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Is The Tide Turning At Ballydoyle ?
Every day we look at racing we see numerous short priced horses in Irish maiden's mainly from Ballydoyle. For the 3rd time in the last 5 weeks, the beautifully bred Mount Tabora earned the BF tag on his profile and raised the question of how good are the Ballydoyle 2yos and 3yo's this year.
In terms of the 3yo's, with only a 2000 Guineas, & Oaks win from 12 classics this season, the Coolmore supremacy seems to be easing and seldom does a void come in Royal Ascot 2yo races from the Kings of Cashel, Tipperary! Fast forward a couple of weeks and Newmarket's July meeting ended with a last and second last in the July Stakes, a 14L 4th in the Cherry Hinton, and a 3.5L distant 2nd in the Superlative Stakes. That's 8 leading 2yo races this season at Newmarket and Ascot and not one winner trained by A P O'Brien.
In fact the list of disappointment continued into yesterday at The Curragh where Just Wonderful and Fantasy were 3rd and 5th in the Angelsey Stakes, a race they have farmed over the years.
O'Brien whose Sergei Prokofiev, Land Force and Fairyland all have listed / group winning 2yo form, were beaten at Ascot and whilst the latter had excuses the crop of 2018 look a far cry from that of previous years and here we are sat asking that for all the 2018 Classic Crop are underperforming, could we yet see a Classic blank in 2019 ! Only time will tell but yesterday, those fears were somewhat confirmed as 11 2yo's worked with lead horses in what were meant to be telling 6 to 8f gallops with some of the promising 2yo's.
Conquest a 62 rated 3yo Galileo filly was the first lead horse out as she led unraced fillies, Enticed and Pink Dogwood. Partnered by Wayne Lordan Pink Dogwood was extremely green and will have at least learned something from the gallop, but under Seamie Heffernan there was no excuses for the well bred Enticed who came under a hand ride to get within 1/2L of a 62 rated lead horse. If Aidan was looking for 1000 Guineas clues, it's unlikely they've been answered here.
Following straight up were considered the main group. Three very exciting 2yo colts who have been raved about at home and much was expected. They worked 7f with Amedeo Modigliani. The one time Guineas and Derby favoruite has been plagued with injury so how much of his ability he retains remains to be answered but in leading the three most exciting colts in the Ballydoyle barn, it was nice to see him back one way or another. He is set to run at the end of August and he worked nicely, leading throughout out and whilst not hard ridden he maintained his supremacy over all bar one. If there is a glistening light in the Classic pretenders, it emerged in the shape of Blenheim Palace. An athletic attractive colt, he moved nicely under Donnacha in his work and challenged his lead throughout the final stages of the gallop, punched out just over a length in front of his lead, he looks the shining light on what is a dull crop. 3/4L adrift of the lead was the Australia Colt, Sydney Opera House. Expected to be Derby horse he looked the one pace to the naked eye. Last in the gallop and partnered by Ryan Moore was Giottino. The son of Scat Daddy had long been hyped as the real deal in his work with lesser 2yo's and had impressed when galloping all over Mount Tabora in recent weeks, but in this gallop he struggled and the bubble was well and truly burst. A dejected looking O'Brien and Moore stood in discussion as the first group were washed off awaiting the next set of gallopers.
With 7 worked and 8 to go, it was clear that only the fact Amedeo Modigliani had completed his first serious piece of work and Blenheim Palace worked well could be deemed as positives but the Ballydoyle "beasts" were still holding a few trump cards.
When it comes to older horses at Ballydoyle, few have led more gallops than Capri and whilst he had a setback which saw him miss Ascot, he was back to the track looking well. Working over 8f he led what was deemed the yards main Derby prospect for next season. Japan is exciting as it comes in the Ballydoyle 2yo ranks and the unraced Galileo colt matched Capri toe to toe upsides in the 8f work out. Partnered by Ryan Moore, and Donnacha on Capri, there appeared to be a rye smile from Aidan as he felt maybe there was a colt that could give some kind of classic aspiration, in what is feared an expensive crop of flop for 2018.
Tow groups of three followed and in an all 2yo group, National Guard led 2 unarced colts over 7f. He set a fair standard to aim at, but it was surprising that despite his experience that under his rider he came out on top. Ending the gallop 1L in front of San Andreas and a further 1/2L in front of Ten Sovereigns you would have been excused for being somewhat disappointed but the look on those watching on, was that of disbelief that the stars in the yard were far from shining bright.
After a final changeover Ryan Moore got aboard Frosty. The grey filly is a well bred and well built filly and there had certainly been talk on the rumour mill that she was special. Aidan spent a couple of laps of the paddock discussing the filly with Ryan, deep in converse as Donnacha was legged up on Galileo filly Invitation who has also been worded as a smart type. Wayne Lordan adopted his lead jockey role on an 83 rated 3yo called Darkness Falls. It was hoped there would be a spark from the final pair of fillies but Ryan had to get down and get busy with his mount to stay upsides a lead horse who appeared to be full of running in the 7f gallop. More disappointing was although not hard ridden, Invitation could only get within 2L.
O'Brien in the centre spoke for 3 minutes with Ryan, Donnacha, Seamie and Wayne, but this did not look the jubilant O'Brien that celebrated US Navy Flag's July Cup win, or the delights in America 2 weeks ago. This was a tall concerned figure watching his star 2yo's disappoint.
They've been getting beat on debut this season and the constant disappointments of Cardini, Cape Of Good Hope, Mount Tabora, Mount Everest, The Irish Rover, U S S Michigan, South Pacific and Sovereign leave many questions to be answered about the riches being spent on what is turning out to be a year of disappointment and you can add the well regarded Mona Lisa's Smile to that group after today.
Even though the 3yo's haven't fully delivered this year, and been turned over in 83% of the domestic classics, they were still way and above the best in the 2yo brigade last season, but after a disappointing morning on the gallops the racing that proceeded in the afternoon would hardly bring a smile to O'Brien's face, as he went through the card without a single winner, and had hotpots in Magic Wand, Just Glamorous, St Patrick's Day and Mount Tabora all turned over.
Today the Cashel handler is back at the Curragh and again dominating the betting.
The feature race of the day is the 3.30 where September and Magical both return from setbacks, although Magical has at least been seen this season. Priced at 5/4 and 9/4 they dominate the market but Magical is better with cut in the ground and September has only had 3 gallops at home and her work riders feel she wants 10-12f.
It gets you looking at the race for value and there are two possibles. Damselfly could emerge a shock winner of this, and Joseph's filly may become yet another underrated horse to lower the colours of his fathers talking horses this season, Mainly campaigned over further, her run behind Turret Rocks doesn't read too badly now and last time she met a lot of trouble in running and was only beaten 4L at the death. She has shaped in all her races over 6 and 7f that she is crying out for a mile plus and even last time when interfered with she stayed on smartly and was not beaten far at the finish.
If you take the big two out the betting, and race, only Damselfly, I'm So Fancy and Ship Of Dreams have ever posted figures above 100, and the latter was fortunate to beat Damselfly last time out and the former gives 9lb to the 3yo's in the race.
There is also a case to be made for Sarrocchi who despite mainly being used as a lead horse (and may be again today) she has bits and pieces of form which give her a chance in this race.
Betfair Sportsbook have a great market, they are offering prices without September and Magical, the direct link is below and you click on the without tab;
https://www.betfair.com/sport/horse-racing/meeting?marketId=924.147153635&exchangeWinMarketId=1.145805561&eventId=28809806&raceTime=1532269800000&dayToSearch=20180722
I think at 17/2 with 2 places ew about, Damselfly is great value to basically be in the 4 with the big two ! I am advising an Each way. I am also having a Saver on Sarrocchi to win at 100/30 without the fav.
It's one of those races where I want to avoid betting the front two and wouldn't lay them either, but there is this value in the race.
If Aidan is going to have something to cheer about today, it's likely to come later on the card, where the buzz at the yard surrounds Cliffs Of Dooneen (4.40). He was very green on debut but done well to win, and my contacts have been on telling me to back this today. This is the one runner of the yards, they are confident about today and it's worked like a 100+ rated horse at home with the likes of Giuseppe Garibaldi and Cypress Creek. Off 97 with his 3yo allowance he is interesting in today's race and they are aiming him at big staying races in the future. Win bet advised.
Every day we look at racing we see numerous short priced horses in Irish maiden's mainly from Ballydoyle. For the 3rd time in the last 5 weeks, the beautifully bred Mount Tabora earned the BF tag on his profile and raised the question of how good are the Ballydoyle 2yos and 3yo's this year.
In terms of the 3yo's, with only a 2000 Guineas, & Oaks win from 12 classics this season, the Coolmore supremacy seems to be easing and seldom does a void come in Royal Ascot 2yo races from the Kings of Cashel, Tipperary! Fast forward a couple of weeks and Newmarket's July meeting ended with a last and second last in the July Stakes, a 14L 4th in the Cherry Hinton, and a 3.5L distant 2nd in the Superlative Stakes. That's 8 leading 2yo races this season at Newmarket and Ascot and not one winner trained by A P O'Brien.
In fact the list of disappointment continued into yesterday at The Curragh where Just Wonderful and Fantasy were 3rd and 5th in the Angelsey Stakes, a race they have farmed over the years.
O'Brien whose Sergei Prokofiev, Land Force and Fairyland all have listed / group winning 2yo form, were beaten at Ascot and whilst the latter had excuses the crop of 2018 look a far cry from that of previous years and here we are sat asking that for all the 2018 Classic Crop are underperforming, could we yet see a Classic blank in 2019 ! Only time will tell but yesterday, those fears were somewhat confirmed as 11 2yo's worked with lead horses in what were meant to be telling 6 to 8f gallops with some of the promising 2yo's.
Conquest a 62 rated 3yo Galileo filly was the first lead horse out as she led unraced fillies, Enticed and Pink Dogwood. Partnered by Wayne Lordan Pink Dogwood was extremely green and will have at least learned something from the gallop, but under Seamie Heffernan there was no excuses for the well bred Enticed who came under a hand ride to get within 1/2L of a 62 rated lead horse. If Aidan was looking for 1000 Guineas clues, it's unlikely they've been answered here.
Following straight up were considered the main group. Three very exciting 2yo colts who have been raved about at home and much was expected. They worked 7f with Amedeo Modigliani. The one time Guineas and Derby favoruite has been plagued with injury so how much of his ability he retains remains to be answered but in leading the three most exciting colts in the Ballydoyle barn, it was nice to see him back one way or another. He is set to run at the end of August and he worked nicely, leading throughout out and whilst not hard ridden he maintained his supremacy over all bar one. If there is a glistening light in the Classic pretenders, it emerged in the shape of Blenheim Palace. An athletic attractive colt, he moved nicely under Donnacha in his work and challenged his lead throughout the final stages of the gallop, punched out just over a length in front of his lead, he looks the shining light on what is a dull crop. 3/4L adrift of the lead was the Australia Colt, Sydney Opera House. Expected to be Derby horse he looked the one pace to the naked eye. Last in the gallop and partnered by Ryan Moore was Giottino. The son of Scat Daddy had long been hyped as the real deal in his work with lesser 2yo's and had impressed when galloping all over Mount Tabora in recent weeks, but in this gallop he struggled and the bubble was well and truly burst. A dejected looking O'Brien and Moore stood in discussion as the first group were washed off awaiting the next set of gallopers.
With 7 worked and 8 to go, it was clear that only the fact Amedeo Modigliani had completed his first serious piece of work and Blenheim Palace worked well could be deemed as positives but the Ballydoyle "beasts" were still holding a few trump cards.
When it comes to older horses at Ballydoyle, few have led more gallops than Capri and whilst he had a setback which saw him miss Ascot, he was back to the track looking well. Working over 8f he led what was deemed the yards main Derby prospect for next season. Japan is exciting as it comes in the Ballydoyle 2yo ranks and the unraced Galileo colt matched Capri toe to toe upsides in the 8f work out. Partnered by Ryan Moore, and Donnacha on Capri, there appeared to be a rye smile from Aidan as he felt maybe there was a colt that could give some kind of classic aspiration, in what is feared an expensive crop of flop for 2018.
Tow groups of three followed and in an all 2yo group, National Guard led 2 unarced colts over 7f. He set a fair standard to aim at, but it was surprising that despite his experience that under his rider he came out on top. Ending the gallop 1L in front of San Andreas and a further 1/2L in front of Ten Sovereigns you would have been excused for being somewhat disappointed but the look on those watching on, was that of disbelief that the stars in the yard were far from shining bright.
After a final changeover Ryan Moore got aboard Frosty. The grey filly is a well bred and well built filly and there had certainly been talk on the rumour mill that she was special. Aidan spent a couple of laps of the paddock discussing the filly with Ryan, deep in converse as Donnacha was legged up on Galileo filly Invitation who has also been worded as a smart type. Wayne Lordan adopted his lead jockey role on an 83 rated 3yo called Darkness Falls. It was hoped there would be a spark from the final pair of fillies but Ryan had to get down and get busy with his mount to stay upsides a lead horse who appeared to be full of running in the 7f gallop. More disappointing was although not hard ridden, Invitation could only get within 2L.
O'Brien in the centre spoke for 3 minutes with Ryan, Donnacha, Seamie and Wayne, but this did not look the jubilant O'Brien that celebrated US Navy Flag's July Cup win, or the delights in America 2 weeks ago. This was a tall concerned figure watching his star 2yo's disappoint.
They've been getting beat on debut this season and the constant disappointments of Cardini, Cape Of Good Hope, Mount Tabora, Mount Everest, The Irish Rover, U S S Michigan, South Pacific and Sovereign leave many questions to be answered about the riches being spent on what is turning out to be a year of disappointment and you can add the well regarded Mona Lisa's Smile to that group after today.
Even though the 3yo's haven't fully delivered this year, and been turned over in 83% of the domestic classics, they were still way and above the best in the 2yo brigade last season, but after a disappointing morning on the gallops the racing that proceeded in the afternoon would hardly bring a smile to O'Brien's face, as he went through the card without a single winner, and had hotpots in Magic Wand, Just Glamorous, St Patrick's Day and Mount Tabora all turned over.
Today the Cashel handler is back at the Curragh and again dominating the betting.
The feature race of the day is the 3.30 where September and Magical both return from setbacks, although Magical has at least been seen this season. Priced at 5/4 and 9/4 they dominate the market but Magical is better with cut in the ground and September has only had 3 gallops at home and her work riders feel she wants 10-12f.
It gets you looking at the race for value and there are two possibles. Damselfly could emerge a shock winner of this, and Joseph's filly may become yet another underrated horse to lower the colours of his fathers talking horses this season, Mainly campaigned over further, her run behind Turret Rocks doesn't read too badly now and last time she met a lot of trouble in running and was only beaten 4L at the death. She has shaped in all her races over 6 and 7f that she is crying out for a mile plus and even last time when interfered with she stayed on smartly and was not beaten far at the finish.
If you take the big two out the betting, and race, only Damselfly, I'm So Fancy and Ship Of Dreams have ever posted figures above 100, and the latter was fortunate to beat Damselfly last time out and the former gives 9lb to the 3yo's in the race.
There is also a case to be made for Sarrocchi who despite mainly being used as a lead horse (and may be again today) she has bits and pieces of form which give her a chance in this race.
Betfair Sportsbook have a great market, they are offering prices without September and Magical, the direct link is below and you click on the without tab;
https://www.betfair.com/sport/horse-racing/meeting?marketId=924.147153635&exchangeWinMarketId=1.145805561&eventId=28809806&raceTime=1532269800000&dayToSearch=20180722
I think at 17/2 with 2 places ew about, Damselfly is great value to basically be in the 4 with the big two ! I am advising an Each way. I am also having a Saver on Sarrocchi to win at 100/30 without the fav.
It's one of those races where I want to avoid betting the front two and wouldn't lay them either, but there is this value in the race.
If Aidan is going to have something to cheer about today, it's likely to come later on the card, where the buzz at the yard surrounds Cliffs Of Dooneen (4.40). He was very green on debut but done well to win, and my contacts have been on telling me to back this today. This is the one runner of the yards, they are confident about today and it's worked like a 100+ rated horse at home with the likes of Giuseppe Garibaldi and Cypress Creek. Off 97 with his 3yo allowance he is interesting in today's race and they are aiming him at big staying races in the future. Win bet advised.
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Cliffs Of Dooneen looks promising,only negative a young horse against older ones, although poor elders, if any good should win easily
hes horses cost over a million each he should win races
an excuse for magic wand, thank fook for that the shareholders i mean breeders were getting worried, 
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