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The Mathematical Probabilities of Winning on the Punt.
I was thinking, you have card counters, you have mathematicians in just about every sport now ever played collating data on every conceivable
facet of a game to program some small edge.
Is there mathematical probabilities of winning more on the punt?
Sure I have very good strike rates and profits, but can it be better?
I have data of about 1,500 races I have tipped fitter horses and I will bet you London to a brick, the low the top 5 fitter horses ad up the
mathematical better the chances you have of winning.
Let’s take 2 race ratings of fitter horses:
Race 1: 1-2-3-4-5 are my fitter horses, all 1-5 top weight as the handicapper has said best horses and are now rated fit.
Race 2: 10-7-3-11-15 are my fitter horses, spread out over the field and some of low quality and performance and poorer types than horses than in Race 1.
I am sure there are a set of Mathematical probabilities numbers that further increase a punters chances.
• Race 1: 1-2-3-4-5 adds up to 15
• Race 2: 10-7-3-11-15 adds up to 46.
I am positive that race 1 would return better results than race 2.
I can’t be bothered going back over 1,500 results, however I will add the 5 fitter horses up and place on the right hand side of my ICloud software prior to posting.
A pattern will form which could say:
• 15-20 win more races
• 21 – 30 win less
• 31 – 50 win few.
THE EVEREST BIG PUNT could well look at these mathematical probabilities to increase their chances when having a real go in a big value race.
All good
James
I was thinking, you have card counters, you have mathematicians in just about every sport now ever played collating data on every conceivable
facet of a game to program some small edge.
Is there mathematical probabilities of winning more on the punt?
Sure I have very good strike rates and profits, but can it be better?
I have data of about 1,500 races I have tipped fitter horses and I will bet you London to a brick, the low the top 5 fitter horses ad up the
mathematical better the chances you have of winning.
Let’s take 2 race ratings of fitter horses:
Race 1: 1-2-3-4-5 are my fitter horses, all 1-5 top weight as the handicapper has said best horses and are now rated fit.
Race 2: 10-7-3-11-15 are my fitter horses, spread out over the field and some of low quality and performance and poorer types than horses than in Race 1.
I am sure there are a set of Mathematical probabilities numbers that further increase a punters chances.
• Race 1: 1-2-3-4-5 adds up to 15
• Race 2: 10-7-3-11-15 adds up to 46.
I am positive that race 1 would return better results than race 2.
I can’t be bothered going back over 1,500 results, however I will add the 5 fitter horses up and place on the right hand side of my ICloud software prior to posting.
A pattern will form which could say:
• 15-20 win more races
• 21 – 30 win less
• 31 – 50 win few.
THE EVEREST BIG PUNT could well look at these mathematical probabilities to increase their chances when having a real go in a big value race.
All good
James
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Replies: 7
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1000/1
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More like 2/1 you will win on this race?
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Or odds on you will win.
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you on the sauce value?
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under 10/1 sp?
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Fitter horses win 92.38% of my races.
15 - 20 may be 50% 21 - 30 may be 25% 31 plus may be 17% Then I miss, that is the other 8% That may be close and yes maths shows us something significant with about 200% the chance of the 21 - 30 ratings and 300% of 31 plus ratings. Will start doing some stats. When to hold and when to fold and just about makes my fitness % ratings infaluable? James |
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15 - 20 could be as high as 90% chance of winning on this race, but only 25% of the time those numbers coming up.
Very interesting maths. James |