Ascot 2yo Races - The Albany

Good Luck dom although I will be sticking with Just Wonderful.

I don't know what price they will go off, but I'll run the July Course stark boll ock naked, if Just Wonderful beats Fairyland. I am only worried of 2 horses in the race (La Pelosa and Octave), I would be amazed if Just Wonderful got close enough to Fairyland to sniff her tail !

I posted this about Fairylnad on a Van Beethoven thread

Andrew in Sweden
26 May 18 15:22 

.... the winner looked decent today.

Andrew in Sweden   
26 May 18 15:25

Could be correct ref the Albany, possibly the best 2 year old filly seen so far.

I was impressed with Fairyland LTO and even thinking of making the favourite my lay of the day later. I've already backed Fairyland and layed the favourite. Good luck to all that play.

Fair enough dom if you are that confident I am going to roll in with you......Good Luck Buddy.

Well Just Wonderful is 4-6L behind her at home and Fairyland is not only the best filly in the yard, but she's too good for the fillies that she has to work with the colts. I've only seen 2 colts work as well as her at home, and neither have run yet but they are 7f types. She destroyed Sergei P in her pre Ascot gallop and she is definitely the first string for this. I will be astonished if she loses to be honest, for me she is the real deal in the fillies department and I think she will end up fav for the 1000 Guineas next season. I would actually be disappointed if she doesn't win this be at least 2L.

Not saying you are wrong but if you were that confident why have you waited until now to back Fairyland for the 1000? Surely bigger prices were available?

If you were backing Just Wonderful she is entitled to progress from that first run and although she might have been on the favoured side she had to race alone for a considerable period.

If Fairyland is known to be significantly better at home (obviously that doesn't always translate) surely she would be favourite or much closer in the market?

Just Wonderful also has the much more appealing pedigree in terms of staying further as well. Even if she was beaten at 6 furlongs it would give hope that she could turn that around.

@Differentdrum

I had a price about her after she won last time, it was 25/1, She was not priced up before then.

Regarding prices, it never ceases to amaze me, everyone I know connected to the yard backed her to beat Van Beethoven last time, yet she went off a biggish price. Also the same re Kew Garden's earlier in the week, was always the yards number one, but went off decent price. If I was a bookmaker knowing Fairyland was better, I too would price up Just Wonderful shorter. Yes you will take shrewd punters bets, but any big punters prob wont be able to get on with you, but you'll get the normal everyday punter who is not in the know or any idea backing JW blind as she has RM on, and appears to be the yards number one.

I don't agree with what you say about JW maiden win either. JW had plenty to race with, she tracked the pace on the far side chasing Fantasy (well held by the 2nd since) and only headed Sparklenjoy inside the final 300m. She kept on, whilst Lethal Promise on the near side, had nothing really to race with and never saw a horse on the near side until Gossamer Wings flashed home (still only got within 1.5L of her).

Personally JW had more to race with than the 2nd, and the 3rd the penny dropped too late. Had the second had something to race with I would have said she would have won that day. She has since come out and beaten Fantasy by 6.5L, who whilst beaten 8L that day, was hampered and eased right down.

I think the 2nd and 3rd have improved a lot and were on the unfavoured side at the Curragh and it's what they have done since which makes JW look decent. Afterall she has only ran to 84 on debut, and whilst the 2nd and 3rd have subsequently ran to 95 and 91, even those two efforts are 10lb short of what Fairyland has already achieved.

thought just wonderful was very visually impressive on her debut, burst away from her group on the far side.

also feel that the ward filly is overpriced now.

but agree that fairyland has a good chance.

obviously i respect domino after he put up shang shang shang earlier in the week, guy seems to have his ear to the ground, although not sure why he gives out this info for free

must admit tempted to lump on fairyland now

Not sure about this analysis:

Just Wonderful was also a shade lucky to beat Gossamer Wings that day, given she was slowly away, held up and raced on the worse side of the course, so her win was flattered a shade.

really? It looked like just wonderful was running on the worse side of the course, not gossamer wings, given that just wonderful beat her rivals on that side by several lengths.

also O'briens are well known for coming on a ton from their first runs, so gossamer wings had an advantage over just wonderful in that sense.

Watch the races from that day, far side was the place to be.

Gossamer may have had a run, but she hadn't had a run.

JW had company the whole way, the second never and the 3rd tbh was never put in the race.

Horses may improve, but they don't improve 20lb.

You can convince yourself all you want JW is a good filly and is going to improve 20lb to win this, but you wont convince me and no matter how much you try and convince yourself, I'm 99.99% confident anyone backing JW will do their dough.

I love a guy that puts his head on the Chopping Block.

Thanks Acey, but I'm happily married with kids and not into men hahaha

I don't care whether I convince you or not.

saying you're 99.9 percent certain is utter bilge and you know it. are you saying you'd lay her at 1000-1?

never read so much dross in my life.

Don't worry dom I am happily Married Pal.

There are all kinds of 'Could be anythings' in here so, while Fairy looks the best, can't see playing in a field like this except on top of 'shots

in exactas. And don't overlook Ward's. She ran 22.1 46.2 and 53.0 for 4 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Flew out of gate, soon well clear. Hand ridden,

and although slowing at the finish should be even better now and could handle the extra dist. Given that firm turf is usually faster than dirt

and that her race was around a bend she could well run 3 seconds faster than Fairy's time. Having said that Fairy won comfortably and as far as

Stillwater Cove is concerned stamina is a question mark. But hey, Ward/Rosario 2yof.....must include her.

22-1 looks huge on here roggrain. think the six furlong record of wesley's puts people off, but she's bred to want further than five furlongs.

No why would I lay her at 1000/1 ?

I would definitely lay her at 3.65 though !

However you view the race, she should not be favourite on any book. The fact is she is made fav because of who trains her and the perception that because Ryan Moore is on her, she is the first string.

Looking at the figures alone for every horse in the race, they are as follows

Angels Hideaway 76 84
Byron Bay 81
Chicas Amigas 80 93
Cotubanama 72 84 84 75
Fairyland 89 104
Hawayel 50 66
Jensue 70 70 72
Just Wonderful 84
La Pelosa 85
Main Edition 86 91
Merry Go Round 73 76
Nakakande 50 80 82 82
No More Regrets 66 79 81
Octave 83 86
Pretty Pollyanna 75
Response Exacte 83
Satisfying 74 75 74
Stillwater Cove 86

Now taking that angle of what the horses have achieved 7 horses in the race have already recorded higher figures than her, and within 1-2lb there are another 5. This means the level of form she has shown on debut is below 7, and similar to 5 others, therefore the race is wide open, bar a couple with proven figures.

Fairylands debut of 89 is the best debut in the race, Stillwater Cove and Main Edition next at 86. The 84 of Just Wonderful is the 5th best debut run in the race (La Pelosa 85). This means 4 horses all achieved more than her on debut.

Then you consider horses who stepped up on their debuts, of which Main Edition ran to 91 next time, and Fairyland 104. Neither Stillwater Cove or La Pelosa have run since so they are open to equal if not better ability than their debuts, which means in order for Just Wonderful to win, she has to improve significantly not just past one horse, but 4.

Then you can also consider the horses who ran similar or below JW on debut but have since improved past what she showed at the Curragh. Which includes Angels Hideaway, Chicas Amigas and Octave. So she has 7 horses she has to improve past to win, and this ranges from 3lb improvement to 20lb improvement, not accounting for the fact those horses may have improved again themselves.

Quite simply on a forum perspective she has to improve massively to not only win, but to even place.

Now granted her debut win, has worked out well. The 2nd who had, had a run previously raced all alone up the stands side, and had nothing to race with (so arguably capable of better) has since run 94 winning recently, but the 94 that, that filly improved to still would not be good enough to beat what Fairyland achieved last time out. The 3rd Gossamer Wings, then made hard work of an ordinary maiden, possibly not suiting 6f and then ran a fine 3rd in the Queen Mary, but as previously established one of the weakest Queen Mary's in a long time with the winner only running to 92, and Gossamer Wings 91, a figure only 9lb higher than her all out maiden win, and 10lb better than her 3rd to Just Wonderful.

The form of JW looks good on paper, but on what actually has been achieved still is nowhere near the standard of this race.

It should be noted Fairyland comfortably beat the 3rd from the Norfolk (a far stronger race than the Queen Mary) and also beat the red hot favourite for tomorrow's Windsor Castle, having won impressively on her own debut, where the well beaten 2nd and 4th have won since running to figures of 85 and 87 (both higher figures than JW has achieved and they were well held by an easy winning Fairyland).

So no because I am 99.99% certain something wont win, doesn't mean I would lay at 1000/1 and far from it, but she is hugely underpriced at 5/2, and on all known form Fairyland should be odds on, with closest rivals in the betting that of Stillwater Cove, La Pelosa and Main Edition who all have stronger form than JW and you could include Octave into that argument and Chicas Amigas who have both improved markedly from run 1 to 2, and the form of said races is very strong.

JW is open to improvement, does have stable number one jockey (if you believe he gets the choice of rides, which often he doesn't) and has a very smart pedigree, but none of those reasons are enough to make her a 5/2 favourite against 12 horses with equal or better form than her already. She ideally should be in about 6/1 - 7/1 which would reflect her price.

For me the betting should be something like this

Fairyland 11/8
Main Edition 3/1
La Pelosa 9/2
Stillwater Cove 9/2
Chicas Amigas 11/2
Octave 13/2
Just Wonderful 7/1
Angels Hideaway 10/1
Response Exacte 10/1
Byron Bay 12/1
Cotubanama 14/1
No More regrets 20/1
Nakakande 20/1
Pretty Pollyanna 20/1
Jensue 40/1
Satisfying 66/1
Merry Go Round 100/1
Hawayel 100/1

fair enough domino. I think fairyland has a good chance, what I take issue with is your readiness to ridicule those who have backed just wonderful. apparently according to you we have already done your dough.

so that's why I wouldn't try to "change your mind", as you claim. you're clearly too set in your ways to ever listen to anyone else.

No I'm not, I would be wiling to listen to a justifiable argument as to why JW could win this race, but figures and form says otherwise, her work at home says otherwise, and no one has actually gone into any reasoning why she should be fav, or should win, when I on the other hand can provide plenty as to why she shouldn't be bet.

how do you know about her work at home domino? do you have inside contacts at coolmore?

personally I prefer to assess them on the track, and she looked good enough to me.

Im a JW supporter. Gossamer ran well this week and Lethal Force scooted up next time and looked a pretty useful tool. Drawn 10 better draw than single figures imo and think she will win.

Ffs Lewisham.!!! Wrong question alert,

5000 word biography incoming. !

She may have "looked good" but everything looks fast past tree's as the saying goes.

But what she achieved on that occasion was way below the level needed here.

That's like me watching a horse win a 0-65, nothing come out the race and then it runs in a 0-80 next time and saying I think will win because it looked good last time out. I honestly don't get how that line of punting could possibly work without any form interpretation.

glasgow

nothing came out of the race domino? gossamer wings was a tree?

Lethal Promise sorry

So no because I am 99.99% certain something wont win, doesn't mean I would lay at 1000/1 and far from it,

so why say it then? just admitting that your own statements have no substance.

Gossamer Wings ran to 91 when 2nd in the Queen Mary, it was a substandard Queen Mary. The 91 she ran to would not be good enough to win this race.

Lethal Promise was 8L in front of Fantasy at the Curragh, 6.5L in front of the same horse last week. Yes her figure was in the mid nineties and decent enough, but she was arguably the one to take from the Curragh race, as she led and made all her side and had nothing to race with and appeared to wander off a true line late on. With company she would have won.

Her figure still wouldn't be good enough to win this.

Fairyland's win where she ran to 104, sets a huge standard to beat and the form was franked by Land Force who ran a close 3rd in the Norfolk yesterday running to the same figure he did when 3rd to Fairyland.

Lewisham;

On what you're implying, your viewpoint is if you don't think a horse can win, you should be happy to lay at 1000/1, that is probably one of the most stupid things I have ever read, without any offence intended.

I think the filly at 9/4 is massively underpriced, and yes I'm 99.99% sure she wont win and I've layed her at 3.45, but just because you don't think a horse will win, doesn't mean you would lay it at 1000/1

That is one of the most clueless things I've ever seen !

I've already said for me, on form JW should be around 6-7/1 and on that basis she is a strong lay at 9/4.

argument well made Domino i have no problems with that. I will stick with JW though

Just wonderful looks like an older horse. I would never take on such a horse in a two year old race.

domino, if you think she's 99.9 percent certain not to win, then in your opinion she's an 1000-1 shot. or am I missing something?

NO Lewisham, no horse should be 1000/1 whatever the race. You appear to be missing a lot.

Howard, what is your basis of that comment ? Intrigued as looking at her in the flesh, I wouldn't have said she was actually that much to look at !

"99.99% sure she won't win" and "I think her honest price is 7/1 (8.0)" i.e. 12.5% chance of winning.

domino , first race form can count for nothing win or lose.  Secretariat and Sea the Stars well beat first starts.

exactly angela, too contradictory statements and apparently it's me who is confused....

He's so far up his own. It must be dark up there

good shout domino14 [even in defeat]

Form horses 1-2-3

Annoyingly Fairyland on the wrong side of the track, beats her side home.

Fair enough dom  not a Winner but spot on there Buddy.

Frustrating, draw has beaten her. She's stayed all the way to the line. She'll get further and she'll beat the two who beat her when she races against them again. She shapes like a bit of give would suit.

The figures pointed to the form horses though, so nice to see the form horses to the fore, also pleased to see Just Wonderful run just how I expected she would.

I hold my hands up there, good call domino, that just wonderful was absolutely awful.

what price natalies joy tomorrow, my guess is she's some way ahead of this main edition, she could be some filly.

Yeah you called it right. Thought the winner was class but too worried about the ground.

First 3, possibly 4 home will win group races. I think Fairyland will turn out to be the best, but La Pelosa was not unduly knocked about and would like to see her in the Cherry Hinton or the Princess Margaret next time.

johnston's two year olds been going well all year.

On the Norfolk running and now the Albany (drawn wrong side), I fail to see how anyone can look past Van Beethoven tomorrow in the weakest 2yo race of the weak.

well done domino...you have great information and are generous to share it

I'd be more happy to get behind domino if as someone said earlier, the guy wasn't so up his own jacksie....

How can you say that Lew?

@fozzybear

Fair point, accepted. However I believe she would have won if raced on the right side and think she has lost nothing in defeat. I don't know what price she is for the Guineas, but I don't think she has hindered her claims.

I openly said I had 12 horses equal or better than Just Wonderful, so yes I did find it conceivable she would be well beaten. I said she was 4-6 L behind Fairyland, and she was at least that. I would also add, if you look on the Placepot thread, I left out Just Wonderful from my selections and had the first three home. As stated earlier I don't rate Just Wonderful at all and felt the form of her debut win was flattering, and that has been proved correct.

@Lewisham

I'm not so far up my own arse, yes I have an opinion and will openly debate my beliefs, but I am far from up my own arse, sorry you feel that way.

well it's quite obvious that the guy has the ego of a gas giant.

seems keen to ridicule those with less information than he does. hence the whole ridiculing of those beforehand of who dared to fancy just wonderful. fair enough, because he was clearly proved right about her, except as someone else has just pointed out he also suggested that fairyland would be much shorter for the 1000, and he was wrong about that.

just feel there is some sort of weird agenda going on with this guy, clearly he has some sort of inside info, however rather than using it just for his own purposes, he shares it on the forum. but that doesn't mean he's some sort of horse racing robin hood rather he likes the hero worship he gets on here, so i recommend you don't play his game and pander to his ego even more

domino, in the words of Ronnie Barker in Porridge, dont let the barstards get you down, you put up good info, good on you mate

dom is the King.

@Lewisham

The only agenda on this site is the trolls and people who like to put people down who are happy to give an opinion, be constructive and try and point people in the right direction. I am privy to information, and one stable I've fell out with over posting it and lost the job photographing their horses as a result, but I have said a million times, I don't believe anything shouldn't be in the public domain, and I am happy to put what I hear and know out there, as I feel everyone has a right to know it. If that makes me have an "massive ego" or "up my own arse" then so be it, however one thing I don't do is after time and I will gladly state my opinion and back it up with form, facts or info. No I won't be right all the time, and I like anyone can get it wrong, sometimes badly, but I feel many punters are led by markets or press reports which are hugely inaccurate and I'm more than happy to level the playing field.

domino ridiculed my bet on the one horse in the 255, it lost but pulled like a train, this is a  guy that paid £895 to isris for horse racing tips and lost, so he no room to slag other peoples bets off

dont normally voice my opinion. but please keep the info  coming.

he doesnt have info, slang slang was heavily tipped by racingpost and its chance for all to see, he has a big ego making up stories that he has contacts in racing stables

The collar,

Ben Poste

Ryan Moore

Jun 22, 2018 -- 3:11PM, lord skywalker wrote:

he doesnt have info, slang slang was heavily tipped by racingpost and its chance for all to see, he has a big ego making up stories that he has contacts in racing stables

100%, he is a losing fantasist punter, who does his research, and puts his opinions in a fantasist story. It's quite alarming how many people believe him.

@Lord Skywalker

I didn't ridicule your bet. You accused me of being hard up, trying to be clever and then proceeded to tip 2 horses to me. I just said good luck backing Graham Lee on a favourite. He is one jockey I would never want on a fancied horse.

fair enough domino, keep posting mate

You were right again Domino, only beaten by the draw.
Thanks for sharing

Lewisham,

If this post hadn't been created would you have backed Just Wondering ?

The guy has put up a zillion reasons for not backing it and was proven to be 100% correct.
OK he got Fairyland wrong, so did I (although i layed the fav for a fair bit) and many others but is that a reason to continually have a pop ?

Your post at 14.39 was humble and respectful, why not leave it at that ?

@Angela, as said before I would happily have my bets with you. Losing punter I'm not. You can believe what you want, I don't really care for your opinion.

Lewisham,

Just seen your post at 15.13, well done

you were tryin to be funny saying it had no chance, you were right as  it happened but keep your sarky comments to yourself next time

i backed just wondering yesterday andrew.

Unless it's a roulette system

i'd have to be fairly desperately lacking in confidence to care about what someone posts on a forum.

@Lord Sky

So it was okay for you to accuse me of being clueless, and say I was hard up and be clever in trying to tip 2 horses to me, as if I needed your tips ?

But it wasn't okay for me to reply with a snide comment when you were betting a fav with the most palm tree jockey to have ever graced horse racing?

Deptford the quote is

don't let the bug gers get you down.....michael mates to asil nadir.

whatever it's effing ridiculous for people on here to carp about domino.

Some say tomato ,some say tomatoes, if
You don't like it just use your  block
Button ! ... Keep posting Dom your opinion is as welcome as anyone else's.

domino14
Date Joined:    28 Jan 18
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22 Jun 18 13:23 Joined: 28 Jan 18 | Topic/replies: 1,188 | Blogger: domino14's blog
Lewisham;

On what you're implying, your viewpoint is if you don't think a horse can win, you should be happy to lay at 1000/1, that is probably one of the most stupid things I have ever read, without any offence intended.

I think the filly at 9/4 is massively underpriced, and yes I'm 99.99% sure she wont win and I've layed her at 3.45, but just because you don't think a horse will win, doesn't mean you would lay it at 1000/1

That is one of the most clueless things I've ever seen !

I've already said for me, on form JW should be around 6-7/1 and on that basis she is a strong lay at 9/4.

you may have a pipeline directly into ballydoyle for all i know. one thing i do know is you need to take an introductory course in statistics. calling others out when you clearly have no clue...not a good look.

For me the betting should be something like this

Fairyland 11/8
Main Edition 3/1
La Pelosa 9/2
Stillwater Cove 9/2
Chicas Amigas 11/2
Octave 13/2
Just Wonderful 7/1
Angels Hideaway 10/1
Response Exacte 10/1
Byron Bay 12/1
Cotubanama 14/1
No More regrets 20/1
Nakakande 20/1
Pretty Pollyanna 20/1
Jensue 40/1
Satisfying 66/1
Merry Go Round 100/1
Hawayel 100/1

thats a 197% book ffs 

clueless coont

Domino what is a palm tree jockey?TIA.

second again

https://www.google.se/search?q=palm+tree+jockey&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=Ay0RQX_e-mSW1M%253A%252CA3cAx0fT242e7M%252C_&usg=__fZ5obi6DB0HZskRwfU6xfiXFLLs%3D&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjKy4HequnbAhWMBZoKHfCIDGUQ9QEIKzAB#imgrc=Ay0RQX_e-mSW1M:

'Palm tree jockey', I'm still none the wiser

Palm Tree's are a curved shape ......

The saying goes, as straight as a tall Palm Tree.

I think it's easy to decipher.

ok, I get it, there's quite a few 'palm tree jockeys' I think, they should form a forest, then we could burn it!

domino thinks because he shells out hundreds to get so called inside info that he can sideline anyones bet , you back 7/2 shots each way for gods sake, that says it all

domino is a palm tree

@Lord Skywalker

I was one of the straightest jockeys riding, never stopped a horse in my life.

Probably most didn't need stopping dom.

They stopped on there own accord.

never said you stopped any horse, you said graham lee is a palm tree jockey

does dom ride shetland ponies, they stop very quick

@Lord Skywalker

Yes Graham Lee is a Palm Tree jockey, meaning he is as straight as a palm tree.

Lord, I rode over 200 winners, lots of them didn't stop quickly.