Segal's Comments On Flat Racing In Today's Post

can you post a link ddrum by any chance?

Overwatering of tracks and 48 hour decs are the problem.

So far as Seagull is concerned he spends too much time betting on golf and tennis or watching Reading and not enough time doing his job.
He chops and changes as his losers mount up. He goes from stating he's not going to obsess about the draw and just pick the best horse ...to obsessing about the draw.

Flat racing has become a joke to be fair, never heard so many people I know who like a bet say they only bet now on a Saturday or are off them altogether until the jump season starts proper. Too many bad jockeys getting plenty of rides because there's too much racing. Bad jockeys constantly riding against other bad jockeys means no improvement and so it goes on. So many of them who can see 5f out they're gonna be in trouble to get a gap just sit there and hope one develops instead of manufacturing one before it's too late. Never seen so many races where jockeys are getting themselves boxed in. So many gambling stables now on the flat as well means much more cheating than ever. Most tracks are now constantly churned up due to overracing and a lot have developed 'dunes' like Ripon. Flat racing has become not only difficult to bet on but also a poor spectacle to watch, no matter how much Ed Chamberlain overdoes it. Ps, let's also not forget the blanket gravy train punditry that has infested the game.

I agree he didn't pick the best of times to make the comments. Not sure the piece is online but he ends:-

'This may sound like a whinge but I believe Flat racing has a huge problem. It is clearly well behind the jumps in the affection of the public and if no-one has a clue how any race is going to be run , or even where they are going to run, then punters are going to leaving in droves, if the haven't already.'

I would disagree slightly. Those closest to the horse will have a pretty good idea what is going to happen, particularly if they have had a bet. I think the punters who will be leaving in droves will be those who have the potential to win but are fed up hitting a brick wall. That will just leave the mugs which is what bookmakers and the sport wants. No winners is great news.


I make a small four figure profit each year. Not really in a position where I want to take big risks so my betting is relatively cautious. The last couple of months my betting has just mirrored a snakes and ladders board with plentiful snakes and hardly a ladder. I have tried to concentrate on the Festivals and Saturdays in the hope that a greater percentage of horses might actually be bothered about winning but then you are faced with the jocks messing up every half-hour and the various course issues.

I would say it is virtually impossible for anyone to produce a sequence of reasonably priced winners without inside information.

Agree with MJK.

I watched the replay of Lochnager's July Cup win the other day and the grass looked like a bowling green. That was 1976! Contrast that to what Newmarket looked like last week. As a punter it used to be that you would look forward to periods of settled weather but the watering can has ended that. 

In those days you could name the name the big handicaps - Lincoln, Wokingham, Hunt Cup, Stewards Cup, Ebor, Cambridgeshire and Cesarawitch - in seconds. Now there are so many they can share them out because you only need to win one pot and it's job done. Even if you swerve handicaps you can't rely on condition race results with any confidence at all. Do we really want to be in a situation where the only way to win is backing horses like Enable? Fat wallets only?

It is very difficult to prove anything (particularly with the level of incompetence shown by so many jockeys) and I do wonder how much scrutiny there actually is, but I would suspect racing is about as corrupt now as it has ever been. Sadly, it is far easier to lose than to win.   

The cheerleading by the gravy train is just nauseating.

Just flat racing you say  - I'm amazed bookmakers have not gone unto the jockey club with their figures to let them know in no uncertain terms ,  this spot is fast disappearing up its own arse - in fact its probably gone so far up its own backside, would need a miner's helmet to find its own way out - greed & corruption have driven punters out , & now the trust has gone- after all - you don't have to have a bet on racing (stick to football) - they seem to have forgotten that - there's no liquidity in these pots to skank out of now - well has run dry. Bit like the National lottery ( their figures have imploded also) , there is a finite pot - not infinite , it has a beginning , middle & an end - which is nigh.

To return some balance to the posts.

    Jul 17, 2017 -- 12:12AM, thegiggilo wrote:


    WALOFS
------------

thegiiggilo is an ALL-WEATHER fanatic - who worships his local gaff Wolverhampton.

That scenario is far from being everybody's cup of tea - and is not comparing like with like in this discussion.

losing punters blaming the jockeys..an unedifying thread 

think your being a bit disingenuous about thegiggilo only being an aw fanatic, he smashed in 660/1 double at royal ascot, he only
put up 3 horses and the other won was unlucky to be beaten into 2nd, which he then selected at 10/1 for its next race and won
harrys angel. if this tom sagal was actually doing a decent job , he might of selected some of those above winners himself.

there are far more things these days for people to spend their leisure time on, you cant think that all the cheating or bad jockeys are putting off young people betting on the sport, wouldn't even cross their minds. theres just so much more on offer these days.

millhouse 17 Jul 17 15:30

I really don't want to beat the same drum all the time



he says after 14 yrs of banging away at said drum 

drew stumps on debating it on here about 6 yrs ago...serves absolutely no purpose

if you're referring to my 15.12 post, dd, it was purely in response to onlooker's post dissing gigolo

I've been following the sport for 50 years and betting on it for 40, and there hasn't been a moment during all those years when you wouldn't have heard all these complaints - the jockeys are sh1t, it's all bent except for the big races, the game's finished unless you're an insider etc. Believe me, there were a damn sight more rides like the one Starkey gave the Brave in the Derby than the one Swinburn gave Shahrastani in the same race. And there's nobody around today doing the sort of things Ken Payne, Albert Davison and Geoff Toft got up to around the gaffs.

The only new moan is the one about inconsistent and excessive watering, and I agree with that moan wholeheartedly. You could add elastic running rails to that list, but Ken Hussey was ranting about that in the Handicap Book 30 years ago. God knows what the poor man would have made of the latest wheeze to shaft the punters - remeasure the distances and move the starts, rendering decades of time data useless at a stroke.

Lack of pace in races has been a boon to bookies and a nightmare for form experts for many years. I do think we see more races run now where they crawl through the early furlongs making results a lot less predictable. On Saturday we had the July Cup and the John Smiths Cup both run at a crawl, so anything held up had no chance. Same in Northumberland Plate the previous week. We saw this a lot at R.Ascot including in the Gold Cup which led to OOSG's defeat.

This means the outcome of races has a lot more to do with successful, tactical rides, like the one Doyle gave Ballet Concerto. But trying to second guess how any of these races will pan out beforehand is next to impossible.

The best horse not winning has almost become the norm so from that pov I have sympathy for Segal.

Do you find that out-and-out front runners are profitable, McCoy Carp? It seems to me sometimes that these get artificially shortened by in-running punters backing them pre-race, in order to lay off for a few pennies' profit after a furlong?

But I'd agree with you about horses you know are going to get a decent position up with the pace, e.g. something ridden by de Sousa,

Millhouse is right, all the changes and tweaks to the system by tptb have been in an effort to make races less predictable. Plus you have the premier tracks (Ascot, York, Donny) that have added drainage systems which appear to make things even more random. Handicapping for group races can't be too far away!

It's the perceived bias more than anything. At a big meeting like RA, in the morning you just can tell what the jockeys will do, chasing shadows half the time.

so if that's basically what seagull is saying, why would anyone buy the rp to read his tips ? 

better off buying a daily and a packet of pins

screaming from beneaththewaves
17 Jul 17 16:45
Joined: 30 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 9,914 | Blogger: screaming from beneaththewaves's blog
Do you find that out-and-out front runners are profitable, McCoy Carp? It seems to me sometimes that these get artificially shortened by in-running punters backing them pre-race, in order to lay off for a few pennies' profit after a furlong?

Not sure. What you're saying would seem to make sense. There's so much going on on the exchange, backers, layers, arbers, scalpers, traders in running punters and yet from stats produced on here by stridingedge, a horse seems to find its true sp ie it's an accurate reflection of its chance.