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Segal's Comments On Flat Racing In Today's Post
Segal's Comments On Flat Racing In Today's Post
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duncan idaho 17 Jul 17 15:12
thegigolo been making hay on Turf too this summer (zhui feng, heartache, harry angel etc), to return further balance Good to see you reading in dunc  as for onlooker i've been putting in 12-15 hour days minimum for 20 years on the turf as most on here know,i do 90% of the form and have always done so throughout every summer with virtually no holidays.As i said before WALOFS |
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What does doing 90% of the form mean? 12-15 hours sounds like torture to me but maybe that's where I have been going wrong. If I can't find something in a couple of hours I will just give up.
I suppose the proof is in the pudding. We know where we can find Segal's tips, where can we find yours? Perhaps a head to head with Segal would be interesting? |
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Been betting horses for 50 years and the last year or two have been the hardest I can recall. Plenty of smart alecs will claim they are doing well because their system/pattern has come to fruition but for most form is not as reliable as it used to be.
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Ask someone to pm you the site i post on i'm sure someone will oblige..
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there is a winner in every race, and the places per race have remained the same, the goalposts have moved but Seagull has been stuck in the mud.
how a prominent tipster, maybe in the highest tipster position in the UK can go 80+ tips without a win and still be in a job is simply staggering. if I was Gordon Ramsay's head chef and I ruined the main courses in 80 consecutive nights service, would I still be in a job ? I don't think so. Seagull wants to try betting on here, the shark (sorry bot) infested waters it has now become, with dwindling liquidity and no end of system issues to deal with day in day out. The mere fact he is putting prices up for selections, that you still cannot get a decent bet on, if at all, speaks volumes about the current state of the industry. |
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when i first started betting on horseracing more then 35 years ago there were very few televised races but the median standard of jockeyship on the flat (NH jocks have in fact improved over the same period) did appear to be better than it is today and certainly the halycon days of cauthen riding winner after winner from the front have been forgotten by the current crop of jocks (and trainers) with bigger emphasis on horses coming from behind - sure willoughby could write a weighty tome on the relationship between 'new' methods of handicapping and this trend i.e. how to hide your lights under a bushel...
now you can see every race in UK/Ireland live, it's obvious there are many more poor/incompetent and in some cases suspect rides than there were even 10 years ago, again perhaps down to the handicapping approach but more likely confirmation that the median standard of jocks has deteriorated (which in itself should not be a suprise as the number of humans who weigh between 7 and 10 stone gets less by the year and therefore the number of potential jocks falls accordingly) and that the amount of cheating has increased as more and more connections are desperate to lay one out for one payday every few years to go some way to fund their 'hobby' which has seen training fees increase to around £1600-£2000 per month whereas prize money for 90% of races, has fallen year on year apart from the mad concentration at the high end festival meetings (which only benefits the big owners who rarely have a horse in worse than a CL3 race before it gets sold on).. it does seem that we are reaching the perfect storm and with £M being thrown at football in particular the numbers betting seriously on horseracing will continue to fall and at some time not too far away unfortunately, we'll have cheltenham, royal ascot and a few big saturdays interspersed between a plethora of ladies days/ gentlemens nights / wet wet wet concerts and endless AW /C5/C6 fare...so in summary, it's likely to get worse than better, |
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Maybe his predicament had been compounded with the defunct of Channel 4 Racing. However, how he had not envisaged this scenario is mind boggling; betting/punting in horse racing had been getting progressively challenging for the last 10 years for joe public, to say the least, and for someone who had been/was supposed to be the top tipster in his game only writing/speaking about it now is disingenuous and unprofessional.
Maybe he needs to man-up...stop bleating and/or leave his profession entirely. |
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Seagull is now a fully fledged member of the Racing Gravy Train, time to hang up his pin, give the job to a fresh face with fresh ideas....
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Plenty of changes the last few years on the flat mostly low grade racing everyday that would have been classed as sellers years ago just low grade handicappers taking turns to win The distances of the races daily are changed moving rails adding many yards to races see the notices everyday so they don't run at the correct distance every race every day in the older days they didn't moves the rails The consistency of trainers has fallen dramatically its seems the newish trainers do well then learn like the old school to start playing around Look at the stoute horses lately all over the place from one run to the next very clever and the mark Johnson horses that's changed beyond recognition The tracks watering with clerks levelling the draw up happens at Beverley every meeting and Royal ascot it went from one side to the next in one day nothing to do with the pace Lots of things causing the punter problems beyond his control and not in the public domain imo
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^^ The BHA gets a share of the bookmakers' profits, not turnover, so all of the things above are in the financial interest of racing...
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The apparent "up-and-coming" trainers made novicey mistakes eg:-
1) Palmer - over-running their best horse eg Galileo Gold, last season 2) Appleby - easily influenced by the opinion of a jockey despite repeatedly saying horse would be better going up in distance eg Wuheida winner of the Marcel Boussac and much fancied for the 2017 Oaks; horse ran in the Falmouth as a prelude to the Nassau but now is having 2nd thoughts despite the horse could not even manage to beat Roly Poly (AOB's 3rd string) there. I agree there are too many average/mediocre jockeys riding regularly in too many nondescript races for the benefit of bookies and connections but not to racegoers and/or punters. |
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http://www.bettingtools.co.uk/tipster-table/tipsters/pricewise/23
last 5 years Profit for 2013: 542.50 Profit for 2014: 402.00 Profit for 2015: -1296.50 Profit for 2016: 793.30 Profit for 2017: -281.20 160 points up, less than 1% of turnover considering the theoretical access he has got the EPs across the board, that is frankly pathetic |
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whatever methods/systems he was using years ago to turn a profit have clearly been eroded
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sounds like you should all pack it in, lads....the current crop of jocks, trainers, clerks just simply not up to the standard that punters of your calibre deserve
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Seagull don't use betting exchanges, clearly a dinosaur that needs another ice age to come along and wipe it out
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isleham 16 Jul 17 23:37
After a 80+ losing run it really isn't MY fault..pathetic!! Quite !! |
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treetop 18 Jul 17 00:06
Been betting horses for 50 years and the last year or two have been the hardest I can recall. Plenty of smart alecs will claim they are doing well because their system/pattern has come to fruition but for most form is not as reliable as it used to be. Yes it is. You need to be selective. |
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can't imagine his followers are too happy, most ball deep in an 80+ losing run and the leader comes out and says it's all got a bit too difficult ...
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regarding jockeys and yes i agree with most people that they generally don't seem as switched on as they used to.
I'm wondering if perhaps there's some mileage in the fact that they aren't getting the support and advice required. Has the role of the agent changed? don't the play golf and wait for the phone to ring these days? Sure they used to have a small book of jockeys , spent all day in the form book and advised accordingly. This time of year , with so much racing, its just so hectic and impossible for them , trainers too , to keep up to the minute with everything thats going on. i'm convinced a good proportion of us ,24-7 , avid race watchers are much more aware of things like a track bias or tactics then any jockey or trainer . They just don't have the time and i believe many spend the summer running around like head less chickens on auto pilot. All top jockeys should employ a brain man. seeing SDS stand out day in day out , i'm convinced he must be working closely with a sharp mind? |
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Many on here finding excuses for backing the wrong horse and Tom Segal is no exception but he gets paid for his selections.
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never followed a tipster but might start with this guy, purely on the basis that he must be due a winner.
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My comments relate to the bigger picture, FELTFAIR. I no longer regularly bet on horse racing to make a profit. Racing remains my first love, but it's now a recreational pursuit in the main. I found something else to bet on that I have a much larger edge in, and that takes most of my focus and concentration, so I'm unbiased by and large.
I maintain the vast majority of changes make things more difficult for the dedicated horse racing punter. That doesn't mean that it 'can't be done' but just that it's more difficult. Cumulative penalties, selective watering, capped field sizes, compressed weights, split races, 48 hr decs, rail movements, sun issues, foreign guess up handicappers etc etc. I'm not sure I agree with some others that the standard of jockeys is an issue. There's always been bad/unlucky rides, and always will be. It's more systematic changes that tend to add to the lottery of it all. |
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hulk23 18 Jul 17 18:29 never followed a tipster but might start with this guy, purely on the basis that he must be due a winner. FOBT mentality |
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Moan whinge moan moan whinge whinge, ive seen every excuse on here why we cant back winners or make a profit, either stop betting or take a loss like a man, place the bet so accept the result win or lose, jeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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Spot on mansy
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Agreed
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I have been full time on here since 2007, have to admit, probably the toughest it has ever been to try to make a profit
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BB
Do you know why ? Do you keep records. Do you only bet in certain races, or ' across the board' Do you bet in level stakes ? Where are your biggest wins / losses coming from? Is their a pattern to the losing bets ? |
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Agreed - "accept the result win or lose' IS a ridiculous statement to make"
Might as well just bet on the virtual racing with that philosophy. |
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Facts - good advice, but one thing I'd pick up on- I do all the above with the possible exception of restricting to certain races. I used to be rigidly disciplined in doing that, but there was a very clear indication that my edge was disappearing and I took time out to do some thinking. I now scan the whole card, but can quickly dismiss races where there is not a shape I like. Shortlisting the races I'm interested in allows the focus on those to the exclusion of the rest. This adds about an hour a day, (as I don't just navigate to certain races blindly) but my thinking is that a bet can come from anywhere if you have a clear idea of what you're looking for.
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Onlooker - I think that phrase is meant to be read as "man up" - accepting doesn't have to mean submitting to it.
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Are you saying that any race in which the market is not a good guide to the result is bent in some way? Of course most people bet on shorter priced horses but a significant number don't and they back winners. If the form book was a more reliable guide what price would the favourites be? We all have our methods and objectives when betting and that is what makes a market. My priorities list on the flat would be something like:
1. Owner. 2. Pedigree. 3. Trainer 4. Going and draw. 5. Jockey. 6. Form. I tend to avoid races in which the runners have all run 6 or more times. |
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horse racing is no different to a lot of sports, some parts of it you want to be towards the front of the market (for various reasons), other parts of it you want to be looking at the rag end (again for various reasons)
getting to know what to look for and where is part of being a successful punter because it is certainly not a 1 size fits all sport |
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Trainers and jockeys cant be trusted, its always been that way, but far worse now than ever before. One huge improvement the sport could easily make is to couple a trainer/owner horses for betting purposes when they have 2 or more in the same race. This simple rule would stop punters leaving the sport in disgust while Coolmore, Godolphin, Hamdan Al Maktoum and Co (the list is almost endless) continue their filthy games winning with no hopers while their red hot favourites cant pick their feet up. I tend to think most jockeys are capable of winning on the best horses when they are told too, but so many are simply riding to orders like "not today Josephine". I have been gambling for over fifty years, and horse racing has never been as corrupt as it is today. I have seen it all, done it all, and quite frankly Im staggered at the total and utter lack of integrity in horse racing today, its deplorable, and Segal is actually 100% right in what he has written
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I used to make money for years betting on the horses...
Big money if truth be told but you have to be able to back a horse each-way at the top price.. Betfair is useless as the place prices are ****.. Packed the game in as sick of the alleged "bookmakers" closing me down. Sick of multiple identitys and trying to cashout.. DO NOT OPEN AN ACCOUNT WITH MARATHONBET.. |
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Coupling horses for betting purposes is a truly terrible idea. If you want to back the second/third strings at a big price then you can and that's the way it should be.
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strange attitude to place prices. They are often not much less than 30% of win prices in competitive races and I find that place betting in maidens when there are only four or five horses with a realistic chance is quite profitable. With any other betting medium you only get 1/10 of the odds unless the horse wins. I know someone will tell me that the win and place bets are separate but you don't have another option of place only apart from Tote which are taking a 25% cut.
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Agree with Barton Bank. You are free to couple them yourself if you want to.
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Individual comments may apply about integrity and could vary according to type of strategy,some will be patient,some bet shorties,some bet each way or be selective. My opinion remains, I reckon the clerks and framing of races is causing upsets.Morecompetitive handicaps and selective watering to offset well known draw advantage or maintain bigger fields (better grants for this ) all contribute as much as corruption to my mind.It is harder and anyone who makes it pay just now has my admiration.
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