Maybe laying at a fixed liability is safer.  Say 5% liability on win bets and 3% liability on place bets.  Would that work at these figures?

Norris;
as I said, it was late at night, and I might have been mistaken. Don`t suppose you`ve got a copy of the O/P?
From memory, you gave an introduction to the issue, then listed some details, but not the ones you`ve re-posted; a different format, with a bit of a summary. In that summary, you said something like `800 successful lays`, which equated to 800 points profit. Then, a few lines later, you said something like `200 unsuccessful lays, at an average price of 5.5`,  I remember thinking `that`s a 900 points loss, against an 800 point profit, there`s something wrong. Too late now, I`ll re-read it and check all the lines of maths, tomorrow`.

I`m no pro, but I have been winning on here for 12 years, and I do know a few pros, and some of their betting beliefs and habits. Without exception, none of them risk more than, at the very most, 2% of their bank, but 1% and even less would be the norm. This winning at gambling malarkey is a long term game, and you can`t win if you`re risking one sixth of your bankroll on one event. All you need is six results to go against you, and you`re out. Don`t try to tell yourself that it can`t happen as, laying at the prices you`re laying at, it most certainly can happen.

OK, it`s unlikely, but how would your head and nerves be feeling if three on the trot go against you? Your bankroll is now 50% of what it was a few minutes ago, and the pressure`s on. Do you still risk one sixth of your initial bank, even though that`s now one whole third of the remaining bank? After all, if this one goes in, you`re down to only two bets left, and two bets is nothing! OR, feeling the pressure, do you decide to reduce stakes from the depleted bank, only to go on the much-needed good run, but fail to maximise profits?

Others have mentioned various problems but the biggest one will be in being able to reproduce the same results, whilst betting 10 or 20-times bigger stakes. There`s nothing wrong with constantly making 1% on your bets but, most racing markets won`t have enough liquidity to be able to maintain that 1%, for such relatively bigger stakes. Very simplistic maths, but even having to lay at 2.02 rather than 2.00 is enough to wipe out your edge.



Bottom line? Winning`s a marathon, not a sprint.
But good luck with it anyway!

Would i be correct in saying as a rule the % difference between industry SP and BSP on the favourites is tighter than on outsiders?

Are you guys implying that I need to get lays as close to Industry SP as possible in order to make a LT profit?

knight commander has 75% strike rate 1 a day.