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I'm sure this has been asked many times before but is there any evidence to suggest that by just laying favourites you can make profits?
On any given day there will many favourites that lose so why not just lay them?
On any given day there will many favourites that lose so why not just lay them?
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Replies: 34
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It's easy, crack on and let us know how you do.
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It really comes down to the price you lay at but a blanket lay of all favourites at bsp will lose you money.
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If u had started laying favs just a week ago you could now retire - however not guaranteed. I know someone who claims to make a living laying odds-on pokes for a place.
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I'm sure it isn't as easy or as straightforward as I make it sound hence I wondered if there is a method to do so which @posy and @ihal essex suggest there is.
Does betting software such as Bet Angel allow you to lay all horses at set parameters? |
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bazzer..if there were a guaranteed system wouldnt everyone be doing it?
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I know there isn't any holy grail which is why we look for alternatives. In fact, if we were all laying there'd be no betting. Just seems that so many favs lose there must be a method to gain advantage from this.
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well documented the % of winning favs has averaged out at 33% for many a yr.
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The trick is knowing in advance which will fall into the 33% and which will not
 HTH |
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.95 lay,above that your giving money away.
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dont lay faves in group races , and no bigger than 4.1 , you will be ok on turf only , dont lay on the a/w , plus dont lay over the jumps
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,you can start with my recent naps,12 in a row
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what are the naps xmoney what are thay bet or lay
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win comp
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@xmoneyx The reason I looked at this was because I subscribed to a Tip service and most of the so called tips have lost hence made me wish I'd laid them instead!!
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xmoney the tips servies are a waste of time , if you watch every race make a note of the bad horses
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@roida I had seen that stat previously and, again, it heightened my interest in exploring whether it would be better to lay horses but as some have mentioned here it is clear that you would have to lay under certain parameters. I appreciate that many of the forum members here are seasoned betters and have explored many systems to find one that profits.
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=+9 off15 lays this month,negative jockey and trainer '@track , 3 today short ,wouldnt lay any today.
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Why the fixation with "favourites"? Everything else being equal, would you rather lay a 5/1 favourite or a 3/1 2nd fav?
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This 33% intrigues me, always has done - if anyone has a mathematical explanation, I'd be pleased to hear it.
Incidentally it's not 33% but it's thereabouts. Here are the stats for GB and Ireland clear SP favs since 2012:- 2016 34.5 2015 35.14 2014 35.85 2013 35.06 2012 34.46 If it used to be 33% in years gone by and now it is more like 35%, then perhaps there is a bit of 'modern myth' about the consistency of this percentage. I've heard smaller fields may be responsible for a rise in the number of favs winning. |
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On any given day there will many favourites that lose so why not just lay them?
Guaranteed profits with this system...start laying the favs that lose and you will never look back #easystreet #peaceofpi$$ |
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I purchased a laying fave system on ebay for £19.99.
Great write ups loads of comments from satisfied customers. Really professional listing. The result? First 7 lays all won any my betfair account was empty. |
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To counter that the place betting system they gave me to replace it is great.
Top back yo day is princes momoka in the 2:50 |
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jackboo 14 Sep 16 10:19
dont lay faves in group races , and no bigger than 4.1 , you will be ok on turf only , dont lay on the a/w , plus dont lay over the jumps I'd like some reasoning/evidence behind this please |
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National Hunt, Flat and Aw have exactly the same A/E number of winners for favs which equates to 0.93.
Turf Group races have an A/E of 0.92 Turf class 2's the A/E is less at 0.89 Class 5 favs have the strongest A/E at 0.97 and class 6's 0.93 There's no evidence that laying favs in group races puts you at more of a disadvantage. As someone mentioned earlier there's no reason to see favs as unique just for being a fav rather than just another horse which you are trying to identify as good or bad at the price. you are either a good judge of a horse in a given race or not over time and applying as many filters as you want just won't change this. |
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favourites getting hammered !!!!!!!!!
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What does A/E stand for?
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the actual and expected number of winners based on their sp's, 1 is where actual=expected
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A young lass on the forum named Moffitt
Believed that laying a fav brought a profit To be angst and despair Her bank was paid bare And she's now tipping favs as The Prophet |
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@stridingedge - Thank you
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@RoyalAcademy - RADA would welcome you
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Typical that today's bet was crap
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read lay comp.
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bazzer111 14 Sep 16 15:23
@RoyalAcademy - RADA would welcome you Russian Anti-Doping Agency?  |
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surprised that Lex has not contributed to this fred
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