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http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/2/10769807/don-poli-doubtful-to-run-in-the-randox-health-grand-national-at-aintree
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This is one of the most ridiculous statements I've ever read from a trainer. He's retired a fit horse because of anticipated "unfair treatment". What would he think was fair, dropping him a few pounds to make sure he wins easier next time? Returning national winners are frequently places, suggesting they are treated very fairly. OK, not many win it again, but that SHOULD be difficult.
And as for Don Poli, he looks well handicapped to me. He's giving 2lbs to The Last Samuri ffs, if he'd run against Don Poli & Co last Sunday he wouldn't have seen which way they went. Don Poli is a grade one horse and any grade one horse off 163 is pretty fairly treated. Add that to the fact that he's made for the national, and should improve a ton for the trip and fences, and they would be mad not to run. I don't think this is over, trainer v owner battle looming. |
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hmm i thought the horse RTW was retired because of an injury.
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Not a current one. They mentioned previous injuries when they retired him.
Plenty of races to be won with him imo if they could keep him sound. Perhaps they are plottng him up for next year's foxunters? |
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Not to mention that compressing the handicap necessarily means most horses will end up with more weight than would otherwise have been the case.
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It is enjoyable seeing boofhead showing his ignorance when trying to trip up someone who's forgotten more about racing and handicapping than fathead will ever know. At least nowadays we're spared him on ATR on Saturdays.
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unfortunately he turns it into a battle of egos, in what should be a very interesting program
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How embarrassing is Chapman? No wonder Smith likes appearing with him, Chapman makes him look like a genius.
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Shame we can't have a decent host to properly take him to task without acting the buffoon every couple of minutes to leave him off the hook.
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I only saw the last 10 minutes but I was embarrassed by Chapman's antics. I agree that Phil Smith should be asked to explain apparent anomalies but to keep interrupting, making wild accusations not allowing him to make a rational argument was awful. I didn't expect to ever dislike a racing presenter more than J. McCririck but that went close. Is ATR financed by the Irish racing Industry? That is the only way to explain the line they take these days.
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There are few more ridiculous things in racing than the hype over the Grand National weights and Phil Smith having carte blanche to give the horses completely arbitrary marks for one race a year.
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One ridiculous thing was unveiling the weights in the evening -- planned by someone with no idea about newspaper deadlines.
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get a grip
chappers and smith is like parry and brazil on talksport years ago,good guy,bad guy act, its not meant to be serious chapman says every week although we have some fun he respects the job smith and the other handicappers do |
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Yes, this should be about serious discussion but it is no more than the equivalent of Punch and Judy. Pathetic stuff.
If Chapman really wanted to make things uncomfortable for Smith he would actually get him to explain that 172 rating for Thistlecrack. |
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Irish handicapper put Don Poli upto 167 apparently, so 4lb well-in in GN and not going to run cos unfairly treated
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Irish handicapper didn't put Don Poli up. Just been on HRI website and still on 161
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Agree with others, it has potentially the makings of a great show but as usual we get a dumbed down version
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The comments in this article are from Eddie O'Leary, the brother of Michael. Yes he is the racing manager but how much of this is tribal politico>? He still sounds bitter about the EU referendum.
"A handicapper is meant to be impartial. What I'd call the National now is a pre-Brexit, post-Brexit handicap.>>" How can Brexit get a mention in this? |
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cheers, davieboy...some misinfo to that effect on ATR and Twitter then
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Brexit is a polite way of alleging Phil Smith has overburdened the Irish horses.
Which in a sense he has to in order to make it a level playing field with the home-based horses he has been overrating for years. ATR should have some sort of programme to discuss it. When does Chapman go on holiday? |
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There is a disparity between the UK and Irish official levels. If the Irish horses were allowed to run off their home marks then there would be a disproportionate number of Irish trained handicap winners in the UK.
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fook me theyve had the discussion
chappers accused smith of battering irish horses to get a uk winner after irish horses won 6 out of 9,smith said they dont even look at their irish mark,whats left to discuss other than calling smith a liar,the same smith this thread says forgotten more than chappers will ever no, as smith says uk horses are running races now on heavy ground to get marks to get in at chelt,whilst irish rainers are pishing about in hurdles non events in ireland hoping smith gives them a mark to get in at chelt,as he says complaining their to high for the national and to low to get in at chelt,as smith said if mullins thinks the crafty butcher should be on a mark to get in at chelt, run it in a race to prove it before the chelt weights come out |
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Surely the goal should be for their ratings to be done on the same scale so we can have ratings that mean something.
If Phil and his team perhaps hadn't let their scales slip so badly in the last few years trying to create artifical champions then then perhaps we would have and there would be no need for these discussions. |
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complaining the're too high for the national and too low to get in at chelt,as smith said if mullins thinks the crafty butcher should be on a mark to get in at chelt, run it in a race to prove it before the chelt weights come out
As Phil Smith said a couple of years back, to qualify for Cheltenham, you need to run at least one race with the handbrake off. |
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Another thing to consider is that maybe british racing isn't as strong as it likes to think it is?
Maybe the Irish have better jockeys and better trainers? Maybe all the uncompetitive dross that is constantly served up by the BHA is proving to the detriment of the sport? |
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I don't agree with all of Smith's methods but he gets results. He has to deal with vast amounts of non triers and a grossly incompetent handicapper in Ireland. Absolutely right that he comes up with his own marks. There are a couple of dodgy marks handed out by him (and he does unfairly single out Elliott) but people having a go at him for Rashaan's and The Crafty Butcher's ratings are laughable and he gave a very good defense of both of those ratings.
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Surely the goal should be for their ratings to be done on the same scale so we can have ratings that mean something.
If Phil and his team perhaps hadn't let their scales slip so badly in the last few years trying to create artifical champions then then perhaps we would have and there would be no need for these discussions. A few years ago, there was a great panic about slippage -- handicap marks overall gradually slipping downwards. Smith fixed that but at the cost of overrating everything, and more importantly of losing any pretence that there was a constant objective rating so we can compare Kauto Star with Desert Orchid, say. As you say, if the British and Irish horses were isolated -- or if the good horses were equally distributed -- it would not matter as much but as they meet at Cheltenham, the Irish need to be adjusted up. Of course, if Rich Ricci and the rest moved their strings to England, then the problem would reverse itself and the Irish would need to have their marks reduced. But we are where we are. |
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Gallant Oscar rated 146 in Ireland, generously downgraded by Smith to 143 making it doubtful he will get in
 More than one way to skin an Irish cat! |
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Four years ago Smith accused his older handicappers for overrating Dancing Brave then recalibrated everything down because it fitted in with what he thought. He thought Frankel was better than Dancing Brave so he changed to system to prove it when the horse couldn't prove it on the track. Handicapping is not what you think, it is a set of rules. He would have changed the referendum if it didn't agree with what he thought. Then two years ago he appealed to trainers to help him with his handicapping ffs.
In my opinion, Smith is the Clattenburg of horse racing. He thinks he is bigger and more important than the sport. He has a system laid down for his colleagues to use and follow, now they are all getting into the method of rating by public opinion and what you see, not what the facts on the ground say. The fact is he doesn't trust the system he is working with and he has this fanciful idea that he can guess how much better a horse is than the result gives him. And just like with Rashaan he has proved he is clueless. In Rashaan's race at Down Royal he rated him through the 2nd and the 3rd who were higher rated and were both having their first run of the season. They clearly never ran to their ratings. Had he rated through the 4th horse who finished close up and who had run and was fit he wouldn't have given him the weight he did. It was an absolutely clueless decision. |
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Ramruma • February 16, 2017 1:27 PM GMT
One ridiculous thing was unveiling the weights in the evening -- planned by someone with no idea about newspaper deadlines.  look at the date next to your name, news is 24/7 now in your hand, newspapers almost obsolete |
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Don Poli is favourite but apparently they've been unfairly treated?! seems like the handicapper did a decent job
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The BHB made a very reasonable defence I though. 10% of English runners in England win handicaps, 11% of Irish runners in England do. As they reasonably pointed out, the Irish % is entitled to be a bit higher as they are unlikely to run a no-hoper just for experience, but it does suggest the handicapping is very fair.
Conversely, I can't remember the last time an English trained horse won a major Irish handicap. |
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In any case Mr O'leary, 11-7 for Don Poli seems fair to me. Certainly fairer than charging a £40 debit card charge that wasn't mentioned until the end of the checkout.
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The Crafty Butcher has been trying for its life every time he's run this season, he finished second in one of the most fiercely competitive hcap chases run last year so I can't understand what 1st Time Poster is on about above.
I can thoroughly understand connections frustration at the absolute randomness of his UK mark when other thoroughly exposed Irish horses at all levels routinely get 5-8 lbs tacked on to their Irish rating. Perhaps after two hard races and a fall over hurdles they planned to give him a break until March under the assumption Mr Smith would show an iota of consistency and give him a mark in the high 130's ? The Clattenburg analogy is spot on, Smith seems to have a touch of the delusional egomaniac about him, convinced he's cleverer than everybody else and drunk on his absolute power. |
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Smith seems to have a touch of the delusional egomaniac about him, convinced he's cleverer than everybody else and drunk on his absolute power.
I wouldnt be Smith's biggest fan but if you got a hundred people to handicap a thousand horses, everyone would come up with different ratings and so you could accuse everyone of being 'convinced he's cleverer than everybody else'. The rest of the above is just OTT dramatics which suggests that you have a touch of the delusional egomaniac about you and are drunk. |
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BarryM 17 Feb 17 00:51
Conversely, I can't remember the last time an English trained horse won a major Irish handicap Depends what you mean by major..Irish Cavalier, Perfect Pasture, Dream Walker and New Bidder all won £40K+ races in 2016. Looks like GB horses in all Irish hcps (Flat/Jumps) have operated at an 8.5% SR in the last 3 yrs, slightly above the SR of 8% for the home-trained runners (bigger fields over there, so overall SR lower than GB) |
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michael o leary, dreadful bloke.
all his trainers must tiptoe around him, worried they'll offend and be the next for the sack. |
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Smith seems to have a touch of the delusional egomaniac about him, convinced he's cleverer than everybody else and drunk on his absolute power.
I could not agree more with that comment. I have been banging on about the BHA handicapping, and in particular Gardner-Hill and Phil Smith, for years. Pity the media haven't the guts or the nouse to look deeper into it. Sadly O'Leary isn't the best liked but he speaks his mind and knows the time of day. Lets face it the handicapper is wrong almost all of the time otherwise the races would all finish in a line but that is not the point. More recently the Rashaan rating was just plain wrong and for Smith to defend it was staggering. He should have just accepted it and revised it. That would have shown the mark of the man just as agreeing with it has done. |
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17 of the top 40 are either owned by Michael O'Leary or JP. I can understand why they are causing a rumpus over the weights. Very few horses can carry over 11st to win the national, Many Clouds was an exceptional horse. In fact last year only 3 houses carrying 11 stone or over managed to even finished the race.
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heavens opened last G.N. and distorted the whole race ..???
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