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13 Mar 17
19:16
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Date Joined:
14 Apr 06
Good evening all,
Haven’t been around in a posting capacity for some time; however I’ve been looking forward to this week( as I’m sure plenty others have) for months now. I’ve taken the week off work to watch it on the TV, but maybe on Thursday I will catch it on Hexham’s big screen as I’ve made arrangements to go up with family. I will only be backing in the handicaps and will post some of my thoughts and reasoning as the week goes on in this thread, some selections fairly obvious and some slightly more obscure. My record over these 4 days is not exactly brilliant, but on the odd occasion I have shown a fair enough profit and hopefully I can do so this year. I’m not guaranteeing you will make money or be richer if you follow in, but win lose or draw I’ll simply be happy watching a great four days of sport........
Day 1. E.W. bet Holywell 14.50 11-1 generally BOG, 5places.......
.........Holywell seems to have a real penchant for the Cheltenham festival, during middle March something seems to spark within him, allowing him to take his form to another level completely. Having won the Pertemp’s Final in 2013 off a mark of 140 he landed this race as a novice in 2014 off 145, the following season improved to make the frame in a Gold Cup. That day he went off a quietly fancied 8-1 shot, a performance easily in the mid 160’s. Since that momentous run in the Gold Cup things have not looked to go to plan, with his only other piece of worthwhile form subsequently being when runner up in this race last year off a mark of 153.
There seems to have been much talk about the form of Jonjo O’Neill throughout the season, but normally like a few other of his peer group can often be relied upon to ready a few for the festival, no doubt his season may become much more clearer as this week unfolds . It goes without saying that on this seasons performances Holywell can’t possibly win tomorrow’s renewal, but having started his current season off 156 I’d be of the opinion connections would have had tomorrow’s race pencilled in right from the outset, and by finishing most of this seasons races off when his chance had gone has allowed the handicapper to issue the horse with some much needed respite, getting into the race easily below the 155 rating cut off on what looks a handy enough looking mark. Tomorrow he contests the race off 148, 3lb higher than when winning in 2014 and 5lb lower than when runner up last year, that performance ironically also following a fairly low key season from his 3 previous chase outings. Holywell looks simply one of those old fashion spring campaigners, with some top performances in the book coming around this time of year. Lifetime form from the last two weeks in February through to the first week in April reads 1-1-2-1-1-1-1-4-2. The only time he finished unplaced was that magnificent 4th in the Gold Cup, with plenty of the form in that sequence deriving from some well contested graded affairs.
Richie McLernon resumes the partnership tomorrow and has ridden the horse in all of his festival appointments to date, with his overall record when riding fairly solid, particularly in spring. I’m a big fan of horses that seem to get to this festival year after year, the majority of which run with extreme credit, If connections have got him sweetened up to anywhere near the top of his ability he’d be thrown in off 148 tomorrow and at 11-1 in my opinion he’s worth a few quid E.W. with those that are giving the concession of 5places .
Good Luck if you have a dabble.
Haven’t been around in a posting capacity for some time; however I’ve been looking forward to this week( as I’m sure plenty others have) for months now. I’ve taken the week off work to watch it on the TV, but maybe on Thursday I will catch it on Hexham’s big screen as I’ve made arrangements to go up with family. I will only be backing in the handicaps and will post some of my thoughts and reasoning as the week goes on in this thread, some selections fairly obvious and some slightly more obscure. My record over these 4 days is not exactly brilliant, but on the odd occasion I have shown a fair enough profit and hopefully I can do so this year. I’m not guaranteeing you will make money or be richer if you follow in, but win lose or draw I’ll simply be happy watching a great four days of sport........
Day 1. E.W. bet Holywell 14.50 11-1 generally BOG, 5places.......
.........Holywell seems to have a real penchant for the Cheltenham festival, during middle March something seems to spark within him, allowing him to take his form to another level completely. Having won the Pertemp’s Final in 2013 off a mark of 140 he landed this race as a novice in 2014 off 145, the following season improved to make the frame in a Gold Cup. That day he went off a quietly fancied 8-1 shot, a performance easily in the mid 160’s. Since that momentous run in the Gold Cup things have not looked to go to plan, with his only other piece of worthwhile form subsequently being when runner up in this race last year off a mark of 153.
There seems to have been much talk about the form of Jonjo O’Neill throughout the season, but normally like a few other of his peer group can often be relied upon to ready a few for the festival, no doubt his season may become much more clearer as this week unfolds . It goes without saying that on this seasons performances Holywell can’t possibly win tomorrow’s renewal, but having started his current season off 156 I’d be of the opinion connections would have had tomorrow’s race pencilled in right from the outset, and by finishing most of this seasons races off when his chance had gone has allowed the handicapper to issue the horse with some much needed respite, getting into the race easily below the 155 rating cut off on what looks a handy enough looking mark. Tomorrow he contests the race off 148, 3lb higher than when winning in 2014 and 5lb lower than when runner up last year, that performance ironically also following a fairly low key season from his 3 previous chase outings. Holywell looks simply one of those old fashion spring campaigners, with some top performances in the book coming around this time of year. Lifetime form from the last two weeks in February through to the first week in April reads 1-1-2-1-1-1-1-4-2. The only time he finished unplaced was that magnificent 4th in the Gold Cup, with plenty of the form in that sequence deriving from some well contested graded affairs.
Richie McLernon resumes the partnership tomorrow and has ridden the horse in all of his festival appointments to date, with his overall record when riding fairly solid, particularly in spring. I’m a big fan of horses that seem to get to this festival year after year, the majority of which run with extreme credit, If connections have got him sweetened up to anywhere near the top of his ability he’d be thrown in off 148 tomorrow and at 11-1 in my opinion he’s worth a few quid E.W. with those that are giving the concession of 5places .
Good Luck if you have a dabble.
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agree with all you say robster have backed him at 11s lads today good luck
Cheers guys, have been dipping in now and again on a watching brief, with the usual suspects who shall remain nameless have been how can I put it....rather entertaining despite their grammar.
You make a good case. I usually swerve the handicaps apart form a £2 place only on few outsiders. Viconte de Noyer is my long price for tomorrow. Trotted up at Cheltenham in the autumn and beaten on heavy ground since. My main fancies at the moment are Yanworth, Wylde River, Josses Hill, Politologue and the nap of the week, Cue Card.
Hi Robster, nice read and good luck this coming week!
Concerning this race, I can see The Druids Nephew going very well, but a couple of interesting runners for me at reasonable prices, must be Vintage Clouds and Buywise the latter has on the odd occasion looked as if he could potentially stay? I think for betting purposes Vintage cloud will do for me in the place market with a small win also but will bet both.
Concerning this race, I can see The Druids Nephew going very well, but a couple of interesting runners for me at reasonable prices, must be Vintage Clouds and Buywise the latter has on the odd occasion looked as if he could potentially stay? I think for betting purposes Vintage cloud will do for me in the place market with a small win also but will bet both.
Can see why you like Vintage Clouds, he along with A Good Skin and Vic De Touzaine all made my short list as lively outsiders.... Can't back em all I'm afraid so have settled for the tried and tested Holywell...GL with yours
Good Luck with that one Rob,i wouldn't have the old dog on my mind he has not got within a furlong of the Winner in his last 4 runs...11-1???..I Would want at least treble them odds......I dont care how much he loves the track.
He only springs to life this time of year because it is the only time the brakes come off.
More down to his owner than the weather imo.
That said, good luck with your bet.
More down to his owner than the weather imo.
That said, good luck with your bet.
Apolgies to Mrs Gay Smith, more to do with the trainer.
too long in the tooth is Holywell, you cant keep bouncing back at Cheltenham, even if your trained by jonjo
Yep Fancied Vintage ,Also the Small ew Mug Clouds Double 
Only Prob with Vintage he may need another Mile
Or 2
I can't have Holywell either ,But then again I wouldn't be laying it .
Or 2
I can't have Holywell either ,But then again I wouldn't be laying it .
A Good Skin looks an outrageous price at 33/1 ew.
Ryan We.... Just had a look in your Some guesses thread, so pleased someone else has some faith in the old boy (great thread BTW). Also noticed go-all-in having a dabble on Vic De Touzaine at 50's.... I must admit I'm getting tempted into a small saver on both VDT and A Good Skin (50's & 33's)......promised myself I wouldn't but at those sort of prices I'm starting to have those "what if" thoughts traversing through my mind. 
GL as always.
(great thread BTW). Also noticed go-all-in having a dabble on Vic De Touzaine at 50's.... I must admit I'm getting tempted into a small saver on both VDT and A Good Skin (50's & 33's)......promised myself I wouldn't but at those sort of prices I'm starting to have those "what if" thoughts traversing through my mind. GL as always.
Good luck therobster, I've given Holywell a swerve, I've backed Singlefarmpayment.
I'm sure you're as gutted as I am holywell !!
SFP did not deserve to lose. Ran// jumped/ridden to perfection.
SFP did not deserve to lose. Ran// jumped/ridden to perfection.
Yes Facts, I'm not sure whether the horse didn't see it out. Heskin gave it a great ride, maybe the stronger jockey in the finish made the difference. I'll have to watch the replay.
No complaints here, great race and there's plenty more to come.
No complaints here, great race and there's plenty more to come.
Yeh unlucky with the runner up guys, kicking myself a little regards the winner....wormed it's way back to 155 with a decent enough run in the Hennessy and then kept ticking over keeping quite lofty company over hurdles until today, things look so much easier after the event
WD winners
WD winners
I really hope day 2 is as entertaining as the first, with yesterday’s mares OLBG just shading it for race of the day in my book, with Denis O’Regan receiving the plaudits for ride of the day when taking the last on Tully East. O’Regan seen at his best when covering his mount up for almost the entire race, not seeing daylight until jumping the last before careering up the hill to win nicely.
Any how the race I’m concentrating today is the Coral Cup, one of the most fiercely contested betting heats of the entire meeting , with almost everything within this contest having some sort of e.w. squeak.
E.W. bet Tin Soldier 10-1 + smaller E.W. Bravissimo 40-1 ... ¼ odds 1-2-3-4-5 BOG.
In the race more than a few folk’s attentions have been drawn to the chances of Tombstone, if indeed connections did think he was worthy of a Champion hurdle supplementary he could be devilishly hard to beat today in a handicap hurdle off 149, his overall profile seems progressive but I’m certain there are horses within that in the fullness of time could be smarter. At over double Tombstone’s odds and receiving 9lbs Tin Soldier could just be one of those smarter type horses I’ve alluded to, who has been well entered up all week and connections sensibly taking their chances in a handicap off a mark that may prove to be very lenient. He’s not won his races to date looking a horse fast tracked for the top, workman like with a certain air of authority in my opinion the best way of describing his winning races. The thing that has impressed me the most has been his attitude in both those wins, the second of which when beating a small but select field in a Grade 3 at Thurles, stretching away impressively enough in the end giving the impression there was any amount left to come, stepping up in trip and stiff finish looking tailor-made for him.
I’m also taking a flyer on another Willie Mullins inmate, with Katie Walsh retaining the ride on extremely lightly raced Bravissimo , who gave an extremely good impression when landing his maiden back on Boxing Day, with a fair yard stick in Champagne Classic well beaten back in 3rd that day. From that fairly facile maiden win connections thought Bravissimo worthy of being pitched into a much deeper contest Lto, the jump to Grade 1 competition a little too much at that stage in his fledgling career, with Katie giving him a sympathetic ride when his chance had gone. He has been allotted a mark of 136, which may be ok given his unexposed profile, but is one of the most intriguing contenders in the line up given the plethora of ammunition connections could have gone to war with in this particular race. I’m sure he will be another that will benefit from an end to end gallop and could improve significantly for the step up in trip, 40-1 too tempting not to have a wager.
GL if you have a dabble.
Any how the race I’m concentrating today is the Coral Cup, one of the most fiercely contested betting heats of the entire meeting , with almost everything within this contest having some sort of e.w. squeak.
E.W. bet Tin Soldier 10-1 + smaller E.W. Bravissimo 40-1 ... ¼ odds 1-2-3-4-5 BOG.
In the race more than a few folk’s attentions have been drawn to the chances of Tombstone, if indeed connections did think he was worthy of a Champion hurdle supplementary he could be devilishly hard to beat today in a handicap hurdle off 149, his overall profile seems progressive but I’m certain there are horses within that in the fullness of time could be smarter. At over double Tombstone’s odds and receiving 9lbs Tin Soldier could just be one of those smarter type horses I’ve alluded to, who has been well entered up all week and connections sensibly taking their chances in a handicap off a mark that may prove to be very lenient. He’s not won his races to date looking a horse fast tracked for the top, workman like with a certain air of authority in my opinion the best way of describing his winning races. The thing that has impressed me the most has been his attitude in both those wins, the second of which when beating a small but select field in a Grade 3 at Thurles, stretching away impressively enough in the end giving the impression there was any amount left to come, stepping up in trip and stiff finish looking tailor-made for him.
I’m also taking a flyer on another Willie Mullins inmate, with Katie Walsh retaining the ride on extremely lightly raced Bravissimo , who gave an extremely good impression when landing his maiden back on Boxing Day, with a fair yard stick in Champagne Classic well beaten back in 3rd that day. From that fairly facile maiden win connections thought Bravissimo worthy of being pitched into a much deeper contest Lto, the jump to Grade 1 competition a little too much at that stage in his fledgling career, with Katie giving him a sympathetic ride when his chance had gone. He has been allotted a mark of 136, which may be ok given his unexposed profile, but is one of the most intriguing contenders in the line up given the plethora of ammunition connections could have gone to war with in this particular race. I’m sure he will be another that will benefit from an end to end gallop and could improve significantly for the step up in trip, 40-1 too tempting not to have a wager.
GL if you have a dabble.
I have modus, hargram in this race at 20/1 and 33/1 respectively
good luck all
good luck all
Good luck robster
PS Don't go smaller EW just cuz it's a big price imo, you'll only be annoyed if it goes and wins!
PS Don't go smaller EW just cuz it's a big price imo, you'll only be annoyed if it goes and wins!
Gerorge, as a rule of thumb whatever I bet E.W. on my main fancy I half on my saver.... I'll be happy with a place at 40's (now bloody 50's) never mind the win
) never mind the win
This is the race of the day for me, ultra competitive.
I'm really interested to see how Tin Soldier travels in the race today, thought he might find it a bit sharp on this ground. If he qualified for the pertemps, I probably would have played him because I like his mark.
All the best Rob.
I'm really interested to see how Tin Soldier travels in the race today, thought he might find it a bit sharp on this ground. If he qualified for the pertemps, I probably would have played him because I like his mark.
All the best Rob.
Totally see your point re travelling Ryan, but just think he'll be one of those horses that keeps on finding from the foot of the hill and could be staying on a well as anything given the mark and weight he's carrying. GL
Good luck Robster, not keen on the race but have had a place bet on Hawk High,, runs like a stayer in the making, and a decent price available, not expecting much but could make the frame if better over this trip.?
Bit of a mad dash for me today so unable to give my usual write up and analysis....off to Hexham to take in their 7 race card and watch the action unfold at Cheltenham in a bit off atmosphere...
Any how I'm backing Un Ace 33-1 ew 5places 16.10, plainly been laid out for this for some time now...9yrold with only 10st+ and within the 135-140 bha rating ....he'll do for me..... GL if your having a dabble
Any how I'm backing Un Ace 33-1 ew 5places 16.10, plainly been laid out for this for some time now...9yrold with only 10st+ and within the 135-140 bha rating ....he'll do for me..... GL if your having a dabble
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