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Stick99
27 Jan 17 20:29
Joined:
Date Joined: 13 Jan 12
| Topic/replies: 17 | Blogger: Stick99's blog
J P McManus runs two in the Juvenile Hurdle, Charli Parcs and Defi Du Seuil best priced 8/11 and 6/4 respectively with 14/1 bar.

Looking on the Racing Post..
Charli Parcs and Defi Du Seuil, principals for the JCB Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March, have been declared to clash in the Grade 2 trial on Saturday's card, which is registered as the Finesse.

JP McManus owns the pair and his racing manager Frank Berry said on Friday morning: "At the moment Charli Parcs is a definite runner. Defi would only run if the ground becomes very heavy, in which case it's possible Charli Parcs wouldn't run. Nothing is set in stone, though."


This is where the maths help is needed, and my understanding on the rule 4...

It looks very likely only one will run in which case the other will become a heavy favourite (1/5 or shorter). Is it more profitable to bet on both now, then IF one become a non runner, take the rule 4 hit on the horse that remains (likely to be 40p or 60p in the £ depending on the horse) and have the stake returned.
Pause Switch to Standard View SAT 12:00 CHELTENHAM - RULE 4 - MATHS...
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Report SkintofGreatYarmouth January 27, 2017 8:42 PM GMT
On here,

Charli Parcs 1.91

Defi Du Seuil 2.40

Bar 24.0
Report s.kenbo January 27, 2017 9:06 PM GMT
8/11 with a 40p rule four pays 1.44

6/4 with a 60p rule pays 1.60

So if you think the remaining horse could go off at 1/5, then the rule 4 would be well worth it either way.
Report cardifffc January 27, 2017 9:09 PM GMT
what if they both run and one of the outsiders beat both of them
Report s.kenbo January 27, 2017 9:10 PM GMT
Then you lose twice.
Report s.kenbo January 27, 2017 9:11 PM GMT
Or lay off your lesser fancy.
Report ladycarla January 27, 2017 9:14 PM GMT
Rule 4 always favours the punter even though most of them don't believe it!!
Report carrot1960 January 27, 2017 10:02 PM GMT
NOT ON HERE
Report cricketnut2 January 27, 2017 10:35 PM GMT
This meeting has never been a 9 race meeting, which races have been added, obviously not the graded races. The X Country race is one of them.
Report wondersobright January 28, 2017 11:19 AM GMT
normally 7 race card

extra races...

x country from november meeting (hard ground)
clarence house from ascot (frost)
Report wondersobright January 28, 2017 11:20 AM GMT
looks like both CP and DDS will run which is surprising
Report wondersobright January 28, 2017 11:34 AM GMT
CP a NR
Report ph. January 28, 2017 11:38 AM GMT
well i hope u played, didnt think they'd clash in a non championship ace and 27 mins before the off......... F@@@ the punting public.
Report Stick99 January 28, 2017 6:35 PM GMT
for small money, paid 1.6 on a 1.2 shot
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