Delano Can Deliver The Great Depression On Saxon Backers

It's Derby Day, and the feature at 4.30 will open the doors to a possible Triple Crown bid for Saxon Warrior, bloodless at two, impressive in the Guineas, the 5/6 morning favourite is all the rage but there are questions to still be answered and there is definitely value elsewhere.

Make no doubt about it Saxon Warrior is the form horse to beat in the race, a joint career best of 119 shown in the Guineas (also achieved in the RPT at 2), he has a 3lb advantage minimum on his rivals on all known form today. There is stamina in the dams side, for all the stallion looked vulnerable at 12f. The soft ground has started drying but this makes it gluey and sticky, something that nearly proved costly to another big robust type in Cracksman yesterday. A coffin box in stall 1, adds in further questions, but I am a firm believer that a good horse can overcome any draw.
Saxon Warriors work at home has been pleasing, he has regularly defeated Hunting Horn (his regular lead horse) in many gallops and has rarely not looked something special on the gallops. But there is one concern that sits uneasy with me. Saxon Warrior is kept in one of the larger boxes that overlooks the main house. It's in the shape of a Horseshoe and each horse has a small grazing paddock behind it's box. It is normally kept for the special colts and the ones of the biggest proportions as the boxes are pretty much the size of foaling boxes. You will recall St Nicholas Abbey after his injury being shown in one of these huge boxes sadly before he had to be euthanised. The 12 boxes in this section of the yard (Actually only 11 at present as one box is empty) hold only colts and geldings and currently house Saxon Warrior, Yucatan, Idaho, Conclusion,  Order Of St George, Indianapolis, Intelligence Cross, Amedeo Modigliani, James Cook, Declarationofpeace & Madrid.
Recently Conclusion returned from a race having found to be coughing, and was tailed off in the process, and the same was found with Intelligence Cross when he ran. Order Of St George for all he got the job done did not impress in his recent race and on the whole for the last 2/3 weeks every horse who has run from this section of the yard has disappointed !
On Wednesday morning Saxon Warrior breezed 7f with Delano Roosevelt and where you would have expected him to breeze by, he didn't. He didn't show his usual spark. he wasn't pushed out or anything, but he looked flat.

He also gave a couple of coughs pulling up, which connections felt could have been the kickback off the all weather as Delano kicks it up like shovels with his massive feet and early in the gallop this would have been going into the face of Saxon Warrior.
He did scope clean, and connections are happy enough with him, but breezing flat 3 days before his biggest test and being in a section of the yard where horses aren't finishing their races, where there has been coughing and yesterday 2 more horses from that section of the yard tailed off has to concern me.

It could be nothing and he could win in the style of the world class super horse he is being bigged up to be, but I have my own concerns and when Order Of St George made very hard work to win an ordinary race at 1/10 the other day my concerns had to remain high.

For me it poses big questions on him, we have the draw, we have the big horse factor, we have the gluey ground, we have the stamina question and added to the minor concern of horses in that section of the yard, it all comes in a round about way of can you take 5/6 about a class act with so much against him and for me the answer is no.

If he does win I think it will be workmanlike, much like the manner of Cracksman yesterday, but with Ryan Moore on board, I don't know if you would get a determined ride like Frankie gave Cracksman, so for me I am opposing him.

Everything on form has to improve to beat him, Masar on figures is next best in having run to 115 this season, but for me his stamina will be tested massively today and I have a feeling he will be best seen at 10f. There are ground concerns for Roaring Lion as well, and stamina also has to be an issue for him. I have stated before I haven't seen him reproduce the figure he done last season yet this season and for me, this may prove a big ask. I think he will probably travel one of the best in the race and maybe look a major player
down the hill and off Tattenham corner, but I can see the petrol gage running low late on and being swamped. I think he'll run well and on decent ground would have given him a major chance, but I feel this is one step too much, I would fancy him for the Eclipse however.

With 9 other runners in the line up I think we can dismiss the chances of two rather easily, Zabriskie was flattered in 3rd, in the Dante and wouldn't have beat the winner with another 2m let alone 2f and I suspect he has a pace setting role lined up today, whilst The Pentagon is a horse who needs fast ground. We opposed him on both starts this season, firstly when well beaten behind Nelson when on ground he hates and not fit, and then last time when he proved no match for Hazapour and Delano Roosevelt. There is also stamina concerns over him and on soft ground these are only increased. I find it easy to strike a line through those two but expect both to race forward on the pace.

I like Sevenna Star at big odds, impressive beating nothing at Windsor, he showed great battling qualities at Sandown. He'll enjoy the ground and he'll stay the trip, but he's only ran to 106 at best so far and that's not good enough to win a Derby. He may improve but he needs to improve too much to win this and for I think he'll run well, I expect him to come up short.

Dee Ex Bee is a bit like a Cracksman to me. I think he is a horse who has a tremendous amount of ability but I'm not sure this track brings out the best in him. He made very hard work to win a 2yo race here last season and in the Blue Ribband he lost a lot of ground coming down the hill before running on strongly. There is little between him and Young Rascal on the Chester running and I wouldn't be surprised if this was on a galloping track that he would reverse that form. The ground will suit him and I do think he will run well, but he can't afford to get found out coming down the hill like he has twice here before, as he simply wont be able to get back the ground up it. I do think he'll be staying on where it matters and I would not be surprised if he got 4th or 5th late on, I do think if it was a flat 12f he would run a much bigger race, but feel the track could well be his undoing, but he is a horse I like.

Young Rascal beat him OK at Chester and is an improving horse. He went to breakfast with the stars and wasn't that impressive in his gallop, but appeared to handle the track fine. He met trouble in running that day and ran to 112 in winning so any issues with the fav and others at the head of affairs and he doesn't need to improve much to win. He showed he handles give at Newbury but he just strikes me as a horse who whilst decent shouldn't be good enough to win a Derby. I think being dropped in may not totally suit him today either as I can see the pace being dictated at fair fractions unlike the strong fractions in the Oaks and if this turns into a speed rather than stamina test it could count against him. he's another than whilst I can respect I think will come up short.

The Lingfield form is interesting. Kew Gardens was undoubtedly given too much to do by Ryan and will surely be ridden more handily today but I have my reservations of his ability. He'll stay and I think he'll get further but he's never ran above 106 for me and he's a similar horse to Dee Ex Bee and for all he made up ground at Lingfield, he was never catching the winner. I think he is a nice horse, I just don't think he is good enough.
The winner of the race Knight To Behold is one of the three I want on my side. I was impressed by his attitude in his maiden last season at Newmarket and for all everyone says he got an easy lead at Lingfield, he went a really strong gallop and didn't appear to have a breather. I was more impressed by the way he kicked again 2f out and he wasn't stopping at the line. I am not sure if the O'Brien team will look to put pressure on him at front or maybe even use one up so he doesn't get the lead, it's all possible but for me he has what very few in this race have and that is a very strong cruising speed and I can see him and Masar bowling along somewhat and I would expect this horse to outstay Masar and a lot of these. Whether the ground has dented his chances I do not know, but if he shows the same turn of foot he did at Lingfield he would be dangerous to dismiss. He ran to 109 that day and he would only need to improve half a stone to put him bang there. I think he could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead.

I think Delano Roosevelt outside Saxon Warrior has the best chance of O'Brien's and he in many ways is my idea of the winner. When we backed Nelson earlier in the year, this horse was given a suspect ride and we knew he wasn't wound up for that race. It can be said he was expected to win next time but for me missing the break and Wayne Lordan waiting too long cost him the win. He moved nicely into 4th and looked like he would pick up and win, but Wayne in my eyes rode him like he could win when he wants and then went patient on him whilst he should have continued his run. He was gaining with every stride and should have won and this extra 2f is exactly what he wants. He has always excelled at home and impressed in his work, and it should be noted it was he who breezed best when breezing 7f with Saxon Warrior in the week and he enjoyed bowling along. I don't think he'll be held up today and I think he'll sit somewhere in the middle. The way he hits the ground he needs soft ground and having run 110 and 111 in his two starts this season when it could easily be said he was "capable of better" suggests to me he is not far off the standard needed. He has 8lb to find with a bang on Saxon Warrior and this horse will love the ground, relish the extra trip and most importantly, this is a horse run two solid races around the tight left handed undulating track that is Leopardstown, in many ways similar to the challenges of Epsom. I personally feel he has the ability to bridge that gap and Seamie Heffernan will certainly be hungry on him. 14/1 and 12/1 with firms paying 4 places, he is good each way value.
I feel his biggest danger may come from Hazapour who beat him last time out. He like Delano Roosevelt shows he handles undulating tracks having won at Galway and Leopardstown and he travelled really well last time and although Delano was gaining close home, there is feeling this horse may have been blowing up. He handles any ground and he should see out the trip no problem. He also ran 113 in winning that race, which if you exclude Masar and Roaring Lion's  efforts at 2, is the joint 2nd best figure on offer this year (tied with the Dante win of Roaring Lion). I think he is open to more improvement than most and I think there is more to come from him. I do feel in Dettori he has the best track jockey on and I see him playing a major role. I do half feel Delano will outstay him though, but I do feel he is the main danger to the selection.

All in all, whilst I respect Saxon Warrior, I have my concerns. I think there is enough there to take him on and the section of yard he's in does give me my biggest concern. I don't think the ground will bother him but there is course, stall and stamina reservation. I was planning to lay him in the place market and did do yesterday but I have cancelled my place lay on him for a loss of £32, so regardless of how he runs I'm £32 down already. I don't think he'll win and I think he is beatable but when you consider he does have 7lb in hand on the majority of his rivals I think I would need a lot to get him out the frame. I decided to reveal my reasons to lay in being fair and as said they aren't enough to say he'll be stuffed, but does give me enough to think he can be beaten.

I  have layed him risking £690 to make £800 before commission.

I am also having bets on 3 in the race to try and bolster my win if he's beaten. £100 on Delano Roosevelt @ 14/1, £50 on Hazapour @ 12/1 and £50 on Knight To Behold @ 25/1.

Therefore if SW wins, I lose £922, but if he doesn't, I am guaranteed £568 (pre commission) with higher payouts of £1968, £1168 & £1818 before commission if DR, H or KTB win.

With £922 at stake, I want to cover myself in the four place market as well.

Delano Roosevelt is 6/4 in the 4 place market and I will be having £400 on him at this price, I think this is a big price.

As much as I've layed SW I also feel there is value to be had in the without Favourite markets. I can't find any liquidity with Betfair so I have had to go with other bookmakers. I have had £100 W/O SW @ 13/2 with William Hill on Delano Roosevelt and £50 W/O SW @ 6/1 on Hazapour with Coral.

My total outlay on the race is £1472.00 and even if SW wins, I can still draw a profit if Delano or Hazapour come 2nd to him, and Delano is in the four.

Ideally though I want SW beaten as that gives me £568 in the back, before the 4 place and W/O SW bets, which if all flunked I would still near as damn it break even on the race.


Good luck all betting on the race !