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Willie Shafter.
27 Dec 18 15:27
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 38,852 | Blogger: Willie Shafter.'s blog
blv english tracks is about 1,5 quicker.
Pause Switch to Standard View Blv speeded up
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Report Willie Shafter. January 1, 2019 8:22 PM GMT
so,what is race reading? laying hard pullers? laying a stayer if the pace is slow?
backing the back markers if gone to fast? laying if making mistakes?
race reading is akin to doing the bleeding obvious.
Report Willie Shafter. January 1, 2019 8:23 PM GMT
im still trying to fathom out how race reading entitles you to lay faugheen 3 out Laugh
Report andyl January 1, 2019 9:15 PM GMT
if I give someone 4/5 a coin toss and they win,is it value?
Report cardenden January 1, 2019 9:48 PM GMT
G  A  R  R  Y.  Can you post your full p/l for march the 30th 2018..thank you


Oh and by the way ..was that valueLaugh
Report Willie Shafter. January 1, 2019 9:51 PM GMT
Lifetime summaryApplies across 82,219 Exchange markets
Gross profit & loss

£1,295,431.81

Commission

Other charges

Premium Charges

Total charges (40.3%)

Maximum possible premium charge

£154,593.02

+

£0    
+

£367,518.46

=

£522,111.48

its in amongst that.
Report dustybin January 1, 2019 9:52 PM GMT
That is extremely disingenuous and cynical, you are implying that by the law of averages nothing of ability is occurring and overtime given the amount of take out by bf even a slight margin over the statistical norm of wins to losses would naturally result in ruin.

Today I won a total of 1279 and lost less than 9 pounds.
By your estimation I’d be stumbling from occasional victory to calamity, which simply is not the case.
Report cardenden January 1, 2019 10:00 PM GMT
Hes a baw bag dusty
Report mouse muldoon January 1, 2019 10:02 PM GMT
cardy, poast ya pc portal
Report mouse muldoon January 1, 2019 10:04 PM GMT
https://myaccount.betfair.com/activity/premium-charges
Report andyl January 1, 2019 10:07 PM GMT
mouse,if cardy had one to post it'll have been posted before now,another potless mug with nowt in his mundane life Laugh
Report mouse muldoon January 1, 2019 10:09 PM GMT
He's like the other mug what calls himself the greatest poaster but can't poast it even if you put the link up for him.
Report andyl January 1, 2019 10:10 PM GMT
dusty,lets be honest,you chucked a tenner away at a horse 4L down halfway up run in and got lucky,wd for that,losing £9 all day means you didn't get one wrong in same circumstances,wd for that also.
Report dustybin January 1, 2019 10:15 PM GMT
I saw a horse that was over priced in relation to its chance of winning.
As I have alluded to previously, at home punters need to develop their own angle beyond the obvious as there is no low hanging fruit.
To disparage the abilities of those who do it as flukes etc is just low brow.
Report andyl January 1, 2019 10:17 PM GMT
was that winner the only horse you seen all day halfway up run in where you considered the price to be wrong? not one other click all day on a horse in the same circumstances? you my friend are a genius.
Report dustybin January 1, 2019 10:21 PM GMT
I generate profit by converting value others throw away fighting to get matched, all races don’t pan out the same but there’s value in every single one, I don’t find it every race but in most I’d at least get my stake back.
I am very good, there are others who are easily as good and don’t need to triumph their wins, but to say these people can’t exist is simply way wrong.
Report mouse muldoon January 1, 2019 10:21 PM GMT
I must admit I'm a value man myself, I always back value in the place markets as implied by the win market.
Report mouse muldoon January 1, 2019 10:24 PM GMT
For which I don't need any pictures at all, but obviously I'd welcome any improvement in the pictures that brings more liquidity.
Report duncan idaho January 2, 2019 9:20 AM GMT
Willie Shafter. 01 Jan 19 20:22

race reading is akin to doing the bleeding obvious



so those who win consistently from home despite the time disadvantage are merely 'doing the bleeding obvious'. Easy game obv. Oh dear Blush
Report screaming from beneaththewaves January 2, 2019 9:45 AM GMT
Jet Master     *     89.39     9.30     Back           821.99 - Indubitably a shrewd and skilful bet

Jet Master     *     4.75     64.56     Lay           -242.15 - If there's a bet here that deserves criticism, it's THIS one; but definitely NOT the previous one.

Then again, my profit on that race came to just £18.37, so who am I to tell anyone how they should have played it?
Report dustybin January 2, 2019 9:53 AM GMT
Until it wins the shrewd bet has no value, many shrewd bets die without trace......unless you monetise the f uckers by hedging something, hence the bit ‘deserving of criticism’.
Ofc you might argue had I been on course I’d have got all of the bet, and hedged nothing.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves January 2, 2019 10:11 AM GMT
We could argue all day about whether or not greening up is the right or wrong thing to do. There are so many factors involved - as you say, you could argue that greening up is still cheaper and more convenient than attending on-course. (I don't agree, but, then again, that's what makes markets.)

But one thing's certain - backing a proven stayer like Jet Master at 88/1, when it's still in with a squeak in a 3m hurdle, is a shrewd bet. I mean, for most of the race it was actually trading a few ticks below its Betfair SP, even though it was in last place all that time. People were taking short odds about it precisely because they were anticipating it getting outpaced and staying on. The irony is that when that duly happened, that was when the price got bigger.

It's as though there's two separate markets - one for the bulk of a race, and another gropup of punters just joining in for just the last two furlongs.
Report andyl January 2, 2019 10:38 AM GMT
jet master,13yr old,never won a 3m race,fav 10yr old 4L clear 100yds to go has.
Report mouse muldoon January 2, 2019 10:45 AM GMT
^ ageist
Report bettinghelp January 2, 2019 10:53 AM GMT
screaming from beneaththewaves 02 Jan 19 10:11

It's as though there's two separate markets - one for the bulk of a race, and another gropup of punters just joining in for just the last two furlongs.


Feels like that to me too, and something a lot of folk seem to be missing is that what they're referring to as "race reading" should actually be referred to as "current price vs. current/possible future race conditions reading".

Accurate race reading is only of any use (profit-wise) if you can trade at what you reckon are currently incorrect prices. And you don't necessarily need the horse to win/lose. You just need to nab incorrect prices for maybe a few seconds. Every day, horses trade from 25's down to 7's and vice versa in a heartbeat nowhere near the finish. The "reader's job is simply to anticipate such moves.

It's all about the price. Always.
Report dustybin January 2, 2019 11:33 AM GMT
Absolutely correct.
Fluctuating markets contain constant opportunity, attempting to define it simply in terms of whether a horse stays on at the end or not is only part of the whole. What I believe is key is not to overindulge in stats of horses etc, but to study what the humans do in response, markets arnt reflections of the state of the race, they are reflections of people’s perceptions.
Humans are flawed, non more so than gamblers, all you have to be is less flawed that the collective average.

Yes screaming, though mentally I prefer to have a constant return rather than waiting for large wins.
You say ‘cheaper’, I know I’d make significantly more on course and it would be a ‘good investment’, but I’m not lost to greed to such an extent that I would go to such trouble, when I can get my rod out from here and catch plenty of fish.
Report andyl January 2, 2019 12:17 PM GMT
50 odd races yesterday and only £9 in losers. Chucked a tenner away at something looking the unlikely winner at the time and hit the bullseye,yet in 50 races and not one similar bet that the horse didn't shorten,utterly remarkable.
Report dustybin January 2, 2019 12:34 PM GMT
I dont sit waiting on horses finishing hard, I adapt to the environment of each race. Im not a one trick pony andy...if this is andy.
If it is andy then you are simply showing why you packed it in, if you couldnt make it pay on course then you aint got much judgement to try and pick the bones out of my turds
Report bugs bunny January 2, 2019 12:48 PM GMT
lol dusty if andy couldnt win live with his race reading skills on track hes not got a cat in hells chance at home 1 sec plus slower and there be plenty more on track in the same boat the titanic as him ,
Report bugs bunny January 2, 2019 1:02 PM GMT
blv to facetime delay please ?, at hereford thanks in advance
Report DixiEnormus January 2, 2019 1:10 PM GMT
blv is .5 behind facetimed pics
Report DixiEnormus January 2, 2019 1:10 PM GMT
at hereford
Report DixiEnormus January 2, 2019 1:14 PM GMT
however wolves blv is about 2 secs behind facetimed pics  be careful
Report cardenden January 2, 2019 1:15 PM GMT
hope  all you in running,, lose everything.
Report cardenden January 2, 2019 1:16 PM GMT
CAN YOU POST YOUR FULL P/L FOR 30TH MARCH 2018,  THANK YOU GARRY.
Report geoff m January 2, 2019 1:20 PM GMT
cardenden 02 Jan 19 13:15 Joined: 27 Feb 17 | Topic/replies: 9,084 | Blogger: cardenden's blog
hope  all you in running,, lose everything.

What a stupid comment. How can all lose yer daft c*nt.
Report jamesdean January 2, 2019 1:25 PM GMT
probs about .3 for most on ft then (dixi must be near top of tree)
great stuff for the lv boys
Report screaming from beneaththewaves January 2, 2019 1:28 PM GMT
andyl 02 Jan 19 10:38 Joined: 28 May 02 | Topic/replies: 3,206 | Blogger: andyl's blog
jet master,13yr old,never won a 3m race,fav 10yr old 4L clear 100yds to go has.


Yes. But it wasn't 88/1, was it?


bettinghelp 02 Jan 19 10:53 Joined: 11 Sep 06 | Topic/replies: 637 | Blogger: bettinghelp's blog

It's all about the price. Always.


Well, exactly.
Report andyl January 2, 2019 1:29 PM GMT
watch jet masters last 5 races and tell me where it found a sprint finish.
Report bugs bunny January 2, 2019 1:33 PM GMT
cheers willie , so same speed as before must be a problem at wolvo sure they will be working on it Scared
Report dustybin January 2, 2019 1:34 PM GMT
OCD that andy, trying to find reason while everyone packed up and gone home
I might have already built up more profit within a race and backed a horse on the basis it would likely run on but didnt....but all things being equal I still profit
What is you problem here?
Report screaming from beneaththewaves January 2, 2019 1:38 PM GMT
It's a 3m hurdle. Nothing sprints at the finish. Most of them slow down, while one or two plod on. It just looks like they're sprinting. Jet Master is a proven plodder-on.

Last time out:  kept on to take 2nd near finish, over 2m 6f
Time before: won readily
Time before:  plugged on to go modest 3rd over 2m 4f
Time before: weakened after 134-day absence
Time before:  steady headway and in touch when badly hampered by faller bend before 2 out, no danger after in a 3m hurdle.
Report Deltâ January 2, 2019 1:45 PM GMT
cant compare chase to hurdle
hth
Report screaming from beneaththewaves January 2, 2019 1:56 PM GMT
You can at 88/1 though.
imo
Report duffy January 2, 2019 3:09 PM GMT
So, can someone tell me, are the SSR pictures on the tele quicker than ATR or has LV slowed on ATR pictures because the gap between LV and the tele on the first race I've seen at Hereford today is worse than it was before the switch over.
Report bugs bunny January 2, 2019 3:42 PM GMT
duffy herford speed is good on blv , calling willie for a newcastle blv speed check ? thanks
Report duffy January 2, 2019 3:58 PM GMT
No-one seems to be able to answer the important question of whether the channel has speeded up because the gap between the channel and lv is less than before the switch so how are we saying it's good, based on what exactly?
Report Willie Shafter. January 2, 2019 3:58 PM GMT
blv on 1 sec buffer is -1.5..will try on .5 next race.
Report Willie Shafter. January 2, 2019 3:59 PM GMT
its speeded up becos the uplink is now done via fibre..the satellite are being phased out..sis truck at newc is on standby..ie dish isnt being utilised.
Report jamesdean January 2, 2019 4:01 PM GMT
Duffy, not sure anyone thinks sky racing speeding up or down by 1 or 2 seconds is important hence no answer.

The only important thing is how fast isthe lv now to live and the good news is it's as fast as its ever been.
Report duffy January 2, 2019 4:02 PM GMT
how much quicker is the channel than ATR was and what was different with wolver today as that was slower on lv than the other two tracks?
Report Willie Shafter. January 2, 2019 4:07 PM GMT
.5 buffer its -1.4
Report Willie Shafter. January 2, 2019 4:08 PM GMT
some tracks blv is 1.5 quicker..why the disparity re wolves is an unknown.
Report duffy January 2, 2019 4:08 PM GMT
james, you've confused me or I must be missing something, I not bothered per se whether the channel quickened up for the purpose of using it, but the gapbetween it and the lv is important to gauge how far lv is ahead.
Report Willie Shafter. January 2, 2019 4:10 PM GMT
blv this week has been 1 sec behind..today at newc its 1.5..at wolves was 2.5
Report jamesdean January 2, 2019 4:14 PM GMT
and hereford .7ish behind
Report duffy January 2, 2019 4:15 PM GMT
Cheers Willie, that's what I'm on about, we've got a net loss since the switch, the channel itself is used as a "control" by us at home a sign post to see where we are compared to the important LV, if one day the gap between the two is 6.5 secs and the next it's 5 or lower then something has happened.

If the channel has speeded up by that gap then we know lv has not changed and is still good but if the channel hasn't speeded up then by definition the lv would have had to slowed by that gap.
Report duffy January 2, 2019 4:16 PM GMT
If there's differing gaps all over the shop between courses then that's a problem, yesterday Fairyhouse was the problem, today it was Wolver, before the switch we were good everywhere.
Report jamesdean January 2, 2019 4:23 PM GMT
Good everywhere? Lv times were constantly all over the place at different tracks before the switch as well
sometimes they were slower for a race or 2 then speeded up after complaints, it's never been bang on speeds all the time.
Chelmsford for 1 chopped and changed every meeting

It's fast like it has been every meeting since boxing day except wolver today because they had issues 1st race which has already been mentioned.
There's been no loss in speeds since the switch

Ireland no one knows yet as only had 2 meetings to go by and both were different. When Leicester went ruk their first meeting was slow as well
so hopefully that's the same regarding fairyhouse. Leicester speeded up 2nd meeting ruk took over
Report pablo-fanque January 2, 2019 4:38 PM GMT
and hereford .7ish behind

behind live or some other feed JD ?
Report duffy January 2, 2019 4:38 PM GMT
James

I haven't had any lv problems for ....well I can't even remember when, for months now on mine the gap between lv and the channel has been a good 6 secs constantly with no problems, I've seen all the threads regarding the pausing and lv unusable, haven't experienced any of those problems myself.
Report jamesdean January 2, 2019 4:45 PM GMT
live pablo, .5 behind ft as dixi said

Everyones timings will differ by a milisecond here and there duff just by the the nature of timing everything, internet speeds,
location etc etc some people have faster sky ruk than ruk lv and vice versa etc. I hear what youre saying regarding sky racing for timings
but never use that and going by my methods (that atleast another 4 people are using and confirming) the speeds have all been great
since boxing day bar wolver
Report duffy January 2, 2019 4:49 PM GMT
Fair enough james, I suppose if there was a marked turn for the worse we'd all know about it soon enough on here anywaysGrin
Report pablo-fanque January 2, 2019 5:06 PM GMT
holy sh*t , that's great

cheers JD
Report dustybin January 2, 2019 5:19 PM GMT
well somebody is leaving money behind at the track
its easier than the feed used to be
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 2, 2019 5:49 PM GMT
That last race was behind SSR for me.
Report pablo-fanque January 2, 2019 6:21 PM GMT
same here Jack

sky sports racing did report that a large grey haired man was spotted running away from the SIS van whilst holding a pair of pliers shouting "nee wan ganna teek ma wan ohh wans"

might have something to do with it
Report Willie Shafter. January 2, 2019 6:22 PM GMT
Jack Bauer '24'    02 Jan 19 17:49 
That last race was behind SSR for me.

im not suprised as it 6 secs behind.
Report mouse muldoon January 2, 2019 6:23 PM GMT
Put the weather report on the Newc thread please Willie.
Report bugs bunny January 2, 2019 6:41 PM GMT
whats ganning on at the toon willie the blv is so slow now  i cant race read without binoculars
Report Willie Shafter. January 2, 2019 6:45 PM GMT
was ok earlier..ive no idea.
Report Willie Shafter. January 2, 2019 6:46 PM GMT
just timed it..with .5 buffer and its 1.4 behind.
Report Jack Bauer '24' January 2, 2019 6:49 PM GMT
Yeah, back to normal there.
Report bugs bunny January 2, 2019 6:55 PM GMT
agreed its back they must be trying to speed it up further but went the wrong way with the switch Excited
Report dustybin January 5, 2019 11:15 PM GMT
Like Tortoise and the Hare innit?

Mountain Hawk     390.00     2.32     Back     05-Jan-19 13:00     902.48
Report duffy January 6, 2019 1:20 AM GMT
Willie sent a picture in of the point in which you backed it...looked a million and you got no value

https://www.vectorstock.com/royalty-free-vector/a-tired-horse-vector-4014863
Report Willie Shafter. January 6, 2019 2:38 AM GMT
ask him to post his lay Laugh
Report dustybin January 6, 2019 9:42 AM GMT
Mountain Hawk    *    141.37    7.32    Back         1,027.48
Mountain Hawk    *    18.92    52.45    Lay         -940.10

Backed as the leader 5hit all over the last then layed as it still had loads to do. Nothing wrong with that, on all probability it would still not have got up and my off course value wouldn't have come to anything. Like I mentioned to Biscar, I prefer a constant return.
But this is cutting cloth accordingly, how many bags did you have to ask Mr Barclay to hand back WS?
Report duffy January 6, 2019 2:37 PM GMT
dusty,

what are you using to put in that lay?
Report dustybin January 6, 2019 2:44 PM GMT
just normal gruss
Report duffy January 6, 2019 2:49 PM GMT
You hitting the level profit greening up button though?.......not a custom colomn?
Report dustybin January 6, 2019 2:51 PM GMT
I dont use anything like that, I just manually hedge, its 1 click so easy enough
Report Rollo Tomasi January 6, 2019 3:19 PM GMT
dustybin,
You will never go bust taking profits all the time but like duffy I wondered about your steaks. Why a 52.45 lay, did you cancel some from a rounder figure?
Report screaming from beneaththewaves January 6, 2019 3:20 PM GMT
What about the times when you can't take a profit? Wouldn't you go bust that way?
Report duffy January 6, 2019 3:25 PM GMT
I used to just use the level profit button but one time in  Musselburgh race I gave away 3 grand when I clicked out in the level profit column in a blind panic, I still won 700 but ended up feeling like I'd missed the race all together, I realize that's a mug statement, but there you are.

After that someone pointed me toward the custom columns which I now use if I'm lucky enough to hit a big price I/R. as it's far more controlled.
Report Rollo Tomasi January 6, 2019 3:29 PM GMT
SFBTW,
You need to be in the taking profits situation "all the time" but nobody loses on bf.
Report dustybin January 6, 2019 3:30 PM GMT
I do it this way because I do different things depending on how races pan out...I dont want to be looking away too often to locate the right custom column
Regarding the amount matched I suppose I did cancel when it looked a better chance of winning than I thought

I wouldnt go skint even not taking profit as its judgement aint it, experience. As it happens that race thats all I did, but normally theres a chance I already have a green book, so chucking a few quid on something far too big because those snatching at the other end of the market are falling over themselves to make money is just like having a multiple bet IR
Report screaming from beneaththewaves January 6, 2019 3:31 PM GMT
I should have realized that by now, RT.
Report tomhunt January 6, 2019 3:37 PM GMT
i have asked gruss lads for some time to take the level equation from the back side price rather than the lay side price for that reason duffy, the prices are way too differential and have been for some time
Report Rollo Tomasi January 6, 2019 3:37 PM GMT
duffy,
I asked Gary to put custom columns in BA for years. In the old days before the API I used to program each function key on the top row to submit a price, tab to steak box, enter the steak, tab to submit button and submit.
Report duffy January 6, 2019 3:45 PM GMT
Custom columns help me a lot, I don't need to look away as such, everything is comfortable on the screen, I've a minimalist, loads of the gruss stuff I have turned off.
Report dustybin January 7, 2019 5:24 PM GMT


Faster BFLV for the peeps
Got em well and truly rattled.
Report mouse muldoon January 7, 2019 6:05 PM GMT
oi oi foxy
Report dustybin January 7, 2019 6:11 PM GMT
wolfie
Report kjansch January 7, 2019 6:57 PM GMT
Wolves seems slower than last Friday to me on BLV
Report Willie Shafter. January 7, 2019 7:09 PM GMT
florence says it foxie..
Report mouse muldoon January 7, 2019 7:16 PM GMT
I knows.
Report Willie Shafter. January 7, 2019 8:27 PM GMT
ok..power to the people
Report RacingLuck January 11, 2019 12:06 PM GMT
Whats the speed like for irish stuff on LV now? has it sped up since the 1st?
Report duncan idaho January 11, 2019 12:30 PM GMT
last i heard on here was that lv & racingtv both around 3 secs behind live for Irish racing  Sad...stand to be corrected
Report Willie Shafter. January 11, 2019 1:04 PM GMT
yest blv was 3.3 behind and rtv 3.
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