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Maximum Stake: 10 points win or 5 points EW
As I'll need all the help I can get, all selections will be settled at BOG.
I'd imagine most selections will be at double figure prices and some will be more speculative than others, but it's just a bit of interest and nothing to take too seriously.
As I'll need all the help I can get, all selections will be settled at BOG.
I'd imagine most selections will be at double figure prices and some will be more speculative than others, but it's just a bit of interest and nothing to take too seriously.
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Replies: 547
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Dear Bruin, 1pt EW @ 25-1 (4 places, 1/5th the odds), 6.45 Kempton
Her form figures don't inspire much confidence but she hasn't been running too badly in slightly stronger grades over this evening's course and distance, not being beaten far in races won by the bang in form pair Coverham and Sonnet Rose, though admittedly she has work to do to reverse form with Masquerade Bling. Her latest start wasn't as promising, ending up being beaten over eight lengths, but she was sent forward from a wide draw and ended up fading out of it; that looked a strong contest of its type with the winner being totally unexposed and the runner-up Ubla having come out and won since. She could face competition for the lead this evening if she's sent forward again, particularly with Viola Park being drawn low, but at least she's better berthed this time in stall four, and hopefully this ease in grade will see her more competitive at the business end. Briyouni, 1pt win @ 8-1, 4.55 Brighton Briyouni is owned Ralph Beckett's wife and perhaps has been bought to give Emma Wilkinson some race experience, who was aboard last time at Kempton when he shaped better than the final result would suggest, being caught wide from an outer draw and sat not too far off a decent pace before fading out of it in the straight; that looked a reasonably strong contest which has already produced subsequent winners. The horse hasn't been with Ralph Beckett long and has fallen 4lb below his last winning mark, and while he could do with the ground drying out and his jockey's inexperience could be perceived as a negative round Brighton, he looks worth chancing at the prices for the minimum stake. |
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Hang on, what's going on with Balgair in the 4.55, given as a NR in the paper but still priced up with some books?
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Whatever, make Briyouni 9-1 with a 20p rule 4 should Balgair come out.
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Painful viewing there with Dear Bruin being nailed late on, but a small profit on the day of 3 pts, so I'm grateful for small mercies!
Running P or L: +3 |
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In The Red, 1pt EW @ 33-1, 5 Places, 1/5th the odds, 4.55 Ascot
In The Red disappointed on his most recent start when reported to have lost a shoe, but he had impressed in victory on his previous start over 7f at Lingfield (AW), making a big move wide on the track from three furlongs out and sustaining his run in the straight to lead inside the final furlong and draw clear from a subsequent winner. He's back on grass here and returned to a mile, and although he has failed to hit the board in two previous starts at Ascot, he does seem versatile regarding going and can race off a 5lb lower mark back on turf. |
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Red Sniper, 1pt EW @ 28-1, 5.55 Wolverhampton
Little sign of ability in 3 runs for Peter Chapple-Hyam in 2016, and then on the missing list 513 days before reappearing at Chelmsford in March for Robyn Brisland off a mark in the mid 40s. She didn't shape too badly there, keen off a steady pace before looking unlucky not to finish closer having not had the clearest of runs in the straight. Red Sniper then ran at Lingfield 11 days later when very weak in the betting, and in a race where the winner came from out the back of the telly as the pace collapsed, she had made rapid headway six furlongs out to dispute the lead before fading out of it from two furlongs out. She's had a three week break this time, and in the hope she's ridden to see her race out better this time, RS is given a speculative vote at a price. The drawn in nine is looking better now as four of the five non runners had been drawn to her inside. |
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nice write ups and gl with the long range pokes!
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Unlucky yesterday George
 gl with the season  |
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Thank you chaps.
Concerned about the mile on soft ground for In The Red. Oh well, at least the selection has been blessed by St Hugh. |
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Just modest late headway from the second selection, clearly limited but maybe a step up in trip will help.
3.6 points profit on the day. Running P/L: +6.6 pts |
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Mamillius, 1pt win @ 7-1, 3.30 Lingfield
Selecting horses dropping into claimers is not normally my bag, but I'm going to tentatively go with Mamillius. He has an appealing pedigree for the AW being by Exceed and Excel out of a Street Cry mare, but only made his AW debut on his reappearance at Kempton over a mile (both his wins have been at 7f) in March, when I thought he shaped OK, racing freely from a wide draw and pulling his way into a prominent position before weakening out of it in the straight, shaping as though the run was needed. He was never involved back at Kempton (7f) from a wide draw on his latest start, and having run in what have been two quite competitive Class 4 handicaps, he is now down in class into a claimer and dropped in trip to 6f. It hardly inspires confidence that he's also declared to run in a seller at Lingfield (1m) tomorrow, has been very weak in the overnight betting markets, and his trainer has had 65 runners under Flat rules since his last winner (though did have one run well in Listed company yesterday), but I think Mamillius showed enough on his reappearance to suggest he hasn't gone at the game just yet, and in the hope 6f doesn't prove on the sharp side for him, he gets the vote for the minimum stake. |
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As soon as I posted they went and pushed him out to 10-1
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Ran well, traded odds-on in the run, but at 6f Captain Lars just had his measure.
Unexposed on the AW and will be better back up in trip, so interesting to see if he's claimed, and if so, who by. Running P/L: +6.6 pts |
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 * Running P/L: +5.6 pts |
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He was up for grabs for £11K but it would appear nobody wanted him.
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he`s back in a mile seller tomorrow where the claiming price will no doubt be less.
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So why buy him today when may be able to get for cheaper tomorrow, is that what you're saying to me pieman?
Two potential problems with that, mainly he has to run first, and secondly if he wins he'll go to auction! |
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Your entirely right George that's the risk you take in not claiming it yesterday.
Still the risk would be around 15k to buy it once xs are added on. Against that it was and is entered in a seller albeit at a longer trip than the shorter trip it ran in yesterday.I think if its a 7furlong horse so both trips could be wrong The fact that its entered in a seller and claimer suggests it has a problem somewhere although he ran to his mark yesterday. Of greater concern was the price yesterday and today for that matter as its 3rd fav and yesterday was available at 1.5 for 3places and today 1.6 for 3places although not great liquidity. This could be down to it being a nr today but something is spooking the market as it should be a 1.3 chance imo . There has to be better fun horses out there but I maybe wrong |
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I'm going to pass today pieman. He's been lightly raced so perhaps hasn't been the easiest to train, but for an 80 rated horse with a pedigree for and unexposed on the AW, I'm sure there'll be a lot worse £11K purchases!
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Feithye Boy, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 2.40 Musselburgh
Trail blazer who made a satisfactory return to action over 5f at Wolverhampton on his debut for Daniel Mark Loughnane and first start since a wind operation, displaying his customary dash to lead and kicking clear in the straight before fading inside the final furlong, shaping as though the run was needed. He's not particularly well drawn in four and is likely to face competition for the lead, but he's back on his last winning mark and interesting to see how this speedy sort takes to this sharp 5f. Mont Royal, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 4.40 Musselburgh Mont Royal probably did well to win when coming from last to first at Beverley last July, but has been disappointing since and that has seen his mark fall to 1lb below what he won off. He didn't offer much on his reappearance run at Wolverhampton, but the race probably wasn't run to suit and he's still to prove himself on the AW. This track may not be ideal given how strong he was at the finish at Beverley, so could probably do with something taking on the fav for the lead, but I'm going to take a chance on him because he remains unexposed at trips in excess of a mile, the handicap mark looks a favourable one, and that Beverley win did suggest there could be more to come. Zorovan, 1pt win at 15-2, 3.10 Musselburgh Zorovan has shaped OK in both his runs on turf this year and is now 13lb below what he won off at Doncaster last season; of interest round here back down in trip in the hope he can get to the front from stall 5 and dictate. |
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Dreams Of Glory, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 4.20 Lingfield
Knocking on a bit now but his mark has tumbled and his last couple of starts have suggested he may still be capable of winning at this level; nicely drawn to attack and hopefully he can at least hold on for a place. |
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I think St Hugh might have nailed that 2.40, cuz that Pea Shooter that finished like a train at Newcastle to get up and win wasn't the old Pea Shooter who used to travel like a travelly thing and not find a great deal.
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Poor day at the office with 7 points lost. Zorovan may be one to keep an eye but the others offered little.
Running P/L: -1.4 |
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Mam'selle, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 2.05 Goodwood
Mam'selle didn't make the track as a 2YO, but her profile last season as a 3yo was that of an improver, winning her maiden, two handicaps and closing her domestic campaign with a good staying on third in the valuable Ascot Heritage handicap won by Duke Of Bronte, who is now rated 15lb higher after winning on his reappearance at Chelmsford. Connections went in search of black type at Saint Cloud on her final start of 2017, but on ground described as very soft, she failed to see her race having led after two furlongs. Her official rating of 89 leaves her with plenty to find at this level but interesting that her respected trainer is pitching her into Listed company again, and after only six starts, there may well be more to come. |
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Just found enough to hang on for a place having lacked the gears to go with the first two. Job done for connections though in obtaining black type. Probably worth a go at 14f on today's evidence imo.
Hefty rule 4 of 40p at the Betfair Sportsbook prices. Running P/L: -0.48 |
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Sarrocchi, 1pt EW @ 25-1, 4 places, 1/5th the odds, 3.35 Newmarket
A speculative selection for the 1000 Guineas, Sarrocchi had impressed when making a winning debut over 7f on yielding ground at Leopardstown at the end of last season, overcoming apparent greenness to make up plenty of ground in the straight and run on strongly to lead close home. She didn't offer much on her comback over the same course and distance in the 1000 Guineas Trial when perhaps the heavy ground was unsuitable, but what is noteworthy is that she was sent off joint favourite under Wayne Lordan when Aidan O'Brien also ran stablemates that had more obvious credentials on form under Ryan Moore and Seamie Heffernan. Sarrocchi will face quicker ground today, and it's possible she'll be sacrificed as a pacemaker (Lordan was on the stable's pacemaker in the 2000 Guineas), but it will be interesting to see how she fares in the market come post time relative to her stablemates, given the market support that came for her at Leopardstown. |
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just had a look at this horse, see it was ridden by a Michael Hussey when it won so I click on his name, see he rode a horse for Aidan yesterday and it won backed from 18/1 to 14/1 and no other rides, or any booked rides for near future, a combo to look out for eh, keep it hush though
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Brilliant 3% SR in Ireland over the last 5 years
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He's a sh
 cker |
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Running P/L: -2.48
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Undercover Cop, 1pt EW @ 22-1. 3.05 Beverley
Undercover Cop is now eligible for weaker races than this as his mark has fallen from an initial 74 to today's 67, so will find easier opportunities than in today's 0-75, however a chance is taken at the prices. He hasn't shaped too badly in all three starts this year since joining John Balding from David O'Meara, leading over 6f on his reappearance at Newcastle before fading in the last furlong as though the run was needed or 6f too far on that stiff track; then running into the in-form pair of Samovar and Warrior's Valley at Southwell, but not disgraced in finishing third; and his latest run at Doncaster over 6f when shaping better than the bare result suggested, leading until inside the final furlong before finding his stamina giving way on the soft ground. He's back down to 5f here, won't mind the return to quicker ground, has a handy draw in 4, with Lewis Edmunds back on board taking off a useful 3lb. |
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Hang on, try getting the name right
Undercover Brother |
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i was going to mention englishman to you
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They wanna run him at Windsor more often, he clearly loves the place.
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All the 'rags' were involved in the finish except for one
Right I'm off to buy myself a funny wig and a red nose... Running P/L: -4.48 |
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Zylan, 1pt EW @ 40-1, 3.55 Thirsk
Zylan may rightly be perceived as a Southwell horse but he is effective on turf and he caught my eye at Thirsk over 7f last September when seemingly travelling strongly but not getting much luck in the run and then being hampered inside the final furlong. A couple of wins at Southwell this year meant he returned to turf off an 8lb higher mark than for the notebook run, and given he has been beaten an aggregate of 38 lengths in two starts on grass since his last at Southwell in April, it's not difficult to argue he's handicapped out of it on turf, but his turf form does indicate a preference for a sound surface so it's possible the ground was wrong for him both times and his mark has been eased 3lb. It's a positive that Ben Sanderson returns to the saddle given his good record on the gelding of 4 wins and 3 places from 10 starts; what may not be a positive though is his draw in 5 and if the ground has been over-watered. Daring Guest, 1pt EW @ 20-1, 5.05 Brighton Daring Guest didn't get much luck in the run at Lingfield (AW) two starts back, poorly positioned as the race panned out and then being denied a clear run up the inside rail when appearing to have running left in him. The latest run at Kempton is easy to forgive as he was always poorly positioned from a wide draw and didn't seem to be on an even keel in the straight. He did finish ahead of today's favourite Balgair when the pair met at Kempton last October (albeit the latter was left with a lot to do having been dropped in from a wide draw) and meets him on 3lb better terms today. The main query about his chance today is whether he's as effective on quick turf, particularly as he's a son of Fast Company, but at the prices a chance is taken. |
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As soon as I posted they went and pushed Zylan out to 50s
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3.55 Bogart @ 8-1 for me but losing patience with the dirty rat
 gl George  |
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Good luck Virgin
Btw, wasn't "you dirty rat", Jimmy Cagney? |