My Cheltenham thoughts....

Good evening all, 

       Haven’t been around in a posting capacity for some time; however I’ve been looking forward to this week( as I’m sure plenty others have) for months now.  I’ve taken the week off work to watch it on the TV, but maybe on Thursday I will catch it on Hexham’s big screen as I’ve made arrangements to go up with family. I will only be backing in the handicaps and will post some of my thoughts and reasoning as the week goes on in this thread, some selections fairly obvious and some slightly more obscure.  My record over these 4 days is not exactly brilliant, but on the odd occasion I have shown a fair enough profit and hopefully I can do so this year.  I’m not guaranteeing you will make money or be richer if you follow in, but win lose or draw I’ll simply be happy watching a great four days of sport........

Day 1. E.W. bet Holywell 14.50 11-1 generally BOG, 5places.......

.........Holywell seems to have a real penchant for the Cheltenham festival, during middle March something seems to spark within him, allowing him to take his form to another level completely. Having won the Pertemp’s Final in 2013 off a mark of 140 he landed this race as a novice in 2014 off 145, the following season improved to make the frame in a Gold Cup. That day he went off a quietly fancied 8-1 shot, a performance easily in the mid 160’s. Since that momentous run in the Gold Cup things have not looked to go to plan, with his only other piece of worthwhile form subsequently being when runner up in this race last year off a mark of 153.

There seems to have  been much talk about the form of Jonjo O’Neill throughout the season, but normally like a few other of his peer group can often be relied upon to ready a few for the festival,  no doubt  his season may become much more clearer as this week unfolds . It goes without saying that on this seasons performances Holywell can’t possibly win tomorrow’s renewal, but having started his current season off 156 I’d be of the opinion connections would have had tomorrow’s race pencilled in right from the outset, and by finishing most of this seasons races off when his chance had gone has allowed the handicapper to issue the horse with some much needed respite, getting into the race easily below the 155 rating cut off on what looks a handy enough looking mark.  Tomorrow he contests the race off 148, 3lb higher than when winning in 2014 and 5lb lower than when runner up last year, that performance ironically also following a fairly low key season from his 3 previous chase outings.  Holywell looks simply one of those old fashion spring campaigners, with some top performances in the book coming around this time of year.  Lifetime form from the last two weeks in February through to the first week in April reads 1-1-2-1-1-1-1-4-2. The only time he finished unplaced was that magnificent 4th in the Gold Cup, with plenty of the form in that sequence deriving from some well contested graded affairs.

Richie McLernon resumes the partnership tomorrow and has ridden the horse in all of his festival appointments to date, with his overall record when riding fairly solid, particularly in spring. I’m a big fan of horses that seem to get to this festival year after year, the majority of which run with extreme credit, If connections have got him sweetened up to anywhere near the top of his ability he’d be thrown in off 148 tomorrow and at 11-1 in my opinion he’s worth a few quid E.W. with those that are giving the concession of 5places .

Good Luck if you have a dabble.