Bankroll Management for Laying Syndicate - Professional Advice Needed

successful,but needs  approval from forum

Apologies if broken any forum rules for my posting.   Hopefully it will be approved and allowed to stay up.  Essentially I guess my main question is:   Is there a formula based on Average Price, Win % and/or ROI that validates the correct use of bankroll with the main priority of NOT losing bankroll or not gearing liability too high.   There are people way smarter than me on this forum and hoping to get some help from you guys.  Thanks again in advance

fishing thread

I've no idea. But am I right in thinking that you've risked about £130k (on your first win lay example)for a profit of nearly £1300? If so then that sounds a pretty poor return to a layman.

Stridingedge is one of the best people on here for this kind of thing. He'll give you a few pointers I'd have thought.

Good luck.

bsp you wont win.

Thanks S.kenbo.  yes you are correct.  pretty big outlays.  Biggest liability per selection in the win of 16.5% (that seems big to me).  Especially if stakes are increased it just gets a little scary.  Deadbrain59 - prices are taken at a fixed time before the off by a betting bot.  Sometimes prices better BSP, sometimes prices bigger than BSP

how did u manage to lay5 in a row yester....what where they

Your problem is not bigger stakes but that at most meetings you will need to lay at higher prices (on the same horses) to accommodate those stakes, and then your profit will disappear.

Poast yer bet cloon

long term laying into a 100% market at say 3% commission will result in a 97% return over time HTH

SELECT LAYS:
1325    Ayr    Flat    Third Order    5.9    Lost    9.5
1345    Newbury    Flat    Robin of Navan    5.6    Lost    9.5
1400    Ayr    Flat    Bletchley    3.95    Lost    9.5
1425    Catterick    Flat    Shabeeh    3.45    Lost    9.5
1455    Listowel    NH    Sir Vincent    13.5    Lost    9.5
1500    Catterick    Flat    Law Power    7.4    Won    -64
1515    Newmarket    Flat    G K Chesterton    4    Lost    9.5
1530    Listowel    NH    Clonalig House    4.9    Lost    9.5
1535    Catterick    Flat    Apamurra    7.6    Lost    9.5
1605    Listowel    NH    Katie Do    7.4    Lost    9.5
1610    Catterick    Flat    O'Connors Girl    15.5    Lost    9.5
1620    Ayr    Flat    Flight Officer    6.8    Lost    9.5
1640    Listowel    NH    Not For You    3.7    Lost    9.5
1700    Newmarket    Flat    Talent To Amuse    14.5    Lost    9.5
1705    Newbury    Flat    Crystal Ocean    2.74    Lost    9.5
1710    Listowel    NH    Deans Road    2.56    Won    -15.6
1720    Catterick    Flat    Strong Force    3.85    Lost    9.5
1735    Newmarket    Flat    Jailawi    9.6    Lost    9.5
1740    Wolverhampton    Flat    Whispering Soul    9.8    Lost    9.5
1825    Catterick    Flat    Disclosure    7.6    Lost    9.5
1910    Wolverhampton    Flat    Spohisticated Air    5.7    Won    -47
2010    Wolverhampton    Flat    Royal Reef    15    Won    -140
2040    Wolverhampton    Flat    Luang Prabang    7.4    Won    -64
2110    Wolverhampton    Flat    Alsacienne    3.2    Won    -22

BINARY LAYS:
1545    Ayr    Flat    G Force    14    Lost    9.5
1545    Ayr    Flat    Growl    6.2    Lost    9.5
1655    Ayr    Flat    Glengarry    5.9    Lost    10
1655    Ayr    Flat    That is The Spirit    7.8    Lost    -68
1645    Catterick    Flat    Card High            0
1645    Catterick    Flat    Sherman McCoy    17.5    Lost    9.5
1755    Catterick    Flat    Napolean Solo    9.8    Lost    9.5
1755    Catterick    Flat    Coolcalmcollected    3.8    Lost    9.5
1415    Newbury    Flat    Harry Angel    4.5    Won    -35
1415    Newbury    Flat    Sutter Country    14    Lost    10
1405    Newmarket    Flat    Via Via    10.5    Lost    9.5
1405    Newmarket    Flat    Whozthecat    6    Lost    9.5
1440    Newmarket    Flat    Feed The Goater    7.4    Lost    9.5
1440    Newmarket    Flat    Il Piccolo Grande    8    Lost    9.5
1625    Newmarket    Flat    Menai    9.2    Lost    9.5
1625    Newmarket    Flat    Francisco    11    Lost    9.5
1810    Wolverhampton    Flat    Eland Ally    8.4    Lost    9.5
1810    Wolverhampton    Flat    Equal Point    13    Lost    9.5
1840    Wolverhampton    Flat    Control Centre    6.8    Won    -58
1840    Wolverhampton    Flat    King of Castilla    10.5    Lost    10

These are all of yesterdays selections.  As you can see....a horrible end to proceedings after a nice start

Big Boss....Do you mean 3% liability or 3% per bet....?

1645    Catterick    Flat    Card High            0

?

1655    Ayr    Flat    That is The Spirit    7.8    Lost    -68

?

''This is a lifestyle business so I wish you luck but won't be investing''

^ her name is Deborah ..

1645 - price too big for a lay Delta

1655 - Should say 'Won" - good spot!

Thanks Flukes

Judging from your selections I think your end up chasing and blowing the lot.My advice would be keep away from the live money especially on the A/W.

NorrisMcSquirter 18 Sep 16 15:16 
1645 - price too big for a lay Delta


With both systems, I lay in the win and place and up to odds of 17.5. 


it was 17.5/1

When the bet placed through the bot Delta it was bigger than 17.5 so the bet didn't place!

handtorofe - what you mean 'live' money?  late punts on horses?  A/W killed me last night as has the weather recently but still 'up' across both systems this month

told you

18.09.2016    1630    Plumpton    NH    Mr Bien    12.5    Lost    9.5    -427.1    6    Lost    9.5
18.09.2016    1630    Plumpton    NH    Do We Like Him    9.8    Lost    9.5    -417.6    4.6    Lost    9.5
18.09.2016    1700    Plumpton    NH    Austin Fryers    9.4    Lost    10    -407.6    3.95    Lost    10
18.09.2016    1700    Plumpton    NH    Osgood    9.8    Won    -88    -495.6    3.15    Won    -21.5
18.09.2016    1410    Uttoxeter    NH    Song of The Night    11    Lost    9.5    -486.1    2.86    Lost    9.5
18.09.2016    1410    Uttoxeter    NH    Better Days    9.2    Lost    9.5    -476.6    2.88    Lost    9.5
18.09.2016    1540    Uttoxeter    NH    Best Work    8.8    Lost    9.5    -467.1    3.7    Lost    10
18.09.2016    1540    Uttoxeter    NH    Moon Over Rio    12.5    Lost    9.5    -457.6    4    Won    -30
18.09.2016    1610    Uttoxeter    NH    Saint Charles    9.8    Lost    9.5    -448.1    2.98    Won    -19.8
18.09.2016    1610    Uttoxeter    NH    Off The Ground    5    Lost    9.5    -438.6    2.18    Lost    10
18.09.2016    1640    Uttoxeter    NH    Premier Rose    15    Lost    9.5    -429.1    4.1    Lost    9.5
18.09.2016    1640    Uttoxeter    NH    Cruise in Style    13    Lost    9.5    -419.6    3.7    Lost    9.5
18.09.2016    1710    Uttoxeter    NH    Lord Of Drums    6.59    Lost    9.5    -410.1    2.16    Lost    10
18.09.2016    1710    Uttoxeter    NH    Larkhall    6.8    Lost    9.5    -400.6    2.52    Won    -15.2

4.6% up on Binary lays today....

18.09.2016    1430    Plumton    NH    Royal Irish Hussar    3.1    Lost    9.5    -26    1.78    Won    -7.8    256.5
18.09.2016    1440    Uttoxeter    NH    Get Me Home Now    7.2    Lost    9.5    -16.5    2.1    Lost    9.5    266
18.09.2016    1450    Gowran Park    Flat    Rich History    3.1    Lost    9.5    -7    1.67    Lost    9.5    275.5
18.09.2016    1500    Plumpton    NH    Take A Bow    8.4    Won    -74    -81    3.5    Won    -25    250.5
18.09.2016    1520    Gowran Park    Flat    Laganore    7.2    Lost    9.5    -71.5    2.48    Won    -14.8    235.7
18.09.2016    1530    Plumpton    NH    Jim Dandy    1.96    Lost    9.5    -62    1.29    Lost    9.5    245.2
18.09.2016    1600    Plumpton    NH    Volcanic    4.9    Lost    9.5    -52.5    2.04    Lost    9.5    254.7
18.09.2016    1620    Gowran Park    Flat    Daydor    6.8    Lost    9.5    -43    2.74    Lost    9.5    264.2
18.09.2016    1720    Gowran Park    Flat    Highly Toxic    11.5    Lost    9.5    -33.5    2.78    Lost    9.5    273.7

Select Lays - jus over 1% up.  Small win better than a loss

If I am reading it correct and you are risking up to 16.5% of a bank on one bet that is way too high imo.

I agree with braindead over time you'll lose money laying at bsp.

Magic_Daps - yes you are correct.  Should I perhaps limit at say 10%.  So liability of 10% for bets over 11.  Do you guys think laying at liability is better than flat stakes?

1) if you have a head for hard sums, you should look at "fractional Kelly staking" which basically means you stake a percentage of your bankroll depending on both the price and the true probability of winning. Since you do not really know the true probabilities in a horse race, you deploy only a fraction of the calculated stake.

2) as suggested earlier, one problem with your massively increased bankroll is that you will have to lay the same bets at bigger prices, except perhaps at the very big meetings. If you are trying to take £1,000 out of a horse at 2.6 but there is only £300 queued at that price, you need to go bigger (which affects your profitability) or not get the full bet on (which affects your profit).

3) a sociological point. You are currently laying on behalf of your mates who have put in relatively small amounts. If it all goes pear shaped then you are in for a couple of years of ribbing and their kids will not get the new exploding phones for Christmas. If this chap with £50,000 loses the lot, will he be so understanding or will he put the frighteners on you and the missus to sell your car to reimburse him?

In short, it looks to me like you are getting out of your depth mathematically, financially and maybe even criminally.

the FCA would be very interested in your activities!

Thanks for the replies, openness and honesty guys.  Yes it possibly is a scary proposition having a big investor wanted to throw some cash at this.  However it has come as a recommendation from one of the my investors who has made nearly 60% ROI on his £1050 investment.  Not really sure how to proceed now.  I believe I have a very good system for identifying losers but 'past success is no predictor of future success eh?'   Ramtuma - I'll try and get my head around Kelly and Gamblers Ruin etc.

Delta has a point about the FCA.

And HMRC if you are not paying income tax (since you appear to be running this as a business).

Delta's point is very important ...if you're accepting deposits from investors without a licence the FCA will come down on you like a ton of bricks.

If the so-called "big investor" is a forumite he may be reconsidering. If he's not could you please send him this way as I have a fool-proof stop-at-a-winner system and last time I checked the longest losing run required a bank of only £49,000.

Hey, Norris, where`s your opening post gone to? I read it at about 5am last night, and thought I spotted a serious flaw. Couldn`t be bothered to wade through all the maths of what you posted, thought I`d check it out again when I got up, but now it`s gone. Apologies if I`m wrong, and I`ve forgotten the exact figures you quoted, but I`m sure I saw;

`x` successful lays, profit = `x`  followed a few lines of maths later by;
`y` unsuccessful lays, loss = `z`.

That`s fine but, in your figures, `z` exceeded `x`...

Is this why the O/P has been deleted?

Hi timbuctooth,  not sure where its gone.  maybe it was taken down.  results are as follows:

Slect Lays System (lays 1 horse per race) -

WIN
Average Lay Price    9.07   
Successful Lays    1382   
Losing Lays    201   
Total Bets    1583   
Win %    87%   
ROI %    102.1    (1 % per selection)
Profit    £1,021.40    (£10 per point)
Av Profit per day    £4.48    (£10 per point)

PLACE
Average Lay Price    3.13   
Successful Lays    1049   
Losing Lays    531   
Total Bets    1583   
Win %    66%   
ROI %    57.1    (1 % per selection)
Profit    £571.93    (£10 per point)
Av Profit per day    £3.40    (£10 per point)

Binary Lays (lays 2 horses per race)

WIN
Average Lay Price    7.52   
Successful Lays    1746   
Losing Lays    293   
Total Bets    2043   
Win %    86%   
ROI %    127.1    (1 % per selection)
Profit    £1,271.11    (£10 per point)


PLACE
Av Profit per day    £5.58    (£10 per point)
Average Lay Price    2.79   
Successful Lays    1272   
Losing Lays    771   
Total Bets    2043   
Win %    62%   
ROI %    85.8    (1 % per selection)
Profit    £1,071.72    (£10 per point)
Av Profit per day    £4.70    (£10 per point)

Really keen to hear what you think about the maths because I am very worried about losing on this and if the maths is wrong and the risk is too high I obviously need to reconsider whether this is able to proceed or not.

Thanks

Select Lays average price of unsuccessful lay - 7.10, place - 2.77
Binary Lays average price of unsuccessful lay - 6.16 (but remember the 'other' selection will always be a loser to 'true' price 5.16, place - 2.76

Maybe laying at a fixed liability is safer.  Say 5% liability on win bets and 3% liability on place bets.  Would that work at these figures?

I imagine the opening post was taken down because it possibly referred to an illegal activity ie accepting deposits from third parties without a licence.

Norris;
as I said, it was late at night, and I might have been mistaken. Don`t suppose you`ve got a copy of the O/P?
From memory, you gave an introduction to the issue, then listed some details, but not the ones you`ve re-posted; a different format, with a bit of a summary. In that summary, you said something like `800 successful lays`, which equated to 800 points profit. Then, a few lines later, you said something like `200 unsuccessful lays, at an average price of 5.5`,  I remember thinking `that`s a 900 points loss, against an 800 point profit, there`s something wrong. Too late now, I`ll re-read it and check all the lines of maths, tomorrow`.

I`m no pro, but I have been winning on here for 12 years, and I do know a few pros, and some of their betting beliefs and habits. Without exception, none of them risk more than, at the very most, 2% of their bank, but 1% and even less would be the norm. This winning at gambling malarkey is a long term game, and you can`t win if you`re risking one sixth of your bankroll on one event. All you need is six results to go against you, and you`re out. Don`t try to tell yourself that it can`t happen as, laying at the prices you`re laying at, it most certainly can happen.

OK, it`s unlikely, but how would your head and nerves be feeling if three on the trot go against you? Your bankroll is now 50% of what it was a few minutes ago, and the pressure`s on. Do you still risk one sixth of your initial bank, even though that`s now one whole third of the remaining bank? After all, if this one goes in, you`re down to only two bets left, and two bets is nothing! OR, feeling the pressure, do you decide to reduce stakes from the depleted bank, only to go on the much-needed good run, but fail to maximise profits?

Others have mentioned various problems but the biggest one will be in being able to reproduce the same results, whilst betting 10 or 20-times bigger stakes. There`s nothing wrong with constantly making 1% on your bets but, most racing markets won`t have enough liquidity to be able to maintain that 1%, for such relatively bigger stakes. Very simplistic maths, but even having to lay at 2.02 rather than 2.00 is enough to wipe out your edge.



Bottom line? Winning`s a marathon, not a sprint.
But good luck with it anyway!

The difference between laying at fixed liability to fixed stake is that you will win at different ends of the market:-

fixed liability - if the winner of the race has odds larger than *the boundary between Industry SP and BFSP and you have laid it, then you have done all right even though you have laid it because your liability is limited. Taking it to the extreme, if you lay all in the race at the same fixed liability, you win on the race if the winner is NOT one of the favourites.

fixed stake - if the winner of the race has odds less than *the boundary between Industry SP and BFSP and you have laid it, then you have done all right even though you have laid it because the odds reduce your liability. Taking it to the extreme, if you lay all in the race at the same fixed stake, you win on the race if the winner is one of the favourites.


* in each race there usually is a natural boundary between Industry SP and BFSP if you compare the % difference between the two.

Would i be correct in saying as a rule the % difference between industry SP and BSP on the favourites is tighter than on outsiders?

Are you guys implying that I need to get lays as close to Industry SP as possible in order to make a LT profit?

yes on both counts

knight commander has 75% strike rate 1 a day.

.95 for a correct lay ,so you can never get over 100% srike,place /back you can