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9/2 ew
bolted in under just hands and heels.
With 3 rank outsiders in the race should at least get placed and money back near enough.
Here's hopeing that there arent any non runners.
bolted in under just hands and heels.
With 3 rank outsiders in the race should at least get placed and money back near enough.
Here's hopeing that there arent any non runners.
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Has to give a lot of weight to two horses who've already recorded higher figures, booked for 3rd at best.
Has to give a lot of weight to two horses who've already recorded higher figures, booked for 3rd at best.
Your analysis Domino gives me even more hope after seeing your latest tips and views on horses here
No worries, glad you will be giving me more money in the win market. My lays are sat up nicely if you want to take some and add to my piggy bank :)
im not giving anyone win money in the win market.
I have backed it ew at 9/2 (so obv with a bookies) bog etc.
I have backed it ew at 9/2 (so obv with a bookies) bog etc.
If your lays are up there is only £12 above 4/1 in win market and nothing bigger than 5.3.
I can see you are laying big.
I can see you are laying big.
ohhh and next amount is £2 at 4.6
so you are aying it big time i see
so you are aying it big time i see
For all the horse was impressive last time, the handicapper took the view, he couldn't assess the race well enough to give the horse a handicap mark.
He took advantage of his main market rival going a suicidal gallop with another horse on a stiff turning track, and he stayed on past horses going nowhere.
Yes he won well, but you can be sure that the 2nd who was running on empty 1f out, has run below par and the 3rd who he beat 4L (roughly 8lb) had never previously ran above 70. The 4th horse was extremely green and on debut.
By the figures, the winner ran to 85 but it's hard to note, if he has actually achieved that. It should also be noted that the turning stiff 7.5f where there was a flat out gallop played into his strengths. The horse showed a good turn of foot and there was little in his run which was screaming out, step up in trip, so stepping up to 8f on an easy track is still a new ask and will he settle as well in a slower run race, on a downhill track where horses that are dropped in often over race.
For all Borodin stepped up on his debut to win next time, he beat a very exposed 74 rated horse in doing so, and the time was not great. The 5th has since been well held (running to 60) and the 2nd has been well beaten off 76 and 75 in handicaps since that run, running to around 55.
This for me suggests whilst visually impressive at Beverley you have to proceed with caution and wonder what has the winner actually achieved.
He ran a good figure on debut (83) in a race which has worked out well, but rating him similar second time out, with the number of factors that came of that race is dangerous.
Today he has to concede 16lb to History Writer who is a progressive horse who ran 87 last time chasing home the highly regraded Ibraz, who won a valuable handicap at Sandown next time out. The 3rd Infrastructure is a handicap winner off 83, whilst the 4th ran a decent fourth in a valuable handicap at Newmarket last week. This form is solid, on a left handed galloping track. History Writer also ran in a 7f maiden at Newmarket prior to that which worked out very well. His 87 lats time sets the standard and in receipt of 16lb he should be far too good for Elerfaan.
Borodin who was some 6L behind your selection on debut was very green but stepped up beating an exposed 74 rated horse last time with some authority. He is open to improvement again and meets your horse on the same terms he did on debut, but having stepped up markedly for that run.
Kevin Ryan's New Show also can't be discounted, an impressive Ayr maiden winner last year running to 85, he was chucked into listed company in the spring when the yards horses weren't running well. He still ran to 75 in the process but was looked after when his chance had gone. When you consider what Mildenburger, Kew Garden's and Dark Acclaim have achieved since, even his remote 5th of 8, is not bad in the context of this race and he gets 9lb from Elerfaan.
For me on form both New Show and History Writer look potentially 90+ horses and getting weight from Elerfaan it's hard to see him beating them. There is also grounds to suggest that Borodin may improve past him and will be more of a danger today than he was on debut.
The race does look between these four horses, but whilst Elerfaan ran well on debut, his win whilst visually impressive last time (aside of Borodin's win next time), the form looks suspect and the way the race was ran, it pretty much fell into his lap.
He takes on far stronger opposition today, on a very different track, and up in trip against horses who have shown ability at slightly longer trips so his stamina will be tested today. He also may find he wont have the luxury to switch off as easy today as the gallop wont be so frenetic (he was keen on debut off a medium gallop).
I think 9/2 is a fair reflection of his task at hand and agree him and Borodin should be close today. But I can't see on any grounds with form to find and giving weight away, he can beat the 2, 3yo's who have already shown better form, and therefore you rely on them underperforming to give you any better than 3rd place.
You call it a good ew, but we all know that one of the rags will be a non runner making it 2 places, and even if that doesn't happen he's far from a given to get 3rd ahead of Borodin and there is every chance he could run 4th and run well.
At 9/2 each way you still lose money. Albeit 5% of your stake.
He is in my book a very safe win market lay, as of the main 4 he has the most questions to answer and the 3rd most to do on form and at around 6.0 he is a good value lay.
He took advantage of his main market rival going a suicidal gallop with another horse on a stiff turning track, and he stayed on past horses going nowhere.
Yes he won well, but you can be sure that the 2nd who was running on empty 1f out, has run below par and the 3rd who he beat 4L (roughly 8lb) had never previously ran above 70. The 4th horse was extremely green and on debut.
By the figures, the winner ran to 85 but it's hard to note, if he has actually achieved that. It should also be noted that the turning stiff 7.5f where there was a flat out gallop played into his strengths. The horse showed a good turn of foot and there was little in his run which was screaming out, step up in trip, so stepping up to 8f on an easy track is still a new ask and will he settle as well in a slower run race, on a downhill track where horses that are dropped in often over race.
For all Borodin stepped up on his debut to win next time, he beat a very exposed 74 rated horse in doing so, and the time was not great. The 5th has since been well held (running to 60) and the 2nd has been well beaten off 76 and 75 in handicaps since that run, running to around 55.
This for me suggests whilst visually impressive at Beverley you have to proceed with caution and wonder what has the winner actually achieved.
He ran a good figure on debut (83) in a race which has worked out well, but rating him similar second time out, with the number of factors that came of that race is dangerous.
Today he has to concede 16lb to History Writer who is a progressive horse who ran 87 last time chasing home the highly regraded Ibraz, who won a valuable handicap at Sandown next time out. The 3rd Infrastructure is a handicap winner off 83, whilst the 4th ran a decent fourth in a valuable handicap at Newmarket last week. This form is solid, on a left handed galloping track. History Writer also ran in a 7f maiden at Newmarket prior to that which worked out very well. His 87 lats time sets the standard and in receipt of 16lb he should be far too good for Elerfaan.
Borodin who was some 6L behind your selection on debut was very green but stepped up beating an exposed 74 rated horse last time with some authority. He is open to improvement again and meets your horse on the same terms he did on debut, but having stepped up markedly for that run.
Kevin Ryan's New Show also can't be discounted, an impressive Ayr maiden winner last year running to 85, he was chucked into listed company in the spring when the yards horses weren't running well. He still ran to 75 in the process but was looked after when his chance had gone. When you consider what Mildenburger, Kew Garden's and Dark Acclaim have achieved since, even his remote 5th of 8, is not bad in the context of this race and he gets 9lb from Elerfaan.
For me on form both New Show and History Writer look potentially 90+ horses and getting weight from Elerfaan it's hard to see him beating them. There is also grounds to suggest that Borodin may improve past him and will be more of a danger today than he was on debut.
The race does look between these four horses, but whilst Elerfaan ran well on debut, his win whilst visually impressive last time (aside of Borodin's win next time), the form looks suspect and the way the race was ran, it pretty much fell into his lap.
He takes on far stronger opposition today, on a very different track, and up in trip against horses who have shown ability at slightly longer trips so his stamina will be tested today. He also may find he wont have the luxury to switch off as easy today as the gallop wont be so frenetic (he was keen on debut off a medium gallop).
I think 9/2 is a fair reflection of his task at hand and agree him and Borodin should be close today. But I can't see on any grounds with form to find and giving weight away, he can beat the 2, 3yo's who have already shown better form, and therefore you rely on them underperforming to give you any better than 3rd place.
You call it a good ew, but we all know that one of the rags will be a non runner making it 2 places, and even if that doesn't happen he's far from a given to get 3rd ahead of Borodin and there is every chance he could run 4th and run well.
At 9/2 each way you still lose money. Albeit 5% of your stake.
He is in my book a very safe win market lay, as of the main 4 he has the most questions to answer and the 3rd most to do on form and at around 6.0 he is a good value lay.
Just little £3 and £5 lays up for me mate. I try not to put bigger lays up as find can push prices out if looks negative. I'm happy to sit there and lay for £3-5, 20-40 times throughout the day, than trying to go with a 100 or 200 lay first thing when the market lacks liquidity.
DOM, small acorns etc.
the way to go.
I have History Writer as my Competition nap so will lay one of the others--always closer to kick-off
when the clouds have cleared away.
New Show?? perhaps
the way to go.
I have History Writer as my Competition nap so will lay one of the others--always closer to kick-off
when the clouds have cleared away.New Show?? perhaps
For me on figures, History Writer and New Show are very well in, with the weight allowances and can't see anything winning bar those two, perhaps Borodin, but he needs to improve again from his last run at least 7lb. For me Elerfaan is a cracking lay, it has loads to find on these terms and the form of his last run is actually suspect too.
Domino--how about starting a lay thread with Elerfaan as your first pick. DOMINO'S LAY THREAD
See how it goes as you have a better clue than some of us
no big write-ups necessary just a few guidelines.
would be useful and interesting Ta
See how it goes as you have a better clue than some of us
no big write-ups necessary just a few guidelines.
would be useful and interesting Ta
Now just the two places, horses it beat last time where mince except the fav (second) who pulled like stink.
@Madrigal
Ha, I'm not the person to carry Andrew's mantle, I don't lay horses as short as he does often. Made a nice few quid there. Layed in win and 2 place market, and backed 1st and 3rd. Bit gutted I layed it earlier on though around the 5.4-6.0 mark, as he came into about 4.3 at the off.
Ha, I'm not the person to carry Andrew's mantle, I don't lay horses as short as he does often. Made a nice few quid there. Layed in win and 2 place market, and backed 1st and 3rd. Bit gutted I layed it earlier on though around the 5.4-6.0 mark, as he came into about 4.3 at the off.
where does Ms Austerfield get all her dosh from, had loads in training for years ..
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