Steve Rogers the £5000 layer @3

italian ? went from cruising to beaten in one stride

cant win them all

What would be your explanation of the horses run roida, rarely been so confident of an in running bet only to see how it played out

horse is an out and out stayer and went no pace. was almost travelling too well

nah, something amiss for me

agree with duncan, quickened perfectly well off a slowish pace at Kempton

"g'day from sunny chester"

either sum1 knew it wouldnt get home or a daring lay went well.

It definitely wasn't anything to do with being outspeeded. He fell in a hole. He didn't stay on at one pace. Something was wrong with him.

someone put the work in sire 1-30 at 18f 0-7 at 19f also dam had not won over 16f someone took a chance so job well done

was the 2/1 layer psychic iyo?

they are big stats to oppose its all about opinions but id bet he had the same stats to lay when a horse seems to be going well and as we know they are not always right

'stayed on well' over same trip in Cesaerwitch

at the time he offered 2/1 odds on looked its price.

he didn't think so and he won, I only looked after the race as to why the horse ran like that as its unusual

its also unusual to have stats that obvious that we all didn't lay it in running but that's after the race I bet weve blown someones laying system but as I said its a awful lot of work to find them like that

know all
04 May 16 16:12

someone put the work in sire 1-30 at 18f 0-7 at 19f


Horseracebase has Montjeu @ 18f+ (Flat/AW)= 8/84 (10%) ROI@ BSP +38

the race wasn't 18+ it was 18 and 147yds so 18 and 19  and 18+ shows 3w from 62 if the race was 15f he could have won 12 from 48

Bulwark won the race 'for' Montjeu at 33/1. Mount Athos an unlucky 4th from a very wide draw, closing all the way. That's from 8 runners in the race before today.

Best when fresh horse innit.

very dangerous use of stats with samples like that

the stats I found after the race were very unusual and if you had one of them a day you could retire very early but as I said its as rare as hens teeth to get them so obvious but well done to that layer he knew his stuff and congratulations

the race wasn't 18+ it was 18 and 147yds


yes, but obviously you cant use stats @ 18f/19f to say it's a doubtful stayer if stats @ 20f+ dont say the same....if you find a 'stat' like that a day, you'll be selling the Big Issue much quicker than you'll be retiring tbh

montjeu was 1-8 in the race and this is a stat where the layer did his homework?

stats my harse..its a top class stayer that went out like a light.

Justification was another one of the 8. He was hampered on the bend in his year, and was staying on at the finish. RP comment aftarwards "he´s the type for the Queen Alexandra Stakes".

All his wins bar one have been on fast ground or AW. I don't think the ground was ideal today. Fast going and good gallop are likely his requirements.

ged montjeu is 1-11 in the queen alexandria too

To think winners at 2m ,winner of this given race from only 8 runners and a couple of other good efforts and then winners at 2m4f and even a winner of the queen alexandria from 11 starts yet there is supposed to be a sweet spot between 2m and 2m 5 1/2 where the progeny won't stay is just bonkers!

Agreed. Anyone can make stats fit psst results.

* past

it ran like it broke a blood vessel...not a non stayer.

Vet found no abnormalities, only reason I can think is the ground, got away with it off a much lower mark in a weaker race, but not today...I really hate the turf season.

Nothing to do with the trip/lacking stamina. 4 of his wins his rating 78 and  less. Other 2 wins 88 and less.  That's the rating of a decent horse no more.

A man with form/race reading skills with balls to take a punt. Unnatural and "suspect" to those who go from race to race pinching pennies with time adv...

so what in his form or the race upto 3f out was 'the man' acting on iyo?

...asking as someone who knows a little about form/racereading and has never enjoyedd time advantage btw

the horse has been improving rapidly..looked a top stayer last few runs...it went out like a light...not a normal wasnt good enough.

ProSniper's point is that the 5 grand layer need not have known the horse was going to go out like a light to want to lay a £10,000 to £5,000 about a horse in a race as hot as the Chester Cup, however well it might have been travelling at the time.

The layer might have reasoned that half a dozen other horses were travelling OK at the time too. And in a race like this the opposition might not collapse in a heap the way they do on the AW.

Whether he was right or wrong is not the point. He didn't need to know anything special to justify a decent punt AT THAT PRICE.

roida 04 May 16 15:24

lagging in 3rd 3 out and sum1 offers £5000 @3 all matched..100yds later drops out ..

ghostlygunner 04 May 16 15:25 

italian ? Cool went from cruising to beaten in one stride

--------------

Given the above two opening posts on this thread -

Bit of a longshot - But ...

What if he actually meant to BACK the horse - and hit the wrong side?

Mystery then solved.

Probably betting 100 yards in front of the "live video" players!

Someone with very fast pics,or maybe,just maybe he had an opinion!!!!!!!and not backing them as they cross the line,or laying them when they are tailed off I know,how strange is that. Or maybe he was on the chase,who knows

What if he'd had alot more on at 9/2 and was laying off ?

From the cross-examination of the hapless Detective Constable Kelly at the 2000 Old race-fixing trial of Glen Gill et al.:

Cross-examined by Jeremy Gompertz QC, representing Gill, Kelly admitted that when he began investigating the alleged race-fixing, he had little knowledge of racing or betting. "Did you understand the concept of value in betting?" Gompertz asked him. "I couldn't understand it," Kelly answered. "Your view," Gompertz continued, "is that only a lunatic or a fraudsman would oppose odds-on chances?" Kelly replied: "I would say that it would be somebody who either knew something or was inexperienced."


http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/general/police-officer-quizzed-on-betting-knowledge-637029.html

Let us be thankful that the spirit of DC Kelly sometimes finds its way onto here these days, rather than being wasted in the police force.

TRD still seething that ive got more than him and only play inside last 2f

May 4, 2016 -- 5:44PM, howard wrote:

Nothing to do with the trip/lacking stamina. 4 of his wins his rating 78 and

Overrated imo, form full of holes and poor horses as per my thoughts posted last night

Steve Rogers 7/2 fave

April 15 - rated 73 and beats a mid 60s rated horse a couple of lengths
May 15 - rated 78 and in receipt of a decent amount of weight is back in 5th beaten with the winer and second now rated in 90s but neither won another race since
June 15 - rated 78 beats Viking Storm receiving 6lb and rated 84, in third Cosette receiving 2lb now rated 57
July 15 - rated 83 finished third. Winner gives 6lb and now rated 94 but well beaten since
Sept 15 - rated 83 and beats Be Perfect who gave 7lb. Be Perfect rated 87 and well beaten on all starts since. 79 rated Rowleston Lass back in 3rd
Oct 15 - rated 87 runs 9th in Cesarewich. Quick Jack 3rd and 5lb better off here, Le Maitre Chat 6th and 6lb better off
Apr 16 - win AW race.....

Rated 94 here I just dont get the love

Nice one, Kipper.  You must have made loads laying it.  Congratulations.

May 4, 2016 -- 11:22PM, Rob_The_Bantam wrote:

Nice one, Kipper.

No, just lost backing others......

KipperRSA    Joined: 26 Nov 00
Replies: 382 04 May 16 23:20 
Overrated imo, form full of holes and poor horses as per my thoughts posted last night

but didnt lay?  wey aye yfdsc.

I layed pre-race due to the Kempton race he won. It seemed to me that even though he won well he was slow to pick up around the final bend when the race was starting to pick up pace. He also looked an out and out galloper (low head carraige). Two reasons to suggest Chester was not going to suit at all. Yes, he travelled well for a long way (just as at Kemp) but as soon as the pace quickened before the straight he was lost for toe. I think he will redeem his reputation at somewhere like Haydock/Doncaster.

no, im not a layer but pull a race apart looking for horses running at double figure odds who represent value. Small outlay, big return. Although the winner had some stunning form I couldnt have confidence he retained the same ability shown previously after a recent hurdles spin with hood fitted after a long lay off

Two reasons to suggest Chester was not going to suit at all.

he'd won on only previous start there


as soon as the pace quickened before the straight he was lost for toe

if that horse lost cos he was simply 'done for toe', i will walk from Perth to Plumpton with my bollox out

just seen this , what if he'd had 3k at 5.5 and was trying for 2k profit either way

If you didn't fancy the horse from the off, which would you rather lay - 3/1 at the gate, with all the potential problems the Chester Cup can offer still to come, or 2/1 after he's found a perfect position out of the stalls, held that position throughout and travelled like the winner 3f out.

2/1 looked skinny enough at the time plenty were still going well enough

Duncan:he also won at Kemp when, I took the view he lacked a change of gear-  he was now in with much classier horses and, again, I took a view, that he would need to, at some point, be it from the gates or later in the race show a change of gear, that imo, he wouldn't have. As for winning there: plenty of horses win at tracks that don't suit when they out class the opposition. As for your bollox- please spare the good people of Perth and Plumbton, and all those in between, of that sight. FAIRWEATHER : for the simple reason I explained above- ie I thought he may well lose the race at the gates - hindsight is 20-20 of course.

Hunty have you moved into your flat above the chip shop yet

Some good points on here from the guys against it. It really was run for horses with speed. If an out and out galloper  is on the snaff all the way to 2/3 out in a class handicap there is every chance you will be outpaced especially with a slow pace on a track like this because it's highly likely  the horses behind will have plenty left in the tank. As I said the ground was probably on the dead side for him too.

Anyone watching the race could see it wasn't done for speed. It went from the perfect position to finishing 12th beaten about 12 lengths. That is a horse dropping in a hole not being done for speed. No idea what the layer was doing and wouldn't find it that relevant. Could have been a back to lay, could have been a guesser, or a few other reasons.

Good reply by fashion fever. Everything looked better for the horse  EXCEPT the pace. If one bad factor can over rule several good you could have found a good lay especially at quite a bit shorter than SP.

asparagus , if something comes to light you will be right. If you run a middle distance horse in the July Cup and they go no pace until the 2f pole what's going to happen ?

Bear in mind Franny Norton said after the race it was the strangest Chester Cup he had ridden in. Slow even pace all the way.

Howard, if it's a slow even pace and you are in the perfect position with 2-3 furlongs to run, with solid consistent form and travelling very well you don't finish 12th getting beat 12 lengths imo. Whether something comes to light and whether it's put in the public domain is another matter. Obviously everyone entitled to their own opinion but for me the one thing it couldn't possibly be was a lack of speed causing him to get beat that far.

asparagus: The answer in your own post. It went from cruising along to beaten on the turn in no time at all. ie. he had horses, on the bridle all around him, that had a better turn of foot and went past him on his outside- done deal at Chester.

Enpassant, it's quite simple. If it was just a turn of foot you don't get beat 12 lengths, you get beat 2 or 3 (or maybe 4) lengths staying on at one pace. These were all stayers. Quite clearly it was more than that.

What if the going is not to your liking ? You can appear to be going well and then there's nothing there. Happens all the time. The difference with this race is you've got a lot of class handicappers close by. Yes you don't see such horses being passed by so many so quickly. But this is the Chester Cup and according to Norton a very odd race.  So expect to see odd things. My opinion is I don't expect to see this horse win a big handicap

I would keep an open mind as to winning a big handicap but it won't be at Chester.
asparagus: you do at Chester, if you lose your position at a crucial stage, as he did and imo, it was down to the horses lack of a change of gear in a slow race. He simply couldn't respond when the pace picked up and in a matter of strides his race was over-it is something that happens very regularly. For your premise to be correct all horses would need to share the exact same ability to quicken.

Yes chances are ( was ! ) a clever lay.  Because he thought one would beat it for toe. Pretty comfortable viewing then !

"The layer might have reasoned that half a dozen other horses were travelling OK at the time too. And in a race like this the opposition might not collapse in a heap the way they do on the AW"..."2/1 looked skinny enough at the time plenty were still going well enough"

An incredible oversight made by so many. The folding of the principal horse may have been unexpected even to the layer, but there's no more won if the horse is beaten a country mile..........instead of a comfortable couple of lengths..(expected)

trainer says it cramped up

horse a plodder. layer knew it.

big drifter pre race as well

Baldie knew, pushed it to 5-2 at lunchtime

No toe again at Kempton last night. ( 1.44 in-running ) Unkikely to win off that mark at 2m or a Chester Cup.

Horse is a dodge pot

Facts when did you come to that conclusion ? He has won more than a third of his races ( 6 from 17 ) Four were on ratings 78 or less. Other 2 up to 88. Running off 95 last night.