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18 Apr 17
20:42
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Date Joined:
14 Sep 10
A couple of potentially interesting profile picks at Beverley tomorrow in the 3yo hcps, election day and the blues master.
Will probably be able to take or leave the blues master at it's current and likely sort of price sub 2/1 but election day would certainly be of interest at it's current price or bigger (6/1).
As this is an sp thread I'd really like to see how the land lies nearer the races.
Will probably be able to take or leave the blues master at it's current and likely sort of price sub 2/1 but election day would certainly be of interest at it's current price or bigger (6/1).
As this is an sp thread I'd really like to see how the land lies nearer the races.
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WD Striding. I backed SIA last time, but not today 
DeSousa winning on him is a bad omen for me - I need him to steer Danzeno to at least a place in the big one.
DeSousa winning on him is a bad omen for me - I need him to steer Danzeno to at least a place in the big one.
Joe missed out at GG today, perhaps a good shout up at Hammy in the lucky last?
Celestation stays a bit further than the trip for sure and is now top weight with the 2 class drop.Has won with a bit of cut (won on GS at Chester), has run perfectly well in two or three class 4's off a bit higher.
The interesting profile point is that at a track with a decent record generally, in August 3yo's in the 3yo+ hcps see a record of 9-22 (3.99 expected).
Putting all this together 11.5 looks too big to me at present.
Will look into the race a bit more.
Celestation stays a bit further than the trip for sure and is now top weight with the 2 class drop.Has won with a bit of cut (won on GS at Chester), has run perfectly well in two or three class 4's off a bit higher.
The interesting profile point is that at a track with a decent record generally, in August 3yo's in the 3yo+ hcps see a record of 9-22 (3.99 expected).
Putting all this together 11.5 looks too big to me at present.
Will look into the race a bit more.
lol hatters I've been typing this out and stuck on phone then when I post you've gone and snuck in and rubber stamped it 
or added a penalty depending which way you look at it 
or added a penalty depending which way you look at it
Great minds think alike
Or fools never differ
I won't aftertime SIA but ....
Or fools never differ
I won't aftertime SIA but ....
thin priced horses from this yard you will go skint
you know they aren't my type of price DB, ie love dreams but he does pretty well at the track with this type following up at skinny odds.
Just not getting the vibes for this celestation tonight.
There is other pace notably Amy Blair and though I doubt Joe would get hooked up on the speed I am just wary of this sort returning to form this season.
Also Hammy was as solid a track as there is for the yard with it's handicappers until recently where it may just be a blip but the figs have cooled off pretty noticeably.
2008-2015 47-231 (35 expected)
2016,2017 3-42 (7.08 expected)
I've done very poorly on horses I am hoping to shrug off a well btn lto run (in the lower classes especially) this season and on balance I'm not sure I have the confidence in following too many more of these.
There is other pace notably Amy Blair and though I doubt Joe would get hooked up on the speed I am just wary of this sort returning to form this season.
Also Hammy was as solid a track as there is for the yard with it's handicappers until recently where it may just be a blip but the figs have cooled off pretty noticeably.
2008-2015 47-231 (35 expected)
2016,2017 3-42 (7.08 expected)
I've done very poorly on horses I am hoping to shrug off a well btn lto run (in the lower classes especially) this season and on balance I'm not sure I have the confidence in following too many more of these.
* the win odds of those 3 in the last 3 seasons a paltry 1.7,2.38,4.86.
Perhaps just a blip but It's not giving me the confidence to pay to take the chance at present.
Perhaps just a blip but It's not giving me the confidence to pay to take the chance at present.
Gl Hatters with it, I'll probably end up with egg on the face as usual this campaign with the wrong marginal call.
Well done posters,very informative,very fruitful week all round.Keep up the good work stridingedge i enjoy reading your posts.Same again next year.
Jul 21, 2017 -- 2:00AM, FOYLESWAR wrote:
prestbury park 2.55 haydock turned out quickly after debut run at ascot , prominent in the betting ,faded quickly and well beat but with the expierience and a decent price today could come on a bundle as we saw with doublet yesterday ,will be having a go small
posted some other stuff about the race, its disappeared from the post for some reason, WD on a glorious goodwood
Well left Stride
Must be more picky here
Prestbury bumped the 2yo stats up again
Cple of big uns today at fancy prices
Must be more picky here
Prestbury bumped the 2yo stats up again
Cple of big uns today at fancy prices
2yo's marching on, wd Roadrunner with PP yesterday 
Alexander M eluded me runner up at a couple of decent prices this season, the step into 3yo+ division certainly worked the oracle yesterday after a poor run over the same CD lto
Alexander M eluded me runner up at a couple of decent prices this season, the step into 3yo+ division certainly worked the oracle yesterday after a poor run over the same CD lto
There is more evidence now in these novice races (since mdn classification change meaning a real big increase in them last 2 seasons) but I have hardly played the 2yo's and won't now be starting with runners like today's for the remainder of the season. I would say you would need pretty big balls to lay any of these on the evidence of 1 run though.
I would think the market will eventually get to these novices as the sample grows, probably when I join in next season with a few of the angles.
gl anyone playing these 2 today.
I would think the market will eventually get to these novices as the sample grows, probably when I join in next season with a few of the angles.
gl anyone playing these 2 today.
| [size=8pt]date | course | class | selection | BFSP | Stake | pos | rnrs | dist | race return | total returns | staked | ROI |
| 19/04/2017 | Beverley | 4 | Election Day | 6.28 | 10.00 | 2 | 6 | 6l | -£10.00 | -£10.00 | £10.00 | -100.00% |
| 24/04/2017 | Pontefract | 5 | Pennington | 10.48 | 10.00 | 8 | 8 | 30l | -£10.00 | -£20.00 | £20.00 | -100.00% |
| 01/05/2017 | Bath | 4 | Poets Society | 5.67 | 10.00 | 4 | 8 | 2.25l | -£10.00 | -£30.00 | £30.00 | -100.00% |
| 01/05/2017 | Beverley | 4 | Yorkee Mo Sabee | 28.40 | 5.00 | 9 | 10 | 14l | -£5.00 | -£35.00 | £35.00 | -100.00% |
| 05/05/2017 | Musselburgh | 4 | Thomas Cranmer | 8.28 | 5.00 | 1 | 9 | nk | £34.58 | -£0.42 | £40.00 | -1.05% |
| 06/05/2017 | Newmarket(R) | 2 | Abareeq | 15.80 | 10.00 | 4 | 9 | 3.25l | -£10.00 | -£10.42 | £50.00 | -20.84% |
| 06/05/2017 | Goodwood | 5 | Alexander M | 11.50 | 10.00 | 2 | 12 | 0.5l | -£10.00 | -£20.42 | £60.00 | -34.03% |
| 07/05/2017 | Newmarket(R) | 2 | Final | 13.50 | 10.00 | 5 | 12 | 4.25l | -£10.00 | -£30.42 | £70.00 | -43.46% |
| 07/05/2017 | Hamilton | 5 | Hamster Jam | 23.00 | 10.00 | 2 | 11 | 1.25l | -£10.00 | -£40.42 | £80.00 | -50.53% |
| 10/05/2017 | Chester | 2 | Emilia James | 7.47 | 10.00 | 4 | 10 | 2.75l | -£10.00 | -£50.42 | £90.00 | -56.02% |
| 19/05/2017 | York | 1 | Izzy Bizu | 14.38 | 10.00 | 11 | 13 | 11l | -£10.00 | -£60.42 | £100.00 | -60.42% |
| 19/05/2017 | York | 4 | Dominating | 20.11 | 10.00 | 8 | 11 | 17.5l | -£10.00 | -£70.42 | £110.00 | -64.02% |
| 19/05/2017 | Hamilton | 3 | Yorkidding | 5.80 | 10.00 | 3 | 8 | sh,nse | -£10.00 | -£80.42 | £120.00 | -67.02% |
| 21/05/2017 | Ripon | 5 | Musbaq | 12.34 | 10.00 | 5 | 7 | 17.5l | -£10.00 | -£90.42 | £130.00 | -69.55% |
| 22/05/2017 | Carlisle | 5 | Il Sicario | 5.10 | 10.00 | 5 | 8 | 3.5l | -£10.00 | -£100.42 | £140.00 | -71.73% |
| 26/05/2017 | Bath | 6 | Pennington | 24.00 | 10.00 | 13 | 13 | 22l | -£10.00 | -£110.42 | £150.00 | -73.61% |
| 26/05/2017 | Musselburgh | 4 | Star Of Lombardy | 9.80 | 5.00 | 4 | 9 | 7.5l | -£5.00 | -£115.42 | £155.00 | -74.46% |
| 26/05/2017 | Musselburgh | 5 | Kiribati | 20.00 | 5.00 | 6 | 8 | 15l | -£5.00 | -£120.42 | £160.00 | -75.26% |
| 27/05/2017 | Haydock | 2 | Rusumaat | 7.47 | 10.00 | 1 | 11 | 2.5l | £61.47 | -£58.96 | £170.00 | -34.68% |
| 29/05/2017 | Redcar | 2 | Rainbow Rebel | 12.42 | 8.00 | 2 | 9 | 6l | -£8.00 | -£66.96 | £178.00 | -37.62% |
| 29/05/2017 | Redcar | 2 | Beardwood | 15.00 | 2.00 | 5 | 9 | 9l | -£2.00 | -£68.96 | £180.00 | -38.31% |
| 31/05/2017 | Nottingham | 5 | Dominating | 3.20 | 20.00 | 1 | 7 | 4l | £41.80 | -£27.16 | £200.00 | -13.58% |
| 06/06/2017 | Wetherby | 6 | Pennington | 34.72 | 3.00 | 10 | 10 | 34l | -£3.00 | -£30.16 | £203.00 | -14.85% |
| 08/06/2017 | Ripon | 5 | Powerful Love | 7.00 | 10.00 | 8 | 9 | 39l | -£10.00 | -£40.16 | £213.00 | -18.85% |
| 08/06/2017 | Ripon | 5 | Gold Merlion | 16.46 | 5.00 | 5 | 7 | 18l | -£5.00 | -£45.16 | £218.00 | -20.71% |
| 09/06/2017 | Goodwood | 5 | Alexander M | 7.84 | 5.00 | 2 | 8 | 1.25l | -£5.00 | -£50.16 | £223.00 | -22.49% |
| 09/06/2017 | Goodwood | 3 | Berengaria | 5.19 | 10.00 | 5 | 5 | 10l | -£10.00 | -£60.16 | £233.00 | -25.82% |
| 14/06/2017 | Haydock | 4 | Storm Cry | 5.10 | 10.00 | 3 | 8 | 1l | -£10.00 | -£70.16 | £243.00 | -28.87% |
| 17/06/2017 | York | 2 | Poets Society | 50.91 | 5.00 | 4 | 18 | 1.5l | -£5.00 | -£75.16 | £248.00 | -30.30% |
| 17/06/2017 | York | 2 | Poets Society | 8.00 | 5.00 | 4 | 18 | 1.5l | £33.25 | -£41.91 | £253.00 | -16.56% |
| 17/06/2017 | Sandown | 3 | Comedy School | 34.05 | 10.00 | 8 | 8 | 8.5l | -£10.00 | -£51.91 | £263.00 | -19.74% |
| 19/06/2017 | Carlisle | 5 | Ravenhoe | 14.50 | 10.00 | 6 | 11 | 12.5l | -£10.00 | -£61.91 | £273.00 | -22.68% |
| 22/06/2017 | Ascot | 2 | Bear Valley | 32.00 | 5.00 | 3 | 18 | 3.25l | -£5.00 | -£66.91 | £278.00 | -24.07% |
| 23/06/2017 | Ascot | 1 | Time To Study | 8.55 | 6.00 | 5 | 13 | 3.5l | -£6.00 | -£72.91 | £284.00 | -25.67% |
| 23/06/2017 | Ascot | 1 | Mister Manduro | 34.00 | 4.00 | 7 | 13 | 4.5l | -£4.00 | -£76.91 | £288.00 | -26.70% |
| 23/06/2017 | Ascot | 2 | Soldier In Action | 37.73 | 5.00 | 12 | 19 | 6.75l | -£5.00 | -£81.91 | £293.00 | -27.95% |
| 23/06/2017 | Newmarket(J) | 4 | Monticello | 8.73 | 10.00 | 2 | 7 | nk | -£10.00 | -£91.91 | £303.00 | -30.33% |
| 24/06/2017 | Redcar | 4 | GoNowGoNow | 7.76 | 10.00 | 4 | 7 | 3.75l | -£10.00 | -£101.91 | £313.00 | -32.56% |
| 27/06/2017 | Beverley | 5 | Yorkee Mo Sabee | 5.46 | 10.00 | 3 | 12 | 1.5l | -£10.00 | -£111.91 | £323.00 | -34.65% |
| 27/06/2017 | Leicester | 5 | Hope Against Hope | 8.87 | 10.00 | 1 | 11 | 3l | £74.77 | -£37.14 | £333.00 | -11.15% |
| 27/06/2017 | Leicester | 5 | Valley Of Rocks | 5.86 | 10.00 | 3 | 7 | 3l | -£10.00 | -£47.14 | £343.00 | -13.74% |
| 28/06/2017 | Bath | 4 | Highly Sprung | 6.00 | 10.00 | 5 | 6 | 7.75l | -£10.00 | -£57.14 | £353.00 | -16.19% |
| 01/07/2017 | York | 2 | Bear Valley | 11.31 | 5.00 | 12 | 12 | 11.5l | -£5.00 | -£62.14 | £358.00 | -17.36% |
| 03/07/2017 | Pontefract | 3 | love oasis | 4.57 | 10.00 | 8 | 8 | 8l | -£10.00 | -£72.14 | £368.00 | -19.60% |
| 03/07/2017 | Hamilton | 5 | Powerful Love | 10.50 | 5.00 | 5 | 9 | 10l | -£5.00 | -£77.14 | £373.00 | -20.68% |
| 03/07/2017 | Hamilton | 4 | Celestation | 7.86 | 5.00 | 2 | 6 | 2.25l | -£5.00 | -£82.14 | £378.00 | -21.73% |
| 04/07/2017 | Hamilton | 2 | Masham Star | 6.84 | 10.00 | 2 | 11 | 1.25l | -£10.00 | -£92.14 | £388.00 | -23.75% |
| 04/07/2017 | Hamilton | 2 | Aardwolf | 21.00 | 5.00 | 5 | 11 | 7.5l | -£5.00 | -£97.14 | £393.00 | -24.72% |
| 04/07/2017 | Hamilton | 5 | Addicted To You | 6.87 | 10.00 | 2 | 8 | 1.25l | -£10.00 | -£107.14 | £403.00 | -26.59% |
| 06/07/2017 | Epsom | 5 | Star Of Lombardy | 4.90 | 10.00 | 1 | 6 | 1l | £37.05 | -£70.09 | £413.00 | -16.97% |
| 06/07/2017 | Epsom | 3 | Storm Cry | 4.10 | 10.00 | 2 | 8 | 0.75l | -£10.00 | -£80.09 | £423.00 | -18.93% |
| 07/07/2017 | Sandown | 2 | Beardwood | 4.58 | 10.00 | 2 | 6 | hd | -£10.00 | -£90.09 | £433.00 | -20.81% |
| 07/07/2017 | Beverley | 5 | Hamster Jam | 9.40 | 5.00 | 2 | 5 | hd | -£5.00 | -£95.09 | £438.00 | -21.71% |
| 07/07/2017 | Haydock | 5 | Grey Diamond | 22.25 | 5.00 | 5 | 5 | 6.5l | -£5.00 | -£100.09 | £443.00 | -22.59% |
| 08/07/2017 | Haydock | 2 | Soldier In Action | 16.00 | 10.00 | 2 | 16 | 2.25l | -£10.00 | -£110.09 | £453.00 | -24.30% |
| 08/07/2017 | Nottingham | 6 | Gold Merlion | 76.73 | 5.00 | 9 | 14 | 14l | -£5.00 | -£115.09 | £458.00 | -25.13% |
| 08/07/2017 | Nottingham | 4 | Comedy School | 10.62 | 15.00 | 4 | 8 | 8.25l | -£15.00 | -£130.09 | £473.00 | -27.50% |
| 08/07/2017 | Carlisle | 4 | Lonely The Brave | 6.91 | 15.00 | 4 | 6 | 3.5l | -£15.00 | -£145.09 | £488.00 | -29.73% |
| 12/07/2017 | Yarmouth | 3 | Morning Suit | 13.00 | 10.00 | 3 | 8 | 1l | -£10.00 | -£155.09 | £498.00 | -31.14% |
| 12/07/2017 | Catterick | 4 | Addicted To You | 2.11 | 30.00 | 1 | 6 | 4l | £31.64 | -£123.46 | £528.00 | -23.38% |
| 12/07/2017 | Bath | 6 | Bicolour | 3.79 | 30.00 | 7 | 7 | 69l | -£30.00 | -£153.46 | £558.00 | -27.50% |
| 13/07/2017 | Bath | 1 | Gloriosus | 15.35 | 10.00 | 6 | 7 | 11l | -£10.00 | -£163.46 | £568.00 | -28.78% |
| 13/07/2017 | Newmarket(J) | 1 | Cardsharp | 12.00 | 10.00 | 1 | 12 | 1.75l | £104.50 | -£58.96 | £578.00 | -10.20% |
| 13/07/2017 | Newmarket(J) | 2 | Poets Society | 25.21 | 10.00 | 9 | 19 | 5l | -£10.00 | -£68.96 | £588.00 | -11.73% |
| 13/07/2017 | Newmarket(J) | 2 | love oasis | 14.28 | 3.00 | 6 | 19 | 2l | -£3.00 | -£71.96 | £591.00 | -12.18% |
| 13/07/2017 | Carlisle | 4 | Storm Cry | 3.38 | 30.00 | 6 | 7 | 7.25l | -£30.00 | -£101.96 | £621.00 | -16.42% |
| 14/07/2017 | York | 2 | Beardwood | 11.00 | 10.00 | 5 | 7 | 8.5l | -£10.00 | -£111.96 | £631.00 | -17.74% |
| 14/07/2017 | Newmarket(J) | 2 | Monticello | 8.29 | 10.00 | 10 | 11 | 13l | -£10.00 | -£121.96 | £641.00 | -19.03% |
| 15/07/2017 | Newmarket(j) | 2 | Masham Star | 9.91 | 10.00 | 2 | 10 | 1.5l | -£10.00 | -£131.96 | £651.00 | -20.27% |
| 15/07/2017 | Ascot | 2 | Bear Valley | 17.17 | 10.00 | 8 | 9 | 10.5l | -£10.00 | -£141.96 | £661.00 | -21.48% |
| 15/07/2017 | Hamilton | 4 | Villa Tora | 8.48 | 20.00 | 4 | 10 | 4.25l | -£20.00 | -£161.96 | £681.00 | -23.78% |
| 15/07/2017 | Hamilton | 4 | Highly Sprung | 11.48 | 10.00 | 6 | 7 | 8l | -£10.00 | -£171.96 | £691.00 | -24.88% |
| 15/07/2017 | Hamilton | 6 | Pennington | 22.00 | 6.00 | 12 | 12 | 26l | -£6.00 | -£177.96 | £697.00 | -25.53% |
| 18/07/2017 | Beverley | 4 | The Blues master | 4.20 | 30.00 | 4 | 7 | 7l | -£30.00 | -£207.96 | £727.00 | -28.60% |
| 20/07/2017 | Epsom | 4 | White Tower | 20.17 | 5.00 | 4 | 5 | 8.75l | -£5.00 | -£212.96 | £732.00 | -29.09% |
| 21/07/2017 | Hamilton | 2 | Rich And Famous | 24.37 | 5.00 | 9 | 14 | 7.75l | -£5.00 | -£217.96 | £737.00 | -29.57% |
| 21/07/2017 | Pontefract | 3 | Poets Society | 6.89 | 20.00 | 7 | 8 | 11.5l | -£20.00 | -£237.96 | £757.00 | -31.43% |
| 21/07/2017 | Pontefract | 3 | Morning Suit | 6.40 | 15.00 | 6 | 7 | 5l | -£15.00 | -£252.96 | £772.00 | -32.77% |
| 21/07/2017 | Hamilton | 5 | Bonnie Arlene | 3.37 | 30.00 | 4 | 7 | 8l | -£30.00 | -£282.96 | £802.00 | -35.28% |
| 02/08/2017 | Goodwood | 2 | Londinium | 11.23 | 10.00 | 1 | 14 | 1.5l | £97.19 | -£185.77 | £812.00 | -22.88% |
| 02/08/2017 | Goodwood | 2 | Hochfield | 8.32 | 5.00 | 6 | 14 | 12.5l | -£5.00 | -£190.77 | £817.00 | -23.35% |
| 03/08/2017 | Goodwood | 2 | Monticello | 17.91 | 5.00 | 13 | 13 | 38l | -£5.00 | -£195.77 | £822.00 | -23.82% |
| 03/08/2017 | Goodwood | 2 | Morning Suit | 26.09 | 5.00 | 8 | 13 | 10.5l | -£5.00 | -£200.77 | £827.00 | -24.28% |
| 04/08/2017 | Goodwood | 3 | Bear Valley | 22.74 | 5.00 | 8 | 12 | 19l | -£5.00 | -£205.77 | £832.00 | -24.73% |
| 04/08/2017 | Goodwood | 3 | Star Of The East | 31.29 | 5.00 | 11 | 12 | 55l | -£5.00 | -£210.77 | £837.00 | -25.18% |
| 05/08/2017 | Goodwood | 2 | Jaameh | 13.15 | 10.00 | 5 | 13 | 2.5l | -£10.00 | -£220.77 | £847.00 | -26.06% |
| 05/08/2017 | Goodwood | 2 | Soldier In Action | 14.69 | 5.00 | 1 | 13 | hd | £65.03 | -£155.74 | £852.00 | -18.28% |
[/size]
| selections | 87 |
| wins | 10 |
| expected wins BFSP | 9.86 |
| avg odds | 14.15 |
A decent enough GG but still a lot of work to do to get out intact this season.
didn't back prestbury park, it was a good tip and write up, and looked good going forward, including your info on the favourable 2yo stats this season, did check the form of the fav in that race after the result, would be very hard to argue that it was better
than pp's form, maybe the fav went off so short because of the pedigree or connections, not something I'm concerned with anyways.
than pp's form, maybe the fav went off so short because of the pedigree or connections, not something I'm concerned with anyways.
I see Roadrunner apologies got the wrong end of the stick there.
Take me to the Tower one last time
Deemed good enough to have a go at G2 last year
Now fell out the back of H'cap to a 5
Should pick up a cple of shorties
Deemed good enough to have a go at G2 last year
Now fell out the back of H'cap to a 5
Should pick up a cple of shorties
I've followed too many of these for no reward hatters this season. 
gemologist didn't seem to fire last time but run before looks pretty good to me if lto was just a bad day for whatever reason.
Where are the unexposed handicappers this season that have needed time to strengthen to get some distance.
gemologist didn't seem to fire last time but run before looks pretty good to me if lto was just a bad day for whatever reason.
Where are the unexposed handicappers this season that have needed time to strengthen to get some distance.
Looking at the makeup of the race
The cynic in me says could drop it again today then go up dist
The cynic in me says could drop it again today then go up dist
The last 2 3yo's in 3yo+hcp sheikh runners dropped a stone or more behind their highest OR's have won (furiant btn 15l lto 36.0 and Chupalla btn 18l lto 46.73)
overall 3-12 (1.17 expected)
very small samples but perhaps it is worth a go at today's sort of price, funny enough both of these had won on debut too and not managed to win for some time since reviving.
overall 3-12 (1.17 expected)
very small samples but perhaps it is worth a go at today's sort of price, funny enough both of these had won on debut too and not managed to win for some time since reviving.
*That search was dropped a stone or more and stuffed 15-30l last time out
As stated ridiculously small sample size but it certainly doesn't pour cold water over a revival with today's runner either!
As stated ridiculously small sample size but it certainly doesn't pour cold water over a revival with today's runner either!
The 3 could take or leave for various reasons at the prices all won today.
that last 2yo was quite incredible managing to win doing that zig zagging across the track
Curlew River very unexposed with the age allowance again stepping up to 1m4f at Brighton today after it's Leicester success over 10f in the same class, this is a decent prize for the class and should give a very good account of himself. The course stats for this type are good, the sheikh has a very good record in these 3yo+ (3yo's) in the class and the top weight and follow up stats are strong too.Hopefully settles better than the only time joe was aboard previously when lost all chance in a better race on the aw.
think the current price of near 5/1 on here for this sort is ok today with all the profile ticks.
Mistime was due to take her chance in Titi Makfi's GG race last week but ruled out late with a self cert. Not many would be sent to GG without being race fit with such a profile and this is obviously a less hot contest today but my gut feeling with this jockey booking (nothing against him) suggests other days may be a better proposition, Franny is off to Haydock for one ride for Tony Carroll this afternoon and SDS is on the current betfair market leader in the race. The profile has plenty to be positive about generally, these layoffs would not put me off even this far into the season with unexposed handicappers (first run at trip today) but I'm banking on my gut feeling being right and today not being the day.
3:30 Brighton Curlew River (£15), current odds 5.8
think the current price of near 5/1 on here for this sort is ok today with all the profile ticks.
Mistime was due to take her chance in Titi Makfi's GG race last week but ruled out late with a self cert. Not many would be sent to GG without being race fit with such a profile and this is obviously a less hot contest today but my gut feeling with this jockey booking (nothing against him) suggests other days may be a better proposition, Franny is off to Haydock for one ride for Tony Carroll this afternoon and SDS is on the current betfair market leader in the race. The profile has plenty to be positive about generally, these layoffs would not put me off even this far into the season with unexposed handicappers (first run at trip today) but I'm banking on my gut feeling being right and today not being the day.
3:30 Brighton Curlew River (£15), current odds 5.8
Cheers Hatters/Wonders
Ravenhoe the only other this evening. Has got it's class, trip (course should suit too) and is in it's usual hcp range to win. But has taken advantage of pretty weak contests and it would surprise me somewhat if enough including the 2 lto winners misfired as I think they would have to for Ravenhoe to prevail on ground that hasn't been seen as optimum.
Overall hcp record is 3-40 and all 3 wins have been against races made up of non winners lto. 2 placed efforts from 23 runs against any winners lto in it's races isn't great to say the least.
Ravenhoe the only other this evening. Has got it's class, trip (course should suit too) and is in it's usual hcp range to win. But has taken advantage of pretty weak contests and it would surprise me somewhat if enough including the 2 lto winners misfired as I think they would have to for Ravenhoe to prevail on ground that hasn't been seen as optimum.
Overall hcp record is 3-40 and all 3 wins have been against races made up of non winners lto. 2 placed efforts from 23 runs against any winners lto in it's races isn't great to say the least.
Am out tomorrow should be back about 3:30
Plenty of likely looking types but not sure come race time how many are going to appeal at the prices,
My chum Highly Sprung still potentially has 6-8lbs to play with imo, missing this at Redcar still smarts tbh had been banging on about what it needs and then managed to not commit at a decent price. Had to inject his own pace plenty early enough last time and should get something more solid to run at dragging him into the race as he likes, the Brighton finish on fast ground should be ideal over 6f.
Yorkidding been freshened up and really should run a big race in that field, Berengaria has had experience of better class but is still pretty unexposed on fast ground, like today's winner another Sheikh runner in a class 4 3yo+, not as strong for me as today's and all about price.
Will see the state of play when I get in tomorrow.
Passing on Berengaria though not the easiest of leaves with a lot of the same characteristics as yesterdays winner at track.
Form not really stacked up enough for me this year looking at what's come out of it's races, you'd have expected better after last season's efforts and could easily get back on track today.
Form not really stacked up enough for me this year looking at what's come out of it's races, you'd have expected better after last season's efforts and could easily get back on track today.
Highly Sprung has to be selected today, I thought that once it got conditions off it's mark before the last win that it could easily get a couple of quick races landed and I still think He should be well treated here with optimum looking conditions again and SDS up.
There should be a decent pace to sit off and I'm hoping a strong late SDS drive can get him home again and gain some compensation for me missing it at Redcar. If he can't land the spoils I'll put this horse down to one that got away this season!
4:10 Brighton Highly Sprung (£25) current odds 4.7
There should be a decent pace to sit off and I'm hoping a strong late SDS drive can get him home again and gain some compensation for me missing it at Redcar. If he can't land the spoils I'll put this horse down to one that got away this season!
4:10 Brighton Highly Sprung (£25) current odds 4.7
On a real poor run with Johnstons runners but cant see past Highly Sprung here, if this doesnt go close I'll just give up.
justra complete non event
be interesting if that run gets put behind was just never in it from the start.
but This is one that has beaten me this season and I won't be following anymore.
be interesting if that run gets put behind was just never in it from the start.
but This is one that has beaten me this season and I won't be following anymore.
Town Charter the one that catches the eye most today. Notebooked after HQ run at big odds when never in the race but steadily keeping on in a class 2 off 87 nearly grabbing 2nd behind parfait who is clearly different gravy (won off 100 back at HQ subsequently).
Redcar was disappointing upped to the mile when not really settling, didn't have anything late left in the tank.
Chester held up from a wide draw before marked late gains back over 7f, a typical chester run with a poor draw.
Ayr was a shocker when well fancied, front running but went out like alight.
Ripon in today's class over today's trip didn't get the clearest of runs or going early enough before making late gains off 83 just out of the places.
Last run didn't seem to pick up at Newcastle on the tapeta over 7f and has dropped another couple of lbs.
A horse that may well just not be quite putting it in but definitely seems to appreciate a bit of cut and the mile trip has on a few occasions looked to be what's probably needed now. Has come down quite significantly in the ratings since the promising HQ run and on a going day in today's class is probably worth a final chance imo at 5/1+
will see nearer the race what the market is looking like
Redcar was disappointing upped to the mile when not really settling, didn't have anything late left in the tank.
Chester held up from a wide draw before marked late gains back over 7f, a typical chester run with a poor draw.
Ayr was a shocker when well fancied, front running but went out like alight.
Ripon in today's class over today's trip didn't get the clearest of runs or going early enough before making late gains off 83 just out of the places.
Last run didn't seem to pick up at Newcastle on the tapeta over 7f and has dropped another couple of lbs.
A horse that may well just not be quite putting it in but definitely seems to appreciate a bit of cut and the mile trip has on a few occasions looked to be what's probably needed now. Has come down quite significantly in the ratings since the promising HQ run and on a going day in today's class is probably worth a final chance imo at 5/1+
will see nearer the race what the market is looking like
You putting a lid on that one se? Must admit, it went in my notebook after the Parfait run, but managed to swerve it since.
Perhaps a bit free over a mile again there PHS but It was a bit of an iffy one trust wise, not one I'm going to follow down any further.
La Casa Tarifa just 3lb higher than winning a similar race ratings wise at course 3 starts back.
well fancied at cramped odds but blew the start at Nottingham then quite likely got bogged down at Goodwood with no market interest on the day in better company.
Back at Ripon this one is tempting around 5/1
well fancied at cramped odds but blew the start at Nottingham then quite likely got bogged down at Goodwood with no market interest on the day in better company.
Back at Ripon this one is tempting around 5/1
I'm going to pass but not an easy one to swerve here
phew, the thing that put me off most was very few of these ones with ?? top answer seem to be bouncing back, certainly not many I've given the benefit anyhow
SDS good record on these follow ups in the lower classes for yard and top rated horses in such races.
Bonnie Arlene been round the houses trip wise, looks better on turf and should get this trip round here. Price is just about ok imo.
4:00 Ripon Bonnie Arlene (£20)
Bonnie Arlene been round the houses trip wise, looks better on turf and should get this trip round here. Price is just about ok imo.
4:00 Ripon Bonnie Arlene (£20)
last one of the shorties for the season that one.
doesn't really look like it stays but it's been chopped and changed so much in trip god knows.
that was rank anyway
doesn't really look like it stays but it's been chopped and changed so much in trip god knows.
that was rank anyway
A couple of interesting ones today.
The nursery runner Go Now Go Now has some strong angles. class 5 nurseries with a win lto 10-22 (6 expected).
Runners remaining in this class from last run that placed lto and see just a 1/2f change in trip are 5-5 (1.2 expected)
2yo nursery runners in the class in August are 10-27 (5.29 expected)
PJ is 10-37 on turf 2yo's (5.17 expected)
Nepeta started out at last season's GG showing a bit of promise, mdn was landed on 3rd start and some of subsequent from has been patchy regards it's depth but in relation to a race of this sort of class it would often be more than adequate for a horse that should be better over more of a trip this season.
The layoffs up to around 6 months don't seem to be a problem but this sort of layoff isn't as strong to hope it's going to be fully wound up today and I have no idea why this has been kept from the track so it has obvious risks attached. I was hoping to find the Beverley air powers of revival to be in evidence with this sort off the layoff but there are none in my DB.
Filed under the interesting but risky sort that has definitely not paid off on here this season so far.
Valley Of Rocks has been a bit of a character and may well have his own ideas, very keen at times when on the front end before more recent patient tactics which saw a win that at the time I thought could see some further progress (seemed to show a good attitude to get up from unpromising position at Leicester). It looks very much now that he took advantage of them coming back that day in a weak race (19lb lower than today's average OR) and since then has not figured in similar looking races as today's. I can't really see why VOR would have any decent claims against a few of these that should be more capable in the class.
The nursery runner Go Now Go Now has some strong angles. class 5 nurseries with a win lto 10-22 (6 expected).
Runners remaining in this class from last run that placed lto and see just a 1/2f change in trip are 5-5 (1.2 expected)
2yo nursery runners in the class in August are 10-27 (5.29 expected)
PJ is 10-37 on turf 2yo's (5.17 expected)
Nepeta started out at last season's GG showing a bit of promise, mdn was landed on 3rd start and some of subsequent from has been patchy regards it's depth but in relation to a race of this sort of class it would often be more than adequate for a horse that should be better over more of a trip this season.
The layoffs up to around 6 months don't seem to be a problem but this sort of layoff isn't as strong to hope it's going to be fully wound up today and I have no idea why this has been kept from the track so it has obvious risks attached. I was hoping to find the Beverley air powers of revival to be in evidence with this sort off the layoff but there are none in my DB.
Filed under the interesting but risky sort that has definitely not paid off on here this season so far.
Valley Of Rocks has been a bit of a character and may well have his own ideas, very keen at times when on the front end before more recent patient tactics which saw a win that at the time I thought could see some further progress (seemed to show a good attitude to get up from unpromising position at Leicester). It looks very much now that he took advantage of them coming back that day in a weak race (19lb lower than today's average OR) and since then has not figured in similar looking races as today's. I can't really see why VOR would have any decent claims against a few of these that should be more capable in the class.
Stats on Go Now above ave all round
A shoe in then
Nepeta worth a go
Ground change a concern but who knows level after layoff
Bring on the sun
Average field
Valley up against a hard rock with up in class
GL
A shoe in then
Nepeta worth a go
Ground change a concern but who knows level after layoff
Bring on the sun
Average field
Valley up against a hard rock with up in class
GL
Going to have a look at these markets on the first 2 hatters
Just had to get some air for a few mins.
Confession... thought GNGN race was 4:10
Good that it won for the stats but hardly a consolation, can't afford fook ups like that with the state of play!
Not playing any others now.
very frustrating but have to get on with it.
Confession... thought GNGN race was 4:10
Good that it won for the stats but hardly a consolation, can't afford fook ups like that with the state of play!
Not playing any others now.
very frustrating but have to get on with it.
Morning Suit & Blues today
Drop back & better ground (hope)
GL
Nepeta ran like a cat nipped his energy
Drop back & better ground (hope)
GL
Nepeta ran like a cat nipped his energy
No profile pluses today.
Thought Poets Society would like today's stiff test at HQ, the valuable york race 6f when staying on better than anything having raced prominently and getting tapped for toe in today's class (first 5 all won since).Handled soft at chester keeping on again late when headed over 5f.Yes managed to scrape a win at HQ over the minimum but to me that was in spite of conditions and the class was the key. You would think at first glance that this race may be a bit hot but that york run is in the back of the mind still.
This conditions mix today could be just the ticket and the low weight may really help in conditions.
It's certainly not a confident pick but 17/1 worth a poke, probably last chance to land a race like this if hunch is correct that stern test will suit now.
2:45 Poets Society, current odds 18.0
like so many if the hunch is wrong, he's probably out with the washing!
Gl with yours Hatters
Thought Poets Society would like today's stiff test at HQ, the valuable york race 6f when staying on better than anything having raced prominently and getting tapped for toe in today's class (first 5 all won since).Handled soft at chester keeping on again late when headed over 5f.Yes managed to scrape a win at HQ over the minimum but to me that was in spite of conditions and the class was the key. You would think at first glance that this race may be a bit hot but that york run is in the back of the mind still.
This conditions mix today could be just the ticket and the low weight may really help in conditions.
It's certainly not a confident pick but 17/1 worth a poke, probably last chance to land a race like this if hunch is correct that stern test will suit now.
2:45 Poets Society, current odds 18.0
like so many if the hunch is wrong, he's probably out with the washing!
Gl with yours Hatters
nice 2yo winner earlier Austrian School
very green but won cosy at the post.
some nice 2yo's again this term.
very green but won cosy at the post.
some nice 2yo's again this term.
should have stuck to the profiles
that one was weak
quite a quiet outing on the wrong part of the track
that one was weak
quite a quiet outing on the wrong part of the track
4:35 Pontefract
Morning Suit current odds 6.6 (£20)
A good batch of runners yesterday a couple of which were revived, most ran very good races and this one was pulled out of a HQ hcp.
No massive reason to think this one will come back to form today apart from a gut feeling, to me it looks like 10f on decent ground would be worth a go.There should be some pace here despite the small field.I'm not convinced about Lomu settling over this trip but hopefully SDS can stalk on Morning Suit and they will come back to him in the straight, this sort of finish should suit over this trip, it's last run here was bizarre as got a tardy start and only got going far too late.
Morning Suit current odds 6.6 (£20)
A good batch of runners yesterday a couple of which were revived, most ran very good races and this one was pulled out of a HQ hcp.
No massive reason to think this one will come back to form today apart from a gut feeling, to me it looks like 10f on decent ground would be worth a go.There should be some pace here despite the small field.I'm not convinced about Lomu settling over this trip but hopefully SDS can stalk on Morning Suit and they will come back to him in the straight, this sort of finish should suit over this trip, it's last run here was bizarre as got a tardy start and only got going far too late.
I give up
need a break from this game for a few months
will post final p&l later
need a break from this game for a few months
will post final p&l later
Rub salt in the wound Fanning
Bluesy picked up a place
Bluesy picked up a place
I've lost my mojo hatters
going to do a few months work and come back refreshed, head just not in it.
going to do a few months work and come back refreshed, head just not in it.
Used to love mojos
The old fave running later
Cud it spring back from outer draw
Lay
The old fave running later
Cud it spring back from outer draw
Lay
mj had a good winning 3yo the other day, with the ground coming just right for it on the day. overall you know when
the time is right to follow this trainer. tracking his runners everyday is pointless, if his horses have a bad season
its mission impossible following his runners. goodluck
the time is right to follow this trainer. tracking his runners everyday is pointless, if his horses have a bad season
its mission impossible following his runners. goodluck
Rufus roughcut for the big pot
In the days when wagon wheels were as big as car tyres V
In the days when wagon wheels were as big as car tyres V
Optical illusion .....
Your hands and mouth were smaller
Now I can eat them whole in one go
Your hands and mouth were smaller
Now I can eat them whole in one go
i notice fanning gone to goodwood today for one ride sutter county.any thoughts?franny gone to newmarket thought he would have gone to his beloved chester
What's winning for Johnston today lads ? Sutter county must have a chance, what else ?
What do we think about Frankuus in the 6.40 Windy?
All guns blazing today
Izzy bizzy
Cardsharp
& Titti
COD could do for frankie if back on song
Izzy bizzy
Cardsharp
& Titti
COD could do for frankie if back on song
Let's face it, back then the handicappers just were'nt in form, but now..., well now they are. Great end to the season.
It was a good and interesting read but to try to work out the most inconsistent no idea how they are going to run trainer was impossible if it was done with someone like haggis you would do very well
Not sure abt the great end
Few shortie hcappers & 2yo's picking up some pots
Looked long & hard at that Rebel Sat trying to find a reason to back it
Cudnt have it at all
What do i know
Enigma rools
Few shortie hcappers & 2yo's picking up some pots
Looked long & hard at that Rebel Sat trying to find a reason to back it
Cudnt have it at all
What do i know
Enigma rools
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