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differentdrum
17 Feb 18 20:33
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Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 13,223 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
If you listen to trainer and jockey this horse probably isn't going to run. He is near enough favourite for the Ryanair and probably should favourite over Un De Sceaux who last year beat a Grade 2 horse and a handicapper.

If they are so desperate for soft ground chances are we are never going to see him at the Festival. When he has been impressive on good to soft ground presumably the ground was much softer than given?

Right now he looks at the top of his game. In a year's time or even two year's time who knows whether he will be in the same condition.

Perhaps the lure of the Festival doesn't mean that much to those concerned but it is hard to be considered a true great and keep avoiding Cheltenham. I can't think of too many examples, if any.   

Hopefully, we will see him, but it sounds odds against unless the weather plays a significant hand.
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Report geordie1956 February 17, 2018 9:03 PM GMT
seen many horses give chelters a miss but the opportunity to go there at the top of your game are few & far and the ideal opportunity to win a big race there often doesn't strike twice
go for it i say; surely the ground will be on the easier side of good if not downright soft
Report wondersobright February 17, 2018 9:12 PM GMT
When he has been impressive on good to soft ground presumably the ground was much softer than given?

which race/races?
Report Meat Loaf February 17, 2018 9:15 PM GMT
Winning Melling Chase has just as must prestige as Ryanair if not more.
Report Steamship February 17, 2018 9:17 PM GMT
IMO he should be put away till Betfair Chase at Haydock in November. Winning the Ryanair at Cheltenham does not make you a great
Report Steamship February 17, 2018 9:17 PM GMT
IMO he should be put away till Betfair Chase at Haydock in November. Winning the Ryanair at Cheltenham does not make you a great
Report chavman February 17, 2018 9:20 PM GMT
ground and opposition are the variables
Report differentdrum February 17, 2018 9:27 PM GMT
The official ground at Kempton was good to soft and to my eyes he bolted up.

You obviously have a downer on the Ryanair but as I said name a great who consistently avoided the Cheltenham Festival?
Report Meat Loaf February 17, 2018 9:31 PM GMT
If he was mine I'd either wait for Aintree or supplement him for Gold Cup
Report wondersobright February 17, 2018 9:32 PM GMT
kempton was given as soft side of g/s (5.9)
if you remember last year claisse put 10mm of water before the thurs to produce ground that was good, g/s places (7.1)
that's significantly quicker ground at cheltenham even accounting for the scandalous amount of watering
Report wondersobright February 17, 2018 9:33 PM GMT
having said that how do you skip cheltenham with a 170+ horse
I know malcolm skipped chelt with dato star but in those days it was allowed to get firm, different era
Report differentdrum February 17, 2018 9:38 PM GMT
I can only think of two groups of people who wouldn't want to see him at Cheltenham, the bookmakers (particularly Corals who were standout price for a long time) and anyone who has backed the opposition.
Report chavman February 17, 2018 9:39 PM GMT
id concur with loafy
Report easymoney February 17, 2018 9:42 PM GMT
Aside from the Gold Cup after a drying fortnight and two sunny and breezy days after the Weds nite watering, will the ground for the Ryanair or Champion Chase (bizzarely not entered in either the GC or CC) really be that different to todays ... results and times today suggest that was Ascot was ostensibly gd to soft today.

Be very disappointing to see the North finallly have a worthy Grade 1 animal and them not even take a pop at something ...
If it actually rained early March a soft ground clash with Altior (and Min) would be a cracking prospect on paper.
Report wondersobright February 17, 2018 9:45 PM GMT
the ground today was similar to kempton imo

they've taken him out of the QMCC
Report wondersobright February 17, 2018 9:46 PM GMT
will be significantly quicker in march imo
we are already seeing drying days and g/s appearing
Report Steamship February 17, 2018 9:49 PM GMT
Actually I like Ryanair as a race. I'm not sure if it's the right thing for him at this stage, that said maybe strike while the iron is hot. Its all about opinions.
Report easymoney February 17, 2018 9:59 PM GMT
I agree nothing wrong with being a great 2.5 mile chaser ... I just hope to see the horse turn up.
Looking back at times today they do suggest soft ground but the way the races rode visually, with the flat bred winning the first, Minella Daddy and Regal Encore leaving the Sft ground specialists for dead and the 60's Icon mare having too many gears for the NH breds in the bumper, I find it hard to believe that the lush freshly watered ground at Prestbury Park will be something WP can't handle.
Report differentdrum February 17, 2018 10:12 PM GMT
Wonder, do you know how often the ground at Aintree is softer than Cheltenham?

They were also talking Irish options. I don't remember Malcolm sending too many in that direction. Certainly no guarantee of slower ground at Punchestown. Maybe they will just finish him for the season?
Report wondersobright February 17, 2018 10:19 PM GMT
not soft v often dd but there is more chance of more forgiving spring ground at aintree
Report wondersobright February 17, 2018 10:19 PM GMT
I would imagine he will run at 1 festival only
Report differentdrum February 18, 2018 12:30 AM GMT
They also seem to have an idea that he is better on a flat track. How would they know that without actually trying? Perhaps if they had already tried him in a soft ground race at Cheltenham it would have answered the questions? 

As for the King George target he clearly has plenty of speed and isn't from a family of stayers. He also seemed to stop very quickly after the line today. I wouldn't say three miles is a gimme at all.
Report 1st time poster February 18, 2018 4:46 AM GMT
HE WAS PULLED UP on the line AFTER SHYING AWAY FROM someone taking a photo on the inside of the track
Report wondersobright February 18, 2018 8:28 AM GMT
the horse resented the smacks he got on the run in also
Report wondersobright February 18, 2018 8:28 AM GMT
malcolm said do not hit this horse
Report Gordon63 February 18, 2018 9:03 AM GMT
if weather is good then Mr Claisse will water to ensure no faster than good to soft if weather is bad then mother nature will be in charge, either way the ground should be suitable, however this stable/owner will do things their own way so no surprise if given an extra four weeks to recover from what must have been a very hard race as they went a real pace throughout, and try (again weather permitting) either the betway bowl (depending on which horses go there from Cheltenham and whether they want to try the step up in distance this season on 2018 KG which has been their long term target) or the more likely melling chase - and for those concerned about faster ground at aintree, the whole 2016 meeting there was run on soft/good to soft
Report wondersobright February 18, 2018 9:34 AM GMT
the ryanair has been run on good ground (7.0+) each of the last 4 years
in his last 2 runs (high 160s, low 170s runs) waiting patiently has been running on at best g/s side of side (high 5s)

they said after he ran 2nd to cloudy dream as a young horse at donny, on the ground quickest he has ever raced on (good, 7.7), that he was sore afterwards
and he has also had knee issues last ssn
Report wondersobright February 18, 2018 9:36 AM GMT
if people want to believe he will be capable of winning a grade 1 on good ground then good for them

he might

but THEY might not have a horse capable of doing it more than once

he's only 7 slowly slowly catchee monkee
Report differentdrum February 18, 2018 10:09 AM GMT
I listened to the interview with Ruth Jefferson and to me she came across very well. She did say how do you know unless you try something and that is surely key. You could go on 'protecting' him and making fleeting visits to the track when in fact he might actually be up to the task but never given the chance to try. There is a risk with all horses. He wouldn't be the only one who went to Cheltenham wanting softer ground. Do those owners think less about their horses? How often do we hear from the jocks that it is good, safe ground. Is that just a meaningless phrase?     

That run against Cloudy Dream was in hindsight perfectly respectable and presumably it is fair to assume that he is a considerably stronger horse now. I am guessing lots of young horses have initial problems. He is only 7 but a very lightly raced horse who could be at the top of his game. If you avoid Cheltenham this year then if you are consistent you avoid next year and the year after with a horse who might not be in the same form. He could have 'gone' by then and there would be no decision to make.
Report wondersobright February 18, 2018 10:32 AM GMT
I thought she came across well also dd

and like I said earlier, it is a different era to when malcolm missed cheltenham with dato star due to proper quick ground
I am expecting it to be the usual spring good or mixture g,g/s, brilliant covering of grass, bouncy ground

I hope its sufficiently juicy enough for them to give it a bash, racing is so much better for having a north that is properly taking part
Report buddeliea February 18, 2018 11:11 AM GMT
Sounds to me they will do what they think is best for the horse.
I would applaud that personally,and knowing that, whatever decision they make should be respected and accepted.
Report kavvie February 18, 2018 11:19 AM GMT
horse is only 7 and cheltenham is a very attritional course.it bottomed many a good horse.  theres big easier won pots at aintree or punchestown this year and a summer off.then see how things are next november?
Report differentdrum February 18, 2018 12:04 PM GMT
Yes, of course it is the owner's choice where they go but it doesn't mean that decision shouldn't be debated. This isn't some of soviet state. I am arguing from a point of view that I want all the best horses to turn up at Cheltenham. It should be about competition. I can't think of one other horse who would be near enough favourite who will be swerving Cheltenham on account of the ground, let alone one who would be favourite for a Grade 1. Is the ground going to be perfect for all those horses, obviously not.
Report sageform February 18, 2018 1:30 PM GMT
I am surprised that they are having doubts now. If it looked likely to be fast side of good then fine.
Report buddeliea February 18, 2018 3:09 PM GMT
Of course it can be debated....free country and all that,and any debate on here will be done by people who do not know the horse as well as those that are making the decisions.
Therefore any decision made has to be respected and accepted as the best thing for the horse and its future.
I would think the horse will be left in until the going is known,maybe the day itself.
Its well known he may not run,so at least any bet placed can bear that in mind.
Report impossible123 February 18, 2018 3:18 PM GMT
I think if the ground was good or better then an abstention is sensible and wait for another day given his main target is the King George. Otherwise, give it a go as he's a chance 2nd to none even with UDS present; if UDS is not have a go too even on good ground, and only ride to win unless no chance from 5 fences out, I think.
Report brendrew February 18, 2018 4:11 PM GMT
i think theyll give it a miss.stable will run cloudy dream for a place...
Report differentdrum February 18, 2018 5:40 PM GMT
More negative quotes from the trainer today. It is already becoming tiresome. It seems they have already made the decision so just say he isn't running rather than turning it into a soap opera.

Yes, everyone knows it is an undulating track. That hasn't stopped many very good horses in the past. It should be a challenge rather than a problem. Is it impossible that Waiting Patiently could actually take to the place and come away a better horse for the experience? There is only one way to find out. Nobody actually knows for sure unless you try.

Contrast the attitude with that of those connected with Sam Spinner. It is guesswork how he will take to track and I am sure he would like a nice bit of soft ground as well but there has been no suggestion he wouldn't take his chance.
Report GAZO February 18, 2018 5:59 PM GMT
Would imagine they will stick to whatever the trainers dad had to say before he passed away
Report buddeliea February 18, 2018 6:10 PM GMT
Whats the problem here? Is this all about bets already placed without nrnb concession?
Report hulk23 February 18, 2018 8:03 PM GMT
i assume so.  if you've back un de sceaux, fox norton or top notch for the ryanair you clearly don't want WP anywhere near cheltenham on march 15th ...
Report buddeliea February 18, 2018 8:22 PM GMT
Yep, and if you have backed WP,you want the opposite.
I get all that,and its especially frustrating if one has backed WP and then you see that yesterday,but its been known that the connections of the horse are concerned about his soundness and the ground he runs on.
Connections will do what they think best for their horse, not a punters pocket.
Report One Nation February 19, 2018 12:27 PM GMT
I'd avoid Cheltenham like the plague unless it came up soft. Who cares about the Ryanair - a nothing race imo. I could see him being run off his feet on quick ground round there.

2m 4f race at Aintree would be a good target, then step up in trip and target the King George next winter.
Report equine flew February 19, 2018 12:34 PM GMT
Aintree is very late this year.  In Mid April he is perhaps even more unlikely to get his ground.
Report buddeliea February 19, 2018 12:45 PM GMT
They have said they would not be bothered if he did not run again this season.
I get the impression the King George is the big race they want,and only suitable ground will see him in other big races before then. Seems to me they will not do anything they feel would jeopardise his chances of winning the King George. Reckon this has been the plan for a while to be honest.
Report the dealer February 19, 2018 12:57 PM GMT
if they said he wasnt going to run at Cheltenham and it did,they would get ripped apart on here,probably started by the OP. at present they are saying it is doubtful but things could change. horses in certain races could become non runners,the horse itself might show them he is ready to go, the weather, ground could come in his favour. as far as i am concerned they are doing nothing wrong, good luck to them in the future where ever they go.
Report buddeliea February 19, 2018 1:00 PM GMT
Absolutely.
Thing is they have been up front about the horse and everyone knows the score.
No poncing about like you get with some yards that's for sure.
No punter can have any complaint, whether they have backed him or not.
Report differentdrum February 19, 2018 1:09 PM GMT
So the Ryanair is a nothing race? As far as I can see if that is the case nothing races are all this horse is going to be winning for the rest of his wrapped up in cotton wool career. Personally, I don't think he will stay three miles and if you read the quotes neither does the jockey. So they will ignore his input and effectively throw a dart at the King George?

I wanted him to win on Saturday but in hindsight I should have been routing for Cue Card. The two horses are clearly chalk and cheese. One has turned up year after year not shirking a challenge while the other wants absolutely everything in his favour. Imagine how many horses would actually pitch up at Cheltenham if their connections adopted a similar attitude. It would finish the sport.

It is assumed that Waiting Patiently has reached a level because of the conservative approach to his career. Nobody knows for sure if that assumption is actually correct.
Report the dealer February 19, 2018 1:13 PM GMT
they are not machines and everyone is different, he is what he is and im sure they know the horse far better than anyone on here. as from shirking a challenge, a nonsense statement imho.
Report hulk23 February 19, 2018 1:13 PM GMT
could argue the king george is becoming a nothing race - probably be 4/5 runners, is 9 months away and is worth a lot less than the ryanair.
Report One Nation February 19, 2018 1:50 PM GMT
If MORE connections didn't view Cheltenham as the be all and end all the code would be in better shape - the season is completely lop sided now with everyone targeting Cheltenham almost to the exclusion of all else.

The Ryanair is a ghastly contrived affair only created to facilitate the diluted 4 day affair the festival has now become, detracting from both the Gold Cup and the Champion chase. I wouldn't give it the time of day, and being sponsored by that loathsome budget airline hardly lends it prestige. The King George on the other hand is steeped in history and has been won by some of the all time greats.
Report equine flew February 19, 2018 1:57 PM GMT
Only 3 of the last 15 King Georges have raced on SOFT or HEAVY.   So there it is more than likely he may not get his ground in December.   To forfeit every other opportunity in the hope he gets soft ground at Kempton seems ludicrous.
Report hulk23 February 19, 2018 2:20 PM GMT
no guarantee of ground, no guarantee on trip, no guarantee the meeting will go ahead as planned, no guarantee the horse will still be sound, and £70k more for winning the ryanair.

apart from that ....
Report the dealer February 19, 2018 2:21 PM GMT
yeah but for the owners its all about the horse and not money driven
Report wondersobright February 19, 2018 2:31 PM GMT
good post one nation 1.50pm
Report Autocue February 19, 2018 2:37 PM GMT
I don't see the point of running him in the Ryanair. They have been patient with the horse so far so why change that now? He had his hardest race yet on Saturday and seemed very keen to stop after the winning post which to my mind doesn't augur well for the Cheltenham hill. I'd give him a break and bring him back for Aintree or Punchestown or else put him away. I'd give him a trial at Cheltenham next season rather than try to find out if he handles the track at this year's festival. The chances of him getting his preferred ground at Cheltenham are low anyway. Year after year Claisse has demonstrated he has no control over his drainage system and he has to produce artificial good to soft by watering. The only way you're going to get soft is if it rains close to the race (that would be bucking a long trend for Cheltenham in March) and recent events have shown the watered ground quickly turns into a bog which would then bring into question the horse's stamina. There is no shame in swerving the Ryanair in my opinion.
Report NEVIS B February 19, 2018 2:42 PM GMT
Would love it if they swerved Cheltenham and went to Aintree for Melling.  Firstly cause could be the best thing for the horse and secondly to send the two fold message that Cheltenham isn't the be all and end all and the Ryanair shouldn't be a grade 1.

Good luck to Ruth and horse but made a mistake not keeping him entered for Champion Chase.
Report sageform February 19, 2018 4:25 PM GMT
Autocue can't see the point in running the best (or may be second to UDS) 2.5 mile horse in training in the most valuable 2.5 mile chase in the racing calendar! Strange.
Report sageform February 19, 2018 4:30 PM GMT
I really can't see what running in the Ryanair has to do with his chance in the King George 8 months later. If conditions are suitable at Cheltenham and they are happy with the horse, why not run? If it was mine, the name of the sponsor would not be a factor. Huge prize for a specialist 2.5 horse. I agree that Cheltenham should not be the only target for horses but they have just run him in the Ascot chase which must be one of the top four 2.5 mile chases in the season and he strolled it.
Report wondersobright February 19, 2018 4:38 PM GMT
prize money is really not the issue here, its the ground that is the issue & how hard he will have to run to win a grade 1 on likely good ground & the aftermath of the race (which a lot of people on here forget about)

if the ground is too quick for the horse & they run & he gets jarred up by it that might be it for the ssn and a good chunk of next ssn also given the history of the horse

sound horses have implied prize money from future races

crocked horses don't
Report buddeliea February 19, 2018 4:41 PM GMT
If conditions are suitable at Cheltenham and they are happy with the horse, why not run?

In that scenario he will run, i would think,unless they simply dont fancy the course for him, in which case you can forget future festivals as well as this one.

But he wont run cos people on here have had bets.....that is what those that are moaning about him not running are going on about i presume.
Report wondersobright February 19, 2018 4:43 PM GMT
if its good ground I cannot see him running

would have to be predominately g/s for them to take the chance imo

the stuff about the course is absolute bollox imo
Report buddeliea February 19, 2018 5:11 PM GMT
I think it will have to be soft.No good in the description.
So basically it has to rain during the week.
Report equine flew February 19, 2018 5:13 PM GMT
Connections seem terrified of their horses losing these days.   There is no disgrace in not winning (especially if not your ideal conditions) but  as long as the ground is not rattling, they should run it.
Report buddeliea February 19, 2018 5:16 PM GMT
They are not afraid of losing,they are afraid he will get injured if they run him on unsuitable ground.

I dont really know what is so difficult to understand.
Report differentdrum February 19, 2018 5:22 PM GMT
Was it you who said it was okay to debate the subject but now you are talking about ante-post punters moaning about losing money?

You clearly haven't read the posts because they don't refer to moaning about losing money although it would be perfectly reasonable to be frustrated when 99/100 people wouldn't be so negative about the horse taking his chance.

As far as I can see you have added nothing bar just agreeing with the connections. I already know their thoughts.
Report equine flew February 19, 2018 5:32 PM GMT
buddeliea, I think we are agreeing.  If it is g/s they should defintiely run it.. right?
Report duffy February 19, 2018 5:34 PM GMT
How the fook is Aintree going to provide suitable ground a month later, it'll be bone hard by then.Crazy
Report buddeliea February 19, 2018 5:37 PM GMT
Ok,if this is not about bets placed then i humbly apologise.
It seemed that may be the case.

Yes you already know their thoughts, but you seem to find it hard to understand them.And questioning them.
I am trying to help you and others to understand.
Report the dealer February 19, 2018 5:39 PM GMT
do you have an ante post bet on it for the Ryanair DD ?
Report buddeliea February 19, 2018 5:42 PM GMT
Equine, i read it as it has to be at least soft for the horse to be considered......not good/soft.

I am not having an opinion on him running,because the reasons being given are health reasons,and i dont know enough about the horse's health,or potential problems that could be caused by running him om ground the connections see as unsuitable.
Report equine flew February 19, 2018 5:44 PM GMT
g/s is safe racing ground, so if it misses the race on that going, they are just dodging it imo
Report the dealer February 19, 2018 5:47 PM GMT
some horses can run every other week,some need much longer between races. like budd says we dont know enough about the horse to make an assumption that if the going is good to soft, they are dodging it if it doesnt run
Report hulk23 February 19, 2018 5:47 PM GMT
sounds like they're waiting for the welsh national, with that big lake round the bottom bend ...
Report the dealer February 19, 2018 5:48 PM GMT
, i doubt its all about the ground imho
Report buddeliea February 19, 2018 5:52 PM GMT
Well i personally would agree with g/s being safe racing ground, but it seems its not for Waiting Patiently.
Or maybe its a combination of Cheltemham and the ground......i mean for them to run WP at a course they aint sure suits him,they want the ground at least soft. On a flat track they may run on better ground??
Report sageform February 19, 2018 7:28 PM GMT
As I have said, if the going or the horses health are not spot on, they have a reason to not run in the Ryanair. What I find puzzling is that they seem to be leaning against running whatever the conditions on the day or the opposition. What other race over 2.5 plus miles over fences is worth £199000? Gold Cup, King George and Grand National. Horses with delicate legs nearly always break down after the summer break, not before. What would Douvan, Coneygree or Don Cossack have won had they waited another year to run at the top level?
Report impossible123 February 19, 2018 8:02 PM GMT
I think it is the age and experience of the horse plus the nature of the Cheltenham course. Nevertheless, if ground is soft/heavy a participation is more likely given the temptation of the prize money and prestige associated.
Report wondersobright February 19, 2018 8:13 PM GMT
let's not compare horses, the optimal conditions and the constitution of each horse is different
Report gpz6316 February 19, 2018 10:04 PM GMT
sounds like she wont send him to me . punters immediately advised not to punt him / difficult course , everyone else is obsessed with chelts ( not me ) they go very quick there , hes a young horse done his winning on galloping tracks  etc . id get out if i could sageform
Report Autocue February 20, 2018 9:16 AM GMT
All winning the Ryanair proves is that you're best on the day of the horses that are too slow for the champion chase and not strong enough for the gold cup. I don't see the problem with swerving that race this year and going for a genuine top class race at the festival next year. I'm sure fear of other horses doesn't come into it at all as has been suggested on here.
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