would much rather a front runner with a jockey that can judge the fractions than one which might even be a better horse held up out the back.
What would be your preference in backing a horse under any code e.g would you rather have a front runner or one which was held up well behind.....as opposed to tracking the pace closely?
Personally I would much rather a front runner with a jockey that can judge the fractions than one which might even be a better horse held up out the back.
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doesn't it depend on how many other front runners there are in the race.............if there is a race of 12 and 6 are tearaway front runners wouldn't an hold up horse be an advantage...........isn't every race different....each judged on its merits??
Waiting for someone to say depends on the race.
To me if your a recrecational punter and dont rely on it for a living i prefer out the front, a run for your money.
To me if your a recrecational punter and dont rely on it for a living i prefer out the front, a run for your money.
Why would that be an advantage to a hold up horse Cardiff even if there was such a race?
As long as they are still in front at the jam stick Skinto?
I'm with you on that!!!
I'm with you on that!!!
"a jockey that can judge the fractions"
This is the difficult bit. There's a paragraph in Nick Mordins Betting Without Thinking (P 191) that reports on a study done by the AHT in Newmarket. Several top jockeys were asked to ride a series of horses over a measured three furlongs in 36 seconds. They actually did times between 34 and 39 seconds and to quote from the book 'they didn't seem to have the ability to judge how fast they were going, despite the fact that a couple of them had reputations for being great judges of pace".
I've only seen two really high class front running riders in my fifty years going racing - Cauthen and Gary Stevens. And I've long thought that the defeat of the Brigadier at York by Roberto, was down to the jockey on the winner being another US based brilliant judge of pace.
This is the difficult bit. There's a paragraph in Nick Mordins Betting Without Thinking (P 191) that reports on a study done by the AHT in Newmarket. Several top jockeys were asked to ride a series of horses over a measured three furlongs in 36 seconds. They actually did times between 34 and 39 seconds and to quote from the book 'they didn't seem to have the ability to judge how fast they were going, despite the fact that a couple of them had reputations for being great judges of pace".
I've only seen two really high class front running riders in my fifty years going racing - Cauthen and Gary Stevens. And I've long thought that the defeat of the Brigadier at York by Roberto, was down to the jockey on the winner being another US based brilliant judge of pace.
glen the markets are annoying but I'm sticking to stateside primarily now on the dirt rather than pre race our Aw where the pace is often farcical and too many think they are on pegasus.
AT lingfield you can pick out 3 front runners and yet still end up with a b0ll0x pace somehow and you often have half a dozen hard luck stories up the straight
AT lingfield you can pick out 3 front runners and yet still end up with a b0ll0x pace somehow and you often have half a dozen hard luck stories up the straight
If being front-runner was such a good idea, more people would do it in order to win their races and land their bets.
Something I commented on several times Anorak regarding the AW in particular which tbh I have only just given serious consideration recently as a study for betting.One thing I have mentioned several times is that a trainer bringing in a US jockey to ride on the AW would probably steal a good number of races.
Purely because of their knowledge of pace,particularly the shorter races.The clock is god in the US and those who decry their methods could learn plenty imo?
Joe Fanning is one of the best judges imo but then MJs horses are trained in the fashion they run so perhaps not as good as perceived.Steve Cauthen is probably the best there has ever been who rode in the UK and even after all the years he rode there nobody ever mastered the art?
Purely because of their knowledge of pace,particularly the shorter races.The clock is god in the US and those who decry their methods could learn plenty imo?
Joe Fanning is one of the best judges imo but then MJs horses are trained in the fashion they run so perhaps not as good as perceived.Steve Cauthen is probably the best there has ever been who rode in the UK and even after all the years he rode there nobody ever mastered the art?
Depends on the type of race and the horse. If you bet in running as I mainly do, a known front runner can be backed before the off and then laid while still travelling well in the lead. Conversely a known strong finisher can often be backed in running at fancy prices. There must be an awful lot of in running punters who have no idea what a horses running style is. A very recent example was Flaming Marvel last night when he and Ulster were almost joint favs. Ulster went to evens and then odds on after only 5 furlongs of a 14 furlong race because it was leading while FM drifted to 3 despite travelling very strongly on the bridle. The result was close but in running punters were heavily influenced by run style.
Any horse that's held up dependent on a fast early pace and unable to be on or near the pace, with rare
exceptions, is running at too short a distance, and/or has a trainer who doesn't understand racing.
exceptions, is running at too short a distance, and/or has a trainer who doesn't understand racing.
If being front-runner was such a good idea, more people would do it in order to win their races and land their bets
yeah, if it was a good idea, there would be 4 or 5 front-runners in every race
yeah, if it was a good idea, there would be 4 or 5 front-runners in every race
That's right, Duncan. But just think, a race might happen instead of a two furlong sprint!
consider yourself fortunate you arent betting in France, Australia or South Africa, roggrain...now there they really do dawdle
Love to see a Wesley Ward turn up at Longchamp with a few 2/3 yr old sprinters!
You want the best horse in the race regardless of whether it comes late or makes the running.
Oh, and on a going day.
It's of little use backing the best horse if it's not in form.
It's of little use backing the best horse if it's not in form.
The best horse in the race in the right place, the best horse in the wrong place given the pace can lose.
Jamie Spencer should have a 40% strike rate from what I've seen on here.
Jamie Spencer should have a 40% strike rate from what I've seen on here.
dr Crippen........you think the best horse wins everytime??
dr Crippen........you think the best horse wins everytime??
As long as you don't use that reasoning for an excuse when you've picked the wrong horse.
roggrain 27 Feb 19 10:24
Love to see a Wesley Ward turn up at Longchamp with a few 2/3 yr old sprinters!
Point and shoot!
Love to see a Wesley Ward turn up at Longchamp with a few 2/3 yr old sprinters!
Point and shoot!
On the AW it depends very much on the track profile.
For example, at Southwell over the 31/1/19 and 3/2/19 meetings, the winner of each of the four 5f races on the straight course was either leading or co-leading at 2f, 4f and the finish.
Clearly anybody going into this type of race favouring a hold-up horse is going to get spanked. Given the ignorance and laziness of most punters in this country I wonder how many who don't know this easily available information but still have a strong opinion on the 2:30 today.
For example, at Southwell over the 31/1/19 and 3/2/19 meetings, the winner of each of the four 5f races on the straight course was either leading or co-leading at 2f, 4f and the finish.
Clearly anybody going into this type of race favouring a hold-up horse is going to get spanked. Given the ignorance and laziness of most punters in this country I wonder how many who don't know this easily available information but still have a strong opinion on the 2:30 today.
Many trainers run their horses from the back, with the comments held up, never near leaders, always behind in their form.
Then on the big day they bounce out of the stalls, make all the running and scoot in.
Which reminds me of the cry from the starter in the days before starting stalls, when the runners used to form two rows.
''triers at the front - non-triers at the back.''
Then on the big day they bounce out of the stalls, make all the running and scoot in.
Which reminds me of the cry from the starter in the days before starting stalls, when the runners used to form two rows.
''triers at the front - non-triers at the back.''
A similar thing happens over fences.
We often see a chaser held up hitting every fence on the track as it blunders its way around to finish out of the money.
Then next time it flies every fence from the front never touching a twig or seeing another runner until it pulls up after the winning post.
Straight as a die this game.
We often see a chaser held up hitting every fence on the track as it blunders its way around to finish out of the money.
Then next time it flies every fence from the front never touching a twig or seeing another runner until it pulls up after the winning post.
Straight as a die this game.
And yet horses who have been held up on their run prior to Cheltenham haven't?
The big issue with any "front runner" (i.e. right at the front) is as to whether they can get an easy(ish) lead and dictate the pace. It's the absolute kiss of death if they get taken on for any significant length of time.
That's not just because the front runner then has to run faster, to maintain the lead - which is often cited. It's the psychological energy expended by having to "compete" too early. It's a very much understated phenomenon.
In response to the OP it really does depend on so many factors that I couldn't choose one or the other.
That's not just because the front runner then has to run faster, to maintain the lead - which is often cited. It's the psychological energy expended by having to "compete" too early. It's a very much understated phenomenon.
In response to the OP it really does depend on so many factors that I couldn't choose one or the other.
Davros 27 Feb 19 11:57
On the AW it depends very much on the track profile.
For example, at Southwell over the 31/1/19 and 3/2/19 meetings, the winner of each of the four 5f races on the straight course was either leading or co-leading at 2f, 4f and the finish.
Clearly anybody going into this type of race favouring a hold-up horse is going to get spanked. Given the ignorance and laziness of most punters in this country I wonder how many who don't know this easily available information but still have a strong opinion on the 2:30 today
Came from miles off the pace and p1ssed up,
On the AW it depends very much on the track profile.
For example, at Southwell over the 31/1/19 and 3/2/19 meetings, the winner of each of the four 5f races on the straight course was either leading or co-leading at 2f, 4f and the finish.
Clearly anybody going into this type of race favouring a hold-up horse is going to get spanked. Given the ignorance and laziness of most punters in this country I wonder how many who don't know this easily available information but still have a strong opinion on the 2:30 today
Came from miles off the pace and p1ssed up,
Mc carp regarding chelt
What u have is the cream of national
Hunt racing , and as a rule of thumb
Better quality horses run at a faster pace
If your holding up , trying to peck bsck tbe fractions
On a track line that at fest , you need to book in a bank
Loan after because you might hit one dart in 20
But no way u wd win long term , it’s simple logistics of racing
In these competitive fields , sometimes only half doz len between
Say 3 or 4 of tve best sel , your horse gets held up on what’s normally a fast pace
First it has to be I back horses up with the pace , but then hit the hill
At which time inevitably they have expanded far too much energy and hsve bothibg left in the tank
Fir the hill , a common term is they bottom out !
Novice punters have this false visual at that track ie ‘ it finished line a train !
But 9 times out of 10 it’s tve rest of the runners actually stopping up the hill
Sliding giving the impression tve horse in the assendency is going much faster
It’s an optical allusion in laymen’s terms !
Only a complete idiot would back regular hold up horse at the fest meeting !
What u have is the cream of national
Hunt racing , and as a rule of thumb
Better quality horses run at a faster pace
If your holding up , trying to peck bsck tbe fractions
On a track line that at fest , you need to book in a bank
Loan after because you might hit one dart in 20
But no way u wd win long term , it’s simple logistics of racing
In these competitive fields , sometimes only half doz len between
Say 3 or 4 of tve best sel , your horse gets held up on what’s normally a fast pace
First it has to be I back horses up with the pace , but then hit the hill
At which time inevitably they have expanded far too much energy and hsve bothibg left in the tank
Fir the hill , a common term is they bottom out !
Novice punters have this false visual at that track ie ‘ it finished line a train !
But 9 times out of 10 it’s tve rest of the runners actually stopping up the hill
Sliding giving the impression tve horse in the assendency is going much faster
It’s an optical allusion in laymen’s terms !
Only a complete idiot would back regular hold up horse at the fest meeting !
I'm not disputing what you say, I'm just saying if you had backed every horse that had the comment held up in the form commentary in its pre Cheltenham Festival race since 2014 you would be showing a small profit to BSP (inc -5%) compared with big losses for prominent and led horses. I'm guessing that's more to do with the fact they blew out & went off at a bigger price than they should of come Cheltenham for this profit but I haven't looked at the figures in detail.
No one seems to have told Elliott and Mullins they must obey this rule of not getting hold up winners at the festival.
Hello striding, I don't know if you saw my post on the how much has everyone won/lost in February Tim Uk thread but I was wondering your thoughts on me losing consistently on a Saturday? Is it just randomness or is it a day to avoid and how would I go about determing which one it is?
Saturday's more competitive as a rule?, certainly often very hectic. Apart from that don't know mate, I don't do a great deal pre race. There shouldn't be anything specific about a day.Perhaps just a short run phenomenon but keep an eye on it.
I'm off in a bit not back till later, gl today.
I'm off in a bit not back till later, gl today.
Thanks striding. Yes, any other day & I'd be thinking randomness but as you say racing on a Saturday is generally different, more competitive and better quality racing.
Have a look at Regression analysis McCoy. Not used it since my Uni days but if all other data is consistent you should be able to test your hypothesis.
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