Hi Kemoh,

Thanks and no worries, as you said, Just a bit of banter.

You seem to have upped your game recently with your tips, keep it going, all the best.

13) Chelt 13:50 Exitas @4.6

Rare for me to put up a favourite

Escapee - try applying a 'not less than 5/1' filter with your selections. It should improve your long term profitability.

"The reality is that if you find value bets then you will make a profit in the long term".

Yes, I would say 'long term' is about a year. Well it is for me anyway! Expect losing months, but for a successful system to show that it's working 'long term', you shouldn't have a losing year. If you do, then you need to rethink your system.

Filters I believe are very important in my view. I have 3 filters in my system selections, one of then being the 'not less than 5/1' filter.

Talking of value, if you're able to get good prices the night before and then see the price of your selection drop markedly, then perhaps you would be justified in saying that you've picked a value bet. They don't always win of course, but at least if they do you would be happy in the knowledge that you have beaten the SP. There is very often a Rule 4 to contend with in this scenario, but even allowing for that you still may be able to beat the SP.

There have been cases where, say, a 10/1 selection picked the night before ends up as, say, 9/4 favourite and occasionally no Rule 4 applied. Fairly rare, but it does happen.

McCoy Carp - yes, I admit the 5/1 rule is a bit arbitrary. It's just a figure I chose some years ago and it's worked out successfully over time to give me an ROI of about 28% average over the years that I've been operating my system. I did contemplate at one point of increasing the 5/1 to 8/1 and I think that that would have increased my overall long term profit. But the status quo has proven itself and the spreadsheets that I've created show a continuous upward long term trend (with the occasional downward blip), so I'm reluctant to change anything at the moment. A bit like if it ain't broke, then why fix it! Yes, maybe a few tweeks here and there could improve long term performance, but I did some tweaking in the early years and am satisfied that the system is pretty good.

Regarding losing years, well I haven't had one yet in the nearly 3 years that I have been running it, but give me another 7 years of results and I'll have a clearer picture, but I'm pretty confident that there won't be one, mainly because my system incorporates a daily multibet which is VERY successful once or twice per year. On one or two days per year I get a return of many thousands of pounds in one day which obviously is crucial to the annual profit. Miss out on that one successful day and it means a drastic reduction in the annual profit for that particular year. Having said that, my single bets are profitable long term as well, so both types of bets are very important for the long term success of my system.

Escapee - in my experience, the reality has been that the 5/1's have only a slightly more chance of winning than the 25/1 selections. Looking back through my records, I see it over and over again, that my 14/1 plus selections seem to win just as much and sometimes more often than the lower priced ones, which is why years ago when I started I chose the 'not less than 5/1' ruling and perhaps changing the 5/1 to 8/1 on that basis would prove to be even MORE profitable long term! There's no doubt in my mind that that is the case.

14) Newcastle 14:20



Diodorus, Unloved in the ring, I'm on at 18.5 and 20 now 23-24

odds on 4/9 winner of 11 runners last time out

15) Chelms 18:30 Msaikah

$300,000 unraced Cumani trained horse.

A few with prospects on this race but wouldn't take much for this to sieze the honours

I wouldn't be depressed about your results so far at all. In fact looking forward to seeing how it progresses over the next 6 months or so and beyond!

Stop the search here.  Lay ALL Henderson favourites.

16) Southwell 13:40 Serabrina

Got some on at 38, trying for some more

Withdrawn!

No bet then


(Thanks aasbff)

16) Wolv 15:25 Point North win/place @ around 46/11.5 ( I'm half on and looking to get a bit more on )

4 Point North (IRE)
4-time C&D winner. Latest win here in June. 20/1, last of 8 in handicap at this C&D 18 days ago. Bounce back called for.

Looking for the bounceback

18) Kemp 5:10 Global Pass

I'm half on at 14, will get more on nearer start time

4 Global Pass160,000 gns half-brother to useful 1m/8.3f winner Clotilde and 2-y-o 7f winner Marylebone.
Yard can ready a newcomer and interesting to see what the market has to say. Fitted with a hood.

Favourite City Gent has a reasonable chance but far to short at 1.9x, tempted to start laying this as well, awww phuck it
bet 19) 1 unit (£10) LAY City Gent @1.9 (not matched yet)

Sorry to butt in, but may I suggest that you ignore the result of the race in your analysis but concentrate on beating SP.

Because in the long run it is beating SP that provides the profit potential and judging by your spread sheet you are failing to do that and therefore WILL lose in the long run.

By taking a price that is bigger than the BSP.

Betfair is not pool betting.

HTH.

I'm merely pointing out what you need to achieve in order to meet the OPs criteria.

If I knew the answer, I wouldn't be broadcasting it on here, I'd be too busy implementing my own strategy.