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Racing Post - Betting Forecast
3/1 The Big Short, 4/1 Bella Alissa, Zipedeedodah, 13/2 Everkyllachy, 7/1 Sandfrankskipsgo,
Course Betting - 10/1 > 12/1 > 14/1 > 16/1
Betfair SP 20.2
3/1 The Big Short, 4/1 Bella Alissa, Zipedeedodah, 13/2 Everkyllachy, 7/1 Sandfrankskipsgo,
Course Betting - 10/1 > 12/1 > 14/1 > 16/1
Betfair SP 20.2
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They don't end of. I can prove it.
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What about the above example - McCoy?
I started the thread as a bit of fun - referencing the oft quoted adage  Nevertheless - it still DID, in fact, WIN. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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last 5 years -
drifters that drifted b'cos someone knew it wasn't winning 0-346 (0%) drifters that drifted b'cos some form boffin thought it might not win 456-917 (49.7%) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I'm a fan of the Barry Hills system. The bigger the price the more you have on. Trouble is, I've lost the wife, house and car. That Barry Hills is one lucky sod.
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Back in the 90's I amassed a lot of stats about the P/L of backing drifters and it did pay but only a within particular band of odds.
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I put my bets on with he bookies in the morning, then I put a bet on here @ the same price or better BSP. So @ the moment if I have £200 @ 3-1 with bookies I'll stick £100 on here BSP with a limit of 4.2 (effectively 3-1 after commission) so the horse has to be the same price as my initial stake or drift. I am £8k down this year following this system, roughly what I'm up with the bookies. So, for me, drifters do not win, it's the early price horses that shorten, that are the winners for me. But can't I lay the horses that drift and make a profit I ask myself, or would any winnings get swallowed up with commission or would be be sods law that I've just had an extremely bad run and the drifters would start winning? This is the frustrating part, i do not not know what to do, carry on with the system, lay my selections when they drift, or just give up with the exchange entirely
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The problem with your system is that the only ones you're backing on here are the ones which drift. All the ones where you've got the market right, and they've shortened up - you've not had a penny on them on here.
For what it's worth, I would say the best thing to do would be to determine how much you want overall on your selection, over all platforms, and get that sum on, taking the best price you can, whether with bookies and/or on here. And that's it. Forget BSP for what you're doing (looking for value bets). There's no way of using it without ending up with the distorted staking system I described in the first paragraph. I hope this doesn't come over as condescending, because I've been there. I've got frustrated with seeing horses I've backed at 10.0 drift (and, occasionally, win) at 20.0. But I never found a way of manipulating my staking in a way which took advantage without, at the same time, having too little on the winners which shorten and too much on the losers which drift. Barry Hills' statement is from another era, pre-Betfair. In those days I had some monumental touches going in again and again on drifters. But that was against bookmakers alone, who quite frankly knew no more than I did. That's not the case on here. In case you think I'm making it up, how it was worth backing drifters again and again in "the good old days", here's one from a Newton Abbot selling hurdle in 1992. Angels Kiss was the forecast favourite, yet went off at 6/1. It made every yard, and p1ssed up by 10 lengths. My first bet was £250 to £100. My last was £500 to £70. In all I ended up having £470 on it to win £2300. https://www.racingpost.com/results/39/newton-abbot/1992-11-17/48794 Let's be clear: this was a Pipe horse in a seller, ridden by a 7lb claimer, that went from 5/2 to 7s ... and hacked up. There's no way on earth I would follow a the favourite in a seller from 3.5 out to 8.0 now | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Screaming, in your opinion why did that horse drift? There had to be reasons for it. I can recall backing a horse in the 60s at 3/1 which drifted to 10s but it rarely happened in my experience.
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Thanks screaming. You didn't come across as condescending. I started experimenting with the BSP and betting on here at the start of the year in case the day came when I was successful enough to have all my bookmaking accounts closed. At least on here you're not looking over your shoulder waiting for restrictions or closures to happen but you're right betting purely BSP as I have been doesn't seem the way to go.
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Sparrow: In hindsight, Angels Kiss probably had a physical problem. It never ran again, for one thing. So it may have been the case that the yard knew that. It was one of the very rare Martin Pipe horses running in the West Country which his dad, Dave, priced up at the market price on his board - he was otherwise almost invariably below the market price for his son's runners. It was a really big, impressive chasing type, yet only ever ran over hurdles.
But more likely was the fact that it was real, old-fashioned Newton Abbot heavy ground that day, and Angels Kiss had hitherto been kept to fast ground ... except for one day a couple of months earlier, when it fallen in the lead at the last over C&D on soft. Because it had then run three times since (all on firm) that run had disappeared from the form lines in the Life and the Post. You actually had to be paying for the weekly Form Book supplements to find that earlier run (and you had to be the kind of obsessive who leafed back through the Form Book far enough to find it - this was a seller, remember - not a race for those punters who think sticking to high-class races makes them look like serious investors). One thing's for sure - no bookmaker did that. A glance through the Life in the car park and a 130% book was enough to start chalking up and betting in thousands for most of them. That's why it's different now. Two clicks of a mouse would highlight that soft-ground form these days. In fact, you wouldn't even need that. Spotlight would highlight it anyway. So if Angels Kiss were to drift like that now, I'd be inclined to think it was down to it being a cripple, and I'd be very wary of following the price out. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Thanks for that screaming. I must admit that back form information is far easier to access these days and cheaper too. Generally though the bookmakers were never far wrong when it came to drifters.
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Welsh Bard stuffed, morning fav, drifts, finishes 4 of 4. What was the point of McCain sending it all the way down to NA for Kennedy to go a crawl on it from the front? How does the market constantly seem to get it right?
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In my experience, the market moves don`t tell you a lot. Everyone notices the gambles that win but tend to forget the ones that don`t. Late moves can be significant but not always.
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How does the market constantly seem to get it right?
fairly straight-forward to construct a winning system from this maxim | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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That's what I've been pondering, simply lay my selections when they drift instead of backing them.
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Let's see what happens with Lamya here
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Another one stuffed
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McCoy - Would I be correct in saying that - in your example - The 4.2 BSP that you set is a MINIMUM price - although you call it a, "Limit" ?
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Yes onlooker. It's been disastrous.
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i actually think these huge drifters represent value, its just sticking with them after a couple run unsighted, takes some discipline mind.
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A Drifter for you.
5.30 Dun: Lapilli. 4/1 Place on here,nice form in the book. But someone wants a Lay.  | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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How about Nina! Big drifter but rode Codd to sleep. Saved lengths on the bend and just got back when headed.
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i backed one tues at newcastle was 2.56 on here backed it at 6/4 in the high st, was trading at 6.2 hour before it ran, went off 11/4 pissed in you do get the lemmings effect on here, sometimes..
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spotted anymore huge drifters tonight bluey i can have a look at.
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Here's my results this year backing with the bookies up until y'day:
Jan in: 23264 out: 17885 +5379 44/168 Feb in: 16307 out: 17668 -1361 36/159 Mar in: 41471 out: 35814 +5657 60/243 Apr in: 31276 out: 37529 -5983 34/191 May in: 51890 out: 49445 +2445 52/237 Jun in: 22839 out: 20394 +2445 25/131 Jul in: 46964 out: 47645 -681 45/220 Aug in: 35750 out: 36098 -348 41/190 Sep in: 15459 out: 15955 -496 19/85 Total in: 285220 out: 278433 +6787 approx +2.5% ROI 356/1624 approx 22% strike rate And now on here, backing the horse to BSP IF it's equivalent or greater than the price obtained with bookies, again until yesterday: Jan in: 5256 out: 4091 (+1165) 19/79 Feb in: 5409 out: 5053 (+356)18/71 Mar in: 19430 out: 18384 (+1046) 26/130 Apr in: 16671 out: 18493 (-1822) 18/101 May in: 19319 out: 20819(-1500) 17/101 Jun in: 15927 out: 17584 (-1657) 13/89 Jul in: 20193 out: 20272 (-79) 20/94 Aug in: 7686 out: 11566 (-3880)15/75 Sep in: 2496 out: 4298 (-1802) 8/53 Total in: 112387 out: 120560 (-8173) approx -7% ROI 154/793 approx 19% strike rate So the drifters to BSP are a huge negative for me, but the question I asked earlier is: a) It's just a blip, stick with it, if it was value when you placed the bet, and it's now an even bigger price, it must be even bigger value which will be accentuated by the BSP b) Do the opposite, lay the drifters, the market knows something you don't or something has come to light since you placed the bet (maybe a ground change)and it's not value - you'll profit on here from this approach c)Forget about the BSP, it's a pretty perfect market, whether you back or lay, any profit will get swallowed up by commission Any thoughts anyone? I feel I've been fed to the sharks, any money I've made with the bookies has just been given back on here | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Yo-Yo better than sink-sink McCoy Carp gl with swimming with sharks ...
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Personally if i back one that drifts like a barge early and then there's late money for it i take as a big positive, the lemming effect. Stick with it mate.
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Given the "drifters" strike rate of 19 percent is not actually much lower than the overall strike rate of 22 percent, I am guessing that very few of the really marked drifters that would have returned very favourably at SP won?
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Its been a strange year or so for results.
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Yes, that seem to be the case Barton
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Champarisi another drifter despite being clear top rated on form. Could it be that Grant Tuer is seen as the no hoper rather than the horse while the names Johnson and Botti seem attractive. People backing the trainers rather than the horses?
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Statistical nonsense. How can you rate all trainers as equal in this exercise?
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McCoy, suspected as much. Given you are able to show a profit with the bookmakers I suspect you aren't backing that many horses that are bad value on knowledge in the public domain and some of them are being laid by folk who know they are not fit/wanted/have had a problem/running in a race where the designated trier is gettng a headstart etc.
Sageform, I don't know those horses well enough to know if your asserton that the winner had the clear best form (timeform for example had little between the top 3 on the figs) is correct but you are probably correct regarding punters following the better yards in that example. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Fair enough Barton, so is there an angle to be had laying these drifters instead of backing them? Got to say, so confused and at my wits end with it on here. Don't feel like throwing much more money at it, on a 85pt losing streak as it is. Blowing a 90-100pt bank is enough I think.
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You will tie yourself in knots with stats, only imvho.
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Well, I don't use the same methods in that I don't/can't bet with bookmakers. If I fancy one that drifts to a far bigger price than I think it should be I still back it but reduce my stake. They generally lose but I couldn't hack laying a horse that I think should be 3-1 at 8-1 and watch it win and take the hit.
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