speed rating

bloke on here called burkey is pretty good

You could try doing your own with a few tweaks otherwise you can follow any one particular system as they are all like for like within their own method.

Save your time -  or don't waste it  .... quite literally

I agree far less important in our racing than some make out.

don't utter those words if burkey is in earshot...!

thanks for the replies I think speed rating have a edge in the uk betting markets

Proform Professional is the best out there.

"Think" all you wish - postpaul ...

But if the best Speed Rating is from a race on Good/Firm ground - and it is running today on Soft ground ...


Then that Speed Rating will be about as useful as a similarly wet tissue is at trying to soak up water.

Agree with Onlooker on that front.

No value in bare speed ratings, firstly after the experience you will be concentrating on the top 5% of races, you would have lost so much learning you would be unlikely to ever recover it again, then you will join the majority of late learners making sure there is no value left in the group race market as you will probably all agree. There may be a niche somewhere in the game. but historic judges would have cracked it and probably ruined it passing it on, down their family bloodline, of which there is always one load mouth blaggard of a certain age group or immature at some point in life and yes greedy.

We used to call them bookmakers. they controlled the market. they made the market, alas their greed was their end, but many made a few quid while the Ape men caught up with knowledge.

The bigger problem not just in this sport is that people have not the money to spend. The capitalist system is failed again, best find or buy  them old gas masks boys, it appears they are testing the chemical weapons in preference to the nuclear ones (oh dear)

14 40 Cheltenham Cepage

There is a major issue in this country with the accuracy of going descriptions and weather reports from clerks prior to racing and the going stick isn't a reliable a tool as the going stick reports indicate.
How often do you realise after a race or two you've studied a meeting using completely the wrong ground this will be problematic for those who rely on speed figures i.e you've studied the meeting on the predicted Good ground and realise after 2 races it's G/S.
Granted this problem affects every kind of turf studying given the importance of the ground but with the over reliance on speed figures the problem is greater.

Speed ratings are a powerful tool, but only when they're accurate.  For them to be accurate requires an awful lot of work.  The main problems are that speed figures produced by organisations are too often automated, based on blunt averages, and going allowances that aren't adjusted retrospectively. Just take a look at the RP standard times and you'll see some anomalies that are hard to reconcile. Speed ratings produced by individuals suffer mainly because of time constraints:  the necessity to produce forecast ratings for each race, watch each race and have some techniques to establish whether races are truly run (such as use of sectionals).

I maintain speed ratings for the AW only.  The AW courses offer advantages that turf don't - namely that the rails aren't moved, there is a greater number of races per CD combination, horses run more often helping forecasting, sectional times (4 courses only), the narrower difference between going extremes and the pace of the races are usually more true because jockeys better understand the importance of early position.  Even then you run into problems - especially at Newcastle when the slow pace of many of the races make calculating the going allowance an art and using averages pointless.

Anyone attempting to produce accurate SFs for turf courses needs a knighthood given the paucity of accurate and reliable data.  The nature of turf racing places a premium on late race acceleration rather than overall race pace. 

The problem with the UKs lazy punters is that they want to be be fed the answers rather than get them themselves.  That means they use other people's data in which they can never be confident because they don't understand how they are arrived at.  Furthermore those organisations are also only used to feeding lazy punters.  Ask yourself this - why when sectional times for 4 of the all weather tracks have been around for over 2 years now does the racing post and raceform not carry them?

Good post Davros

speed ratings 

Any set of rating based on whatever you like will throw up winners. Speed rating are no different.

Speed figures are not reliant in any way on going descriptions. It is the going allowance that is important. This is a subjective assessment (made by an experienced analyst hopefully) as to how much the going has affected the raw times. This going allowance is generally made retrospectively when all the times are available. The allowance will generally be based on the assumption that seasoned performers do not generally significantly improve their speed figures. The allowance will be set to give experiences handicappers speed figures that are broadly in line with earlier figures.  The going allowance is therefore totally unconnected with the official going.

The major use of speed figures is in assessing the value of the form of a race. If the speed figure is low, it can be assumed that the pace was slow and hence less able horse are able to keep up with the pace. They will look flattered by the raw form. Horses that quicken "impressively" in slow run races are often over-rated in future races. Form rating 100, Speed rating 20 is a reason for extreme caution in assessing the value of the form. Conversely, speed figures which are close to form ratings are much more reliable.

Of course the obvious weakness of speed ratings on turf is the going allowance.
Sometimes referred to as a guesstimated allowance. Which can never be more than opinion when conditions vary so much.

This is not the case on the All Weather, so why don't the speed merchants clean up on the All Weather?

For exactly the same reasons why collateral ratings let us down so often.
Horses are not machines and trainers don't run them as such, and above all races are not run against the clock.
A win is the same whether the race was slowly or flat out all the way.

Dr Crippen - the going allowance on the all weather fluctuates greatly, the surface is not "standard" in that respect.

jimmythewon

Speed figures are not reliant in any way on going descriptions. It is the going allowance that is important. This is a subjective assessment (made by an experienced analyst hopefully) as to how much the going has affected the raw times. This going allowance is generally made retrospectively when all the times are available.

Going descriptions are VITAL when using speed figures to study races and find bets not having the correct going descriptions at this stage makes speed figures next to useless as you could end up studying a card on completely the wrong ground.

not having the correct going descriptions at this stage makes speed figures next to useless


more than happy for you (and as many others as possible) to believe that

I found my ratings were pretty useful on the AW when sticking to sprint distances, that is until Newcastle AW came along and buggered the whole thing up.

And I you
I will refer you to Windsor 30/6/2016

https://www.racingpost.com/results/2016-05-30

If your speed figures did the job on this day then I doff my cap to you

my post was to DI

eye know

mouse - I'm going to have to go back over all the Newcastle meetings - recalculate standard times, watch the races and recalculate going allowances.  I've concluded the only way to get accurate ratings there is to pin down slow horses placed prominently and use them to anchor the speed figures of the other contenders.  A major pain in the rear.

I reckon sectional times for last 2f could be the best approach for Newcastle, but anyway the turf season is picking up now and I has larger fishes to fry.

yes, you could be right.  I have them all recorded - that's the next project.

gl with that Davros, I may take a look at doing something similar next winter.

thanks

The going allowance is a guess, influenced by the race which is taken as the most likely to be have been truly run.
If the figures look out of line, they then simply adjust the going allowance until the figures look something like they'd expect.

The figures are based on class more than anything.
Taking a class meeting they'd expect fast times, and at a poor meeting the reverse.

That's a very superficial way of doing things, although I'm sure you're correct in that's how most are calculated.

How do followers of speed figures use their ratings?

I'd be surprised if they simply back the horse in the race with the highest speed figure.
For instance, how much account do they take for weight?
I read where one compiler maintained that since he stopped adjusting the figures he published for weigh carried in todays race, far more winners were being thrown up.

The logic there is of course, that a horse carrying a lot of weight will get an inflated figure not based purely on speed, but based as much on weight carried.

Then when it runs again off a very low weight, the figure is boosted again based on weight, not speed.

So according to that, weight and the clock don't mix.

lots of speed figures are speed handicap but I am only interested in the raw figures never seen a unfit horse post a fast time

How can you know that?

At Ayr today we had Azzuri with a last time out figure of 99 beating the second favourite by 20 lengths who had a last time out figure of 105 gained in similar class.

I'd say the second favourite wasn't very fit today, while the winner with a slightly lower speed figure was jumping out of its skin. 

The second favourite had beat the favourite 8 lengths at levels last time they met.

raceform interactvive had Azzuri top on speed and joint on on last time out rating performance

So clearly the speed ratings couldn't be relied on to indicate fitness here.

you mean 64 days off if so that's a positive

I'm on about the other horse that clocked the 105 speed figure last time out.
Beaten twenty lengths by any reckoning that's not it's best form.

And like I said earlier it had beat the winner 8 lengths last time they met.
At the revised weights you'd fancy the favourite to win on other considerations, but hardly the way that it did.
Anybody using speed figures here would have thought the second favourite would be ready to go when it clearly wasn't.

I'm not dismissing speed figures at this stage without delving a little deeper.

I just wondered how people use them? Like whether they take the best on speed and try to build a case around that, or use SFs to reduce the field  and arrive at the principles.

Dr C I can't speak for anyone else but when I was creating my own they were part of the constant issue I had with inaccurate going reports,I wanted to be in a position where I was confident in my formalae and could apply the methods to each ground,track and trip.
I was able to do this to a certain degree and had a couple of tweaks which allowed me to produce my own figures relevant to official ratings without any doctoring.
As ever there are plenty of snags for using them to punt and anyone using them blindly is guessing (I'm sure to get some abuse for saying that) especially without acknowledging the predicted going.
Regardless of figures the ground will always remain the key factor so in older horse h'caps it's possible to have relevant figures for every horse in the predicted race conditions ignoring this is bolox.
When there was a runner well clear in a sprint they were glaring without the use of SF's I found and the usefulness day to day is overplayed because of the indifferent pace factor in this country and the large number of track biases.

Where they are useful is when judging a like for like horse that has ran on the same track and trip on the same day used alongside sectionals especially with judging the abilities of a 2yo or even 3yo against older exposed horses,though this takes a bit more work and knowledge it is more factual and relevant than a blind SF.
I'm contemplating punting the 2yo's this year so I will produce figures that I can use and judge RAW relevant form as inexperience vs maturity and professionalism is another issue.
It's along winded way to say they can be part of the puzzle and have their uses but without being able to judge the prospective pace/ground horses will perform indifferently when those variables are changed,i.e you could have a front runner who's ran it's heart out going too fast but drop like like a stone in the last half furlong and produce a bad figure,and a hold up horse produce a huge figure in a race run to suit.
An old adage used to be something like 'speed figures tell you how bad a horse is isn't' which imo. is still true.

An invaluable by-product of compiling your own speed figures lies in the hours you need to spend watching races and reading form. Cynics would say it's the only benefit.

Realist could say that 'compiling your own Speed Ratings' ......
- gets in the way of the above  study - and wastes precious time (every Pun intended) for broadening such Form Study.

Thanks for your reply Denzil.
I was wondering if anyone uses speed ratings alongside regular methods of form study? 
Races are not run at a flat out gallop from end to end.
A change of pace is needed to win a race. It doesn't matter how fit the horse is if it can't quicken it's likely to get beaten by one that can unless they're all plodders.
Speed figures can throw us right off the scent in that respect.

So surely we need to looking for horses that can quicken off a fast pace, perhaps that's the best way to employ SFs?

It’s nit an exact science  but yes a handy tool , I use it with other form pointers ,  but alas one has to be a pretty clever cookie , to even have a chance of being remotely accurate ,  let me concur , as some of the previous posters pointed out , an accurate going is essential , so you can mage an estimated speed rating between heavy and fast ground , the other vitality missed out point here on the flat the draw is also important when assessing a speed figure , ie if you get a horse achieving a speed rating over 6f Chester  from say stall 12 and it’s running next time against a horse with similar speed figures , that ran from a faverable draw ,  so one must when assessing rating giving the former a plus speed figure as it ran at a track with draw bias ,  Chester in sprints is approx say 10 runners in a sprint from stall until it reaches the 1st turn , each stall number you go up . The distance covered it approx a length per stall ie stall 1 will be a length shorter dis to turn ,  duspoght the huge draw bias at this track , if a horse is not fast away and does not make the bend , it can actually hinder its chances as they find them self’s begins a walk of runners all josting to hit the corner ,  two other pointers 1)  if you have 2 horses flat or national hunt with identical speed fingers but one has produced that speed figure also over further 9/10 out of the horse who has predicted said rating , will come out on top , the reason for that is the horse who has produced it over further will sustain that run at said speed for longer , quiet simplily if it becomes a duel the horse with more stamina at same speed will prevail so long as it’s a true run race not a crawl .  Other pointed is if your looking at h/c races  Rem ave speed ratings are produced for that cksss of race , so if you looking at a horse say that done a speed rating 1-6 sec above standard time on good ground in a class 2.  Drops to a class 3 running against horses with similar speed ratings produced in class 3s the cksss dropper has a great chance even with slightly more lead ,   I  allow 2-3 len over a mile per class drop 3-4 over a mile 4 f  just a ball park but not a bad guide . Be lucky today , if any you where wandering why apples jade did not turn up st Chelt she was on season , one to keep your eyes out for !

In answer to your last line Dr C an overly fast pace won't produce a fast time and quickening is true (they all quicken at some point) but it's usually visually subjective due to horses slowing down at different rates.
The best times are produced from close to even sectionals usually at a tempo where the horses are able to relax best and use their energy in an efficient manner that is most important for any horse to produce it's best performance.
Pre race if you can identify races which will be run at an even or slightly better tempo early/mid race these races will consistently produce the best and most accurate SF's (as most runners will have used their energy efficiently).The best overall clockers (not necessarily quickeners) should be able to show their form under these circumstances.
As in all of horse racing the best horses are the horses that can run the fastest for longest that will always be the case,but they have their used their energy efficiently to produce their best performance.
We'll always have the problem of uneven tempos and horses pulling like trains and massively underperforming on that alone so if you were to employ relevant speed ratings you would be wise to do your regular form study with more emphasis on race scenario and pace.
An obvious one from yesterday was the 0-105 sprint where Amomentofmadness was fav and has all his best form making all yet it was obvious the horse wouldn't be able to produce his best as he had (skulduggery aside) no chance whatsoever of leading Just Glamorous and Caspian Prince.
He had a good recent time at Kempton (making all at his own pace) but under that race scenario had little chance of reproducing it (albeit on turf).

*have to have used

Ps tbe higher class of race normally the bigger impact a good speed rating has , ie of your running in a grade 1 at Chelt  your going invarabilly  have better cksss horses who go at a faster clip ,  in short you get more true run races  , this makes it hard for bridle hols up horses as  making up the defeciet after running a grade one pace is never an easy task .   So u need to do horses who are used to running in the fast lane yes u ajways get exemptions improvisers but from being at say a park coarse to jumping at speed dif Hall game !

Your a clever guy denzil I can see that in your posting  but speed figures it’s a dif type of breed takes ages  ,  but used in conjunction with other pointers it can be a leathel weapon ,  in the battle !

99% or punter think horses are finishing fast upnthe hill at Chelt , more often than not it’s an illusion , the horses in front are actually slowing down !

The value of speed ratings are overplayed vs time watching videos and actual horse/form study on a day to day basis,the extra hours producing them would only have been beneficial daily to those who can bet on early (day before prices) as alot of the obvious 'time' horses are collapsed in the market.

DenzilPenberthy    21 Apr 18 12:06 

The value of speed ratings are overplayed vs time watching videos and actual horse/form study ------------

Is there an Echo in here ?

I posted that a couple of hours ago.

Then we agree

Apr 21, 2018 -- 11:59AM, Burkey1885 wrote:

Your a clever guy denzil I can see that in your posting  but speed figures it’s a dif type of breed takes ages  ,  but used in conjunction with other pointers it can be a leathel weapon ,  in the battle !

I don't tell lies so can easily remember threads of this nature.