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Minella Rocco Grand National ?????
Minella Rocco Grand National ?????
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Say you were Lucky Enough to own him ,you have other options in the race, Rocco has time on his Hands ,Would you Run him ??
Being I thought he was Dead 3 runs back  I think hes done enough for the season No way I would run him . |
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I'd certainly run him.
He's only had four runs this term and one of those he went out at the fifth. If he's mature enough to run in the GC he's mature enough for the GN. |
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the stat against 7 year olds is very strong, and there have been a few fancied ones running over the years. I don't think it would be a good idea running it this year
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just checked and the last time a 7 year old won it was 1940!
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One due then
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Looked like a pretty decent GN trial run to me. I'd run it in the national if it were mine.
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you wernt the one banging on about the french bred stat a few years back were you,
 off course 99% of the 7 year old stat like all the stats are based on the national as it was ,not as it is now |
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horse won't fail because it's 7. most 7 year olds fail because their stamina isn't well developed enough at that age or they don't have enough experience of jumping fences. this horse has already jumped around twice at the cheltenham festival and won a four miler.
if he gets beat won't be because of his age. |
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A few post-war near misses for 7yos...
1953. 7yo Mont Tremblant carried 12-5 into 2nd place, having finished 4th in the Gold Cup earlier in the month. (He'd won the Gold Cup as a 6yo). 1957. 7yo Wyndburgh finished 2nd. He also went on to finish 2nd as a 9yo, and as a 12yo. 1963. 7yo Carrickbeg was caught close home and beaten 3/4 length under amateur John Lawrence, later known also as Lord Oaksey. 1971. 7yo Black Secret was beaten a neck. 7yo mare Sandy Sprite wasn't beaten far in 5th, having broken down when clear on the run to 2 out, and having not been passed until half way up the run-in. Young Hustler is the only 7yo in the last 25 years to be placed in the Gold Cup and to then run in the following Grand National. He was prominent when brought down by a loose horse at the 11th. He ran at both Cheltenham and Aintree in 5 successive years - 3 times trying the Gold Cup and National. His best National effort was a 5th as a 9yo, the only time he completed in the race. |
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its just a numbers game aint it how many 7 yr olds run as against i dont no 30 8,9,10,11 yr olds on the day
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16 have run in last 7 years. Shortest price 14/1. Best placing is Vieux Lion Rouge's 7th place last year.
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so 16 7yr olds have run against about 250 other aged horses in a short weight range handicap,not really a stat is it
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He is a certainty if he takes to the fences and he has as good a chance of taking to the fences as any other horse that has never jumped these unique fences.
How far would he have won the Gold Cup if it was over 4.5 miles? Mortgage job (for the brave) |
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had some free bets from chelt put them on rocco at 10,s nrnb just in case he goes
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That's all very well but can he give 8 lbs. to Cause of Causes who , as Gordon says " always seems to run well on the big days ".
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Il say the same as I said about Onenightinvienna last year.
Why risk the horses life. The way he races negates him being well handicapped |
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Why risk a horse of Gold Cup class?
Are you sure Jasey? |
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According to my tally, since Black Secret finished second in 1971, 57 7 year-olds have run in the race without finishing in the first 4. There have been a few 6 year-olds as well, also unplaced.
These statistics don't rule out the possibility of a different outcome this year - the race has changed and, after all, Vic's Canvas defied similar stats last year. However, I wouldn't run a classy 7 year-old in the race when the Irish GN is a week later. Mind you, I wouldn't have run Synchronised either. |
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Phil Smith has probably just made the decision a lot easier. Minella Rocco put up 10lbs to 166 for his Gold Cup run.
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Am I wrong in thinking that he wouldn't get a penalty for Fairyhouse, either?
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Jonjo has just posted on Twitter that he won't run in the National and has been taken at todays declaration stage. Won't run again this season.
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Ok, so he is saving him for when he is 10lb higher next season. Makes sense
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only just occurred to me, but they are probably mindful about what happened to Synchronised.
Minella Rocco jumped all the way around Leopardstown after falling too. I know it wasa freak accident but could be on their minds. |
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Poor old Synchronised should never have been in that national hopefully they have learnt not to be to greedy.
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A sensible decision imo.
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Was never going to Run after GC run imo.
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ffs it takes oneil al season to get them fit and right to do themselves justice then there put away again,by next season oneil means next march
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gold cup aside, not much to write home about for the yard at the fez
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O'Neil knows better than anyone on here what's best for the horse.
He must think he'll be better put away until next year or he'd run him. Or that 10lbs has made up his mind for him. They'll live to regret that run in the Gold Cup. |
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Or that 10lbs has made up his mind for him.
The National weights are fixed so Minella Rocco would not carry the extra weight in this year's Grand National, he'd just be (officially) ten pounds well in, so this is not why he won't run. |
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Exactly, more of a reason for the horse to run in the race, than not.!
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to be fair the horse finished second in a gold cup so it's not like they're limited to thinking about the grand national only
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The National weights are fixed
Yes I thought that might be the case but someone else's comments put me off. Thanks for pointing it out. |
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He's not my idea of a Gold Cup horse.
Outpaced three out, and not for the first if you care to read through his form. The horse is a stayer, he lacks a turn of foot at this level. He did very well in this years GC to run on through beaten horses to snatch second prize by a short head from Native River, whom he beat one and a quarter lengths last time they met by the way. His stamina will always make him a good bet for the place money, but these types invariably find one or two at the end of a big race that can stay and find a bit of pace as well. |