Ascot 2yo Races - The Albany

I don't know what price they will go off, but I'll run the July Course stark boll ock naked, if Just Wonderful beats Fairyland. I am only worried of 2 horses in the race (La Pelosa and Octave), I would be amazed if Just Wonderful got close enough to Fairyland to sniff her tail !

Well Just Wonderful is 4-6L behind her at home and Fairyland is not only the best filly in the yard, but she's too good for the fillies that she has to work with the colts. I've only seen 2 colts work as well as her at home, and neither have run yet but they are 7f types. She destroyed Sergei P in her pre Ascot gallop and she is definitely the first string for this. I will be astonished if she loses to be honest, for me she is the real deal in the fillies department and I think she will end up fav for the 1000 Guineas next season. I would actually be disappointed if she doesn't win this be at least 2L.

@Differentdrum

I had a price about her after she won last time, it was 25/1, She was not priced up before then.

Regarding prices, it never ceases to amaze me, everyone I know connected to the yard backed her to beat Van Beethoven last time, yet she went off a biggish price. Also the same re Kew Garden's earlier in the week, was always the yards number one, but went off decent price. If I was a bookmaker knowing Fairyland was better, I too would price up Just Wonderful shorter. Yes you will take shrewd punters bets, but any big punters prob wont be able to get on with you, but you'll get the normal everyday punter who is not in the know or any idea backing JW blind as she has RM on, and appears to be the yards number one.

I don't agree with what you say about JW maiden win either. JW had plenty to race with, she tracked the pace on the far side chasing Fantasy (well held by the 2nd since) and only headed Sparklenjoy inside the final 300m. She kept on, whilst Lethal Promise on the near side, had nothing really to race with and never saw a horse on the near side until Gossamer Wings flashed home (still only got within 1.5L of her).

Personally JW had more to race with than the 2nd, and the 3rd the penny dropped too late. Had the second had something to race with I would have said she would have won that day. She has since come out and beaten Fantasy by 6.5L, who whilst beaten 8L that day, was hampered and eased right down.

I think the 2nd and 3rd have improved a lot and were on the unfavoured side at the Curragh and it's what they have done since which makes JW look decent. Afterall she has only ran to 84 on debut, and whilst the 2nd and 3rd have subsequently ran to 95 and 91, even those two efforts are 10lb short of what Fairyland has already achieved.

obviously i respect domino after he put up shang shang shang earlier in the week, guy seems to have his ear to the ground, although not sure why he gives out this info for free

Not sure about this analysis:

Just Wonderful was also a shade lucky to beat Gossamer Wings that day, given she was slowly away, held up and raced on the worse side of the course, so her win was flattered a shade.

really? It looked like just wonderful was running on the worse side of the course, not gossamer wings, given that just wonderful beat her rivals on that side by several lengths.

also O'briens are well known for coming on a ton from their first runs, so gossamer wings had an advantage over just wonderful in that sense.

I love a guy that puts his head on the Chopping Block.

I don't care whether I convince you or not.

saying you're 99.9 percent certain is utter bilge and you know it. are you saying you'd lay her at 1000-1?

never read so much dross in my life.

There are all kinds of 'Could be anythings' in here so, while Fairy looks the best, can't see playing in a field like this except on top of 'shots

in exactas. And don't overlook Ward's. She ran 22.1 46.2 and 53.0 for 4 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Flew out of gate, soon well clear. Hand ridden,

and although slowing at the finish should be even better now and could handle the extra dist. Given that firm turf is usually faster than dirt

and that her race was around a bend she could well run 3 seconds faster than Fairy's time. Having said that Fairy won comfortably and as far as

Stillwater Cove is concerned stamina is a question mark. But hey, Ward/Rosario 2yof.....must include her.

No why would I lay her at 1000/1 ?

I would definitely lay her at 3.65 though !

However you view the race, she should not be favourite on any book. The fact is she is made fav because of who trains her and the perception that because Ryan Moore is on her, she is the first string.

Looking at the figures alone for every horse in the race, they are as follows

Angels Hideaway 76 84
Byron Bay 81
Chicas Amigas 80 93
Cotubanama 72 84 84 75
Fairyland 89 104
Hawayel 50 66
Jensue 70 70 72
Just Wonderful 84
La Pelosa 85
Main Edition 86 91
Merry Go Round 73 76
Nakakande 50 80 82 82
No More Regrets 66 79 81
Octave 83 86
Pretty Pollyanna 75
Response Exacte 83
Satisfying 74 75 74
Stillwater Cove 86

Now taking that angle of what the horses have achieved 7 horses in the race have already recorded higher figures than her, and within 1-2lb there are another 5. This means the level of form she has shown on debut is below 7, and similar to 5 others, therefore the race is wide open, bar a couple with proven figures.

Fairylands debut of 89 is the best debut in the race, Stillwater Cove and Main Edition next at 86. The 84 of Just Wonderful is the 5th best debut run in the race (La Pelosa 85). This means 4 horses all achieved more than her on debut.

Then you consider horses who stepped up on their debuts, of which Main Edition ran to 91 next time, and Fairyland 104. Neither Stillwater Cove or La Pelosa have run since so they are open to equal if not better ability than their debuts, which means in order for Just Wonderful to win, she has to improve significantly not just past one horse, but 4.

Then you can also consider the horses who ran similar or below JW on debut but have since improved past what she showed at the Curragh. Which includes Angels Hideaway, Chicas Amigas and Octave. So she has 7 horses she has to improve past to win, and this ranges from 3lb improvement to 20lb improvement, not accounting for the fact those horses may have improved again themselves.

Quite simply on a forum perspective she has to improve massively to not only win, but to even place.

Now granted her debut win, has worked out well. The 2nd who had, had a run previously raced all alone up the stands side, and had nothing to race with (so arguably capable of better) has since run 94 winning recently, but the 94 that, that filly improved to still would not be good enough to beat what Fairyland achieved last time out. The 3rd Gossamer Wings, then made hard work of an ordinary maiden, possibly not suiting 6f and then ran a fine 3rd in the Queen Mary, but as previously established one of the weakest Queen Mary's in a long time with the winner only running to 92, and Gossamer Wings 91, a figure only 9lb higher than her all out maiden win, and 10lb better than her 3rd to Just Wonderful.

The form of JW looks good on paper, but on what actually has been achieved still is nowhere near the standard of this race.

It should be noted Fairyland comfortably beat the 3rd from the Norfolk (a far stronger race than the Queen Mary) and also beat the red hot favourite for tomorrow's Windsor Castle, having won impressively on her own debut, where the well beaten 2nd and 4th have won since running to figures of 85 and 87 (both higher figures than JW has achieved and they were well held by an easy winning Fairyland).

So no because I am 99.99% certain something wont win, doesn't mean I would lay at 1000/1 and far from it, but she is hugely underpriced at 5/2, and on all known form Fairyland should be odds on, with closest rivals in the betting that of Stillwater Cove, La Pelosa and Main Edition who all have stronger form than JW and you could include Octave into that argument and Chicas Amigas who have both improved markedly from run 1 to 2, and the form of said races is very strong.

JW is open to improvement, does have stable number one jockey (if you believe he gets the choice of rides, which often he doesn't) and has a very smart pedigree, but none of those reasons are enough to make her a 5/2 favourite against 12 horses with equal or better form than her already. She ideally should be in about 6/1 - 7/1 which would reflect her price.

For me the betting should be something like this

Fairyland 11/8
Main Edition 3/1
La Pelosa 9/2
Stillwater Cove 9/2
Chicas Amigas 11/2
Octave 13/2
Just Wonderful 7/1
Angels Hideaway 10/1
Response Exacte 10/1
Byron Bay 12/1
Cotubanama 14/1
No More regrets 20/1
Nakakande 20/1
Pretty Pollyanna 20/1
Jensue 40/1
Satisfying 66/1
Merry Go Round 100/1
Hawayel 100/1

No I'm not, I would be wiling to listen to a justifiable argument as to why JW could win this race, but figures and form says otherwise, her work at home says otherwise, and no one has actually gone into any reasoning why she should be fav, or should win, when I on the other hand can provide plenty as to why she shouldn't be bet.

Im a JW supporter. Gossamer ran well this week and Lethal Force scooted up next time and looked a pretty useful tool. Drawn 10 better draw than single figures imo and think she will win.

She may have "looked good" but everything looks fast past tree's as the saying goes.

But what she achieved on that occasion was way below the level needed here.

That's like me watching a horse win a 0-65, nothing come out the race and then it runs in a 0-80 next time and saying I think will win because it looked good last time out. I honestly don't get how that line of punting could possibly work without any form interpretation.

nothing came out of the race domino? gossamer wings was a tree?

So no because I am 99.99% certain something wont win, doesn't mean I would lay at 1000/1 and far from it,

so why say it then? just admitting that your own statements have no substance.

Lewisham;

On what you're implying, your viewpoint is if you don't think a horse can win, you should be happy to lay at 1000/1, that is probably one of the most stupid things I have ever read, without any offence intended.

I think the filly at 9/4 is massively underpriced, and yes I'm 99.99% sure she wont win and I've layed her at 3.45, but just because you don't think a horse will win, doesn't mean you would lay it at 1000/1

That is one of the most clueless things I've ever seen !

I've already said for me, on form JW should be around 6-7/1 and on that basis she is a strong lay at 9/4.

Just wonderful looks like an older horse. I would never take on such a horse in a two year old race.

NO Lewisham, no horse should be 1000/1 whatever the race. You appear to be missing a lot.

Howard, what is your basis of that comment ? Intrigued as looking at her in the flesh, I wouldn't have said she was actually that much to look at !

domino , first race form can count for nothing win or lose.  Secretariat and Sea the Stars well beat first starts.