Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Been through the form four times (making sure Channon hasn't thrown in a dud) and have come to a fairly simple conclusion. If Saxon Warrior stays, it wins imo. Way and beyond the classiest beast in the race imo as a the great Willie Carson said about winning the Derby....'classic form is always the best'.
Any sensible thoughts welcome.
Any sensible thoughts welcome.
Show More
I forgot to add that the 5/4 on here could prove a big price if I'm right whilst some books are odds on.
the hugh taylor 50/1 selection sevenna star who he put up after winning a windsor maiden in the mud still in the race, could not have it myself, but if the heavy rain keeps coming not many will be suited like him.
No forlorn hope if the going turns to heavy ashleigh and although it's two year old form is poor it's done well since having wind surgery and most Derbies are won by horses with a 1 or more in it's previous form.
Pity the weather may play a part but might be worth an EW punt.
Pity the weather may play a part but might be worth an EW punt.
There have been better horses than Saxon Warrior that failed to stay the distance and got tuned over at Epsom.
I'm not sure he's the winner but can't see where the stamina doubt comes from.
I've got a few nice priced vouchers on the Young Rascal. With the draw he's been given and the rain thats been falling I wouldn't swap him for anything else in the race.
Saxon Warrior no certainty with his draw and first try at Derby trip. Weather forecast is terrible for Epsom overnight and I am definitely going to wait until after the Oaks to decide. I want to back Roaring Lion (bog & nrnb 9/1 in places) and Saxon Warrior as a saver (BP & nrnb hopefully 5/4) and am fairly confident they can both cope with G-S. Anything softer might bring Young Rascal and Hazapor into it.
I forgot to add that the 5/4 on here could prove a big price if I'm right whilst some books are odds on.
No 5/4 anywhere now..
No 5/4 anywhere now..
I'm off....to troll the city centre and get as much evens as I can. I think it may go odds on. I would weep if I was stuck here and it went off at 8/11.
If you listen to O'Brien Saxon Warrior is just getting better and stronger.
What a palaver. Anyways managed to get a nice few bob on at evens and 3 tickets at 10/11. Hope it dries out overnight instead of being all over the place. Not c0cky but fairly confident.
chavman
Date Joined: 04 May 12
Add contact | Send message
01 Jun 18 14:28 Joined: 04 May 12 | Topic/replies: 21,873 | Blogger: chavman's blog
hows big d stewy
Missed that post chavers. He's doing very well at the moment and will be doing even better if Saxon Warrior stots in tomorrow as he has an even monkey on it.
How's mrs chavers doing?
Date Joined: 04 May 12
Add contact | Send message
01 Jun 18 14:28 Joined: 04 May 12 | Topic/replies: 21,873 | Blogger: chavman's blog
hows big d stewy
Missed that post chavers. He's doing very well at the moment and will be doing even better if Saxon Warrior stots in tomorrow as he has an even monkey on it.
How's mrs chavers doing?
Hype horse. Plenty to prove.
Does anyone really know anything about Deep Impact.?
Does anyone really know anything about Deep Impact.?
shes fine. yeah ive got saxon in a double with cracksman (2/5)-they were both too short for me to back singles.-
although cracksman was very close to getting beat which would have caused me a dilemma as all the right people seem to be talking up saxon
although cracksman was very close to getting beat which would have caused me a dilemma as all the right people seem to be talking up saxon
If Saxon obliges chavers and you were in my home you wouldn't be drinking bow after the race.
no id be nursing a rohypnol hangover and my back doors would be hanging off
I have indeed chavers. Even Big D has a monkey on it. This is my first bet since I put up Peru to beat Scotland on the football forum.
Might be party time tonight but as you know this can be a cruel game.
Might be party time tonight but as you know this can be a cruel game.
Even Big D has a monkey on it
I knew I mentioned that somewhere....on here. Doh.
I knew I mentioned that somewhere....on here. Doh.
I think that Masar has a good EW chance and 4.4 to be in the first three is better than an odds on bet on the favourite.
chavers, Big D has won a few bob with my selections the past year or so but he's not really a punter/form man. However, if I mention one to him I fancy he has no hesitation going into his wallet. That said if he wins it's drinks time or if beat he accepts it gracefully and moves on....adding... 'let me know your next one stew'. Probably why he has a better strike rate than me as I often back two or three in a day if punting.
Plus, he can afford it.
Plus, he can afford it.
I forgot to mention chavers that I also have a reverse C.S.F. on with Delano Roosevelt. That bet was planted in my head after speaking to a certain forumite last night.
FAV 4 to 5 .. .10 to 1 . bar .. punters fleeced or what .? worst second best is around 7 to 1 .. NORMALLY .. CHANGED TIME ON THE wagering front right enough .. FAV will run no money from me .
Getting near showtime. The only small reservation I have is that Moore has done me few favours. Hopefully that will be resolved soon.
FWIW, this is my post on a similar thread (obviously Kincsems post is not here)
If the Epsom Derby was on good ground and maybe with a different draw, i think Saxon Warrior would be 4/7 today, although not a certainty by any means.
Well bred, much the best colt, unbeaten, lightly raced and still improving, his 2000 guineas run was the best trial so far and AOB has entered several to 'set it up' for him. What is there not to like.
I don't consider the 12f distance to be as significantly negative as some may feel, but by saying that, it's certainly not a critique of Kincsems excellent, well written post (22.20) and he makes some very valid points.
It's a small field, and precluding Saxon Warrior is not a particulary strong one either. Of course as with all Epsom Derbies, there could be a relatively unexposed improver, Young Rascal and Hazapour fit this description and I like the latter. I can't see Roaring Lion winning,
The draw in stall 1 is only a minor concern, it's a small field, but a negative nevertheless. The going will be soft/tacky, loose on top, not the best ground by any means. We saw yesterday that Cracksman only just beat the 33/1 Salouen (who's last win was in a 2 year old novice in 2016) and is 2/17. A brillant ride by Silvester DE Souza was responsible, and Dettori had to come over to the rail late to get up. It will be a very similar tactical race today.
As a large framed horse the course (and Tattenham corner) may not be so ideal and he wasn't foot perfect on the dip at Newmarket.
Domino has been mentioned in a few places above. I don't know him (only via posts on here) nor enough about roulette, so i will not comment on that, nor am i prosecuting or defending him, but i do think he knows the game.
He's got it right before, but he's also got it wrong, and on occasions, very wrong. He's not the only one though, i have, and probably most reading this has at some stage.
He's stated an opinion on here that's a negative for SW and layed it up with hard cash if you believe the post. Is he ramping ? I don't know, but doubt it, he's not going to look good on here if it subsequently hoses up, and may even do a Paul the B if it does.
On this occasion, i will give him the BOD as far as 'negativity' to SW is concerned. Together with the draw, going, tactics and suspicion that several positives are pointing to Hazapour is a reason i'm not backing him, but i certainly wouldn't lay him either.
I actually backed SW on here directly after the 2000 guineas, partly as a trade, but also with the notion just to leave it and 'see' on the day. I've traded out (minor difference) and backed Hazapour EW.
Good luck.
If the Epsom Derby was on good ground and maybe with a different draw, i think Saxon Warrior would be 4/7 today, although not a certainty by any means.
Well bred, much the best colt, unbeaten, lightly raced and still improving, his 2000 guineas run was the best trial so far and AOB has entered several to 'set it up' for him. What is there not to like.
I don't consider the 12f distance to be as significantly negative as some may feel, but by saying that, it's certainly not a critique of Kincsems excellent, well written post (22.20) and he makes some very valid points.
It's a small field, and precluding Saxon Warrior is not a particulary strong one either. Of course as with all Epsom Derbies, there could be a relatively unexposed improver, Young Rascal and Hazapour fit this description and I like the latter. I can't see Roaring Lion winning,
The draw in stall 1 is only a minor concern, it's a small field, but a negative nevertheless. The going will be soft/tacky, loose on top, not the best ground by any means. We saw yesterday that Cracksman only just beat the 33/1 Salouen (who's last win was in a 2 year old novice in 2016) and is 2/17. A brillant ride by Silvester DE Souza was responsible, and Dettori had to come over to the rail late to get up. It will be a very similar tactical race today.
As a large framed horse the course (and Tattenham corner) may not be so ideal and he wasn't foot perfect on the dip at Newmarket.
Domino has been mentioned in a few places above. I don't know him (only via posts on here) nor enough about roulette, so i will not comment on that, nor am i prosecuting or defending him, but i do think he knows the game.
He's got it right before, but he's also got it wrong, and on occasions, very wrong. He's not the only one though, i have, and probably most reading this has at some stage.
He's stated an opinion on here that's a negative for SW and layed it up with hard cash if you believe the post. Is he ramping ? I don't know, but doubt it, he's not going to look good on here if it subsequently hoses up, and may even do a Paul the B if it does.
On this occasion, i will give him the BOD as far as 'negativity' to SW is concerned. Together with the draw, going, tactics and suspicion that several positives are pointing to Hazapour is a reason i'm not backing him, but i certainly wouldn't lay him either.
I actually backed SW on here directly after the 2000 guineas, partly as a trade, but also with the notion just to leave it and 'see' on the day. I've traded out (minor difference) and backed Hazapour EW.
Good luck.
taaking the fav on with hazapour,delano r ,and the pentagon , good luck !
Note the going has improved since i posted the above
fav has obv chance but draw a neg and we dont know how he will act on the course, same for most of field but a short price ,could well pish up despite negs but for me would rather have 2 or 3 double figga odds chances running for me ,
In the event that it gets beat and trades short, no, I will not be greening up.
Hazapour and Delano Roosevelt are drifting like barges.
Hazapour is drifting due to the ground drying out
massive gamble on the lion .... they left it late & steamed in
Moore couldn't have asked for more trouble but if truth be told it didn't stay.
And that useless git kealy wanted to lay Lion in every place market, he must be potless
never back a horse to do something it hasnt done before, ie. stay the trip
Oldgit1
Date Joined: 04 Oct 02
Add contact | Send message
02 Jun 18 12:32 Joined: 04 Oct 02 | Topic/replies: 2,397 | Blogger: Oldgit1's blog
I think that Masar has a good EW chance and 4.4 to be in the first three is better than an odds on bet on the favourite.
Very well done oldgit1.
Date Joined: 04 Oct 02
Add contact | Send message
02 Jun 18 12:32 Joined: 04 Oct 02 | Topic/replies: 2,397 | Blogger: Oldgit1's blog
I think that Masar has a good EW chance and 4.4 to be in the first three is better than an odds on bet on the favourite.
Very well done oldgit1.
Thank you stewarty b. Experience counts:-)
Also had it in an EW double with Tanasoq. And with two losers, Tanasoq and Midnight Blue in Ew doubles etc.
Also had it in an EW double with Tanasoq. And with two losers, Tanasoq and Midnight Blue in Ew doubles etc.
Thank you stewarty b. Experience counts:-)
Also had it in an EW double with Tanasoq. And with two losers, Tanasoq and Midnight Blue in Ew doubles etc.
Also had it in an EW double with Tanasoq. And with two losers, Tanasoq and Midnight Blue in Ew doubles etc.
lord skywalker
Date Joined: 23 Jul 07
Add contact | Send message
02 Jun 18 16:44 Joined: 23 Jul 07 | Topic/replies: 248 | Blogger: lord skywalker's blog
never back a horse to do something it hasnt done before, ie. stay the trip
I just hope willie shafter doesn't see that post..
Date Joined: 23 Jul 07
Add contact | Send message
02 Jun 18 16:44 Joined: 23 Jul 07 | Topic/replies: 248 | Blogger: lord skywalker's blog
never back a horse to do something it hasnt done before, ie. stay the trip
I just hope willie shafter doesn't see that post..
wd old git
I cant decide if the fav would have won with a better ride, it did get a bit slam dunked before getting clear running, but it plugged on and nothing more after that.
The winner also sailed past it before it got trapped. I think it will win another G1 though saxon, good horse but slightly to far 1m4f?
I cant decide if the fav would have won with a better ride, it did get a bit slam dunked before getting clear running, but it plugged on and nothing more after that.
The winner also sailed past it before it got trapped. I think it will win another G1 though saxon, good horse but slightly to far 1m4f?
skywalker is indded correct stewy..
when you went through the formbook 4 times where did it say it would stay an extra 4f?
when you went through the formbook 4 times where did it say it would stay an extra 4f?
I would have thought you would have asked him to post his lay steve.
was only an opinion i presume..but when you bet heavy you need all boxes ticked.
the will it stay wasnt. was a guess.
the will it stay wasnt. was a guess.
its like usain bolt running 400m..well he stays 200m well so he prob will.
SontaranStratagem
Masar was always well positioned and I was surprised that his price in running did not come down well before he started his final run. Not sure what happened as he was pulled out he either changed legs or put a foot wrong but quickly regained his momentum.
He should win more good races.
It was my best day since January 2nd. I was reminded of that by an E-Mail from Corals telling me that Caspian Prince was running today and that I had a good win from him last time he won. Although I was doing Tanasoq today I thought that I would give them the chance to win some back as I had not used them for a few weeks. My first thought after the race was that Tanasoq could win Musselburgh's big sprint next week but Paul Midgely evidently thinks he is now more than a Handicapper.
Masar was always well positioned and I was surprised that his price in running did not come down well before he started his final run. Not sure what happened as he was pulled out he either changed legs or put a foot wrong but quickly regained his momentum.
He should win more good races.
It was my best day since January 2nd. I was reminded of that by an E-Mail from Corals telling me that Caspian Prince was running today and that I had a good win from him last time he won. Although I was doing Tanasoq today I thought that I would give them the chance to win some back as I had not used them for a few weeks. My first thought after the race was that Tanasoq could win Musselburgh's big sprint next week but Paul Midgely evidently thinks he is now more than a Handicapper.
Stewarty back for his monthly visit...race off at 3.30 not 4.30..
Would appear a few should have had a bit more sleep.
Still the weather is holding up - no rain (yet). Keep praying for the antepost supporters of Ruling Court.
ord skywalker
Date Joined: 23 Jul 07
Add contact | Send message
02 Jun 18 16:44 Joined: 23 Jul 07 | Topic/replies: 248 | Blogger: lord skywalker's blog
never back a horse to do something it hasnt done before, ie. stay the trip
caveat.........unless you are getting double figure price.
Date Joined: 23 Jul 07
Add contact | Send message
02 Jun 18 16:44 Joined: 23 Jul 07 | Topic/replies: 248 | Blogger: lord skywalker's blog
never back a horse to do something it hasnt done before, ie. stay the trip
caveat.........unless you are getting double figure price.
I’m on RULING COURT ante post at 12/1, looks as if the weather has messed up that bet.
Saturday Update, the Derby looks a real puzzle to say the least, what’s the weather going to do, who will stay the distance, which ones have the improvement etc. So looking for one at a fancy price I’m on TORNADO ALERT each way at 40/1, there used to be a saying “4th in the 2000 Guineas 1st in The Derby” he ran well to be 4th in the Guineas, he’s only had 3 races so should improve, he’s ridden by Oisin MURPHY, so he’s the one for me at a fancy price each way.
All the Best
Saturday Update, the Derby looks a real puzzle to say the least, what’s the weather going to do, who will stay the distance, which ones have the improvement etc. So looking for one at a fancy price I’m on TORNADO ALERT each way at 40/1, there used to be a saying “4th in the 2000 Guineas 1st in The Derby” he ran well to be 4th in the Guineas, he’s only had 3 races so should improve, he’s ridden by Oisin MURPHY, so he’s the one for me at a fancy price each way.
All the Best
JPSER just needs to add 'deliberate misspellings' to his repertoire and Rico will become yesterday's man.
Very strange tactics on Delacroix, though the winner was well backed. Delacroix made all the running when he beat Lambourn over 10f last time out, yet they rode it as though they were doubtful it would stay today.
Complete mess of a race overall - horses careering all over the track into one another early in straight, dodgem car racing
another one for the 'Draw' backers, Lambourn coming out of the favourite 10 stall
noticed the winner jumped one of the paths early on
Lambourn following in his Grandfather's hoofsteps.
Galileo won his Derby drawn have been drawn in stall 10.
Galileo won his Derby drawn have been drawn in stall 10.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539