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These 53 comments are related to the topic:
First 5 Fav's Stop at a Winner
First 5 Fav's Stop at a Winner
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Replies: 53
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@posy
You could be right there, when I first done it it was in the middle of summer and horses were probably running more to form. Your reasoning would certainly indicate why there are more false favourites at the moment. Thanks for the heads up and Good luck today. |
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The last meeting of the week, Dundalk, done me up causing a £364.02 loss overall.
Those who said leave Irish racing alone were proved correct. Friday 14th Sept Chester 1st race 4/6 Won £6.66 Doncaster 4th race 2/1 Won £90 - That’s £80@2/1 = £160 less £70 loss 3 previous races. Listowel 1st race 3/1 Won £30 Salisbury 2nd race 1/8 Lost £7.50 - That’s £20@1/8 = £2.50 less £10 loss on 1st race. Sandown 1st race 9/4 Won £22.50 Profit on Day = £141.66 Saturday 15th Sept Chester Lost £310 Chelmsford 2nd race 9/4 Won £35.00 Listowel Lost £310 Doncaster 2nd race 5/2 Won £40.00 Bath 2nd race 2/1 Won £30.00 Musselburgh 1st race 10/11 Won £9.09 Leopardstown 3rd race 6/5 Won £18.00 Lingfield 3rd race 8/11 Lost £0.90 Loss on Day = £487.01 Sunday 16th September Ffos Las 2nd race 5/4 Won £15.00 Currah 2nd race 11/8 Won £17.50 Bath 5th race 4/7 Lost £58.58 Loss on Day = £26.08 Monday 17th September Hexham 3rd race 13/8 Won £35.00 Brighton 2nd race 13/8 Won £22.50 Worcester 1st race 4/1 Won £40.00 Galway Lost £310 Kempton 3rd race 2/7 Lost £18.52 Loss on Day = £231.02 Tuesday 18th September Yarmouth 1st race 1/2 Won £5.00 Lingfield 1st race 6/4 Won £15.00 Redcar 3rd race 7/2 Won £110.00 Galway 1st race 8/15 Won £5.33 Kempton 4th race 13/8 Won £60.00 Profit on Day = £195.33 Wednesday 19th September Sandown 1st race 7/4 Won £17.50 Beverley 4th race 11/4 Won £150.00 Yarmouth 2nd race 2/1 Won £30.00 Naas 4th race 4/7 Lost £24.29 Kelso 1st race 6/4 Won £15.00 Profit on Day = £188.21 Thursday 20th September Yarmouth 3rd race 13/8 Won £35.00 Ayr Lost £310 Pontefract 2nd race 11/4 Won £45.00 Clonmel 1st race 11/4 Won £27.50 Chelmsford 1st race 13/8 Won £16.25 Loss on Day = -£146.25 Friday 21st September Newbury 2nd race 9/4 Won £35.00 Ayr 1st race 13/8 Won £16.25 Newton Abbot 4th race 4/1 Won £250.00 Newcastle 1st race 13/8 Won £16.25 Ballinrobe 2nd race 2/11 Lost £6.36 Dundalk Lost £310 Profit on Day = £1.14 Loss on Week = -£364.02 |
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Maybe try not doing odds on, or doing them by time of race rather than meetings, or both.
I wonder how you would fare doing 2nd favs? |
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you're heading for £160 on the fav for the Ayr Gold Cup.
one race to make or break your week ... |
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Happysandwich,
What posy stated makes sense, form is generally more reliable in the summer months June-August and one week is far too short to test any system anyway. I have to be honest i'm not sure there is viable system that will make it pay over the long term, and in yours, you are relying on bookmakers pricing and they don't always get it right. I think today is a typical example in the Ayr Gold Cup with Son Of Rest. I appreciate it's a large liability to return your £364.02 loss to O, but it's completely under-priced (it will probably hose up now i've stated that). Good luck. |
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Andrew,
I’m not suggesting anyone do it as it is but copy & paste next weeks template that I’ve put up into Word. See 20 Sep 18 14:12 post. Then tweek and publish it with their own list of variations at the top of the page on their own thread. Would be interesting if a couple done it, if only for comparison. And something better to do other than gambling.  |
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Laying Son Of Rest to win is not gambling
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Back by public demand for one day only.
The 5th race Favourite at Wolverhampton was Andrew's Lay bet for today, so I Layed it for £100. And that my friends is how the cookie crumbles. Saturday 22nd Sept Ayr 1st race 5/6 Won £8.33 Chelmsford 3rd race 8/13 Lost £5.38 Newbury 5th race 11/4 Won £290.00 Catterick 3rd Race 5/2 Won £70.00 Newmarket 4th Race 7/2 Won £280.00 Gowran Park (IRE) 1st race 4/6 Won £6.66 Wolverhampton Lost £310 Profit = £339.61 |
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"Laying Son Of Rest to win is not gambling"
Did it lose? |
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hosed up, won 4L
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@eldar
I didn’t bet on anything on this thread it was just an exercise. Read what I wrote on my first post and in the early 70’s today’s profit at £100 a point would have been £6,212.80. Putting that kind of money into prospective a new Range Rover cost £2,500. If you don’t believe me try paper trading it yourself using the template above. Instead of 5 races take a risk and double up for 4 and maybe be a little more selective with your choice of race. With a bit luck you can build up your stakes and bet in hundreds like I did. Today's results, although exceptional, prove it can be done. I know because I did it. Ayr should have been :- Ayr 4th Race Won 9/2 Won £290.00 Not Ayr 1st race 5/6 Won £8.33 Daily Profit = £621.28 |
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Happysandwich,
WD, you've recovered well. eldar 22 Sep 18 22:56 "Laying Son Of Rest to win is not gambling" Did it lose? Elder, no it didn't, but a 5/1 became a 5/2 lay so any losses would have at least been reduced. I didn't fancy it at all (even for a first 3 place) and thought it was a false favourite. I did state it was well handicapped and would love the ground, but i simply called it wrong. In mitigation i didn't lay it and backed the winner at 40/44 + the place at 5.2 if you look at my lay thread  |
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WD
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eldar,
I have to confess i was very lucky with the winner. I noticed a AYR GC thread with selections and took about 3-4 minutes looking through a few outsiders before posting mine. If the thread hadn't been up, i wouldn't have back it. |