Dom's Racing Daily Diary

A bit of fun, but for the rest of the flat season I'm gonna run a daily bet and lay thread, on what I think is good value bets and lays.

Bank Starting Value will be £1000.00

Wednesday 15th August


5 meetings today and the feature meeting is Salisbury with a competitive listed race. The feature race of the day features the first of my two lays today. Crystal Hope was a bit of a surprise winner when she won at Sandown in pleasing style running to a figure of 91. On that occasion she beat a pair of fair fillies in Highgarden and Give And Take. The form to the naked eye may look solid, but that race was on easy ground and Give And Take who was second that day didn't really appreciate the ground so beating William Haggas' filly 3L may appear flattering. A winner of the Musidora at York, Give And Take has since struggled back with ease in the ground in better races running figures in the mid to high nineties. Highgarden who was 3rd has been highly tried since and has not disgraced herself in listed company but has also come up short. Like Give And Take she looks a mid to high nineties filly. Neither filly ran anywhere near that level at Sandown and both conceded 6lb to the winner Crystal Hope. I think anyone judging Crystal Hope as a 3L better horse, than both Highgarden and Give And Take are doing so foolishly, but she still looks a solid 90 horse.
When she ran at Newbury she was made a warm order against Sea Of Class who had run 2nd in a Newmarket maiden and Athena who represented Aidan O'Brien's yard, but had proven hard to win with at that stage in her career and she was very much a 5 times raced maiden who had never run to higher than 85 coming into that race. Now the subsequent progression of both Sea Of Class and Athena can't be ignored, but it would be foolhardy to suggest that either ran to their subsequent levels of ability that day at Newbury. The figures suggest on this occasion that Sea Of Class ran to 103 and Athena 100, which again rated Crystal Hope 91, a figure she ran on debut. This is the most accurate likeliness of the race, and whilst Sea Of Class has improved to become an Irish Oaks filly, Athena has remained a nice filly but her win in a group 1 in America is hard to ascertain what she actually achieved and has been beaten since. I have Athena a 109 rated now on figures, 4lb below her official mark, but Sea Of Class is obviously higher being that she is a classic winner.
I think it is dangerous to get carried away with the well beaten 3rd Crystal Hope and what it may imply she has achieved. She has achieved two figures of 91 this season, and regardless to what those who have finished around her since, they have proven their improvement, whilst hers is only possible improvement.
Since that Newbury run she has had a couple of small problems, mainly with a knee infection, but her work at home has not been that of a group filly in waiting. Regular work companion Sharp Practice has been on the whole disappointing and on the 4th August, the Queens filly galloped comfortably better than Crystal Hope in an 8f gallop.
Crystal Hope also takes a massive step up in class here, officially rated 92, one could say she was fairly treated or accurately treated to go into a valuable fillies handicap, where her mark if capable of improvement would make her a strong challenger but instead she finds herself running in a competitive listed race against a number of more proven types.
Another concern for me would be her liking for ease in the ground, and for all the ground isn't fast at Salisbury, it is good ground and drying, which is a slight negative.
Her homework, absence and basically her inexperience are other negative factors and I think she is very poorly positioned in the market.
Promising Run is a proven Group race performer and should appreciate this trip, especially with the front running Chain Of Daisies likely to give her a tow into the race as well. Chain Of Daisies has to be respected,  winning this in 2016, she should get the run of the race here today with little competition for the lead and she is the top rated in this by some way and with her penalty for winning a listed race now expired, this looks a good opening.
Pleasant Surprise, Mia Tesoro and Billsden Bless have all achieved far greater figures than the Stoute filly and for all they have to give her weight due to her 3yo allowance, she is already more than 8lb inferior to these on figures.
Savaanah is another who could have her measure, rated the same, she is more experienced and has been running solidly to her mark in handicaps. For me her and Savaanah have a very similar level of ability on what they have achieved and the difference  in price is stupid, the fact Crystal Hope is 100/30 and Savaanah is 8/1 suggests to me the Stoute filly is very under priced.

At 4.8 I can't lay her too big, but I think there is plenty to take her on with and she has to improve more than any horse in the race to win and with that in mind the price is all wrong. I actually think whilst she may run okay, her work at home is a big worry and the drying ground also.
I like Promising Run who will benefit from the strong pace and drops in class here. She handles the ground and has been crying out for 10f. She has the best back class in the race and for me is the most likely winner of the race, unless the Candy filly gets a soft lead and can bounce back to the form she was showing 12-18 months ago.
No matter how you view the race Crystal Hope has to be a lay, and I am laying her for £50 in the win market @ 4.8, and I am also laying her in the 2 horses to be placed market at 2.66 for £50.  I also feel I can't let Promising Run, run loose and I will be backing her to win for £10 @ 4.8.

This is my main race view of the day, but there are a couple of other things of interest today.

Jacbequick (3.00 Beverley) is a course specialist but he definitely prefers 8-10f than the 7f he is over today and whilst he won well in the end at Redcar last time, he was all out and needed every inch of the 10f. His form has also regressed ratings wise throughout the last few months and for me whilst he is in an average claimer today, Don'tgiveuponbob, Justice Pleasing and Jack Nevison are all possibles to have too much speed for him. Even former stablemate Major Crispies is not without a chance. At 2.62 I would be happy to lay him for £25.00 as it's not a strong enough race to go full lay, but I feel he is vulnerable over this trip and may find one has too much toe for him.

Betting wise today is tricky, but I am having a couple of small bets.

Our Little Pony (5.00 Beverley) will be suited to this stiffer track today and having won well two runs back she ran a solid race in a far stronger race than this last time. Her 7lb claimer gets on well with her and there is a lot of pace in this race which will suit this filly down to the ground. At 3.65 in the win market and 1.57 in the place market, I am happy to have a small £20 Win and £45 Place as cover.

The better of my two bets today comes from Gowran Park. Running in the 6.40, Dermot Weld's Espoir D'Soleil has been running well but this drop in class will definitely suit. Things didn't really go to plan behind the well handicapped at the time Lucius Tiberius when down the field on her latest start but the same problem has been found in her last two races and that is steadily run races. She gets outpaced and then runs on. The application of a Visor will definitely help in that regard and should sharpen her up early, whilst Gowran's galloping track will suit better than the tight turns of Leopardstown. Having run to 90 at the Curragh on her seasonal bow, she is definitely well treated off 85 still and I think the Visor, return to a galloping track, some ease in the ground and a drop in class are all positive factors today. The Weld horses are also in good form and this filly who's last three runs have come in 0-105, 0-100 and 0-105 company can take advantage of a massive drop in class into 0-85 company here against horses who all have to improve, to prove they are better than this grade, whilst she has already proven herself at a higher level both earlier this season and also last season when she placed behind the classy Pincheck and also Mustajeer in valuable Naas handicaps running to 89 and 90 respectively. I think she is worth £25 Win @ 4.0 and £100 in the four horses to place at 1.40.

Those complete my bets for today and good luck if you play.