WD

Whatever time of night is this please

Thanks

Summary of lays (all stakes to win £50 per day):

Progress 10/15
Daily profit +£50
Running p/l -£21.50

Overall progress 54/65 (including daily lay thread). 69 days (4 void)
Overall profit +£1607

Good morning Lampus,

A Blue, cloudless, sunny sky in southern Sweden (albeit only 22c later).

An open window is letting in the morning air and i can hear birds singing. I'm sure this is Gods retirement country

Ghost,

Sounds good to me, enjoy the time with the Grandchildren

Hi Guys,

Most, if not all of you know today will the last selection of the Saturday/Sunday thread and the last per se. I will post it later.

You're also probably aware of why i started this 'project' in the first place (if that's the correct description, i'm an engineer after all) but here's a run down anyway.

I was convalescing at home, reviewing race cards and decided to lay an AOB runner later in the day. It was at this point i thought why don't i start a dedicated lay thread until the end of the month, a period of 8 days. Laying wasn't new to me anyway, it would be a bit of fun and give me something to concentrate on during my home stay.

Several posters have/had lay threads, but generally they're simple posts with the name of the horse, meeting and time of race. I don't mean any disrespect to these posters in any way whatsoever, but i wanted to make mine a little different, more interesting to read for real racing enthusiasts, so i decided on a specific format.

I thought a maximum limit of 5/2 (high st bookie odds) would be a good challenge - only one lay a day - an aim to win a level £50 per day that i felt was a comfortable stake using my own money - post copy of the matched bet - give reasoning for the lay - occasionally select one i thought could win the race - and most important, a running P/L so everyone could see the progress and transparency. I also added humour into the posts on occasion.

This i did, and reached a record of 8/8, therefore making a profit of £400 (8 x £50). I thought this was going to be the end but a couple of posters asked me to continue so i thought why not, i was still at home anyway and i enjoyed doing it. I even got very positive comments from the forum daddy, Mr Willie Shafter himself, i think i ought to frame them.

I stated i would continue until i hit a loser/winner depending which ever way you look at it. Several days later, a new poster called Blank Blank, erm, sorry, Domino (only kidding Dom ) entered the fray and a rivalry started, albeit friendly enough. He's not everyones cup of tea, but he's knowledgable on some aspects, and i did like reading his posts, even if i didn't necessarily act on them.

I got up to a perfect 14/14, but then my lucky pin deserted me, i got done on a head bob by a well backed favourite (I could have been 18/18 if not for this). C'est la vie, 14/15 was not bad, a decent profit had been made and the thread had become interesting to others, so to me it was a good result and i more or less accepted the inevitable thread closure.

Lampus was the first one who requested i continue, a couple of others followed, so yet again i thought why not, and for the same reasons as before.

My record increased to 23/25 and the thread was attracting attention. I actually reached 32/36 at a later stage and had been doing some work from home during this latter period, but i was ready to return to the office full time. I was even thinking to stop as it takes time to choose the selection and type the write ups, so as as an alternative, thought i could create a new Saturday/Sunday thread for a period of 8 weekends only as i knew i was starting vacation on July 1st and wouldn't be able to post from where i was going. Well to cut a long story short i managed to keep both threads going anyway, even though i was back working full time.

I don't think it's coincidence my form dipped a little from this point, i simply wasn't able to review form, watch videos etc and put in the same level of effort i had been able to at home, i can't access Betfair or the forum on the company PC/mobile phone anyway. This could sound like an excuse, although it's not intended to be, but irrespective of this, i went from 32/36 to 54/65 (4 void) at close of play yesterday.

Without looking to make my head swell, i'm quite proud of the daily lay record of 44/50 (88% strike rate) although the Saturday/Sunday one (10/15 - 67%) lets me down a little, but if i'm successful today at least both threads will end in profit. This was always the ultimate goal as intimated in the early days.

There were days when i was unlucky, but equally days where i got lucky, hampered horses, photo finish head bobs and last flight mistakes being the reasons in both cases. These things tend to balance out in the long run anyway, so no hard luck stories. I feel i made significant misjudgement in 4 or 5 of the winning lays (Justify a typical example) but it's easy to say that in hindsight.

I never thought for one minute the threads would grow to the level of interest they are today. I've really enjoyed the ride and it was actually beneficial during my home stay, giving me something to get involved in rather than watch Discovery Channel (that's what we call porn over here ) or The Chase/Eggheads, although i actually like these.

The threads were not only about the lay, many on here contributed posts in whatever form at some stage or another, some names i had never even seen before. The well dones and back slapping was welcoming, although some of the comments elevated me to a status that wasn't warranted, but there was something else on the thread that was far more important, the fact there was no abuse, bickering, hostility or antaganism.

This wasn't my doing, it was equally shared by everyone who posted on my threads and i would like to thank every single person that did, whether it was a positive or a critique. So many thanks, the threads would not have been anywhere near as interestng without your input. It's very much appreciated and proves sensible racing debate is possible on here with just a little effort by all of us. There are a few kn@bs on the forum, but thankfully they avoided the threads.

I don't have plans to continue the threads, so my deluded followers Lampus and Ghost will have to rely on the true Messiah who i challenged to start such a lay thread yesterday (albeit more in fun). Mart (Burkey) is as mad as a box of frogs, but he's harmless and probably the most read poster on the entire forum. We all know the score with him, even if he doesn't, but he really makes me laugh sometimes. 

I've mentioned on here that i may consider a weekend thread, or maybe even a random day, but i'll decide in August and it's not a given by any means. Just typng something that makes it interesting and readable takes time. 

The full  summary of lays will be posted below, although i doubt i will be able to update it with todays selection (my airport taxi arrives at 16.00) and it's not important anyway.

Most of you are aware i'm travelling to West Java, Indonesia (3 flights to spend time with my daughter (studying at Uni) and i can't post from there, but i don't need to. There's a window of opportunity when we go to Singapore for a few days, although only in certain areas (oddly enough) where i can post, but again it's very doubtful. The weeks i spend with her are quality time, and i can live without betting when i need to. I know everyone will understand this.

Finally, good luck to all and many thanks for all the kind and wonderful comments. For those that are also taking vacation, enjoy it.

See you in August

Summary of the lays with finishing position and industry SP as follows :

April 23rd - Washington DC @ 2.60 - 3rd @ 6/4f
April 24th - Cristal Spirit @ 3.25 - 2nd @ 7/2jf
April 25th - Scorpion Side @ 2.76 - 2nd @ 15/8
April 26th - Getareason @ 2.52 (inc. reduction factor) - 3rd @ 7/4f
April 27th - Melon @ 3.69 (inc. reduction factor) - unplaced (fell) @ 11/4
April 28th - Mr Adjudicator @ 3.56 (inc. reduction factor) - 2nd @ 100/30
April 29th - Sailing Home @ 3.40 - 2nd @ 3/1
April 30th - Tamkeen @ 3.15 - unplaced @ 9/4
May 1st - Rose Berry @ 3.45 - unplaced @ 7/2
May 2nd - Swiss Time @ 3.15 - 2nd @ 9/2
May 3rd - Prabeni @ 2.96 - 3rd @ 8/11f
May 4th - Crossing The Line @ 3.15 - 2nd @ 3/1
May 5th - Honey Man @ 3.30 - 3rd @ 13/8f
May 6th - Bow Street @ 3.70 - unplaced @ 100/30
May 7th - Expensive Liaison @ 3.30 - 1st @ 5/4f
May 8th - Bengali Spirit @ 2.36 - unplaced @ 6/4f
May 9th - Shareva @ 3.55 - unplaced @ 7/1
May 10th - My Lord And Master @ 3.85 - 2nd @ 11/4
May 11th - Glory Fighter @ 2.10 - 1st @ 4/6f
May 12th - Dancing Star @ 2.79 (inc. reduction factor for NR) - unplaced @ 15/8f
May 13th - Curley Bill @ 2.94 - unplaced @ 9/4f
May 14th - Misty Bloom @ 2.60 - 2nd @ 15/8
May 15th - Ce De Nullis @ 3.10 - unplaced @ 2/1f
May 16th - Highgarden @ 3.85 - unplaced @ 5/2f
May 17th - High Horse @ 2.88 - 3rd @ 5/2
May 18th - Threading @ 2.28 (inc. reduction factors for 2 NR's) - 1st @ 7/2 (subject to R4's)
May 19th - Luchador @ 2.57 (inc. reduction factor for 3 NR's) - 1st @ 3/1 (subject to R4's)
May 20th - Tayzar @ 2.63 - unplaced @ 7/4.
May 21st - Royal Plaza @ 3.60 - unplaced @ 2/1
May 22nd - Indie Groove @ 3.55 - unplaced @ 3/1
May 23rd - NR. Void day
May 24th - Ce De Nullis @ 3.50 - unplaced @ 4/1
May 25th - California Daddy @ 3.55 - 2nd @ 6/4f
May 26th - Deyaarna @ 3.50 - 2nd @ 7/2
May 27th - Cliffs Of Moher @ 2.28 - 2nd @ 7/4
May 28th - Photographer @ 3.45 - 2nd @ 15/8
May 29th - Danehill Desert @ 3.60 - unplaced @ 2/1f
May 30th - Elerfaan @ 3.20 - 1st @ 15/8
May 31st - Palabres @ 2.62 - unplaced @ 2/1f
June 1st - Machree @ 3.70 - unplaced @ 2/1
June 2nd - No Lippy @ 3.40 - 1st @ 5/2
June 3rd - Roo Roo @ 3.60 - 1st @ 9/4
June 4th - Braes of Lochalsh @ 3.65 - unplaced @ 7/2
June 5th - Sizing Scorpion @ 3.20 - unplaced @ 9/4f
June 6th - Laugh A Minute @ 2.96 - unplaced @ 2/1
june 7th - No selection. Void day
June 8th - Great Beyond @ 3.50 - unplaced @ 5/2
June 9th - Justify @ 2.12 - 1st @ 4/5f
June 10th - Stanley @ 3.65 - 2nd @ 5/2f
June 11th - Big Lachie @ 3.50 - 2nd @ 5/2
June 12th - Caraveal @ 3.30 - unplaced @ 7/4f
June 13th - Afandem @ 3.55 - unplaced @ 5/2
June 14th - No selection. Void day
June 15th - Ship Of The Fen @ 3.08 - unplaced @ 6/4
June 16th - Liex Excelsa @ 3.60 - 2nd @ 2/1f
June 17th - Ravenhill @ 3.70 - 1st @ 6/4f
June 18th - No selection. Void day
June 19th - El Astronaute @ 3.10 - unplaced @ 2/1
June 20th - Pallaskenry @ 3.15 - 1st @ 7/4
June 21st - Dawn Trouper @ 3.50 - 2nd @ 2/1f
June 22nd - Just Wonderful @ 3.50 - unplaced @ 2.1f
June 23rd - God Willing @ 3.70 - 2nd @ 13/8f
June 24th - Crotchet @ 3.20 - 2nd @ evens f
June 25th - Contrive @ 3.50 - unplaced @ 3/1
June 26th - White Turf @ 2.86 - 2nd @ 2/1
June 27th - Gavota @ 3.30 - unplaced @ 100/30f
June 28th - Royal Cosmic @ 2.10 - 2nd @ 11/10f
June 29th - Lucius Tiberius @ 3.40 - 1st @ 9/4f
June 30th - Rayita @ 3.55 - unplaced @ 7/4f
July 1st - ?

Summary of Losses

Expensive Liaison - heavily backed and won on a head bob in a photo finish. I could have been 18/18 but for this result. Last of 7, beaten 16L next time out (albeit in a fillies group 3).

Glory Fighter - heavily backed. I liked the 2nd fav, Tin Hat but maybe i placed too much confidence in him (ran well in a good race since). A poor lay.

Threading - 2 NR's, 8/1 and the heavily backed 13/8f, although she wouldn't have won if her next run is a good guide. The 7L winner was impressive. A poor lay.

Luchador - 3 NR's, 6/1, 8/1 and 14/1. Won by 3/4L and a neck. 3 NR's can change complexity of a race. A tad unlucky maybe, who knows, but a loser nevertheless.

Elerfaan - I thought his previous run flattered him, once raced on very soft going, 66/1, cheap purchase etc. I under-estimated him, he was clearly the best horse and won easily by 4L, although the form is questionable. The one i thought might have won must be 'distinctly average'. A poor choice.

No Lippy - A messy race and maybe layers were unlucky with 2 runners badly hampered including the heavily backed favourite.

Roo Roo - Selected in haste due to abandonement of Kilbeggan. No excuse. A poor decision.

Justify - I didn't think he was good enough to win the Belmont stakes (3rd leg of triple crown) even though it was a poor field. In hindsight i should have left the race alone, but i'm convinced he's not the superstar he's made out to be, at least not yet.

Ravenshill - A very lucky winner. Turbo had led all the way, was travelling well, and 2L up when he made a hash of the last flight (traded at 1.05 before the mistake). Ravenshill was under strong driving at the time. The race cost layers £130 + the £50 that would have been won.

Pallaskenry - Won on a head bob in a very close photo. I thought the other one had won it. A bad lay at the office.

Lucius Tiberious - I under estimated him even though he was top rated. I should have stopped at the winner yesterday, but easy to say in hindsight. A poor lay.

Andrew seeing as all great things come in trilogies is there any chance of you doing a 3rd War And Peace style post to accompany the previous two :)

PS Ghost nothing wrong with Boxing Day !  Football, Racing  and Greyhounds galore, it's a punter paradise !

On a more serious note, I know we've had our confrontations Andrew but it's just been constructive debate about races and lays and horses, I certainly haven't looked to put you down or gloat if on the occasions I've been right, and by the same token been one of the first to say well done when I've got it horribly wrong. I hope you have a most enjoyable few weeks away and lets hope all these Saab beast planes don't fall apart during your absence. On a less serious note, Lampus wants a signed photo of you and asks if you can post it on the forum, ta.

Dominio,

Thank you.

I never once thought there was any animosity between us, just friendly rivalry, debate and differences of opinion, but that's what a forum is for.

As for the Saab mean machines, there's only 3 in the hangar (all on flight test) and they will be fine without my little input.

With respect to war and peace posts, the only one i wish to start now is a letter to Jennifer Lawarence giving valid reasons why she should start a loving (actually make that sexual) life long relationship with me. In time, i suspect i will have to change my ID to Andrew in LA

Andrew,

Every morning for the last couple of weeks my wife has asked me “What time is Andrew’s horse running?”.

I’m dreading Monday she’ll be heartbroken.

Andrew  if you do not me asking but have dom ever been  right
as for i know  if he say lay i  back
if   he say  back i lay

its profitable 

Its   raining   first time for a few weeks

Happysandwich,

I didn't think my fame (?) had reached housewives, but tell your good lady wife i'm flattered

Domino,

JL was the first name that came to mind, i actually have a list of several 100, although i do like fit and beautiful tennis players aka Ana Ivanoic and Daniela Hantuchova who i suspect are just waiting for a simple, Cornish engineer to come along and brighten up their dull and miserable lives

My daughter is 24, considerably younger than me.

Lampus,

Ask Domino

Despite your assertion Lampus, the ones I opposed, would have saved money, to the ones that one, -65 Threading, -80 Luchador, minus 75 Elerfaan, -75 Lucius Tiberius. That is £295 of losses, I wouldn't have incurred. The 4 I got wrong in saying they were bets would have earned Andrew £200.

So in actual fact, I would have been £95 better off.

Domino,

Your comments on my lays are fair enough and valid, although with Luchador - Thought was brave lay as only had one horse running for him in race, it narrowly won

There were 3 runners withdrawn 6/1, 8/1 and 14/1. Maybe not form horses, but it's always better to have more runners than the reduction factor as they can change complexity of the race and how it's run.

I agree Andrew, we differed opinion on the Luchador race, and I said I thought only had 1 running for you, you felt you had more which is why we disagreed. As it turned out you had 2 running for you (the horse who was a non runner, who you suspected had a chance has run since and was beaten out of sight btw). My comments above were based on why I disagreed on the day, not my opinions post race.

I said after the race I felt you got unlucky with Luchador, as the Haggas horse was given an easy and 2nd ran too green and inexperienced, if the race was run again now, I suspect Luchador would have come 3rd.

Domino,

I can't remember all the details of the race, but i created the summary of 'losses' as i went along and i stated 3 NR's on it (and reduction factors) so i suspect it's correct, but it's not a given. I could check back on this thread (I would have mentioned the NR's as they were withdrawn) or the RP but i don't want to, it's not a big deal anyway. Luchador won, i lost, and nothing is going to change that

Thanks for the kind comment above, i must have missed them (a little busy here).

All's Well That Ends Well   

The last lay of the day on this thread is :

2.25 Windsor L'Explora

No time for a lengthy write up and i'm sure you will understand bearing my busy day before i start travelling.

A well bred filly who may win races in future, but hopefully not today.

I'm surprised she's trading so short, in fact she's vying for favourtism on here at the moment. It's her first run of the season and she's meeting fitter fillies (and a gelding).

She will have to be useful and run to a mark in the high 70's at least.

Ran unplaced on the AW last year, her only run although it was probably 'educational'.

I think Goodnight Girl is the winner, currently @ 3.1. Possibly a tad unlucky LTO (troubled run) over CD, 2.75L behind How Far who is now rated 81.

Good to firm going today as before.

She runs off a mark of 73 today, but i feel it should be much closer to the 81 of the winner LTO. Good luck.

Lay @ 3.20

01-Jul-18
09:31:47    14:25 Windsor
Lexplora - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:129645813855 | Matched: 01-Jul-18 09:32:55    Lay    3.20    50.00    110.00
50.00
Matched

Backs

The buying money bet has to be the AOB trained Forever Together in the Pretty Polly stakes at The Curragh (4.40). I would be surprised if she got turned over, but i felt the same about Ventura Ocean yesterday (I hate the Newcastle track).

I also like Panko (currently 3.45) at Windsor (5.20). Readers will remember i tipped this one up LTO. He showed a good resolution to win that day, i thought he was beaten. His win the time before was actually impressive in the context of the race.

Finally, i posted on here after Germany were humilitated by South Korea that i would not mention the dreaded F word, so in the soccer, i think Croatia have to be backed at 1.87 to beat my neighbouring country, who are more adept at drinking and spreading Lurpak than kicking a ball

Croatia are quite a good team and deserve more credit and media attention than they get, i backed them to win the cup outright @ 36 in early days (apologies for the aftertiming but they haven't won anything yet).

Contrary to what some may think, i'm actually still in front on my world cup bets from day 1, although the profits have dwindled to double figures now (allowing for ante-post) and most of that will disappear if Croatia don't win today, but that's hardly likely is it. Good luck