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Hi,
Iv'e Always been good at picking winners, after reading books from Alan Potts, Nick Mordin etc...
Im on the verge of taking the dive and going full time but read an article where one of the pros bets but also trades.
The Question is when is a good time to trade or just let it ride? I don't know where to begin.
My longest loosing run is 30 but recently had 8 winners on the bounce. I had Rule the World for example in the national and i'm trying to work out if I had traded out then I would have lost lots of profit, so where do you find the balance between trading and Just straight out betting?
Has anyone experienced this before, Would trading actually lose you money in the long run? How would you work it out?
Iv'e Always been good at picking winners, after reading books from Alan Potts, Nick Mordin etc...
Im on the verge of taking the dive and going full time but read an article where one of the pros bets but also trades.
The Question is when is a good time to trade or just let it ride? I don't know where to begin.
My longest loosing run is 30 but recently had 8 winners on the bounce. I had Rule the World for example in the national and i'm trying to work out if I had traded out then I would have lost lots of profit, so where do you find the balance between trading and Just straight out betting?
Has anyone experienced this before, Would trading actually lose you money in the long run? How would you work it out?
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Replies: 26
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grate bait..
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Always trade
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as macnae told everyone yesterday, you dont go skint taking a prophet
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Put a call out for bigmart, he has forgotten more than the rest of us combined will ever know
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joe,post your last 3 mths p&l and i'll advise then.
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greening out wastes money
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What's the Potts' book like? Mordin's book "Betting For A Living" sucks
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if u can back 30 losers in row.....and not lose ure head......there is hope....but pros dont back in grand naional
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2016 Dates Selections Odds Winner Profit
02/01/2016 Relax 10/1 Soll -200.00 09/01/2016 Emperors Choice 50/1 Mountainous -400.00 -50.00 14/01/2016 Tim Clark 440/1 F Gomez (-20) -50.00 Tim Clark 25/1 -50.00 15/01/2016 Rigadin de Beauchene 14/1 -240.00 06/02/2016 Le Reve 11/2 Le Reve 550.00 11/02/2016 B Snedeker & D Johnson 30/1 & 20/1 Vaughn Taylor (-17) -100.00 18/02/2016 Luke Donald 170 Bubba Watson (-15) -40.00 20/02/2016 Rigadin de Beauchene 7/1 Bishops Road -140.00 22/02/2016 Seve 40/1 Boom The Groom -400.00 25/02/2016 Paul Casey 42/1 -40.00 25/02/2016 Tot,BDor,BLev,Casey,Mcilroy 29/1 yes 2,900.00 26/02/2016 Nail'M 7/1 Fourofakind -140.00 27/02/2016 Lightscameraction 8/1 Lightscameraction 1,440.00 27/02/2016 Virak 14/1 Theatre Guide -200.00 01/03/2016 Eve, Sou, ManU, HerB 14/1 - -100.00 03/03/2016 Paula Creamer 80/1 -40.00 03/03/2016 Sergio Garcia 46/1 Adam Scott (-12) -40.00 05/03/2016 Relax 10/1 Shotavodka (7/1) -200.00 05/03/2016 Dynamo Walt 25/1 Royal Birth (11/4f) -400.00 06/03/2016 1 - 1 , 2 - 2 - Atl Madrid 3 - 1 800.00 07/03/2016 1 - 1 , 2 - 2 10/1 , 20/1 Espanyol 2 - 1 400.00 17/03/2016 Keegan Bradley 80/1 J Day (14/1) -40.00 18/03/2016 Zubayr 6/1 - -120.00 19/03/2016 Lei,Sto, Bri, Nptn 30/1 Winner 3,000.00 22/03/2016 Cristie Kerr 33/1 Lydia Ko (-19) -100.00 7/1 -40.00 11/4 -40.00 25/03/2016 Saucy Minx 16/1 Volunteer point (4/1) -500.00 28/03/2016 Bless The Wings 12/1 Rogue Angel (16/1) -240.00 09/04/2016 Rule The World 50/1 Rule The World 20,000.00 Many Clouds 9/1 -180.00 GoonyElla 22/1 -400.00 11/04/2016 Bri, Mid, Lil, Gen 19/1 -400.00 11/04/2016 Mid, Lil, Gen 10/1 -600.00 12/04/2016 Teruntum Star 20/1 Teruntum Star 18,400.00 13/04/2016 Any Currency 8/1 Any Currency 4,000.00 14/04/2016 Perfect Candidate 11/1 Perfect Candidate 7,700.00 Sire Collonges 6/1 -400.00 14/04/2016 Luke Donald (EW) 16/1 B Grace 500.00 15/04/2016 Demora 10/1 Demora 10,000.00 16/04/2016 Alvardo (EW) 32/1 Vicente 9,000.00 Cause of Causes 18/1 -800.00 18/04/2016 Tott, Man C 20/1 3-0 Tottenham -1,000.00 19/04/2016 - - - -1,000.00 21/04/2016 C Hoffman 30/1 C Hoffman (-12) 27,000.00 C Hoffman 30/1 B Steele -900.00 B Steele 46/1 B Steele 41,400.00 C Hoffman, Kuchar, Walker 10/1 - -500.00 21/04/2016 L Ko, S Feng, C Hoffman 10/1 - -500.00 L Ko, S Feng, C Hoffman 10/1 - 1,500.00 23/04/2016 Hull (draw), Chelsea 21/1 (2 - 2) , (1 - 4) 27,300.00 23/04/15 C Tringale 50/1 Brian Stuard(-16) -1,000.00 C Tringale, B Weekly 50/1, 90/1 Brian Stuard -2,000.00 C Tringale - -1,000.00 B Weekly - -1,000.00 S Lewis 11/1 J shin (-14) -1,000.00 05/05/2015 P Mickleson E/W 35/1 B Stuard (-15) 7,800.00 P Mickleson E/W 35/1 -1,600.00 12/05/2016 Luke donald E/W 110/1 J Day (-15) -1,500.00 Luke Donald E/W 110/1 -1,500.00 Dustin Johnson 10/1 -1,600.00 Dustin Johnson 15/1 -800.00 C Hoffman 30/1 -800.00 D John, C Hoff, J Day -1,000.00 D John, C Hoff, J Day -1,000.00 ITS A BIT OF A MESS HAD TO COPY PASTE OFF WORD SHEET , SOME GOLF BETS ARE FIRST DAY LEADERS AND 3 BALLS. NAME CHOSEN IS FOLLOWED BY WINNER AND ODDS. SO YOU MAY SEE SAME NAME TWICE ON SAME LINE. |
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freddiewilliams 15 Jul 16 20:01
if u can back 30 losers in row.....and not lose ure head......there is hope....but pros dont back in grand naional Pros might not bet in the National now but Alex Bird had plenty of success in the race. |
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37 posts in nearly ten years.
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Grand national is easiest race
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the football doubles are both team score and win
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Potts book is a good one, Against the crowd. Both books solidified what i already know and I like reading about different peoples Betting plans.
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those bets certainly do not look like one of a professional, you may get winners but in the long run you will lose based on those betting patterns
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I agree rmccarthy.
The golf bets trouble me most. With picking max 2 golfers in a tournament to be 1st round leaders and 72 hole leaders thats 4 bets and the 1st, 2nd day 3 balls thats 6 bets total. with say 50 pga tournaments a year thats max 300 golf bets and although i had a B steele at 46/1 1st round leader winner and then C Hoffman overall winner at 30/1 in same tournament, I'm not confident at getting 300/1 over the year. Im easily up on Horse racing. Football bets are usually 1 weekly, 1 sat & 1 sunday, btts/win doubles and win 4 folds. Thats 6 footy bets a week, but not got enough data yet to see if i'd be up in the long run. So when I write out my betting plan it would suggest now to Trade the Golf, Let the Racing bets ride and perhaps look into trading football correct scores. Im just scheming at the moment. How many bets do pros have? I suppose then a good time to trade is when you watching the Event Live and you can foresee trouble ahead for your selection ? |
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ure opening post,,,,says uve always been good at picking winners.......are u a millionaire,,,,,do u have ure own plane and island.....if not why not
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Good Shout Freddie, I've always had a full time job and no discipline. Never had any real structure to my betting but i'm now on the verge of a breakthrough, that moment you get when you know its possible to make a living from betting if you can get your sht togeather.
It took me a week to analyse the grand national winner and not always got the time to analyse but my main question i suppose was to a MATH Guy, What is the math concerning whether its better to trade or just straight out bet? I've never thought about it before and wondered if anyone had already thought about it. |
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how many bets did u have in national....what made u back winner....it was a maiden in chases!
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first question forget....answer 3
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I really wanted the number 41 horse that didn't qualify, forgot its name, but after the ground report on saturday it basically threw alot of my short list away.
Gooney Ella and Many clouds was my others but ground was bad for many clouds. many clouds straight win and gooneyella, rule the world each way. Grand national is easy analyse race becuase there is just so much data. |
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If I use a £20'000 bankroll and only bet 2% then even with my 30 race loosing streak then i still have half my bankroll left.
and betting on Lupton Lad 3.35 Newbury for 8/1 with 2% of bankroll is £400 increasing bank by 16% if it wins. So Racing angle is solid. with no need to trade out. but golf and football i will need to scheme about and get a staking plan and/or Trading plan. So the question was about bet or Trade on certain events? |
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The only time to trade out is at a loss to try and reduce exposure when a given bet is fooked up. Never trade out because a price has shortened that's just silly.
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Joe: how many of the 30 losing run would you have been able to trade out at a profit in-running? I always prefer to protect my stake at first available meaningful profit stage. Even with a savage losing run of 30, by protecting your stake your bank would still remain fairly healthy.
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So looking at it. if I choose a horse thats 11.0 for £10 thats £100 profit.
If in play the Odds shorten to half of that : Half : 5.5 then for trading at £20 lay you get back 10% of what you would have got if it won. Quarter : 2.74 then trading out £40 lay you get back 30% Eighth : 1.38 then trading £80 lay you get 60% I don't know enough about trading but Im thinking maybe looking at longer odds can more easily come into half and a quarter like 100.0 to 50.0 then 25.0 etc so trading out of these bigger prices would possibly be more profitable in the long run. Im thinking maybe there is a curve that gives the optimal trade amount for each Price I can get but Im thinking now it will boil down to knowing my strike rate for the different odds i can get. |
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I asked a Proffessional in the end.
The Answer was to Treat Traditional betting and Trading as two complete seperate entities. If you are good at picking winners then there is no need to trade but always keep records to look for an angle. Thanks anyway |