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im still at a loss to understand the 1.01 return yesterday ,having read betfairs rules am I right to say that any reduction is made at the traded price in this case 2.62 a reduction of 67.1 % lowers this to 1.758 can anyone explain how this is further reduced to 1.01
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thurnscoe thunder 30 Nov 16 14:55
You were lucky to get 1.01
Last price pre race was around 2.6, there was a 67.1% reduction factor
2.6 * 32.9% leaves you with 0.8554 including your stake.
So it was rounded up because it would have been negative
You were lucky to get 1.01
Last price pre race was around 2.6, there was a 67.1% reduction factor
2.6 * 32.9% leaves you with 0.8554 including your stake.
So it was rounded up because it would have been negative
highlights the flaws in betfairs model i guess and why it suits layers rather than backers
the flaw is should do the reduction factor on the price without the stake
correct delta , the conclusion ive come to (and its taken me a long while) is that to back anything on betfair exchange you should wait until as near the off as possible
Overall, the model doesn't favour layers over backers. It is generally a fair model. The exception is with short price horses and in this case Miss Maiden Over was obviously an extremely short price with the favourite withdrawn. It was exacerbated by the favourite being a slight drifter compared to it's reduction factor whilst Miss Maiden Over was well backed. I'm not sure what the way forward is for these extreme cases but in most cases it works pretty well.
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