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bobca442
01 Dec 16 10:41
Joined:
Date Joined: 21 Oct 10
| Topic/replies: 13 | Blogger: bobca442's blog
im still at a loss to understand the 1.01 return yesterday ,having read betfairs rules am I right to say that any reduction is made at the traded price in this case 2.62  a reduction of 67.1 % lowers this to 1.758 can anyone explain how this is further reduced to 1.01
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Report ghostlygunner • December 1, 2016 10:49 AM GMT
1.01 return wtf Surprised
Report Deltâ • December 1, 2016 10:55 AM GMT
thurnscoe thunder 30 Nov 16 14:55 
You were lucky to get 1.01
Last price pre race was around 2.6, there was a 67.1% reduction factor
2.6 * 32.9% leaves you with 0.8554 including your stake.
So it was rounded up because it would have been negative
Report ghostlygunner • December 1, 2016 12:05 PM GMT
highlights the flaws in betfairs model i guess and why it suits layers rather than backers
Report Deltâ • December 1, 2016 12:18 PM GMT
the flaw is should do the reduction factor on the price without the stake
Report ghostlygunner • December 1, 2016 1:35 PM GMT
correct delta , the conclusion ive come to (and its taken me a long while) is that to back anything on betfair exchange you should wait until as near the off as possible
Report lcredd • December 1, 2016 1:39 PM GMT
1.01 is an absolute shambles tbh.
Report asparagus • December 1, 2016 1:49 PM GMT
Overall, the model doesn't favour layers over backers. It is generally a fair model. The exception is with short price horses and in this case Miss Maiden Over was obviously an extremely short price with the favourite withdrawn. It was exacerbated by the favourite being a slight drifter compared to it's reduction factor whilst Miss Maiden Over was well backed. I'm not sure what the way forward is for these extreme cases but in most cases it works pretty well.
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