Just back from the city centre after a wee plunge on this beast..

Capla Gilda in the first Lingfield looks promising  as well

giving up backing shorties, no idea how people can make it pay

giving up backing shorties, no idea how people can make it pay




To keep it brief LR, if you back 100 even money shots and 60 win, you will show a profit. I suppose you could call it having an edge.

how do you avoid backing more losers than winners though? and an even money shot won't be a genuine even money shot if bookies factor in their cut

how do you avoid backing more losers than winners though?



As I said previously, it's called having an edge. I make my own tissue and have my own ratings which I FIND PERSONALLY a help.

As for today's selection I make it a 1/2 shot but that's only my opinion and like everyone on here I often get it wrong.

The problem with even money shots and lesser prices is you wont see many in a handicap although today for me is an exception.

If you look at Molly Mai for example, I have factored in the 13lbs weight difference, however there is also the added 5lbs allowance but

I have also factored that in due to the pilot not looking to be one for the future. That again is my opinion only.

To make a profit backing shorties you need a high winning strike rate although some odds-on are value as i've mentioned on several threads before. Having said that is 8/11 (1.73) value here ? I don't think so.

Top weight but only rated 82 (gone up 6 lb for win LTO) and his winning form is on Tapeta.

Giving away a lot of weight to 3 others all with a chance of winning, in particular the improving filly Mollie Mai who receives 13 lb + 5 lb jockey claim. 18 lb = 9L.

Good luck Stewart, i hope it wins for you. I couldn't back it at 8/11, but i wouldn't lay it either.

i just in racing the numbers are against you when it comes to shorties

what's the average field size. eight, nine runners? nothing under 2-1 ever seems to be value to me, and a horrendous number of them get beat

fair play if you can make it pay, you must be a better man than me.

Good luck Stewart, i hope it wins for you. I couldn't back it at 8/11, but i wouldn't lay it either.



Nothing like hedging you bets Andrew. That aside as previously mentioned by me, I wish I had read your Irish Leger summary. Still would have lost but to lesser stakes. Keep up the good work my friend and long may you stay in profit.

if you can't make it pay with the odds available here you've got absolutely no chance walking into a bookies ... why you taking 8/11 - could have beaten that here all morning (matched at 1.98)

It's either a back or a lay no hedging as you say stewarty.
For me it's a lay but good luck to one of us anyway.

only just stewy

wd

Well done, stewarty.

stewy knewy.........enen the price

wd

even ffs

good call with massam

if you can't make it pay with the odds available here you've got absolutely no chance walking into a bookies ... why you taking 8/11



Because I got it right.....it was a 1/2 shot. I don't like repeating myself but re: trolls into the town, I get it right approx. 50-60 % of the time....price wise. It's easily checked.

Stewy can spell his name right 50-60% of the time as well

Stewy will be stopped by the police at this rate, for burglary!

How rude can one get? Thanks lads. (had a carpet fitter in) (genuinely)

You only had £3 on stewy?

Each Way I think

1:50
Yarmouth
18 Sep 2018
Robert Eustace 50th Birthday Nursery Handicap
(Class 4) (0-85, 2yo) (1m3yds) 1m Good To Firm
1st £4,787.06 2nd £1,424.50 3rd £711.88 4th £355.94



Result
Analysis
My Ratings
Past Winners
POS. (DRAW)   
HORSE / SP
TRAINER / JOCKEY
AGE    WGT    OR    TS    RPR    MR   
1 (1)

Runner Jacket
1. Massam 1/2F
Richard Kingscote
Mark Johnston
2    97     82    –    –    –   
Made all, travelling best over 2f out, shaken up readily asserted over 1f out, shifting left but in no danger final furlong, very easily (op 4/6)
2 (4)
6
Runner Jacket
2. Lethal Guest 5/1
Oisin Murphy
Mick Channon
2    810     71    –    –    –   
Held up in touch, effort over 2f out, went 2nd but winner going clear 1f out, kept on but no chance (op 3/1)
3 (2)
4½ [10½]
Runner Jacket
4. Whenapoet 20/1
Royston Ffrench
Michael Appleby
2    85     66    –    –    –   
Took keen hold, chased winner, ridden entering final 3f out, unable to quicken and outpaced over 1f out, lost 2nd 1f out, soon weakened (op 16/1 tchd 20/1)
4 (3)
1¾ [12¼]
Runner Jacket
3. Molly Mai 4/1
Gabriele Malune5
Philip McBride
2    83     69    –    –    –   
Dwelt, in touch, shaken up entering final 3f, edged left and ridden over 2f out, driven and outpaced over 1f out, weakened final furlong (op 5/1 tchd 6/1)




Andrew in Sweden 18 Sep 18 12:57 Joined: 10 Nov 07 | Topic/replies: 11,087 | Blogger: Andrew in Sweden's blog
To make a profit backing shorties you need a high winning strike rate although some odds-on are value as i've mentioned on several threads before. Having said that is 8/11 (1.73) value here ? I don't think so.

Top weight but only rated 82 (gone up 6 lb for win LTO) and his winning form is on Tapeta.

Giving away a lot of weight to 3 others all with a chance of winning, in particular the improving filly Mollie Mai who receives 13 lb + 5 lb jockey claim. 18 lb = 9L.



This is why I prefer my own ratings Andrew. Albeit not always 100% spot on.

as much as you want at 8/11, they're sticking it straight back on here at 1.83

try getting 8/11 when it's 1.67 here, they'll take your photo, send it to head office then pick you up and drop kick you out the front door ....

I might take you up on checking out your record with these shorties Stew when I have some time!

You only had £3 on stewy?



You've lost me there jmdc. Perhaps you are thinking of a beast I backed ridden by JP'S favourite jockey?

try getting 8/11 when it's 1.67 here,



It was 8/11 on here when I left home and the same price on here. (less commission)

Carpet is racing slang for 3 stewy.

Indeed jmdc. Had you said double carpet it would have sunk in straight away. Thinking of the good old days when Big Mac shouted it regularly when we had CH4 and page 688 on BBC teletext.

Stewart,

Well done, i didn't see the race (work) but it won very easily by all accounts and you got a price. Not for me, but hope you made plenty.

fook me stewy when ya said you were gonna have a big plunge on the beast i was wondering whether big d was nicknamed the beast and got a bit concerned .just pulling yer leg stewy well done !

Thanks Andrew. Sometimes it's nice just to get it right, especially price wise. Easier said than done and I have no objection to posts like these...


[b]I might take you up on checking out your record with these shorties Stew when I have some time![/b


From a good egg on the forum and although I haven't checked i'm updating my 50-60% of beating the price to 70%.

It's there for all to see if they want to check. Of course, that 70% is beating the SP when I fancy one strongly, not a win/loss %.

Well done stewarty, well pleased for you mate.

Thanks Slippy. Was going to post this selection but as I am not a tipster I will PM you it instead!

OK stewarty

That was embarrassing Slippy.

Slippy, albeit it was down to the wire, feel free to share anything with the forum if you do so wish. And trust me, my next selection will perform as well as this one.

Bookmakers love laying the shorties'


overtime, only one winner !


Well done just the same .

Wd stewarty nice to see those bookies paying out I would rather have a 1/2 winner than a 10/1 loser just the one bet for me today 3.00 soverign debt @ Yarmouth got group entries in the dewhusrt and the Derby should to be up to winning a Yarmouth maiden good luck with yer bets today

Does Ruth Carr know he's running Kev, she thought she'd retired him.

Lol George I meant sovereign grant let's hope he's as good George