Frankel

anyway, two more about to debut for your delectation:-


More Frankel juveniles set to hit the track

By David Milnes 7:10PM 22 AUG 2016

FRANKEL has made a phenomenal start to his stud career with 15 winners already on the board and nine individual winners from just 13 of his offspring who have hit the racecourse. Our Newmarket correspondent David Milnes, who tracked the Sir Henry Cecil-trained superstar through his career on the Newmarket gallops, focuses on some of the second wave of baby Frankels who are about to hit the track.

Swiss Storm (David Elsworth)
This powerful colt could debut at the Newmarket July course, just as his sire did six years ago, as he is entered in a 7f maiden there on Friday. A half-brother to smart sprinters Swiss Spirit and Swiss Diva, Swiss Storm is still part-owned by his breeders Lordship Stud but it is noticeable Elsworth himself has also taken a share. In a rare move, Elsworth boxed the colt to the other side of Newmarket for an early morning exercise on the Al Bahathri last week which left connections purring.

Rainbow Legacy (Sir Michael Stoute)
Stoute is yet to run any of his Frankels, but this strapping colt is the most forward and not far off a run. Entered in next year's Investec Derby, he is the only Frankel on the books of the Ballymacoll Stud and is bred to stay well as his dam is a full-sister to former Stoute-trained top-notchers Golan and Tartan Bearer. Rainbow Legacy has been pleasing in his work on the all-weather surfaces of late and can be expected to debut sometime next month over seven furlongs or a mile.

Aug 20, 2016 -- 2:21PM, brigust1 wrote:

A bit of a comparison with a couple of the 1970's champions.Frankel produces over 100 foals per year and will have produced over 400 foals by this time next year.Mill Reef produced 394 foals in his whole 14 year stud career and produced 63 black type winners, 38 Group winners, 18 Group 1 winners and 2 Derby winners in Reference Point and Shirley Heights. Nijinsky only produced 25 foals in his first year yet he went on to produce over 150 black type winners including 3 Derby winners (Golden Fleece, Shahrastani and Lamtarra) and an Arc winner in Lamtarra. He also produced a Kentucky Derby winner and US Horse of the Year winner in Ferdinand.  And this at a time where Group races were far, far fewer. Just a simple comparison.

When Mill Reef and Nijinsky were around there was no Viagra so you can understand the stats

Dunc if you are going to run 10f then the Juddmonte is the race to go for. The competition was below standard and the only danger was if St Nicholas Abbey rose to the occasion. He was a 12f+ horse who had never won at 10f. If the race was run the way See The Stars race was run it could be interesting but JOB sat back and as the commentator said 'gave him a patient ride'. What was that all about? A 12f + horse in a 10f race on a flat track on fast ground. He never put St Nic in the race and only gave him a couple of back-handers. Watch the race again and watch JOB sitting still and on the bridle.
My conspiracy theory is that AOB didn't want to test the son of Galileo. The stakes were too high.
And lets not forget the other horses AOB ran against Frankel were Roderick O'Connor in the Guineas completely unfit finished nearly last but was obviously much better than that beating the 2000 Guineas 2nd in the Irish 2000 Guineas.  Zoffany caused a stir in the St James Palace Stakes beaten narrowly but AOB never ran him against Frankel again. Why not? Excelebration joined AOB from Marco Botti and in his the Queen Anne Stakes he ran by far the worst race of his life. Camelot and So You Think just swerved him.
I think if St Nicholas Abbey and Excelebration had run their proper races things would have been so much different.

Creppelo, I did compare like for like, what has him being first season got to do with it?

I understand all the arguments over whether he would stay or not but it doesn't really make a lot of difference. Unless he is a STS type, which he isn't, then I think he should be getting better 2yo colts. Maybe next year he will.

according to the late sir henry,frankel had the longest stride pattern he had ever seen.sussex stakes must have been the bet of the century,receiving weight off canford cliffs, 10/11.

Statistically Frankel has had a brilliant start to his stud career.

He is 8 winners from 11 runners 73% (2yos- Galileo is 10 winners from 35 runners 29%, Dubawi 8 from 14 57%)

His 2yos have only had 27 runs - even Nathaniel has had more.

Going by prize money (and it's star horses we want yes?) he is second in first season sires having had only a fraction of the number of runners of the other top 10.

This idea that Frankel had a history of emptying very quickly is absolutely absurd.  He stayed on strongly to beat Cirrus and Nathaniel at Ascot - two very strong stayers - in testing conditions. In the International he absolutely ran to the line also.  The SJP was quite clearly due to a ridiculous piece of jockeyship that saw him launched for home 3f out after an equally ridiculous job his pacemaker had done.  If Frankel stayed two miles he'd of been slowing down that day.

It's almost as ridiculous as suggesting Coolmore weren't off against Frankel because he shone a light on Galileo.  Absolute tosh I'm afraid.

remember it's brigust

TH that is your opinion and I have mine. There is nothing wrong with that. Because mine is different to yours does not necessarily make me wrong. A forum only works properly if we show respect for each others views even if we disagree with them.
Galileo's fee was 175,000 Euros before Frankel retired and now it is 350,000 Euros. How much would they have earned by making him look vulnerable? It's just a theory but you only have to look at the inept ride JOB gave St Nic among others and the questions should be asked. Coolmore are the kings of hype because breeding has always been more valuable to them than racing. That's my opinion.

what's the source for Galileo's fee -  it's been private since well before Frankel hit a racecourse?

brigust1

I respect your views and your arguments in the past regarding your champion but you are, in my opinion, mistaken here ...

Robin Hood (O'Brien) set a red hot pace out front trying to find a chink in Frankel's armour - why do that if you don't want him beat - the pace was terrific and yet Frankel ambled past St Nic (who raced in 4th) - there was nothing JOB, or anyone else for that matter, could do.

In my view your suggestion about the "Irish Lads" letting Frankel win does you no credit at all.

It's a conspiracy theory Crepello. Lighten up. And I'm not saying letting Frankel win for goodness sake because I think he would have won anyway but even the commentator on the day said JOB was taking it easy 3 furlongs out. Why would he, the commentator, do that? Even the commentator was expecting something different. It was so obviously against the way I thought he would have been ridden. Why would they do that?
If your jockey was riding a horse in a 10f Group 1 who had never won over 10f and needed every yard of 12f on a stiff track what instructions are you going to give your jockey considering you are also running a pacemaker to help him? Now look at JOB's ride and see if it matches the orders you would give.

And if, as is reported Galileo's stud fee has gone up by 175,000 euros and he covers up to 200 mares a season that is 35 million each season. To think that king of money is not discussed in a breeding business is naive in the extreme.

*kind

Now if you have watched that look at the same race won by See the Stars in 2009. The AOB horses set a strong pace for the likely non stayer Mastercraftsman who had never run over further than a mile before and where Murtagh led 3 out and hit Mastercraftsman at least 14 times. That is what a trier looks like. In my opinion of course.

Brigust1 didnt JOB ride like that on the majority of his mounts

Hooray someone with a sense of humour.

brigust1 - there was a red hot pace set by Robin Hood (O"Brien) in the Juddmonte - to even think that St Nic had any chance of beating Frankel in that race is being deluded.

Look at the race again without your rose tinted BG glasses on - he was a real champion in his own right but to deride Frankel like this is plain silly.

I was only taking your words as you wrote them so if you want to back out of your conspiracy theory then do so .....

No it is a conspiracy theory. By it's title that is what it is. You can go along with the masses and think everything is clean and above board but conspiracy theories take another view. What would be the fun in everyone agreeing?
Do I think St Nic would have beaten Frankel? Definitely not but I do think JOB could have tried harder. All I said was that I thought he didn't ride anywhere near the perfect race. You may think he did ride the perfect race in which case we disagree but if you don't think he rode the perfect race then you are in my camp. Like it or not.
I suggest had Frankel not run in this race and JOB had ridden exactly the same and made the same effort he would have been slaughtered on here. But Frankel was in the race so that's OK.

St Nic was a great talent and part of me believes he should have been held in a higher regard than he was. I also agree JOB should have tried harder, but i partly think that was his riding style. Even with his huge amount of winners he had in his short career there is a lot of poor rides (visually) that i think cost his horse victory.

It's an interesting idea that you can write any old whatnot and say it can't be proved wrong because it's an opinion.  Probably best we leave that for another day, although nothing I've written is opinion (btw, that's just an opinion so can't be proved wrong).  Yours most definitely is an opinion, brig old boy.  I'll leave others to suggest an adjective we could use for it.   

Back to that International...as Crepello keeps saying O'Brien ran two hares who ran hard.  The pace was so hot one of them couldn't even get to the front (as couldn't Frankel's pacer), and St Nic, as you suggested he should, hit the front over 2f out.  Dems de facts.

And just on Galileo; leaving aside the incorrect reporting of his fee, why did Coolmore chase round New Approach in his 3yo year?  He was the top rated Galileo at that time, the sire had been getting plenty of stayers and Coolmore would have bitten your arm off for a 2000 Guineas winner. so do they clear the decks for a son of Galileo to have his coronation at Newmarket?  No.  Instead, they downed him with Henrythenavigator (a Kingmambo).  And then repeated the trick at the Curragh.  Oh and they threw 5 horses at him in the Derby too.  It's simply not a game Coolmore play, brigust - unless they're protecting one of their own, of course, which Frankel very clearly wasn't.

TH we all have opinions. You may think one horse will win and I may think another. That's racing.

TH the pace was sooo hot in the Juddmonte that every runner was in line 2.5 furlongs out.

And look I'm sorry if I gave you the wrong impression about Coolmore. They are whiter than white. No hype and everything is trying for it's life. I hope I have given you the idea that anything other than that is true.

If you know the Galileo fee then tell me what it is otherwise how do you know the fee I gave is incorrect?

Would Coolmore have liked one of theirs to beat Frankel?

You had better believe it ....... what a horse they would have then ......

We are talking about Frankel, brigust. Specifically, Coolmore gifting Frankel wins.  My last sentence in no way suggested they're whiter than white - quite the opposite.  So I'm afraid I don't have a clue what your reply is all about.  Sadly, I rather suspect you don't either.

Think I'll leave you to it, Creps.

havent read the whole thread but if this hasnt been mentioned

P McCoy ‏@AP_McCoy Aug 14

AP McCoy Retweeted TEDJANKEY

I don't doubt it, but Galileo gets €500k ago 3 times a day for his troubles!!

I guess when Excelebration took on Frankel from the front in the Queen Anne that was to help Galileo's stud fee?

And Sea the Stars - clearly what Coolmore were actually trying to in all those races as help Galileo's half-brother look good. If only we'd known...

Utter stupidity from brigust and not for the first time either.

You don't honestly believe Coolmore had a horse to beat Frankel do you? That's crazy. I don't believe that for one moment.
When did I say 'gifting' Frankel wins? How ridiculous is that? The problem with some of you guys is you believe all of the hype without question. Anyone who questions anything is either blind or stupid. That means you are totally unable to hold a sensible debate without swerving all over the road.

Then you get comments like Excelebration taking on Frankel from the front in the QA. Bullet Train led until 3 out ffs. And for your information all of the ratings agencies believe Excelebration ran miles below his form. Why was that? Nothing obvious came to light. Do I think he would have beaten Frankel absolutely not. So don't get that stupid idea.

But when you are bombarded with facts about the Juddmonte and how easily Frankel won all I am saying is that a contribution to that fact is that his main contender according to all of the press at time and with stamina to burn was given, at best, an inept ride. But why was that? Even the commentator picked it up. Perhaps he is blind and stupid too.

All I pointed out was that Excelebration ran way below form in the Queen Anne. A point agreed by all of the agencies.
I suggested that JOB didn't give St Nicholas Abbey the greatest of rides in the Juddmonte considering his stamina.
I suggested Coolmore had a lot to gain through Galileo if Frankel were to remain unbeaten.
And I suggested a conspiracy theorist would have something to say.

And, by the way, I suggested Coolmore never had any horses to touch Frankel.

So you may agree or disagree with any of those points but you should listen to yourselves guys it's like a lynch mob. Anyone who dares to question any of the hype around Frankel and they get both barrels.   

Thanks TheFear, every little helps.

you can't expect to post rubbish and expect not to be called out on it

Tell me what was rubbish A-T. Then if it is rubbish I will withdraw it. But if it isn't rubbish will you say it isn't rubbish?

This is the time for you to disappear A_T because you won't find anything I have said that is rubbish and as you won't be prepared to accept that you will just disappear.

Seriously though that's OK I understand so have a good one.

A_T, Frankel is 18th in the 2 to lists without a decent colt. What's all this prize money nonsense? You can argue all you want about his ability but trying to say his stats are good is wrong. You are comparing £125k cover to sometimes a £4k cover. Cunco is his best colt (on ratings) and he isn't very good.

it's easier to post what makes any sense. when I find something i'll let you know.

Now that's a different story and it scares the h e ll outa me. When I race read I can write this horse or that horse had a poor ride, or never ran to form the majority agree but if the race has Frankel in it. Wow.

↑that was to brigust btw

truehoncho Frankel has had very few runners compared to other sires - yet he's already had 2 stakes winners. if you expected him to have speedy colts winning over 5f and 6f then you'll be disappointed - that's certainly not what breeders were expecting when they sent him their mares.

if you persist in believing he's a disappointment at stud answer this do you think his fee will go down next year?

Wow this thread has really taken off.

I agree whole heartedly with A_T

Do you really think Frankel's best offspring are going to be rushed out to win micky mouse maidens? their purchase price dictates that they are given as much time as they need with the view to the classics next year. I even make a comparison with Sea The Stars and Taghrooda on my blog.

All these suggestions that Frankel would have won the Arc easily are ridiculous, regardless of the quality of the opposition if he hadn't of stayed he would have been beaten FACT. Would he have stayed nobody knows FACT ..... everything else is just conjecture.

Also you can talk about covering fees as much as you like but they are just market forces, it has no correlation to the ability of progeny unfortunately

One thing you did not consider 18blue is the pressure these trainers are under. They interviewed Richard Fahey I think it was and he said the pressure to get these horses out to win first time up is immense. The expectations and publicity make training these horses completely different from any of the others.

There was also the suggestion that many wont even reach the racecourse. Either because of temperament or because they are worth too much.

Despite having a terrific book of mares and having made a bright start it is very,very unlikely, almost certainly unlikely, he will be as successful as the three stallions in the top line of his pedigree. Most getting a bit too carried away.

brigust1    23 Aug 16 20:39 
There was also the suggestion that many wont even reach the racecourse. Either because of temperament or because they are worth too much.


Dear me - whatever next?

most horses are no good regardless of sire. the vast majority of Galileo's are absolutely useless

No! Covering up to 200 mares a season and some are no good? You mean we won't get 200 new champions every year. That's not possible, surely?
My point was that if there are an increased number we won't see the pressure falls more heavily on the rest to deliver. Didn't really think I would have to explain that but there you go.

Brigust I don't want it to seem like your getting bashed but .....

"Richard Fahey I think it was and he said the pressure to get these horses out to win first time up is immense."

does that quote not mean getting them to win first time out (purely because of reputation) rather than rushing to get them out as early as possible. That's the way I would take it anyway.

To the earlier comments:

I agree his fee won't go down next year, he is far too hyped for that.

Do I think trainers are 'saving' their Frankels? Well there not saving their Galileo's, Shamardal's and Dubawi's. It's a fantasy to think trainers have great horses flying at home but their not racing them.

2yo's are running over a mile now, not 5f.

And one other thing, trainers are not under any pressure to do anything. The ones that train the well bred Frankels live in palaces and have more money than you can shake a stick at. They may not be Arabs but they certainly won't be going skint or rushing to the dole office if their Frankels don't win. They will just get their owners to buy some other stallion's yearlings and make a lot of money in the process.

It's not that they are flying at home, some of them need or are given more time to mature.

Do I think trainers are 'saving' their Frankels? Well there not saving their Galileo's, Shamardal's and Dubawi's. It's a fantasy to think trainers have great horses flying at home but their not racing them.

So you must think the currently unraced Galileos and Dubawis are all no good. Otherwise they'd be racing surely. It's simply not possible is it that their trainers don't think they're ready to race yet?

Golden Horn didn't race until October. Zarkava, Workforce and Treve in September. Dancing Brave himself debuted in September. Ruler of the World didn't race at all at 3.

Of course all the unraced Frankels are probably useless.

I have no idea 18blue. I guess he mean't giving them just an outing wasn't on the cards. If they can be readied to win first time up then they would.

With the number of races around then getting off to a flying start should be that much easier. After RH ran Queen Kindly twice in Class 5 races at Catterick. Would you think that would normally be the starting point for arguably his best 2 year old filly? I would have thought York or Haydock would have been more likely. I guess what he was saying was that because of the pressure to succeed he took no chances and run her at Catterick.

*RF not RH sorry.

Two observations....

Analysis of the comparision of 2yo's performance of first season sires and established sires has always been problematic. I believe that history has shown that initial assumptions can be dangerous. Happy to debate that.   

I have not looked at all the data, but it seems that the performance of Frankel 2yo's is below the 2yo performance list of all sires (18th?) this season. This is not unusual for first season sires, but I do not have much historical data. Does anyone?  True Honcho appears well informed.

It appears that vs other first season sires his equivalent position is 7th?, but that his strike rate (winners to runners) is huge - 70%+) and that his win and total prize money is disproportionate to that 7th position and puts him second on the list.  Again any statistically based thoughts?

Good thread this.   and hard not to get carried away with one's firm position on the subject

truehoncho - "2yo's are running over a mile now, not 5f"

Have we had a 2yo Group race over a mile yet?  Its only August

The Stonehenge is a Listed 2 y o race already run at Salisbury in August. You've the Fillies Mile and Racing Post Trophy both Group 1s in October, the May Hill for fillies and Royal Lodge for the boys in September at Group 2 level and the Autumn Stakes a Gr3 in October.

The Stonehenge is a mile race.

There all mile races. It's late.

Thank you brigust - my point was not that there are not 1m races for 2yo's (ffs I have probably been around longer than you) but that we are not really there yet as the group race programme for 2yo's demonstrates.  Apologies I was brought up on the Observer Gold Cup.     Sorry - but have we had a group race for 2yo's over a mile yet this season?

brigust posted the G1s for 2yos (he got that right! well done brigust!)

So are we saying that unless a Frankel wins one of them, we should regard him as a disappointment?

Incidentally Frankel has 24 in the Derby. 4 of them have run. 1 winner, 2 seconds, and the Coolmore colt which hasn't finished yet.

A challenge should be made to this assertion by Brigust1 on Aug 22, regarding Brigadier Gerard...

'' on the other hand did stay. When he ran on heavy ground, although pressed, he was always going away not tiring or being caught at the end''

He was almost caught by Sparkler in the St James's Palace on heavy at Ascot, beaten a head, and by Rarity [beaten a neck] on heavy in the Champion Stakes... 
I remember both races, it was a shock at the time as he scraped home...

As for Frankel at stud, from the few that we've seen, I see Frankel as so far merely assisting the mare, he's not stamped his mark - apart from some temperament issues - on any of them but they take more after the dam.   Obvious example is Queen Kindly as Fahey himself admitted is right after the mare 'Lady of the Desert'...
Do you think that's a fair comment?

Eventually we should see one or two  with an exceptional turn of foot, but he cannot be expected to reproduce himself, as I detect some commentators appear to be hoping for, expecting fireworks every time,  and when the excitement dies down, a few will be gelded along the way.
If you owned a Frankel, and you were advised it would improve its chances of success,  would you have it gelded?   as of now that's quite a question I think...

Hi A-T and Blackbarn, sorry I have to deal with young Smoky first.

You may have seen both races you refer to, Smoky, but you clearly had your eyes closed.

The going at Royal Ascot that day was so appalling the stalls couldn't be used so they had a flag start. Lester got a flyer on Sparkler and made almost all of the running and would have made all if he wasn't caught in the last 100 yards by BG who was having his first run on virtually bottomless ground. Joe said he was cantering throughout and only when he picked him up to go after the leader did he flounder for a few strides when he did get him on an even keel his class and stamina came into play and he caught him and won going away.

In the Champion Stakes the ground also turned heavy on the day with hours of continual driving rain. Multiple Gr1 winner Welsh Pageant made the running in what Lord Oaksey described eloquently as 'stormed away in front from the start setting a gallop designed to test his younger rival's stamina'. Rarity, a proven mudlark, went after BG when he stormed past Welsh Pageant coming out of the dip, Joe didn't want what happened in the St James Palace to happen again, but Rarity came at him with a wet sail in what what looked like a perfectly time challenge and looked like he momentarily led but again BG's stamina kicked in and he fought back to win.
You may have seen it but I was there. So lets stop talking tosh, eh?

Hi Blackbarn I doubt you are older than me. I was born in Airborne's year and the first Derby I went to, saw nothing by the way, was Relko's.

A-T the answer is no,  what Frankel does at stud means little to me. Like everyone else I guess we are just responding to the endless hype and, in many ways, how it is spun.

And the St James Palace was the last race on the card that day, to make matter worse, and wasn't on the BBC.

1971 Champion Stakes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oa8_9ZJBWdk

In the stands it looked like Rarity momentarily led but maybe he didn't. Rarity had already won 3 times at 10f and mainly on soft going and having run in both the St Leger and the Irish St Leger so clearly stamina wasn't considered to be a problem. But as Timeform wrote after the race 'Almost unnoticed Rarity was making up ground fast on the outside. He came up the hill like a lion and drew level with Brigadier Gerard 30 or 40 yards from the line at which point he looked sure to win. Brigadier Gerard would not be denied and with both horses giving their utmost they fought out a pulsating finish. Rarity just could not force his head in front and went dwn by little more that the breadth of a nostril.
In my view BG clearly showed that, even on ground he hated, stamina was not in short supply and that is evident throughout his career.

The St James Palace was shown on the BBC. Not on the day, but on the following day. My memory was that BG was tracking Sparkler on the rail, seemingly going ok, but when pulled out to challenge, he seemed to flounder for a few strides and looked like he might fail to get to him - perhaps due to the ground being better on the rail. Then he seemed to gather himself, and gained on Sparkler - maybe it was Sparkler fading a bit - he had after all set a good pace throughout - maybe it was BG getting going once he had found his feet in the bad ground - viewing on TV, it was hard to say which it was - anyway, he made up the couple of lengths he needed to, and nailed him pretty much on the line.

That sounds about right Ged. I saw it live and the weather was awful so never saw a lot. I never saw it on TV the next day because I was still racing. Why do they not keep these recordings? Channel4 dumped the Sussex Stakes recordings and there are only clips left. Of course if anyone has any recordings I would be interested to here from them. I have quite a few already. The ones I am missing are the Middle Park, St James Palace and the Sussex Stakes (I have the last furlong only).

I liked what Timeform wrote about the ground at the time, just to give you an idea. 'His (Brigadier Gerard's) owner's attitude at the time, that mud is the same for them all, might be commendably adventurous, but running an unbeaten horse of Brigadier Gerard's value in a swamp seems to many the taking of a greater risk than prudence would allow.
There is soft ground and soft ground. At Royal Ascot the course was a quagmire and racing was only just possible; at Newmarket in the Autumn (Champion Stakes Day) the ground was nearly as bad.'

I was at Goodwood when he won the Sussex. (I presume you were too!). We were meant to be going on Stewards Cup day, but the car broke down at Wisborough Green, so we didn't make it that day, had to go back home, and come back the next day (or 2), and pick it up and carry on down. I remember him being about 5 clear over the far side, and wondering whether he'd gone off too fast, but the gap seemed to stay that way all the way up the straight. I was standing near the rail, and remember the sound of him coming by, then daylight, then the chasers.

..once again...
''he was always going away not tiring or being caught at the end''

It seems it was your eyes that were...blinkered?  as you have described both races, how you can contend that he was ''going away'' and not being ''caught at the end'' is surprising.. he scrambled home both times, as you well know... the rest is just excuses I'm afraid...

Once again Smoky. Horse sits in behind leader. Horse passes leader and horse is furthest ahead of the leader at the line. No-one is saying the horse is hanging on. No-one is saying the horse is getting caught. No-one is saying the 2nd is an unlucky loser. No-one is saying if the race had been further the 2nd would have won.
Horse leads, horse challenges leader and possibly goes just ahead, horse battles back and is ahead at the line. No-one is saying the 2nd is an unlucky loser, no-one is saying had the race been further the 2nd would have won.

The facts are that had the races been further there is a much greater chance that the winner would have won further. That might just be my opinion but I would be surprised if it wasn't the vast majority of viewers opinion.

A_T, 18 blue and Bigrust who Wholeheartedly agree with these comments you made:
'Golden Horn didn't race until October. Zarkava, Workforce and Treve in September. Dancing Brave himself debuted in September. Ruler of the World didn't race at all at 3'

The sires of GH,Treve and Zarkava were failures. DB was by a good stallion but F would not be considered a success if he didn't do better. Workforce is by a good stallion but he gets good 2yo's such as Zoffany. Your own argument defeats you. Still Frankel may be ok.

Are we allowed to describe any sire that's given us Ouija Board, Golden Horn and Sea The Stars as a failure?  Seems a bit harsh to me.

Too right, Cape Cross far from a spoon in the mouth sire, began his stud career with an £8,000 fee. A true success.

Well if you are measuring Frankel against CC then you win!!

truehoncho wtf are you talking about, have you read the whole thread ? our argument defeats us seems kind of bizarre, the quote you've pulled refers to the fact we may not have seen the best Frankel has to offer us this season. strange post

i suggest you re read the post. A previous post states that CC is a good stallion suggesting that if Frankel is as good as him he will be a success. He wont.

truehoncho having a 'mare on ere 

re read the post several times it makes no sense

Stallion stats, like most other things in racing these days, can suffer from data overload and over analysis. More time needed.

Aug 25, 2016 -- 11:34AM, The Headmaster wrote:

Are we allowed to describe any sire that's given us Ouija Board, Golden Horn and Sea The Stars as a failure?

^^^ Don't know what happened with the quote function, commercially they were failures, breeders will have lost on them.

The fact it is September and we haven't seen a Group 1 class 2yo Frankel colt will be a mild disappointment for sure. What he is getting is proper racehorses that run though the line hard like all the good Galileos. Great sign.

If you are talking about not having seeing a Gr1 class 2YO Frankel colt so far actually win a race of that level in order to be considered Gr1 class, except for the Nunthorpe where it would up against all aged sprinters, I can't think of another UK Gr1 2YO race that has been run so far this season.

If on the other hand what was meant was that we haven't in general seen a Frankel 2YO colt that is Gr1 class well maybe we have but it just hasn't go on to show it yet and we still have the Middle Park, Dewhurst and Racing Post Trophy yet to come and it's even possible that this season's 2YO Frankel colts might need their 3YO season to show that they are Gr1 level anyway.

Precocity is important to commerciality, so if they are ready, they should get them out. A clear Coventry winner would be one I would consider Group 1 Class, I don't want to get bogged down in semantics.

Yet to see a Frankel 2yo colt with group 1 potential on the racetrack; I should clarify, misread you there IMA

Gosden's Seven Heavens looked promising but not been seen since early July. Juddmonte provide a list of his 2yos here:

http://www.juddmonte.com/stallions/frankel/twoyearolds.aspx


Incidentally I believe the best performers from Galileo's firs crop were Sixties Icon and Red Rocks.

Cape Cross won once (20/1, by neck from Poteen) from 6 runs @ Grp 1 level...went on to produce two Derby/Arc winners plus an 8-time Grp-1 winner in Ouija Board and two people on this thread are insistent he was a 'failure' at stud In fairness, one of them thinks it's September already...what chance have you got 

Failure commercially! not as a sire of racehorses.

All three of those horses were owned by owner-breeders who are breeding to race. Commercial Breeders would've lost on him as they would still now with his higher fee, as the market doesn't want them, they aren't fashionable.

I think we are at cross purposes, I'm not saying Frankel won't produce great racehorses, I'm saying that failure to produce Group 1 winning 2yo colts will hinder those trying to make a buck off him as precocity seems to be highly valued by the market.

Not sure if it matters all that much any way as nearly all of his seem to be in the hands of the big owner-breeders anyway from what I've seen so far.

This is a totally different subject, isn't it?  We're not debating whether breeders will be able to turn a coin on Frankel or whether they did/are with Cape Cross. If breeders didn't do well out of Cape Cross has the stallion failed or is it their judgement that's failed...on the mating and potential market forces balanced against his stud fee?  He's clearly a very good sire who came up the hard way and was capable of getting runners far better than he was.  Failure is a big word, this is Cape Cross not War Front.

Good point, two different things.

Frankel's fee prices him out of range for those seeking precocity. He's the second most expensive sire in England.

I think that's more a reflection of the sires in the UK at the minute and an opening for a "quality" sire that gets 2yos like Scat Daddy (deceased), War Front or Galileo.

Whoever finds one will make a lot of money.

Think that is what Darley were going for in buying New Approach and Teofilo as much as a way into Galileo. They're really rare.

Danehill Dancer was another one, great 2yos up to middle distance 3yos, George Washington would've been one but for his problem I'd say.

It would be interesting to know how much "profit" Coolmore make out of Galileo - as they must own 90% of them in training.

A_T  26 Aug 16 13:41

Frankel's fee prices him out of range for those seeking precocity. He's the second most expensive sire in England



neill d   26 Aug 16 13:43

I think that's more a reflection of the sires in the UK at the minute



Yeah, no reflection on him being probably the greatest racehorse ever 

I'm saying it is possible to use sires that get classy and precocious horses, Frankel's racing career is obviously a huge factor in his fee, whether he gets Gr 1 class 2yos remains to be seen.

ie, there are no sires in the UK that are proven get classy and precocious horses. Dubawi is brilliant but doesn't. Frankel will probably end up like him but if he managed to get brilliant 2yos as well, that would be smashing.

It is probably an unfair expectation, but such was the brilliant if not early 2yo that he was, expectation is that he can do everything. Maybe he will, but we ain't seen it this year yet. His next couple of books will tell.

I believe the reason the pressure is on those trainers with Frankel's to get them out and winning is because when the sales come around most buyers apparently, according to Henry Candy, want two year old winners as opposed to longer term projects. By having some 2 year old winners the probability of selling at good prices will be better than having no 2 year old winners but loads of good 3 year old prospects.

Owner breeders, on the other hand, who are not sending their yearlings to the sales will not necessarily mind taking more time with their horses.

ima_mazed66 22 Aug 16 13:18 Joined: 12 Oct 09 | Topic/replies: 9,869 | Blogger: ima_mazed66's blog
In my view Frankel would have stayed 12f all day long as a 3YO or 4YO and I doubt it was so much a case of Henry Cecil doubting that he would and more a combination of how he won the 2000gns

I agree Ima - Frankel (put to sleep and delivered by a jock who could TRULY judge pace) would have waltzed up over 12f - if not as a 3-yr-old in the Derby (although I believe he could have) for sure in an Arc

Watch the footage again of Frankel after the Juddmonte International - watch Cecil run his hands down the horse to find NOT A BEAD OF SWEAT and turn to comment on that...

It's a story for another thread -

"With 20/20 hindsight what jockey would you have put on Frankel?"

My vote would be Kinane... I would have paid him whatever it took to haul him out of retirement - the way he delivered STS in both the Derby and the Arc showed he still retained so much of his talent and timing... and Kinane at 85% would have been better than anything else available then... (and NOW, IMHO fwiw...!) 

Back to Frankel - I had a conversation very recently with someone who has finally decided to stop the chemo after 14 months... and just let the disease have him... I asked him why he put himself through such misery (his teeth have been rotted away by the ferocity of the treatment) and he said he still believed he could beat the disease until v recently...

Why did Cecil drag himself out of bed when he was a skeleton at the end?
HOW did he find the energy and willpower to do it?

Frankel...

Why did he put up with the tremendous doses that were litterally killing him as much as the disease itself?

Frankel

Why did he allow them to risk raising the potency to such a level that his poor body finally gave up and he didn't come off the treatment table alive?

Frankel!!!

He believed in the horse. He believed it could be even better as a five-year old - and there is footage of him saying that. We will never know his plans, but I'd be pretty damned sure the way Frankel sauntered to victory over the 10f at York and Acot that the horse would have stayed 12f into a gale as a 5yr-old...

Would we have seen the horse win an Arc, go to Singapore and HK and make a million new friends as it mopped up their 10f cup races and win the Breeders Cup turf by 10l going away?? 

I believe so, but will never know.

I'm sure there are many reasons many have stumped up a pile of cash for his stud fee:

* to introduce some speed into their tired old middle-distance blood-lines?
* because they believe they could do a better job of the training
* because they. too, want to own a little of the reflected glory?

Who knows, but if some of them want to see early returns and some others are prepared to sit and wait and allow the offspring to develop before putting them to the test, that's their perogative and one they have paid handsomely for...!

It's been fun watching the early ones (although it's not always been fun watching one-trick trainers treating every animal with the same training hymn-sheet - there's a thread elsewhere about to whom would you NOT send a Frankel colt, I'd nominate Mark Johnston all day long!) but the ones that will really set my heart on fire will be those that are more likely to be 10-12f eventually and come out over the next three months or early next season and I think it is those by which he will be better judged...

We shall see - that's half of the fun of the game, pitting one's wits and trying to find an edge...

Brigust1
I believe the reason the pressure is on those trainers with Frankel's to get them out and winning is because when the sales come around most buyers apparently, according to Henry Candy, want two year old winners as opposed to longer term projects. By having some 2 year old winners the probability of selling at good prices will be better than having no 2 year old winners but loads of good 3 year old prospects.


The intriguing aspect of this is that on retirement, Frankel was not your ordinary stallion prospect. Unlike the majority of new sires, he was never going to be a 'sales' horse. Of the 133 mares he covered in his first year, 126 in foal, only 31 were offered as yearlings. Most of Frankel's first crop were retained by owner-breeders. And not much has changed this year with only 9 yearlings catalogued at Arqana August 2016, 17 due to sell at Tatts Book 1 and just 3 at Goffs Orby.

Morning JM. I was only repeating what two trainers have said on the TV. Richard Fahey, I think it was, said he felt the pressure was on to get them out and winning and Henry Candy said more and more buyers are looking for 2 year old types compared with previous years.

I don't follow the sales side at all but I guess those with pockets deep enough would look at their investment in a completely different way than the usual studs and mare owners looking for sires and buyers with good investment potential. I doubt the prices involved here would necessarily represent investment potential. Nothing unusual about that I guess.