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The Science of Second up Betting.
Our live and free triple headers is on again today around Australia.
Many horses are media favourites, some-times odds on after a good first up performance, only to run poorly 2nd up.
Why?
Let’s put this in lay-man’s terms.
If you are 30-40-50-60 years old and after a long break, you play one of your favourite games, first up.
It may be cricket, soccer, tennis, squash, running or such.
You will surprise your-self and put in a jolly good showing.
However 3-4 days later you practically cannot walk and are sore for many more days.
It is the same with a horse, they run well, but are sore for the next 10 days, go well down in fitness and then need another 10 more days to
catch up and pass their first up fitness levels.
But media jumps in and their prices are way under to their fitness levels.
Bet in between these periods and you are at a bigger risk of losing.
If you use a 2nd up short priced horse as you think “this has to win” as your standout, so you lay another horse; you are in serious trouble.
In Australia 2nd up horse recover in around 20 days and in the UK it is closer to 30 days plus because of different training programs.
I have explained this science of winning 2nd up to many trainers.
What they need to do is firstly work on re building a horses blood count with Iron, B12/B15 injections and folic acid or
similar type additives they use.
The horse will lose weight after its good first up run, so its strength factors are down, they need to re build that and then start on getting the horse
fitter then after another 14 days.
2yo these rules does not apply when they start racing, they are injury free, it is all new to them and they only just want to run.
I hope this helps your 2nd up betting, best rule is stay out.
The media say it will be fitter, they are wrong, it is less fit.
Regards
James
Our live and free triple headers is on again today around Australia.
Many horses are media favourites, some-times odds on after a good first up performance, only to run poorly 2nd up.
Why?
Let’s put this in lay-man’s terms.
If you are 30-40-50-60 years old and after a long break, you play one of your favourite games, first up.
It may be cricket, soccer, tennis, squash, running or such.
You will surprise your-self and put in a jolly good showing.
However 3-4 days later you practically cannot walk and are sore for many more days.
It is the same with a horse, they run well, but are sore for the next 10 days, go well down in fitness and then need another 10 more days to
catch up and pass their first up fitness levels.
But media jumps in and their prices are way under to their fitness levels.
Bet in between these periods and you are at a bigger risk of losing.
If you use a 2nd up short priced horse as you think “this has to win” as your standout, so you lay another horse; you are in serious trouble.
In Australia 2nd up horse recover in around 20 days and in the UK it is closer to 30 days plus because of different training programs.
I have explained this science of winning 2nd up to many trainers.
What they need to do is firstly work on re building a horses blood count with Iron, B12/B15 injections and folic acid or
similar type additives they use.
The horse will lose weight after its good first up run, so its strength factors are down, they need to re build that and then start on getting the horse
fitter then after another 14 days.
2yo these rules does not apply when they start racing, they are injury free, it is all new to them and they only just want to run.
I hope this helps your 2nd up betting, best rule is stay out.
The media say it will be fitter, they are wrong, it is less fit.
Regards
James
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I may be back about midnight for Asoct, see how I feel.
I had internet issues today but did 19 races around Australia live in the mounting yards, with 17 89.50% top line winners. Spent 3,000 pound on exotics and got back 7,000: profit of 4,000 pound. 8/8 lays also in. See you later? James |
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You can't have heard of the 7 day winner system then Jim?
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and there was i thinking it was all done thro looking @ a tv screen.
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Spent 3,000 pound on exotics and got back 7,000
We won 4,500 pound on the day I keep finding that big odds horse in the exotics, like one race on Saturday with a 4,000 pound return. It paid 18,000 pounds! We finished the day $4,000, 2,000 pounds up for the day Always suspicious when someone always uses round figures. |
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All the bookies on Fantasy Island round their payments off up to the nearest 1,000
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Ricardo says it's good for business
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value bet
value bet 18 Jun 18 16:24 Joined: 12 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 5,772 | Blogger: value bet's blog I dont bet. |
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aee what happens.
I add up to 3,000 pounds per day to costs, dont count double wins if they hedge my two strategy bets, that would be 100k pounds per year. |
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in a realy hard race
try 1-11-2-4-10 and then may not get it. Pass is best policy. |
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if it works so well why not cash in on the quiet?
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Why not get some recognition from the forum cognoscenti as well?
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id go for the cash in on the quiet.
If a system works then profit from it. |
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He's already 20m AUD+ up, really he just does it for interest now.
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results
19-8-17 if u had a bet in that race, I hope you won. James |
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could be the worlds richest man if he put the effort in then.
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I am going to pay for soon after nearly a year free.
I have done the yards and made many changes to how to present best along the way, and happy with my strategies and system working now. Just fitness consulting with Chris Waller (WINX) is a sensational thrill. He won his 170th city race today, wins up to 15 million pounds a year and will improve further. James |
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I am working on cutting edge software so u can scan the fitness of every runner using your mobile.
That is just about it then and should be finished in 10 more years, that takes me up to about 80. My job is done then for centuries of winners for punters. Thats cool. James |
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Cracksman certainly a smart horse.
In the papers here they say after Ascot, many owners will make a decision about sending horses here for The Everest (7 million pounds) and the Melbourne Cup (4 million pounds) It will be a very interesting spring carnival. James |
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Ascot next here.
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Ascot
the favourites look better, just have to work out who you like. 8-9-11-5 Best bolters are 1-6 Its hard, pass How to win? |
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You can get 6/4 in a 6 horse race or 2/1 in a 20 horse race, what is best?
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Ascot results.
8 leading well. 5-9-8-1, he is a very good trainer. |
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the 6/4 if it should be evens and the 2/1 should be 10/1
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Your a funny man them, always nice to get overs though.
Chris Waller had a winner today on 98.75% fit and won x 6 lengths at 10/1 and was my top fitness tip. That was huge overs. |
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Had family around for tea tonight.
We have lamb, pork and chicken roast then home made apply pie! I dont think I will eat for a week. |
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Maison next
Look at the 2-4-13 good luck |
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Hamilton
1-4 look ok |
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Hamilton results:
1 last out x 2 lengths. 4 3 back on the rails. 4 cant get out, dumb ride. 1-4 results. 1 wins at 4/1 |
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Maisons 2400m race 8 results.
6-12-13-2 |
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Ascot 6 or 11 here 2nd up.
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WALOFS
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Ascot 1 sweating up on the front. nice type though but sweating up 2nd up.
2 a nice big type. |
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Ascot
I dont know here with so many horses 2nd up it really throws a spanner into the works. |
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value bet 20 Jun 18 01:01
The Science of Second up Betting. -------------------------------- Let’s put this in lay-man’s terms. If you are 30-40-50-60 years old and after a long break, you play one of your favourite games, first up. It may be cricket, soccer, tennis, squash, running or such. You will surprise your-self and put in a jolly good showing. However 3-4 days later you practically cannot walk and are sore for many more days. It is the same with a horse, they run well, but are sore for the next 10 days, go well down in fitness and then need another 10 more days to catch up and pass their first up fitness levels. --------------- We have called it - 'The BOUNCE' (factor) here - for decades - Jim. |
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3 second up form 4-0-0-0
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10 ok but again 2nd up. URBAN FOX
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Faults of the guy in the parade yard is he only wants you to see his selections and sugar the rest.
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the 1-3 is either going to win on class or a blow out.
No bet. |
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Ascot results:
3 wins and 1 disappeared into the sunset, sweating up and 2nd up. $1.30 liability a lay place, that could of been a good bet. |