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On P4 of today's Racing Post Richard Birch's headline to his discussion of the Rockfel goes 'Fair Eva out to bounce back from York defeat'
He continues ' (FE)..won her first two starts in scintillating fashion before a SHOCK DEFEAT when ONLY third at odds of 4/11 to Queen Kindly..'
He thinks Fair Eva 'will put that BLIP firmly behind her'. (my emphasis.)
On the clock Fair Eva actually improved her rating by 1 lb (= 1 length) in the Lowther over her previous race (Juddmonte Stakes, Ascot) so there was no 'blip' and her defeat was no 'shock' in this quarter (I backed Roly Poly on value grounds). She ran a virtually identical race.
This super consistent filly will run another 70 today.
If she wins well it will be a pointer to her conquerors in tomorrow's Cheveley Park (where I have backed Roly Poly at 10/1).
V.
He continues ' (FE)..won her first two starts in scintillating fashion before a SHOCK DEFEAT when ONLY third at odds of 4/11 to Queen Kindly..'
He thinks Fair Eva 'will put that BLIP firmly behind her'. (my emphasis.)
On the clock Fair Eva actually improved her rating by 1 lb (= 1 length) in the Lowther over her previous race (Juddmonte Stakes, Ascot) so there was no 'blip' and her defeat was no 'shock' in this quarter (I backed Roly Poly on value grounds). She ran a virtually identical race.
This super consistent filly will run another 70 today.
If she wins well it will be a pointer to her conquerors in tomorrow's Cheveley Park (where I have backed Roly Poly at 10/1).
V.
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I didn't bet at York but York and ascot are 2 totally different tracks ...........she should win but you will go skint backing odds on shots
Roger Charlton did say after york that she was not quick enough and needed further although she won well at ascot over 6f in a fast time,she ran to form with nations alexander last time so the two who beat her last time may simply be better,a race for me to leave alone so we shall see.
foxy..........people do back these odds on shots but youre strike rate has to be extremely high........don't get me wrong I don't think its a lay but backing a 2yo filly at odds on this time of year is a recipe for disaster
Lady Aurelia and Fair Eva are both odds-on with only a slight variation in prices. Which one would you back (if forced) and represent better value given 'depth' of races? For me, Fair Eva as she will appreciate the distance and easier opposition, in my opinion.
Fair Eva will win, just punters need alls to put money down.
Fair Eva blew Kilmah and Nations Alexander away at York yet again but She found two others too quick for her on the proper good to firm going over 6f on a fast flat track.Today's race is difficult to fathom out,two Maiden winners 2nd n 3rd in.We have a French Listed filly in the race,a French Filly running well in England??Has it ever been done??..
nb Keep a very close eye on how Fair Eva handles the dip.
nb Keep a very close eye on how Fair Eva handles the dip.
Will be interesting to see the tactics stepping up from 6f to 7f on a track with a speed bias.
Trip beat her at York apparently as it was too short. Roger will probably say today's trip's too far - needs 6 and a half furlongs! Looks to my eye that she may be regressing.
Sep 23, 2016 -- 11:02AM, boingingbaggie wrote:
Birch has had £370 e/w at 8/11
Well,at least he got the place money
PA Racing @PAracing
Owner's rep Teddy Grimthorpe on Fair Eva: "A disappointing run. No excuses at the moment. She's ran well below the best of her form."
Owner's rep Teddy Grimthorpe on Fair Eva: "A disappointing run. No excuses at the moment. She's ran well below the best of her form."
teddy needs to send some of these potentially good horses to andrew balding rather than been loyal to ex jeremy tree staff who would struggle to train frogs to leap.
foxy, I'm kinda detecting here that you don't like Mr Charlton very much, any stories you wish to share with us? 
no stories george and you will very rarely see me or hear me blame jockeys,but i just dont rate this man he got lucky in his first season the derby and the french derby he is a massive under achiever for the bloodstock he gets.
Speaking of alleged "underachievers", I was expecting to see a list as long as your arm in that RP piece today, but no, just the three of them!
Page 12, foxy, the author was comparing numerical totals for this season so far and last season.
I would have thought O'Meara's lesser total compared to this time last year could be explained by his changing of yards.
I would have thought O'Meara's lesser total compared to this time last year could be explained by his changing of yards.
I've done the times for today's Newmarket card to try and interpret Fair Eva's performance.
It is quite clear that she has run far below her previous 2 runs. On form Miss Infinity should not have been able to get anywhere near her having run 5th to Stormy Clouds in the Sales race that opened the Thursday card at York. MI got a speed figure of 56 that day. She is officially rated 94. Fair Eva ran in the next race and recorded a speed figure of 70 and ran to a RPR of 107 compared with Miss Infinity's RPR of 84. Fair Eva only managed to beat MI by half a length in today's Rockfel.
Further, the Rockfel only rated the 5th best race of the day on time adjusted for class. (The best race on time for the class was the Silver Cambs.) So the French trained/Spanish owned Spainburg aint no Guineas winner. At York the Lowther (Queen Kindly winner) was the fastest of the day (adjusted). There's a gulf between the two.
Hopefully, it should be filed as 'too bad to be true' otherwise Queen Kindly and Roly Poly are looking pretty weak against the American filly. Its going to be firm tomorrow as the C of C says he is not going to water and there will be 30 mph winds. That will suit the War Front (Roly Poly) filly.
V.
It is quite clear that she has run far below her previous 2 runs. On form Miss Infinity should not have been able to get anywhere near her having run 5th to Stormy Clouds in the Sales race that opened the Thursday card at York. MI got a speed figure of 56 that day. She is officially rated 94. Fair Eva ran in the next race and recorded a speed figure of 70 and ran to a RPR of 107 compared with Miss Infinity's RPR of 84. Fair Eva only managed to beat MI by half a length in today's Rockfel.
Further, the Rockfel only rated the 5th best race of the day on time adjusted for class. (The best race on time for the class was the Silver Cambs.) So the French trained/Spanish owned Spainburg aint no Guineas winner. At York the Lowther (Queen Kindly winner) was the fastest of the day (adjusted). There's a gulf between the two.
Hopefully, it should be filed as 'too bad to be true' otherwise Queen Kindly and Roly Poly are looking pretty weak against the American filly. Its going to be firm tomorrow as the C of C says he is not going to water and there will be 30 mph winds. That will suit the War Front (Roly Poly) filly.
V.
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