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lagging in 3rd 3 out and sum1 offers £5000 @3 all matched..100yds later drops out ..
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italian ?
 went from cruising to beaten in one stride |
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cant win them all
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What would be your explanation of the horses run roida, rarely been so confident of an in running bet only to see how it played out
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horse is an out and out stayer and went no pace. was almost travelling too well
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nah, something amiss for me
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agree with duncan, quickened perfectly well off a slowish pace at Kempton
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"g'day from sunny chester"
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either sum1 knew it wouldnt get home or a daring lay went well.
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It definitely wasn't anything to do with being outspeeded. He fell in a hole. He didn't stay on at one pace. Something was wrong with him.
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someone put the work in sire 1-30 at 18f 0-7 at 19f also dam had not won over 16f someone took a chance so job well done
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was the 2/1 layer psychic iyo?
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they are big stats to oppose its all about opinions but id bet he had the same stats to lay when a horse seems to be going well and as we know they are not always right
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'stayed on well' over same trip in Cesaerwitch
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at the time he offered 2/1 odds on looked its price.
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he didn't think so and he won, I only looked after the race as to why the horse ran like that as its unusual
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its also unusual to have stats that obvious that we all didn't lay it in running but that's after the race I bet weve blown someones laying system but as I said its a awful lot of work to find them like that
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know all
04 May 16 16:12 someone put the work in sire 1-30 at 18f 0-7 at 19f Horseracebase has Montjeu @ 18f+ (Flat/AW)= 8/84 (10%) ROI@ BSP +38 |
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the race wasn't 18+ it was 18 and 147yds so 18 and 19 and 18+ shows 3w from 62 if the race was 15f he could have won 12 from 48
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Bulwark won the race 'for' Montjeu at 33/1. Mount Athos an unlucky 4th from a very wide draw, closing all the way. That's from 8 runners in the race before today.
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Best when fresh horse innit.
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very dangerous use of stats with samples like that
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the stats I found after the race were very unusual and if you had one of them a day you could retire very early but as I said its as rare as hens teeth to get them so obvious but well done to that layer he knew his stuff and congratulations
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the race wasn't 18+ it was 18 and 147yds
yes, but obviously you cant use stats @ 18f/19f to say it's a doubtful stayer if stats @ 20f+ dont say the same....if you find a 'stat' like that a day, you'll be selling the Big Issue much quicker than you'll be retiring tbh |
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montjeu was 1-8 in the race and this is a stat where the layer did his homework?
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stats my harse..its a top class stayer that went out like a light.
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Justification was another one of the 8. He was hampered on the bend in his year, and was staying on at the finish. RP comment aftarwards "he´s the type for the Queen Alexandra Stakes".
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All his wins bar one have been on fast ground or AW. I don't think the ground was ideal today. Fast going and good gallop are likely his requirements.
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ged montjeu is 1-11 in the queen alexandria too
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To think winners at 2m ,winner of this given race from only 8 runners and a couple of other good efforts and then winners at 2m4f and even a winner of the queen alexandria from 11 starts yet there is supposed to be a sweet spot between 2m and 2m 5 1/2 where the progeny won't stay is just bonkers!
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Agreed. Anyone can make stats fit psst results.
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* past
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it ran like it broke a blood vessel...not a non stayer.
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Vet found no abnormalities, only reason I can think is the ground, got away with it off a much lower mark in a weaker race, but not today...I really hate the turf season.
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Nothing to do with the trip/lacking stamina. 4 of his wins his rating 78 and less. Other 2 wins 88 and less. That's the rating of a decent horse no more.
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A man with form/race reading skills with balls to take a punt. Unnatural and "suspect" to those who go from race to race pinching pennies with time adv...
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so what in his form or the race upto 3f out was 'the man' acting on iyo?
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...asking as someone who knows a little about form/racereading and has never enjoyedd time advantage btw
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the horse has been improving rapidly..looked a top stayer last few runs...it went out like a light...not a normal wasnt good enough.
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ProSniper's point is that the 5 grand layer need not have known the horse was going to go out like a light to want to lay a £10,000 to £5,000 about a horse in a race as hot as the Chester Cup, however well it might have been travelling at the time.
The layer might have reasoned that half a dozen other horses were travelling OK at the time too. And in a race like this the opposition might not collapse in a heap the way they do on the AW. Whether he was right or wrong is not the point. He didn't need to know anything special to justify a decent punt AT THAT PRICE. |