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Phil Smith getting his comeuppance
Phil Smith getting his comeuppance
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In fact last year only 3 houses carrying 11 stone or over managed to even finished the race
5 of the last 8 winners have carried 11 stone or higher |
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Blimey, thought we'd seen the last of the 11st barrier debate....despite some flat earthers continuing to fight the good fight
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brigust you seem quite upset although you only really appear to have one example to support your anger and Rashaan hasn't run off the mark you're moaning about. So how do you know it's wrong? (that's rhetorical btw - you don't, cheers)
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Thought the worst admission from Smith and that went unchallenged from Chapman was that he started compressing the weights at the behest of Charles Barnett and someone else who wanted to give the better quality horses a better chance of winning. Thought the idea of handicapping was to give every horse an equal chance.
Should one or two people be dictating how a sport is run (or in this case a race) like that, it's a bit like the French imposing a 4lb weight allowance for females because Rothschild wants one. Don't know why the weights even have to be announced 2 months prior to the race, just state all horses will run off the official rating at the time of the race, sounds fairer all round to me. |
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Don't know why the weights even have to be announced 2 months prior to the race, just state all horses will run off the official rating at the time of the race, sounds fairer all round to me.
Cos then everybody would do what the Irish do and run them in novice hurdles etc when qualified.......... |
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if the crafty butcher has been trying for his life ,theres no problem then he,s not good enough for the chelt handicaps,people close to the horse or punters seem to think he should be given a mark to get in the handicaps without showing his hand,which tends to suggest they think theres lots more to come
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If his arguments for 'compressing the weights' were credible, he'd surely be doing the same for the Welsh, Scottish, and Midland Nationals.
And if his primary concrn was fairness, he'd be campaigning to change the no penalties rule, since there's invariably one runner in the National that is very leniently treated having won after the weights were published. The Last Samurai a year ago ran off a mark 12lbs below his then official rating - so you have the ridiculous situation that the horse ran off 149 in the National, but would have been on 161 in the 3M handicap chase run one hour before the big race. |
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He was campaigning, TA, as were others in Holborn. It got derailed by a small group of people that can't see past the end of their own self-serving noses.
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TH I suggest you look at the form of the 4th horse My Manikineko, and not through Apples Jade the 2nd horse and Petit Mouchoir the 3rd horse. On My Makeniko's previous running through Sternrubin and subsequent running through Superb Story the placed horses at Down Royal ran around 14lbs below their form.
Added to that Apples Jade and Petit Mouchoir have now run 6 times since this race winning three Grade 1's (should have been four) a second in a Grade one and a fall in a Grade 1. Clearly showing they are far superior to anything Rashaan had shown. Added to that this was at least Rashaan's 4th race this season as it was My Makeniko's and they were fully fit whereas it was Apple Jade's first run since April and Petit Mouchoir's first run since April. The handicapper should ignore the unfit horses who ran well below their ratings and rate the race through the 1st and 4th horses who were both fully fit and clearly ran almost exactly to their ratings. |
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Yes, I note that horse, far from being exposed, has subsequently improved by bustling up another who's touted as a champion Hurdle prospect. I also note the trainer of Rashaan (Irish 139) is happy to take on Jezki (Irish 167) on Saturday at Gowran, brigust. In addition, Rashaan is giving Jezki 8lbs.
So that's roughly 35lbs wrong. You gotta love the Irish. In a minute they'll be telling us Don Poli has been shafted being asked to give 2lbs to the Last Sumuri  Oh..hang on  |
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Phil Smith shouldn't be publicly barracked by the bully that is Michael OLeary. Look at his childish tantrum leading to the split with Willie Mullins and this shows that he's clearly a man who has to get his own way.
I didn't hear any complaints about last year's handicapping. Let him take all his horses out and plod round Clonmel and the like, the race is far bigger than this egotistical maniac. |
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I would have thought they hoped the race would cut up further TH still they should pick up some prize money and you never know. Stranger things have happened.
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Somerset Sam • February 17, 2017 2:55 PM GMT
Phil Smith shouldn't be publicly barracked by the bully that is Michael OLeary I agree SS, the tone had a pretty nasty element to it from my point of view it is 1 thing expressing your displeasure at the hcap marks your horses have, it is quite another speaking out in the media and being an utter fkin w@nker to somebody who is just doing their job |
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Sure - I'd never have a pop at anyone for having a go. It's an orse race not a maths equation.
But when you've properly shot yer mouth off over a rating of 154, it seems a little strange to then ask your horse to run to mark of 175 - seemingly without a care in the world. |
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Agree Sam and WSB. Especially when the w@nker has little or no clue about the subject he's debating.
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Great man Micheal O'Leary, almost single handedly brought air fares to a third of the price they were 30 years ago.
Forget the National,joke race nowadays anyway. |
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No mention of the fact that top Irish jumps horses through the 00s were no longer sold to be trained in the UK.
Which explains both the dominance of Irish jumps horses in the UK and the request by UK trainers for Phil Smith to not accept Irish ratings and create his own. It also explains away Phils 'justification' based on historical results that he suffers from no bias against the Irish. |
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Quite the opposite TH. Why run in a handicap off a mark you think is wrong when you can pick up prize money even if you don't win. Makes sense to me.
And I suggest O'Leary knows exactly what he is talking about. I'm fed up with the cosy, cosy incestuous way racing is run anyway. You cannot criticise trainers or jockeys on television and everything is so lovely, lovely. I want people, especially well respected and connected people, who think the handicapper is wrong to speak up, I want similar people who think jockeys and trainers are wrong to speak up. Sometimes we need an answer instead we are treated like mushrooms and it is all swept under the carpet. Phil Smith is like a kid anyway. He will never achieve what O'Leary has. |
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what spend millions on horselesh to have 17 in 30,grand handicaps hoping one wins
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Is running horses in novice hurdles much of a factor these days spyker? How many do you think would rum in hurdles between now and the National if the weights came out the week of the race?
In contrast you need a high rating to get a run and it would encourage running at Cheltenham etc to get your rating up. How daft is it that a trial is run every year at Haydock a few days after the weights come out rather than before? Why should an odd horse like The Last Samuri be greatly favoured like last year to the detriment of the rest? |
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I have never rated Phil Smith alaways thought he was a guesser and not up to the job.....Finally being exposed at long last.
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with a lot of these irish horses all you can do is guess,would love to know what phil smith really thinks about irish racing
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I always thought he contradicts himself to often....And then Bullsh1ts his way out of trouble.
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Phil Smith may not be prefect, but I wouldn't take too much notice of Mr O'Leary. From his point of view (and to a lesser extent Rich Ricci), they have the divine right to win all of the valuable races in Ireland and as many of those in England as they want to run in. At least JP is a sportsman who accepts defeat gracefully.
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The rest of the above is just OTT dramatics which suggests that you have a touch of the delusional egomaniac about you and are drunk.
I'm not a drinker dunc, just a tendency toward verbosity on occasion ! Apologies this has rankled you so, I did qualify it with "a touch" guv. Any defense for (imo) the absurd rating of 132 Smith has allotted for said Mullins horse ? Would be interesting to hear others opinions as its contrast to Rashaan's harsh treatment is so striking. As already mentioned it's apparent to most that Mr Smith just made a bit of a rick ignoring the proximity of the Nash beast, which is somewhat understandable, tho I'd respect him more if he'd have accepted he'd got it wrong rather than going on the offensive trying to justify his opinion. |
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132 is fair enough, GB chase mark not always higher than Irish chase mark and a 5 pound rise for a 3 and a half length defeat in a big handicap isn't exactly unusual. Remember the horse already had an English rating before that race. And if they want to get into Cheltenham just run the bloody thing, if you really think he's so well handicapped off 132 it should be no problem going to England to win one and get a weight rise. Plenty of bad class 3 races. With Rashaan Smith was clear, they treat these small field conditions races as being a little falsely run so a horse that finishes close up behind is disregarded, fact is he gave 2 pounds and a beating to a horse now rated 153, and a level weights beating to a horse now rated 162. It's one thing saying 1 horse badly needed the run, quite another to say 2 horses badly needed it especially when they were right back to form within 3 weeks. Handicappers are always meant to err on the side of caution with their ratings, he does the same with all the English horses too. It's the Irish rating that's laughable.
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That is typical of Smith CC. In another interview he said when a lower rated horse runs close to a highly rated horse he downgrades the race. He wants to make his mind up. The fact that a lowly rated horse gets close to a highly rated horse is not that the lowly rated horse has improved substantially it is because the highly rated horse has underperformed. Even more so if the lowly rated horse has a history to compare with. As the horse is Rashaan's race definitely had.
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And that also applies if it is two highly rated horses the race should be downgraded.
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I would take the decision to run Rashaan in a Grade 3 tomorrow as being a decision based on connections thinking the horse can't win in handicaps even off his Irish mark and therefore resigning themselves to pot hunting for place money instead.
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Rashaan has predominately been campaigned in condition and graded hurdles. So his next entry is in line with his typical profile. Everyone in racing is aware that running in level weight races risks getting landed with an inflated handicap mark, that's exactly why the field sizes tend to be a fraction of handicap races. It's likely it was flattered to some extent, but connections accepted the risk (to the mark) of running in the race. However, it looks like he may be much more suited by the small field hurdles in any case.
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My issue is that it must be very frustrating for connections, who I imagine were confident of being rated 6 or 7lbs higher, exactly because of this tendency to 'err on the side of cation'. Its all very well saying run him over in the UK, if you're so well in but they're not machines and that may not be how they wanted to campaign the beast.
The propensity from Smith to 'read between the lines' with Elliot horses like Campeador last year(correctly so as it happened)and put them on ratings miles in advance of what they've actually shown on the racecourse is so marked, that it's odd to me that in this case he's suddenly decided to go in an entirely different direction. He's ostensibly taken one absolute stinker on its only run for Gary Moore from 127 and gone from there, ignoring all the other reams of evidence that the horse has shown, that he's much better than that. He's barely a year removed from performing well off 132 in Class C hcap hurdle for a trainer who has been struggling mightily for years, now having produced a career best over fences under the care of probably the best trainer around, he's sticking rigidly to that rating, the inconsistency is staggering to me. Irish trainers would want to be Nostradamus to work out what he's going to give them ! I would say both hcappers produce plenty of 'laughable'ratings (Ballyandys 135 was pretty funny) but I at least feel I know what criteria the Irish lads are working from. |
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CustomCut your 3 week point is irrelevant not knowing how fit these beaten horses were. They weren't beaten far and the races they went on to win were not great races. It wasn't that long ago since Treve was beaten in the Prix Vermielle after a layoff then 3 weeks later bolted up in the Arc.
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I was always under the impression that the differences between UK & Irish marks was due to a difference in handicapping theory - in Ireland they seem to try and rate the actual performance whereas there's a lot more interpretation of how easy a horse might have won in UK.
I personally prefer the Irish method, as there's enough guesswork in working out the value of form in the first place without adding another layer of more speculative guesses. But if I were an owner I'd probably prefer the UK method - the vast majority of owners dont have horses that run up sequences, and whacking the easy winners up loads stops them dominating the race (and markets) and actually gives more owners a chance. |
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I was always under the impression that the differences between UK & Irish marks was due to a difference in handicapping theory - in Ireland they seem to try and rate the actual performance whereas there's a lot more interpretation of how easy a horse might have won in UK.
I personally prefer the Irish method, as there's enough guesswork in working out the value of form in the first place without adding another layer of more speculative guesses. But if I were an owner I'd probably prefer the UK method - the vast majority of owners dont have horses that run up sequences, and whacking the easy winners up loads stops them dominating the race (and markets) and actually gives more owners a chance. |
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I was always under the impression that the differences between UK & Irish marks was due to a difference in handicapping theory - in Ireland they seem to try and rate the actual performance whereas there's a lot more interpretation of how easy a horse might have won in UK.
I personally prefer the Irish method, as there's enough guesswork in working out the value of form in the first place without adding another layer of more speculative guesses. But if I were an owner I'd probably prefer the UK method - the vast majority of owners dont have horses that run up sequences, and whacking the easy winners up loads stops them dominating the race (and markets) and actually gives more owners a chance. |
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Apols for 3x posting - slow internet
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All designed to extract as much cash from the UK betting public's pockets as possible, db. Including the arbitrary framing of the GN weights.
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Anyone care to put a number on Rashaan today?
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Adamski 17 feb 17.24 "how daft the National weights are made a couple of days before a major National trial?
Spot on,it really beggars belief. 147 Rashaan? giving 8lb to a 147 horse and beaten just over 5L, personally wouldn't read too much into the proximity of Jezki there. |