Trade or straight out Bet (Experienced help needed)

grate bait..

Always trade

as macnae told everyone yesterday, you dont go skint taking a prophet

Put a call out for bigmart, he has forgotten more than the rest of us combined will ever know

joe,post your last 3 mths p&l and i'll advise then.

greening out wastes money

What's the Potts' book like? Mordin's book "Betting For A Living" sucks

if u can back 30 losers in row.....and not lose ure head......there is hope....but pros dont back in grand naional

2016 Dates    Selections    Odds    Winner    Profit
               
02/01/2016    Relax    10/1    Soll    -200.00
   
09/01/2016    Emperors Choice    50/1    Mountainous    -400.00
            -50.00
14/01/2016    Tim Clark    440/1    F Gomez (-20)    -50.00
    Tim Clark    25/1        -50.00

15/01/2016    Rigadin de Beauchene    14/1        -240.00

06/02/2016    Le Reve    11/2    Le Reve    550.00

11/02/2016    B Snedeker & D Johnson    30/1 & 20/1    Vaughn Taylor (-17)    -100.00

18/02/2016    Luke Donald    170    Bubba Watson (-15)    -40.00
   
20/02/2016    Rigadin de Beauchene    7/1    Bishops Road    -140.00

22/02/2016    Seve    40/1    Boom The Groom    -400.00

25/02/2016    Paul Casey    42/1        -40.00
   
25/02/2016    Tot,BDor,BLev,Casey,Mcilroy    29/1    yes    2,900.00
26/02/2016    Nail'M    7/1    Fourofakind    -140.00
   
27/02/2016    Lightscameraction    8/1    Lightscameraction    1,440.00

27/02/2016    Virak    14/1    Theatre Guide    -200.00
   
01/03/2016    Eve, Sou, ManU, HerB    14/1    -    -100.00

03/03/2016    Paula Creamer    80/1        -40.00

03/03/2016    Sergio Garcia    46/1    Adam Scott (-12)    -40.00
   
05/03/2016    Relax    10/1    Shotavodka (7/1)    -200.00

05/03/2016    Dynamo Walt    25/1    Royal Birth (11/4f)    -400.00

06/03/2016    1 - 1  ,  2 - 2    -    Atl Madrid  3 - 1    800.00

07/03/2016    1 - 1  ,  2 - 2    10/1 , 20/1    Espanyol 2 - 1    400.00

17/03/2016    Keegan Bradley    80/1    J Day (14/1)    -40.00
   
18/03/2016    Zubayr    6/1    -    -120.00

19/03/2016    Lei,Sto, Bri, Nptn    30/1    Winner    3,000.00
               
22/03/2016    Cristie Kerr    33/1    Lydia Ko (-19)    -100.00
        7/1        -40.00
        11/4        -40.00

25/03/2016    Saucy Minx    16/1    Volunteer point (4/1)    -500.00

28/03/2016    Bless The Wings    12/1    Rogue Angel (16/1)    -240.00
               
                           
09/04/2016    Rule The World    50/1    Rule The World    20,000.00
        Many Clouds    9/1        -180.00
    GoonyElla    22/1        -400.00

11/04/2016    Bri, Mid, Lil, Gen    19/1        -400.00
11/04/2016    Mid, Lil, Gen    10/1        -600.00

12/04/2016    Teruntum Star    20/1    Teruntum Star    18,400.00
               
               
               
13/04/2016    Any Currency    8/1    Any Currency    4,000.00

14/04/2016    Perfect Candidate    11/1    Perfect Candidate    7,700.00
                    Sire Collonges    6/1        -400.00

14/04/2016    Luke Donald (EW)    16/1    B Grace    500.00
15/04/2016    Demora    10/1    Demora    10,000.00
                               
16/04/2016    Alvardo (EW)    32/1    Vicente    9,000.00
    Cause of Causes    18/1        -800.00

18/04/2016    Tott, Man C    20/1    3-0 Tottenham    -1,000.00

19/04/2016    -    -    -    -1,000.00


21/04/2016    C Hoffman    30/1    C Hoffman (-12)    27,000.00
    C Hoffman    30/1    B Steele    -900.00
    B Steele    46/1    B Steele    41,400.00
    C Hoffman, Kuchar, Walker    10/1    -    -500.00

21/04/2016    L Ko, S Feng, C Hoffman    10/1    -    -500.00
    L Ko, S Feng, C Hoffman    10/1    -    1,500.00

23/04/2016    Hull (draw), Chelsea    21/1    (2 - 2) , (1 - 4)    27,300.00
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
               
23/04/15    C Tringale    50/1    Brian Stuard(-16)    -1,000.00
    C Tringale, B Weekly    50/1, 90/1    Brian Stuard    -2,000.00
    C Tringale        -    -1,000.00
    B Weekly        -    -1,000.00
    S Lewis    11/1    J shin (-14)    -1,000.00
               
05/05/2015    P Mickleson E/W    35/1    B Stuard (-15)    7,800.00
    P Mickleson E/W    35/1        -1,600.00
               
12/05/2016    Luke donald E/W    110/1    J Day (-15)    -1,500.00
    Luke Donald E/W    110/1        -1,500.00
               
    Dustin Johnson    10/1        -1,600.00
    Dustin Johnson    15/1        -800.00
    C Hoffman    30/1        -800.00
    D John, C Hoff, J Day            -1,000.00
    D John, C Hoff, J Day            -1,000.00



ITS A BIT OF A MESS HAD TO COPY PASTE OFF WORD SHEET  ,  SOME GOLF BETS ARE FIRST DAY LEADERS AND 3 BALLS.

NAME CHOSEN IS FOLLOWED BY WINNER AND ODDS. SO YOU MAY SEE SAME NAME TWICE ON SAME LINE.

freddiewilliams    15 Jul 16 20:01 
if u can back 30 losers in row.....and not lose ure head......there is hope....but pros dont back in grand naional




Pros might not bet in the National now but Alex Bird had plenty of success in the race.

37 posts in nearly ten years.

Grand national is easiest race

the football doubles are both team score and win

Potts book is a good one, Against the crowd. Both books solidified what i already know and I like reading about different peoples Betting plans.

those bets certainly do not look like one of a professional, you may get winners but in the long run you will lose based on those betting patterns

I agree rmccarthy.

The golf bets trouble me most. With picking max 2 golfers in a tournament to be 1st round leaders and 72 hole leaders thats 4 bets and the 1st, 2nd day 3 balls thats 6 bets total.

with say 50 pga tournaments a year thats max 300 golf bets and although i had a B steele at 46/1 1st round leader winner and then C Hoffman overall winner at 30/1 in same tournament, I'm not confident at getting 300/1 over the year.

Im easily up on Horse racing.

Football bets are usually 1 weekly, 1 sat & 1 sunday, btts/win doubles and win 4 folds. Thats 6 footy bets a week, but not got enough data yet to see if i'd be up in the long run.

So when I write out my betting plan it would suggest now to Trade the Golf, Let the Racing bets ride and perhaps look into trading football correct scores.

Im just scheming at the moment.

How many bets do pros have?

I suppose then a good time to trade is when you watching the Event Live and you can foresee trouble ahead for your selection ?

ure opening post,,,,says uve always been good at picking winners.......are u a millionaire,,,,,do u have ure own plane and island.....if not why not

Good Shout Freddie, I've always had a full time job and no discipline. Never had any real structure to my betting but i'm now on the verge of a breakthrough, that moment you get when you know its possible to make a living from betting if you can get your sht togeather.

It took me a week to analyse the grand national winner and not always got the time to analyse but my main question i suppose was to a MATH Guy, What is the math concerning whether its better to trade or just straight out bet?

I've never thought about it before and wondered if anyone had already thought about it.

how many bets did u have in national....what made u back winner....it was a maiden in chases!

first question forget....answer 3

I really wanted the number 41 horse that didn't qualify, forgot its name, but after the ground report on saturday it basically threw alot of my short list away. 
Gooney Ella and Many clouds was my others but ground was bad for many clouds. many clouds straight win and gooneyella, rule the world each way.

Grand national is easy analyse race becuase there is just so much data.

If I use a £20'000 bankroll and only bet 2% then even with my 30 race loosing streak then i still have half my bankroll left.

and betting on Lupton Lad 3.35 Newbury for 8/1 with 2% of bankroll is £400 increasing bank by 16% if it wins. So Racing angle is solid. with no need to trade out.

but golf and football i will need to scheme about and get a staking plan and/or Trading plan. So the question was about bet or Trade on certain events?

The only time to trade out is at a loss to try and reduce exposure when a given bet is fooked up.  Never trade out because a price has shortened that's just silly.

Joe: how many of the 30 losing run would you have been able to trade out at a profit  in-running? I always prefer to protect my stake at first available meaningful profit stage. Even with a savage losing run of 30, by protecting your stake your bank would still remain fairly healthy.

So looking at it. if I choose a horse thats 11.0 for £10 thats £100 profit.

If in play the Odds shorten to half of that :

                                                  Half            :  5.5 then for trading at £20 lay you get back 10% of what you would have got if it won.
                                                 Quarter       : 2.74 then trading out £40 lay you get back 30%
                                                 Eighth          : 1.38 then trading        £80 lay you get 60%

I don't know enough about trading but Im thinking maybe looking at longer odds can more easily come into half and a quarter like 100.0 to 50.0 then 25.0 etc so trading out of these bigger prices would possibly be more profitable in the long run.

Im thinking maybe there is a curve that gives the optimal trade amount for each Price I can get but Im thinking now it will boil down to knowing my strike rate for the different odds i can get.

I asked a Proffessional in the end.

The Answer was to Treat Traditional betting and Trading as two complete seperate entities.

If you are good at picking winners then there is no need to trade but always keep records to look for an angle.

Thanks anyway