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Saxon Warrior is by Deep Impact (" The Hero"), who was by Sunday Silence out of the Alzao mare Wind in her Hair, and was something of a Japanese super horse. He won his first seven races, including the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas,2000 m, at Nakayama), the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby,2400 m, at Tokyo) and the Kikuka Sho(Japanese St. Leger Stakes,3000 m,at Kyoto). When landing the Kikuka Sho on November 23 2005, he become the first horse since Narita Brian 11 years earlier to complete the Japanese Triple crown; and the first unbeaten Japanese Triple crown winner since Shymboli Rudolf 21 years ago. Saxon Warrior's dam is Maybe, who failed to get the trip in the 2012 Oaks. Saxon Warrior is a full brother to Pavlenko, formerly trained by O'Brien, who never won beyond 7fs. Saxon Warrior won the Juddmonte Beresford Stakes on soft going ("kept on well") Punters are likely to see Galileo as Saxon Warrior's damsire and fall into the trap of believing that stamina is a given. However, as anybody familiar with the pedigrees of the likes of Galileo Gold, U S Navy Flag, Barney Roy and Night Of Thunder can testify, when serving as a damsire Galileo has tended to impart speed over stamina. The Jury is out (aka: you are taking 4/6 and guessing).
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I'd be very surprised if he didn't stay. Somebody raised question marks over his dam's stamina given her run in the Oaks,but that effort was as good as her efforts over a mile. It looks as though she didn't really train on. I can't be bothered to look up the sires of all the ones you've named but I suspect they weren't the same influence for stamina that Deep Impact is. He,as you rightly say,is from a Nasrullah line,which were very inflential at one time but have all but died out here,due to them being perceived as having more stamina than speed.
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Wanted every inch of a mile as a 2yo. Wins a guineas looking badly in need and hardly got racing till the last half furlong and people have stamina doubts.
If he was 5/2 you wouldnt see a post regarding his stamina as the place would be full of LUMP ON BEST PRICE YOU'LL EVER GET ON A ABSOLUTE CERT posts. |
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Of the four you have named 3 were by horses who were best at a mile or slightly less. The one that does seem a bit of an oddity is Night of Thunder who was by Dubawi,normally a reasonable source of stamina. His one effort over more than a mile was in the Eclipse when exaggerated waiting tactics were used and he made up quite a lot of ground before fading. Might have been a non-stayer but difficult to be sure.
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His stamina is the least of his worries after yesterday morning. I can see him going off around the 6/4 - 7/4 mark, but I would be very surprised if he won.
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What if we get a Sea The Stars scenario Derby, where they're mob handed making people think they're gunna make it a thorough test but instead they control a steady pace (presumably thinking Rip Van Winkle would do STS for toe), so the emphasis is less on stamina?
The irony of that race being that their one horse would have been suited by a thorough test at the trip and might have given STS more to think about - Fame And Glory, had his chance compromised cuz they hadn't gone hard enough. |
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They've declared 4 others as well SW, why would they do that if they think he's their standout contender in a relatively small field?
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Aidan O’Brien on Wednesday voiced his fears about the prospect of soft ground at Epsom for Saturday’s Investec Derby, believing conditions would not be ideal for his six potential runners, headed by odds-on favourite and Triple Crown hopeful Saxon Warrior.
Similar going concerns were expressed by Roaring Lion’s trainer John Gosden, with the chief market rival to Saxon Warrior easing to 6-1 (from 5) after 21 millimetres of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday raised the prospect of the first soft-ground Derby for 30 years. With easy underfoot conditions expected at the weekend, Hazapour and Delano Roosevelt were on Wednesday cut to 10-1 (from 12) and 12-1 (from 14) for Classic success. |
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Saxon being lined up for the triple crown suggests to me that this years crop of three year olds are poor and inferior to the older horses
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must admit when they showed him in the paddock on channel four racing before the 2000 guineas he looked quite muscular
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What year was the Derby last run in soft conditions...wasn't 1988
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Teenoso?
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Quest For Fame even?
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Teenoso was 1983.
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1990 good ground when Quest won.....must be Teenoso
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Maybe 'good' officially, but good to soft at best on time
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Holding back on jockey bookings, ffs
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Slowest time this century was Harzand in 2016 on officially good to soft, when they gave the going stick as 6.4 overall. Current quote from Epsom is 5.7 overall, but in the home straight, 5.5 stand side, 5.0 far side.
That could produce a race off the turn for the stands rail, which gets very messy when it happens at Epsom. |
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I was intrigued to see which one Donnacha was going to be put on and confidently expected it to be Delano Roosevelt, but no, Kew Gardens.
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What happened yesterday morning?
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i wouldnt lay this beast no chance,i believe that all the way through mums and dads pedigree theres stamina and classic winners.
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dmino is suggesting there's a problem...maybe the drift isn't just ground related
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Entrepreneur had a very similar profile to SW and was fully expected to hose up in the derby but failed miserably to stay at odds on. He was sired by SWs grand father sadllers wells I think , so I wouldn't fancy taking a short price on SW.
Also how many second comings have we had from ballydoyle over the years that didn't fulfill . |
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Great-grandfather actually.
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domino14, can you answer my question please?
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Not prepared to put my reasons on a public thread. Sorry but too risky. I layed him odds on to win £800 risking just over £690 and will be place laying him on race day. I am not laying him because of the ground. The place lay is probably a bit out of greed as it's a bad Derby and he should still place, but if I can risk £400 to win £800 say I think it's worth it. If he places I would still make £300 odd after commission, but obviously I want him out the three.
My reasons for laying him are pure confidential and I don't feel it right to post them on a public forum. I am betting the Aga Khan horse and Delano Roosevelt for £25 each as well. |
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You seem to be implying that there is something wrong with the horse that is not in the public domain. As an antepost backer you have me worried as I also intended to have a decent bet on the day. If you don't want to post on here, can you send me a PM so I can decide whether to trade out. Many thanks for your help.
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Don't let what I have said sway you in any way. You can make your own decision. I also don't know you so wouldn't feel comfortable passing on , on a PM to someone I didn't know in fear it could be repeated in the public domain and get me in trouble.
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domino14 is shrewd.
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Can you also PM me the info.
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If you come on here implying that you have inside information about the hot favourite in the Derby and then not reveal what you know people will accuse you of lying and ramping for your own financial benefit. Can you please just confirm with a simple yes or no that there is nothing wrong with the horse?
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Obviously he believes something is not right. He's as good as said that !
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So what can domino possibly know that makes him so confident the horse won't be winning? So let's look at the possibilities...
1. They had a behind closed doors race and he didn't stay? 2. Something physical has afflicted the horse but they're going to risk this potentially valuable stallion anyway? 3. The lads have revealed to their inner circle that they're gunna punt one of the others and don't want SW winning? What does domino know...answers on a postcard... |
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Number 2 is 1.01.
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I don't know if there is ANYTHING wrong with the horse. All I know is if he hadn't won the Guineas after yesterday morning he WOULDN'T be running.
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So what happened yesterday morning, blood tests or something of that nature?
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It really isn't for me to say.
If APOB wants to go public on the last 3 days preparation of the horse, that is up to him and his owners. If I owned him, there is not a chance in hell he would be running. |
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That is confirmation then that there is something wrong.
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Or a fantasist playing games.
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