"Drifters don't win" - busted

Thanks all, will have a more detailed look at it all a bit later - got to go to work now

McCoy Carp -

From the above - You are prepared to bet £300 on all Drifters - But only £200 on all Shorteners.

Yet -  you are taking Early Morning Prices with the Bookies because you think that those Prices are VALUE - and, therefore, presumably, EXPECT those horses to SHORTEN.

From your records - ADD £100 at BSP to all your Winners that SHORTENED - although with my method you will, in a fair number of instances, have got that £100 Matched on the Exchange at a price equal to your Bookie bet.

Add up the additional Profits - and then Deduct £100 for each Shortener that did not win.

Therein lies the answer.

Barton, I was using RPR for the 6.45.
Champarisi 85 4/1
Losingmyreligeon 79 despite finishing last in his only start!
Snax 77.

I know the winner had more experience but on those ratings and in the absence of anything else being rated, surely 4/1 (longer on here) was the wrong price.

Hard to say imo, even after the race. I didn't see the race to be honest and not sure why the two best backed horses were tailed off. Maybe they are no good. Maybe they have ability and didn't show it today for some reason. Winner was a cheap horse with 3 defeats round the gaffs under her belt. Not sure I would have been piling it at 4-1. But I agree with you that public perception of the stables will have been factored into the price.

From page 1 of the pro-punters handbook:
Rule 1: Never bet at SP
Rule 2: Never bet at BFSP

Get what you can on early, then if you want to top up the best move is to set up a bot to dripfeed it over last 10 minutes so.

Mouse, that depends on your stake. For small ish stakes your performance to BFSP will always beat your bet dripping, it will also always beat betting the lot 10 seconds to the off. The problem lies with the fact that as you bet more heavily you will canabalise your own BFSP and even more so at longer prices where it will take less of a stake to canabalise your BFSP

Olias, if you set it to stake a fixed % of your bank, then hopefully those smallish will become mediumish stakes and so on. I've no idea how much it would take to canabalise BFSPs, not much I'd expect. I've only ever had the odd tenner on at BFSP for testing purposes.

Another drifter beaten for me, Cribbs Causeway 9-2 early out to 7-1 SP. Don't know what the BSP was as fortunately I never backed it BSP as I've been out & got my times mixed up. Proform have the race as going off at 5pm but for some reason it went off at 2.35? Something to do with Ayr being abandoned I'm guessing? Here's the rest of my bets for today, see how we get on:

5.0 Newm Cribbs Causeway (3-1) £110 @ 9-2 BT & £90 @ 4-1 Tote 2nd 7-1
5.35 Newm Shenanigans (2-1) £250 @ 2-1 365
3.35 Catt Bow Belles (15-8) £200 @ 7-2 365
4.10 Catt Mr Globetrotter (3-1) £200 @ 6-1 BV & Tote
5.55 Catt Bernie’s Boy (5-2) £165 @ 3-1 BT & 85 @ 11-4 365

Desert Encounter

7/2 --- 13/2

Winning jockey: Sean Levey
Winning trainer: David Simcock

Christ almighty. If I had any bookmaker account still open, never mind one permitting those kinds of stakes, I'd just be thanking the Lord and counting my blessings. Not worrying about some post-bookmaker future on here. Just make hay while the sun's shining, and let the future take care of itself.

For one thing, BOG is such an amazing concession from the bookmakers that there's no way of artificially replicating it with the Betfair SP. You can't somehow manipulate your bets to reproduce the massive advantage which BOG grants the punter.

The 2nd last time Cribbs Causeway won, it drifted from 4/1 early to almost 13/1 BSP.

*4th last time.

screaming, agree with what you say, even though I cannot win on here, if it wasn't for the exchange I would never had been able to win with the bookies the last couple of years through early prices & BOG. Avenues are running out mind, 365 have always laid me a decent bet and normally BV - but they have taken my BOG away. Others have restricted or closed me down, that's why I've been experimenting with BSP, but after a near 90 pt loss I'm getting near to calling it a day on here, continue betting with the bookies until I'm shut down then call it a day and go do something else. I don't want to be glued to the exchange all day trying to find an edge up against all the sharks, who either know more or are better judges than me.

Sounds like a plan.

4.10 Catt Mr Globetrotter (3-1) £200 @ 6-1 BV & Tote. SP 11-1 (I think) BSP 13.40 dropped out last to begin with and always in the same place. Amazing how many horses that i back, including those that are fancied or shorten end up coming last.

That race was fixed imho, McCoy. Am sure I will get blasted for saying so but I don't care.

Yep, pre ordained in the weighing room. All the jockeys bar the winner, should be asked to explain their rides.

Just seen your other thread after I posted above. What chance have you got? £280 done before they've even come out of the stalls.

I have seen too many of these races over the years and if you try to oppose horses that appear under priced you are guaranteed to be on the wrong end of a few of them over time.

Have emailed the BHA with my views on that race. Odds against to even get a reply, but I have asked whether the stewards asked any questions as to why the rest of the jockeys gave the winner so much rope.

Nothing on the stewards reports.

And there you have it. They have watched that "race" and not seen fit to ask questions. Rank.

Here we go again. Queen Of Kalahari drifts out to 4.9 BSP & beaten into 2nd by a 26.0 BSP shot. I know it's heavy ground & ripe for upsets but how is it I am constantly wrong and the layers are constantly right when a horse drifts? It's so frustrating. One more for me today, Lester Kris, nicked some 10-3 earlier. That see what the exchange makes of this one.

keep nicking those prices and you'll soon be relying on family and friends for accounts ...

Not sure about that, Queen Of K, 9-4 early, I took 3-1, finishes 7-2, 4.9 BSP, hardly nicked anything there, but I see what you mean. Lester Kris, 10-3 with Black T, I don't arb or ever back ew, & they say that's the only reason they would close an account?

No BOG, so any drifters I back with them are going to hit me. Sorry, should be, if I ever back a drifter that wins......

Queen of Kalahari opened 9/2,backed into 7/2.Not a drifter in my book.

soi de leau badly drifting fav

last 5 years -

drifters that drifted b'cos someone knew it wasn't winning  0-346 (0%)

make it 0-347.  Beachcomber Bay 5/4 -> any price you want (i know it's not winning).

Soie D'leau opened 7/4,out to 9/4,returned 2/1.Hardly drifting badly !

Soie D'leau was 5/4 this morning, 4 non-runners taking out 40% of the market and horse still returned 2/1

Queen of Kalahari opened 9/2,backed into 7/2.Not a drifter in my book.

Not sure, think 9-2 was before the non runners, 9-4 reformed market, finished 7-2.

I only pay attention to the 10 mins pre off. I backed it at 4/1 before it shortened to 7/2.

Golden Birthday, 6/5 out to 7/4 wins

Yeah, & the frickin layers take my bet: £333.72 to £100 on Lester Kris. Can't complain with how mine ran, but like I say, how are the layers on here constantly right with my selections and I'm wrong?

16:40 Roscommom

William Du Berlais  1.75 to 3 ish

Beaten easily...

gers girl was a huge drifter on here and won

Lester Kris was well backed

re Lester Kris... keep backing at those odds before they shorten,you'll win in the long run.

not with the bookies you won't ... account red flagged after 2, restricted after 5, you're welcome to continue using the casino after 10.

Sorry, but I want to show a profit on the drifters or at least show to me that a horse that drifts from 3-1 to 5-1 has the same chance of winning as one that shortens from 10-1 to 5-1. If the BSP is a true reflection of a horses chance shouldn't that happen, regardless of whether it shortens or drifts. If it goes off as a 5-1 chance that's its chance but if it's a drifter I don't think it is - I think in this case it favours the layers - but no one seems to able to produce stats to see whether this is true or not? My betting suggests drifters cost you a lot of money and favour the layers.

very true hulk

McCoy... try laying the drifters then. See how that goes.

I'm thinking of doing that, but after a nearly 90 point loss backing and 11 winners out of the last 80 bets backing to BSP (14% strike rate, compared to a normal 19% strike rate) I'm not sure this is the time to be doing that. Sods law will dictate that as soon as I start laying they will start winning.

Lay to small stakes, just to find out !

Trouble is I've done £8500 on here this year, I'll probably go to £10k backing, see if I can turn things around, then that will be my lot. I have a separate betting bank for betting with the bookies. I could do as you say, lay to small stakes, but don't see the point of that.

The point is you would find out if laying drifters is profitable or not.

Trouble is I've done £8500 on here this year

roughly, how many bets this year McCoy ?

From earlier in the thread Pablo:

Total in: 112387  out: 120560 (-8173) approx -7% ROI 154/793 approx 19% strike rate

So, 793 bets @ BSP.

I'm on Blessed To Impress, next @ Lingfield. Took 8's earlier, out to 12's now 9-2. Tracksuit Dave involved?

What an absolute **** ride by SDS. Never had a chance.

thanks McCoy .

i was going to suggest to see what the P+L is at BFSP for all horses but i guess that would be a bit much work for you

GL

I did look & if I remember I break even at best

marchingon together 5/4 to 5/2 tenderly handled .................................

Backing at BSP (6 months) at diff price limits...

PriceLimit	all	only drifters	drifters +1	dfs +2	dfs +3	dfs +10
A	-233	-523	2903	244	-92	-30
B	2986	1453	2629	208	706	-346
C	6985	7074	6940	3816	3031	-1604
D	4412	5805	5914	1934	2055	1192
avg	3537	3452	4596	1551	1425	-197

Thanks Grok. Think this is the sort of thing I'm looking for but what is it actually showing? Thanks.

Not sure how much you guys would agree, but I think at least some of the big drifters can be down to specific 'trading' behaviour?

e.g. big trader x wants to push out his earlier lay, and him and his mates force it out, causing a snowball effect - nothing to do with the race/selection?

TRADING...back em high lay em low..goes on all the time   Stock Exchange
so whats a drifter on here

Stock Exchange   world wide zillions change hands every day...  on here its thousands

One years results... 
+3 eg avg price 5, BFSP = 8
+10 eg avg price 15, BFSp = 25.

Only drifters means no shorter BFSP than ave price... I'll leave the conclusions to you.

PriceLimit	all @10 stk	only drifters	drifters +1	dfs +2	dfs +3	dfs +10
A 10	340	2451	4737	190	213	-30
B 20	6575	7540	9500	3711	3187	105
C 30	12070	14025	14611	9458	7993	-723
D 50	3765	10009	9996	4395	4335	-2227
avg	5688	8506	9711	4438	3932	-719

Thanks for clearing that up Grok.  It all makes sense now.

regards
Ronnie

Should add, my example fits exactly with those selections that seems to drift like crazy on here, while the bookies price changes only a small amount...least that's one explanation.

The other thing obviously is they can push a horse out more on here because it is only a win market and layers have no place liabilities. So from the table can we infer that the BSP has to be within around +1 of the ave price (whatever that is) esp up to 10 (9-1) for the best return? Anymore, and it's not looking good? Interesting.

Well if I have read the table right, it says that Grok makes more money on drifters than non drifters, but the bigger the extent of the drift the smaller the profit and horses that drift very markedly return a loss.

stu 27 Sep 17 11:47
 
Not sure how much you guys would agree, but I think at least some of the big drifters can be down to specific 'trading' behaviour?

e.g. big trader x wants to push out his earlier lay, and him and his mates force it out, causing a snowball effect - nothing to do with the race/selection?
-------------

" wants to push out his earlier lay,"

For what purpose? .... Presumably as a, "big trader," to then 'Green Up'

But - To do that - the, "big trader," will then have to LAY at FAR GREATER odds than his original LAY - and chance some genuine BACKERS of the horse (on Form/Selection) thinking these odds are far too big - and swiping the, "big trader's," potential 'Green UP' - thus leaving the, "big trader,"  with an exposed OPEN LAY position.... Which is the LAST THING that a, "big trader," wants.

And today's drifter is: Presented 5.05 Perth. Took the 9-2 earlier now showing 13-2, 8.2 on the exchange. I haven't backed it @ BSP mind, I've had enough of that - at least for now

Oh well, @ least the layers on here didn't get my money this time. Not really happening for me this month - too many seconds.

instead of backing drifters,try backing the shorteners

Can't see there's any mileage in that, but sometime I intend looking back through my records and exploring all angles. I never had a bet , but pretty sure The Big Short was a "Big" drifter in the last @ Goodwood & blew it at the start. The BHA need to start looking into instances where the hood is removed "late" when the stalls open. For me, they should be able to use a hood to get a horse in, but as soon as the horse is in, the jockey has to take the hood off. How do we know, when a hood is removed late that it is not deliberate?

To answer your post onlooker - I'd say there are some traders who have enough 'weight' to force the markets around quite a bit, especially as the markets are not as heavy often these days. Worst risk is someone even bigger comes in and takes their offers, but if they are big traders they will either be using even bigger stakes than the backers (hence take the bets and continue to move the market) or they will be able to exit without too much damage with their market wiles....

It's not a certain strategy of course, but in these days when it is easier to move most markets they will do it, I'm pretty sure.

barmy lay above 2.1 your doomed

The Big Short was a massive drifter. It stank like a bin lorry, and ran like one.

I was at the cricket in Taunton today, and popped into Betfred at lunch. There it was in big letters on the screen, FRED'S PUSH 5/2 THE BIG SHORT 5.25 Goodwood. Price on here at the time 3.4/3.45.

SP 7/2, Betfair SP 5.5.

Went right and very awkward leaving stalls, detached in rear, closed and in touch halfway, ridden and edged right over 1f out, soon weakened (tchd 9/2)

Trained by C Hills (son of Barry, who was quoted earlier on this thread telling us we ought to have more on drifters).

screaming is right, BOG is a huge concession. Clearly unavailable online to most but if you keep stakes at "under the radar level" I can get on in shops. Got to the point where I hardly have a bet off course without it because this place renders the market so accurate. I go racing where at least there is an edge seeing the horses pre race and possible to eliminate some and whatever their percentage is.

think Ambitious Icarus has huge chance in the last at Newcastle but already out from 5/2 to 4s

Have noticed when a horse is tipped up andy h hugh taylor etc quite often withdrawn stable not getting their desired odds i presume

Another one well beaten, although I would call it a semi drifter Porchy Party, took the 5-2 early, 4.3 BSP, - but I never fell for it, & didn't top up as I'm skint

150 ling

motabassom

4/1 ---7/1

crowley

150 ling

motabassom

4/1 ---7/1

crowley

matabassim

Miss Spent, 7-2 to 9-2 pu, last, Resolution Bay 2-1 to 3-1jf (touched 10-3)unp, Easy Code 7-4 to 11-4 (touched 3-1)unp. And also to show that it's not only drifters that lose for me, Shrubland 5-2 into 6/5f 2nd Whatever I try and do I just cannot get away from these horrendous losing runs. Backed Stick To The Plan Tuesday where she fell off on the run in - 2nd time something like that has happened to me this year. The other was on the flat @ Chepstow or Ffos Las - can't remember the name of it? Think an apprentice was up - or off so to speak. My one saving grace is i don't chase - but it took me best part of 30 odd years to get over that. One bet left today Falcon Eye 6.45 Chelmsford @ 11-2. Sorry to have a moan, find it helps me a bit spouting off on here. Good luck all.

One that I didn't back, that met my selection criteria, Cobra De Mai @ Sedgefield on Tuesday, morning price 5-1, won 9-1, (both 13-8 fav & 15-8 2nd fav fell) so they do occasionally go in, but in my experience not enough to make up for the losers.

The joke thread over on Chit Chat is good therapy as well

Miss Uppity drifted all day now out to 10s.

I actually think it may lead all the way not much pace in the race.

What happened? Another one stuffed. I'm beginning to think it's all orchestrated and someone is making a fortune out of these drifters. No one seems to offer any proof otherwise.

2.10 Fontwell Risk n Roll  11/4 out to 5/1 Lost

^ That was put in, early,  at a false price, though

Read TheAnorack's thread.

It was trading at 3.75 10 mins before post time. Went off at 6.06

No bet here and concur that the betting forecast was a right load of bollocks, but it was still a marked unilateral drift and ran as if either grossly unfit or having something wrong with him.

3.0 Hex Soiesauvage 9/4 out to 3/1

3.35 Hex Beau Bay 13/8 out to 9/4

On the flip side...

3.1 into 2.66 WON
4.8 into 3.9  WON
4.2 into 3.5  WON

On the flip side...

3.1 - 2.66 won
4.8 - 3.9 won
4.2 - 3.5 won

There was a 2.94 - 2.44 that lost

Bitview Colin drifted from 9.00 - 32.00 and won the 4:10 at Hexham.

There was a bit of late money for it, so the price came in to about 18.00 at the off.

It seems some people weren't convinced connections were taking the horse all the way from Ireland to Hexham because they fancied him to run a big race there.

I wouldnt be laying an 18.0 shot

3.05 into 2.52 Won.

6.5 pts profit backing the shorteners.
3 pts profit laying the drifters.

Thats backing the shorteners at bottom price