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26 Aug 18
09:00
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Date Joined:
10 Nov 07
Guys,
I rarely post individual threads stating 'back this' or 'lay that' (although i have an on-going one for the latter as many of you will know) but there's a 2 year old filly running this afternoon that i'm particulary sweet on in the 2TBP and win markets at a reasonable price.
Snazzy - 3.15 Beverley
A tricky 5f nursery with only 6 runners.
Snazzy is speedily bred, relatively lightly raced with only 5 starts.
Only ran in class 1 and 2 races including a couple of black type, but drops in grade today.
Won a 5f class 2 conditions stakes (12 runners) on debut cosily (after being snatched up) backed from 13/2 into 5/1 SP. Came from well off the pace, a run that showed promise for the future.
Was upped to 5f listed class next time out finishing a 1.5L 3rd of 14 to Signora Cabello who has since won a listed race, 2 x Group 2 races and was runner up in the Prix Morny last week.
Didn't show much in the 5f Group 2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot (17th of 22) although she raced on the unfavoured far side and all the pace was in the centre. Not a good run at all, but not a very bad one either (beaten 9.25L) and i think she can be forgiven for this one.
She then went for the 5f Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury where she veered left at the start, ran freely, yet still finished 6th of 25 after a slightly troubled run, staying on well and only beaten 2.25L by Ginger Nut who has been a runner-up and winner in 2 decent nurseries since.
Her run LTO was 8th of 14, beaten 4.5L by one of today runners and almost certain favourite, Princess Power. She was giving away 11 lb then, today she's 5 lb better off. Not enough to turn the deficit around of course, but she's back over 5f that will favour her and i feel the jockey change is a definite positive.
It's difficult to know where the early pace is coming from as most of them run from off it, but Snazzy has shown it once, although i feel she's probably better coming with a late run. I suspect it will be either her or Packington Lane.
Snazzy is drawn in stall 3 that's fine if she's going to lead, but personally i would rather she was in 6. Of course it all depends on how trainer/jockey plan the tactics.
Has mainly been ridden by Stevie Donohue, except on debut (David Probert) but today Ben Curtis takes the ride. I like the jockey and rate him (certainly the best in this field including Paul Hanagan) but he's one of those you rarely read headlines about and generally rides at lower class Northern tracks. Last 14 days = 24% winning strike rate and a healthy profit if you backed every one of his mounts to a level stake this season.
Races off 80 today and i feel it's a good mark.
I could have over-analysed the field, eyed something that isn't really there and got it completely wrong, but when i saw the odds late last night and vaquely remembered her name thought i would check her form and watch the video replays. If she had been around 5.0 i probably wouldn't have bothered, but i got matched higher last night and this morning (9.8, 10.0 and 10.5/3.3, 3.8 and 4.0) albeit to small amounts, but will try again. I appreciate liquidity is dire the night before and odds are all over the place.
I simply feel she's slipped into this race under the radar and punters may concentrate on the favourite Princess Power who i accept is improving quickly and on a low weight.
If my reading of the field is correct, Snazzy will stay on strongly from off the pace and finish in the front two at least, even win (she could lead of course).
If she finishes last, or close to it, then i will accept the forums daily muppet of the day award, slope away quietly and take up crochet
Good luck if you play.
I rarely post individual threads stating 'back this' or 'lay that' (although i have an on-going one for the latter as many of you will know) but there's a 2 year old filly running this afternoon that i'm particulary sweet on in the 2TBP and win markets at a reasonable price.
Snazzy - 3.15 Beverley
A tricky 5f nursery with only 6 runners.
Snazzy is speedily bred, relatively lightly raced with only 5 starts.
Only ran in class 1 and 2 races including a couple of black type, but drops in grade today.
Won a 5f class 2 conditions stakes (12 runners) on debut cosily (after being snatched up) backed from 13/2 into 5/1 SP. Came from well off the pace, a run that showed promise for the future.
Was upped to 5f listed class next time out finishing a 1.5L 3rd of 14 to Signora Cabello who has since won a listed race, 2 x Group 2 races and was runner up in the Prix Morny last week.
Didn't show much in the 5f Group 2 Queen Mary at Royal Ascot (17th of 22) although she raced on the unfavoured far side and all the pace was in the centre. Not a good run at all, but not a very bad one either (beaten 9.25L) and i think she can be forgiven for this one.
She then went for the 5f Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury where she veered left at the start, ran freely, yet still finished 6th of 25 after a slightly troubled run, staying on well and only beaten 2.25L by Ginger Nut who has been a runner-up and winner in 2 decent nurseries since.
Her run LTO was 8th of 14, beaten 4.5L by one of today runners and almost certain favourite, Princess Power. She was giving away 11 lb then, today she's 5 lb better off. Not enough to turn the deficit around of course, but she's back over 5f that will favour her and i feel the jockey change is a definite positive.
It's difficult to know where the early pace is coming from as most of them run from off it, but Snazzy has shown it once, although i feel she's probably better coming with a late run. I suspect it will be either her or Packington Lane.
Snazzy is drawn in stall 3 that's fine if she's going to lead, but personally i would rather she was in 6. Of course it all depends on how trainer/jockey plan the tactics.
Has mainly been ridden by Stevie Donohue, except on debut (David Probert) but today Ben Curtis takes the ride. I like the jockey and rate him (certainly the best in this field including Paul Hanagan) but he's one of those you rarely read headlines about and generally rides at lower class Northern tracks. Last 14 days = 24% winning strike rate and a healthy profit if you backed every one of his mounts to a level stake this season.
Races off 80 today and i feel it's a good mark.
I could have over-analysed the field, eyed something that isn't really there and got it completely wrong, but when i saw the odds late last night and vaquely remembered her name thought i would check her form and watch the video replays. If she had been around 5.0 i probably wouldn't have bothered, but i got matched higher last night and this morning (9.8, 10.0 and 10.5/3.3, 3.8 and 4.0) albeit to small amounts, but will try again. I appreciate liquidity is dire the night before and odds are all over the place.
I simply feel she's slipped into this race under the radar and punters may concentrate on the favourite Princess Power who i accept is improving quickly and on a low weight.
If my reading of the field is correct, Snazzy will stay on strongly from off the pace and finish in the front two at least, even win (she could lead of course).
If she finishes last, or close to it, then i will accept the forums daily muppet of the day award, slope away quietly and take up crochet
Good luck if you play.
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Replies: 67
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Looks to me like you have got it spot on,I would hope she misses a beat at the start,but the application of the visor might suggest she will try and make all,GL.
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Definitely looks a decent bet on the York and Newbury form - only 5/1 now.
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COULD YOU BE A TAD MORE PACIFIC WHY YOU FANCY SAID BEAST PLEASE
 GOOD LUCK SIR. CApS lOCk  |
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As two year olds improve rapidly from race to race difficult to access, looking at Atr speed ratings it looks like Big Ace,Princess Power and Rockin Roy have improved more than Snazzy, not to say she can’t catchup, interesting race, at a guess I would plump for Rockin Roy, but weight to give to others
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Good luck, Andrew.
I selected Snazzy when she ran at Royal Ascot on my notebook thread, having thought her York run wanted marking up, given she'd raced with the choke out from the outside stall and had disputed the pace throughout, and all things considered had probably done well to finish as close as she did. So fair to say it was a great disappointment to me (and to my beleaguered reader) when she didn't finish anywhere near Signora Cabello next time (albeit she might have had excuses). At least this looks an easier assignment for her today. Incidentally, the other one I noted in that York Listed race was Carrie's Vison (runs today, 4.00 Yarmouth), as she never got much daylight at all and finished with running left in her, and my opinion was she might have hit the frame had she got a clear run (still only finished 4l behind Signora Cabello), but she hasn't gone on at all in two starts since. |
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Ghost,
I deleted most of the text before i posted She's been backed since posting, but it's not necessarily a gamble. In my opinion, she was simply over-priced last night/early morning and is now trading around the odds i would have expected if i was pricing the race up. I've actually layed RR in the 2TBP market at low odds. Good luck. |
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George,
Many thanks for your post and good luck whatever you play today. |
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Below is an assesment by the traders at 'Honest Andy in Sweden' - Bookmakers you can trust, ignore the fact we only operate in the car park at Beverley
 Princess Power 13/8 Rockin Roy 11/4 Snazzy 7/2 Big Ace 7/1 Three Card Trick 8/1 Packington Lane 12/1 Female punters with a Gaelic accent get over the odds |
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Il get my frock
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best get a decent wig aswell imo
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Ghost,
I have no idea what you look like, but i'm guessing the only frock you're going to pass off as a female with is a Burqa, and even then i'd want to see some ID |
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Boris texted and said il post it to you
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6 runners 125%
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my bad had 7/2 as 3.5
118%  nice lookin price Andrew |
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My betting for top three
Princess Power 8/5 Rockin Roy 5/2 Snazzy 5/1 sustained support for Snazzy now, which demands respect |
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striding, do you have any stats for first time headgear on free-goers?
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If only George
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First time headgear on free-goers and first time headgear on horses going up in distance, not convinced by either of these!
As demonstrated by The Knot Is Tied at Beverley, stepping up half a mile in trip to 2 miles, if you think that's a source of improvement then why the need for headgear too? Result: horse nearly ended up in the adjacent field with the cows  |
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Would be an interesting fred George IMO.
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Charlie Fellowes, he's been ahead of the market with all headgear types first couple of runs with it applied.
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sustained support for Snazzy now, which demands respect
An AiS inspired forum chaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarge!!!! |
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Yep on that support my assessment, it gonna win
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1st time visor my ebb some improvement , they are due rain which wd suit your sel a bit more than fav
For the record Signora Cabello produced an outstanding time when 2nd in the group 1 good luck Andrew I will be shouting it home for you |
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Be interesting what confidence holds if this rain gets in Andrew.
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Want mind the rain. Ave done a £200 place double and feel Andrews will be finishing best up this stiff 5 11-10 a place not far behind on speed figures but track will suit and hoping bused helps it has to go close as it will deffo handle cut a tad more than fav
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you don't know it will defo handle cut mart but an opinion is fine.
Andrew got the price earlier no good jumping on for a place now |
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the fav has already won with a bit of cut
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Anyone got a spare Enigma kicking about ?
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mart everyone looks at breeding but it's a guide not a definite, you say it will handle cut (which there isn't any yet anyhow) better than the fav but the fav has won with it.
you've missed the price anyhow , no good backing them after they've been smashed with early money. |
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Hold on ive got a yew boat in the garden il go look scarey
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Andrew was on this around 9/1 and 5/2+ the place earlier.
I asked you about the race earlier and you said the market was right but now you have done Andrews (place) in a double after the price has gone even further. This is the sort of thing that gives me bothers with you. |
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The fav indeed has won on it but it’s sired rsting was not as good yes it’s always going to be a slower time but it’s was still below the track time fir that c/d with cut. Lots of horses handle dif conditions some excellent on diff conditions better than others the horse will go on tbe cut am about 99% sure of that I just think Andrews horse will be finishing best over this stiff 5 yes 11-10 not great but feel it the safest bet
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And I really hope it wins fir him 5/2 was a steel for s place I wd have smashed it st that if I had not been hung over
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Hannagans Nag taken out
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It doesn't matter what the breeding is if a horse has done it then it's done it. ie the fav.
If you want to take breeding literally then you'd have to have Rockin Roy as a decent plus IF it went with some cut. Ground not changed too much yet is now GOOD. You talk to people like they are fookin idiots sometimes mart. You talk as though you are the only one who looks at pedigrees. You wouldn't put a fraction of the time I put in on a vast array of stats variables, you simply couldn't do working as you do (unless you never slept). |
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Rain is due
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Stridy it aint worth it fella just chill.
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If u look at pedigree what was your expert anylisis befor they run regarding ground conditions stop being antagonistic I am making a valid point striding
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