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successful,but needs approval from forum
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Apologies if broken any forum rules for my posting. Hopefully it will be approved and allowed to stay up. Essentially I guess my main question is: Is there a formula based on Average Price, Win % and/or ROI that validates the correct use of bankroll with the main priority of NOT losing bankroll or not gearing liability too high. There are people way smarter than me on this forum and hoping to get some help from you guys. Thanks again in advance
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fishing thread
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I've no idea. But am I right in thinking that you've risked about £130k (on your first win lay example)for a profit of nearly £1300? If so then that sounds a pretty poor return to a layman.
Stridingedge is one of the best people on here for this kind of thing. He'll give you a few pointers I'd have thought. Good luck. |
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bsp you wont win.
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Thanks S.kenbo. yes you are correct. pretty big outlays. Biggest liability per selection in the win of 16.5% (that seems big to me). Especially if stakes are increased it just gets a little scary. Deadbrain59 - prices are taken at a fixed time before the off by a betting bot. Sometimes prices better BSP, sometimes prices bigger than BSP
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how did u manage to lay5 in a row yester....what where they
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Your problem is not bigger stakes but that at most meetings you will need to lay at higher prices (on the same horses) to accommodate those stakes, and then your profit will disappear.
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Poast yer bet cloon
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long term laying into a 100% market at say 3% commission will result in a 97% return over time HTH
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SELECT LAYS:
1325 Ayr Flat Third Order 5.9 Lost 9.5 1345 Newbury Flat Robin of Navan 5.6 Lost 9.5 1400 Ayr Flat Bletchley 3.95 Lost 9.5 1425 Catterick Flat Shabeeh 3.45 Lost 9.5 1455 Listowel NH Sir Vincent 13.5 Lost 9.5 1500 Catterick Flat Law Power 7.4 Won -64 1515 Newmarket Flat G K Chesterton 4 Lost 9.5 1530 Listowel NH Clonalig House 4.9 Lost 9.5 1535 Catterick Flat Apamurra 7.6 Lost 9.5 1605 Listowel NH Katie Do 7.4 Lost 9.5 1610 Catterick Flat O'Connors Girl 15.5 Lost 9.5 1620 Ayr Flat Flight Officer 6.8 Lost 9.5 1640 Listowel NH Not For You 3.7 Lost 9.5 1700 Newmarket Flat Talent To Amuse 14.5 Lost 9.5 1705 Newbury Flat Crystal Ocean 2.74 Lost 9.5 1710 Listowel NH Deans Road 2.56 Won -15.6 1720 Catterick Flat Strong Force 3.85 Lost 9.5 1735 Newmarket Flat Jailawi 9.6 Lost 9.5 1740 Wolverhampton Flat Whispering Soul 9.8 Lost 9.5 1825 Catterick Flat Disclosure 7.6 Lost 9.5 1910 Wolverhampton Flat Spohisticated Air 5.7 Won -47 2010 Wolverhampton Flat Royal Reef 15 Won -140 2040 Wolverhampton Flat Luang Prabang 7.4 Won -64 2110 Wolverhampton Flat Alsacienne 3.2 Won -22 BINARY LAYS: 1545 Ayr Flat G Force 14 Lost 9.5 1545 Ayr Flat Growl 6.2 Lost 9.5 1655 Ayr Flat Glengarry 5.9 Lost 10 1655 Ayr Flat That is The Spirit 7.8 Lost -68 1645 Catterick Flat Card High 0 1645 Catterick Flat Sherman McCoy 17.5 Lost 9.5 1755 Catterick Flat Napolean Solo 9.8 Lost 9.5 1755 Catterick Flat Coolcalmcollected 3.8 Lost 9.5 1415 Newbury Flat Harry Angel 4.5 Won -35 1415 Newbury Flat Sutter Country 14 Lost 10 1405 Newmarket Flat Via Via 10.5 Lost 9.5 1405 Newmarket Flat Whozthecat 6 Lost 9.5 1440 Newmarket Flat Feed The Goater 7.4 Lost 9.5 1440 Newmarket Flat Il Piccolo Grande 8 Lost 9.5 1625 Newmarket Flat Menai 9.2 Lost 9.5 1625 Newmarket Flat Francisco 11 Lost 9.5 1810 Wolverhampton Flat Eland Ally 8.4 Lost 9.5 1810 Wolverhampton Flat Equal Point 13 Lost 9.5 1840 Wolverhampton Flat Control Centre 6.8 Won -58 1840 Wolverhampton Flat King of Castilla 10.5 Lost 10 |
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These are all of yesterdays selections. As you can see....a horrible end to proceedings after a nice start
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Big Boss....Do you mean 3% liability or 3% per bet....?
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1645 Catterick Flat Card High 0
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1655 Ayr Flat That is The Spirit 7.8 Lost -68
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''This is a lifestyle business so I wish you luck but won't be investing''
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^ her name is Deborah ..
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1645 - price too big for a lay Delta
1655 - Should say 'Won" - good spot! |
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Thanks Flukes
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Judging from your selections I think your end up chasing and blowing the lot.My advice would be keep away from the live money especially on the A/W.
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NorrisMcSquirter 18 Sep 16 15:16
1645 - price too big for a lay Delta With both systems, I lay in the win and place and up to odds of 17.5. it was 17.5/1 |
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When the bet placed through the bot Delta it was bigger than 17.5 so the bet didn't place!
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handtorofe - what you mean 'live' money? late punts on horses? A/W killed me last night as has the weather recently but still 'up' across both systems this month
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told you
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18.09.2016 1630 Plumpton NH Mr Bien 12.5 Lost 9.5 -427.1 6 Lost 9.5
18.09.2016 1630 Plumpton NH Do We Like Him 9.8 Lost 9.5 -417.6 4.6 Lost 9.5 18.09.2016 1700 Plumpton NH Austin Fryers 9.4 Lost 10 -407.6 3.95 Lost 10 18.09.2016 1700 Plumpton NH Osgood 9.8 Won -88 -495.6 3.15 Won -21.5 18.09.2016 1410 Uttoxeter NH Song of The Night 11 Lost 9.5 -486.1 2.86 Lost 9.5 18.09.2016 1410 Uttoxeter NH Better Days 9.2 Lost 9.5 -476.6 2.88 Lost 9.5 18.09.2016 1540 Uttoxeter NH Best Work 8.8 Lost 9.5 -467.1 3.7 Lost 10 18.09.2016 1540 Uttoxeter NH Moon Over Rio 12.5 Lost 9.5 -457.6 4 Won -30 18.09.2016 1610 Uttoxeter NH Saint Charles 9.8 Lost 9.5 -448.1 2.98 Won -19.8 18.09.2016 1610 Uttoxeter NH Off The Ground 5 Lost 9.5 -438.6 2.18 Lost 10 18.09.2016 1640 Uttoxeter NH Premier Rose 15 Lost 9.5 -429.1 4.1 Lost 9.5 18.09.2016 1640 Uttoxeter NH Cruise in Style 13 Lost 9.5 -419.6 3.7 Lost 9.5 18.09.2016 1710 Uttoxeter NH Lord Of Drums 6.59 Lost 9.5 -410.1 2.16 Lost 10 18.09.2016 1710 Uttoxeter NH Larkhall 6.8 Lost 9.5 -400.6 2.52 Won -15.2 4.6% up on Binary lays today.... |
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18.09.2016 1430 Plumton NH Royal Irish Hussar 3.1 Lost 9.5 -26 1.78 Won -7.8 256.5
18.09.2016 1440 Uttoxeter NH Get Me Home Now 7.2 Lost 9.5 -16.5 2.1 Lost 9.5 266 18.09.2016 1450 Gowran Park Flat Rich History 3.1 Lost 9.5 -7 1.67 Lost 9.5 275.5 18.09.2016 1500 Plumpton NH Take A Bow 8.4 Won -74 -81 3.5 Won -25 250.5 18.09.2016 1520 Gowran Park Flat Laganore 7.2 Lost 9.5 -71.5 2.48 Won -14.8 235.7 18.09.2016 1530 Plumpton NH Jim Dandy 1.96 Lost 9.5 -62 1.29 Lost 9.5 245.2 18.09.2016 1600 Plumpton NH Volcanic 4.9 Lost 9.5 -52.5 2.04 Lost 9.5 254.7 18.09.2016 1620 Gowran Park Flat Daydor 6.8 Lost 9.5 -43 2.74 Lost 9.5 264.2 18.09.2016 1720 Gowran Park Flat Highly Toxic 11.5 Lost 9.5 -33.5 2.78 Lost 9.5 273.7 |
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Select Lays - jus over 1% up. Small win better than a loss
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If I am reading it correct and you are risking up to 16.5% of a bank on one bet that is way too high imo.
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I agree with braindead over time you'll lose money laying at bsp.
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Magic_Daps - yes you are correct. Should I perhaps limit at say 10%. So liability of 10% for bets over 11. Do you guys think laying at liability is better than flat stakes?
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1) if you have a head for hard sums, you should look at "fractional Kelly staking" which basically means you stake a percentage of your bankroll depending on both the price and the true probability of winning. Since you do not really know the true probabilities in a horse race, you deploy only a fraction of the calculated stake.
2) as suggested earlier, one problem with your massively increased bankroll is that you will have to lay the same bets at bigger prices, except perhaps at the very big meetings. If you are trying to take £1,000 out of a horse at 2.6 but there is only £300 queued at that price, you need to go bigger (which affects your profitability) or not get the full bet on (which affects your profit). 3) a sociological point. You are currently laying on behalf of your mates who have put in relatively small amounts. If it all goes pear shaped then you are in for a couple of years of ribbing and their kids will not get the new exploding phones for Christmas. If this chap with £50,000 loses the lot, will he be so understanding or will he put the frighteners on you and the missus to sell your car to reimburse him? In short, it looks to me like you are getting out of your depth mathematically, financially and maybe even criminally. |
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the FCA would be very interested in your activities!
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Thanks for the replies, openness and honesty guys. Yes it possibly is a scary proposition having a big investor wanted to throw some cash at this. However it has come as a recommendation from one of the my investors who has made nearly 60% ROI on his £1050 investment. Not really sure how to proceed now. I believe I have a very good system for identifying losers but 'past success is no predictor of future success eh?' Ramtuma - I'll try and get my head around Kelly and Gamblers Ruin etc.
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Delta has a point about the FCA.
And HMRC if you are not paying income tax (since you appear to be running this as a business). |
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Delta's point is very important ...if you're accepting deposits from investors without a licence the FCA will come down on you like a ton of bricks.
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If the so-called "big investor" is a forumite he may be reconsidering. If he's not could you please send him this way as I have a fool-proof stop-at-a-winner system and last time I checked the longest losing run required a bank of only £49,000.
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Hey, Norris, where`s your opening post gone to? I read it at about 5am last night, and thought I spotted a serious flaw. Couldn`t be bothered to wade through all the maths of what you posted, thought I`d check it out again when I got up, but now it`s gone. Apologies if I`m wrong, and I`ve forgotten the exact figures you quoted, but I`m sure I saw;
`x` successful lays, profit = `x` followed a few lines of maths later by; `y` unsuccessful lays, loss = `z`. That`s fine but, in your figures, `z` exceeded `x`... Is this why the O/P has been deleted? |
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Hi timbuctooth, not sure where its gone. maybe it was taken down. results are as follows:
Slect Lays System (lays 1 horse per race) - WIN Average Lay Price 9.07 Successful Lays 1382 Losing Lays 201 Total Bets 1583 Win % 87% ROI % 102.1 (1 % per selection) Profit £1,021.40 (£10 per point) Av Profit per day £4.48 (£10 per point) PLACE Average Lay Price 3.13 Successful Lays 1049 Losing Lays 531 Total Bets 1583 Win % 66% ROI % 57.1 (1 % per selection) Profit £571.93 (£10 per point) Av Profit per day £3.40 (£10 per point) Binary Lays (lays 2 horses per race) WIN Average Lay Price 7.52 Successful Lays 1746 Losing Lays 293 Total Bets 2043 Win % 86% ROI % 127.1 (1 % per selection) Profit £1,271.11 (£10 per point) PLACE Av Profit per day £5.58 (£10 per point) Average Lay Price 2.79 Successful Lays 1272 Losing Lays 771 Total Bets 2043 Win % 62% ROI % 85.8 (1 % per selection) Profit £1,071.72 (£10 per point) Av Profit per day £4.70 (£10 per point) Really keen to hear what you think about the maths because I am very worried about losing on this and if the maths is wrong and the risk is too high I obviously need to reconsider whether this is able to proceed or not. Thanks |
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Select Lays average price of unsuccessful lay - 7.10, place - 2.77
Binary Lays average price of unsuccessful lay - 6.16 (but remember the 'other' selection will always be a loser to 'true' price 5.16, place - 2.76 |