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stridingedge
24 Apr 16 13:39
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Date Joined: 14 Sep 10
| Topic/replies: 61,267 | Blogger: stridingedge's blog
Been one of his quieter spells but the turf going has seen a lot of soft in the description and there is a definite correlation with the number of winners and spells of soft or better ground.

3 runners at musselburgh today.

The opening mdn on the card sees the green on debut runner huntlaw.Trainer has a very decent record here with mdns and this is valid for 3yo's in the 3yo+ races, also plenty of once raced green runners have been sent here to good effect on their 2nd run (subsequent 80+ runners too).

2:30 surewecan been a frustrating sort not managed to win since it's mdn days in july 14, perhaps today could be the day to be on now back on turf rated 65, it's been supported it's last 3 runs and either side of a hampered effort at kempton has gone very close. certainly not one to trust too much but this could be it's best chance of the turf season here.

In the 3:30 Freight train looks like it needs further than this now to me, i think others will have too much toe for it and don't fancy it today.


Verdict the mdn runner around 7/1 plus Huntlaw makes the most appeal, Surewecan would certainly not be any sort of surprise but it's just not the type i want to be siding with at the price and Freight Train just doesn't appeal in this given race.

Obviously Freight Train will probably make a copmplete mug of me and run the best race but we shall see...
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Report madhatters September 17, 2016 12:50 PM BST
2 of interest
Isharah going up
Neg is it carries Skinto nap Grin
Whitman with B1
GL
Report madhatters September 17, 2016 12:52 PM BST
Interesting analysis of jockey champ contenders in RP
Under 5/1 on run in on past history worth a look, above not
SDS at Catt
Report stridingedge September 17, 2016 1:46 PM BST
Interesting book of rides for SDS hatters, not seen him on this many for a while for yard.Catterick is a strong track on many profiles.

Happy to let the 2yo's through as usual, thought Apamurra at the prices was the most interesting looking into it's last 2 runs in mdn and nvc company but there is nothing strong doing a profile score with one coming into a race this class on nursery debut without a win in the book.

3:10 Ayr Haley Bop, current price 11.0 is strong on profile and I have to give it a go today to follow up it's class 3 win last week. At this time of the year these class risers turned out again pretty quickly have done well. Another plus is this type with not so much experience at this class later in the season returning to it after a win and the fact it's won 4 races scores well going into this sort of race at the back end of it's 3yo campaign. There is no issue with the ground, I actually think this one really likes a bit of juice and it's the sort of price meeting a decent profile that I have to have a stab at whilst respecting the top 2 in the market as potentially having plenty more to come.

4:10 Catterick Isharah, current price 4.2. Very good profile stats over all scoring highly on all the usual groups i look at. We have an unexposed 3yo stepping up to the farthest distance it's ever gone at the back end of the season, always a good starting point. No negative not having won so far in current turf season and not having won a hcp yet is also of no concern.

This one has a decent profile with regards being partnered by SDS too...

The general outline of a 3yo handicapper in a class 4 race on turf that's never sen a distance so far as today's race for SDS. 11-31 (35.5%).If you look at this race profile outline when SDS gets on one of these un raced at the distance for the first time you get 10-15 (66.7%) with 6-9 of these not having won since their mdns.

I wouldn't be totally surprised to see whitman go better today but ft blinkers are not a positive in these races especially this sort of class (not winning a 3 lto up into a 2 in itself has not been a big negative), it's not has so many runs at the trip and has come down the ratings a lot now, the main interest for me is the track which sees some big runs at big prices and they aren't always easily explained, including plenty for the Sheikh.On balance I have left it and hope i don't regret it at a big price today!
Report stridingedge September 17, 2016 3:14 PM BST
Game race from hayley bop beaten by one of the progressives.
Report stridingedge September 17, 2016 3:44 PM BST
This Isharah price Devil
Report stridingedge September 17, 2016 4:24 PM BST
Isharah poor effort there after bustled up from wide draw, none for SDS from his MJ mounts Sad
Report stridingedge September 17, 2016 4:45 PM BST
    date        course        class        selection        BFSP        pos        rnrs        dist        rce rtrn        tot rtrn        staked        ROI   
                                                                                               
    24/04/2016        Musselburgh        5        Huntlaw        6.49        1        6        nk        £52.16        £52.16        £10.00        521.55%   
    27/04/2016        Pontefract        3        Deodoro        4.86        4        5        12.5l        -£10.00        £42.16        £20.00        210.78%   
    27/04/2016        Brighton        5        Aleko        4.78        2        6        sh hd        -£10.00        £32.16        £30.00        107.18%   
    02/05/2016        Beverley        5        Ravenhoe        6.29        9        12        11.5l        -£10.00        £22.16        £40.00        55.39%   
    02/05/2016        Beverley        4        Freight Train        8.97        4        10        3.75l        -£10.00        £12.16        £50.00        24.31%   
    07/05/2016        Haydock        3        Bathos        12.66        6        12        5.25l        -£10.00        £2.16        £60.00        3.59%   
    10/05/2016        Beverley        5        Autumn Blossom        7.20        9        10        13.5l        -£10.00        -£7.85        £70.00        -11.21%   
    10/05/2016        Beverley        6        Scarpeta        2.47        1        11        0.75l        £13.97        £6.12        £80.00        7.65%   
    10/05/2016        Chepstow        6        Regal Monarch        4.43        1        11        1.25l        £32.59        £38.71        £90.00        43.01%   
    13/05/2016        York        4        Second Serve        7.81        2        12        0.75l        -£10.00        £28.71        £100.00        28.71%   
    18/05/2016        Ayr        4        Book Of Poetry        5.75        6        6        22l        -£10.00        £18.71        £110.00        17.00%   
    18/05/2016        Bath        4        Mistime        9.89        3        9        4.5l        -£10.00        £8.71        £120.00        7.25%   
    19/05/2016        Goodwood        4        Bathos        9.60        1        10        0.5l        £81.70        £90.41        £130.00        69.54%   
    19/05/2016        Goodwood        1        Dessertoflife        12.65        8        9        24l        -£10.00        £80.41        £140.00        57.43%   
    19/05/2016        Sandown        3        New Caledonia        5.48        4        6        2.25l        -£10.00        £70.41        £150.00        46.94%   
    27/05/2016        Haydock        4        Huntlaw        12.47        11        13        7.75l        -£10.00        £60.41        £160.00        37.75%   
    28/05/2016        Chester        3        Zand        13.52        11        12        12.5l        -£10.00        £50.41        £170.00        29.65%   
    28/05/2016        Chester        4        Four Mile Beach        22.20        8        8        21l        -£10.00        £40.41        £180.00        22.45%   
    03/06/2016        Epsom        2        Master Of Finance        12.78        10        10        17l        -£10.00        £30.41        £190.00        16.00%   
    03/06/2016        Catterick        4        Hawatif        3.07        3        6        0.5l        -£10.00        £20.41        £200.00        10.20%   
    03/06/2016        Goodwood        5        Montataire        3.90        4        9        3.25l        -£10.00        £10.41        £210.00        4.95%   
    04/06/2016        Musselburgh        3        Huntlaw        8.61        8        11        9l        -£10.00        £0.41        £220.00        0.18%   
    04/06/2016        Epsom        2        Yorkidding        8.59        16        17        75l        -£10.00        -£9.60        £230.00        -4.17%   
    06/06/2016        Pontefract        4        Renfrew Street        4.20        1        6        2.5l        £30.40        £20.81        £240.00        8.67%   
    09/06/2016        Newbury        5        Shadow Game        9.46        4        13        3.75l        -£10.00        £10.81        £250.00        4.32%   
    09/06/2016        Yarmouth        4        Miniaturist        4.31        6        9        12l        -£10.00        £0.81        £260.00        0.31%   
    09/06/2016        Haydock        4        Plagiarism        11.00        3        8        0.75l        -£10.00        -£9.20        £270.00        -3.41%   
    11/06/2015        Sandown        2        Kings Pavilion        7.82        3        9        2.5l        -£10.00        -£19.20        £280.00        -6.86%   
    23/06/2016        Newmarket (J)        2        Plagiarism        11.00        7        8        7.25l        -£10.00        -£29.20        £290.00        -10.07%   
    24/06/2016        Yarmouth        4        Space Mountain        3.65        4        4        24l        -£10.00        -£39.20        £300.00        -13.07%   
    27/06/2016        Pontefract        5        Triassic        4.90        9        12        36l        -£10.00        -£49.20        £310.00        -15.87%   
    02/07/2016        Haydock        3        Champagne City        9.28        3        5        2.5l        -£10.00        -£59.20        £320.00        -18.50%   
    02/07/2016        Beverley        5        Bridal March        3.72        3        9        3.25l        -£10.00        -£69.20        £330.00        -20.97%   
    02/07/2016        Beverley        5        Jintshi        4.50        2        9        0.25l        -£10.00        -£79.20        £340.00        -23.29%   
    02/07/2016        Beverley        5        Ravenhoe        15.00        1        9        1l        £133.00        £53.81        £350.00        15.37%   
    02/07/2016        Carlisle        5        Freight Train        7.91        2        7        nk        -£10.00        £43.81        £360.00        12.17%   
    02/07/2016        Carlisle        4        Eqleem        6.65        6        8        10l        -£10.00        £33.81        £370.00        9.14%   
    02/07/2016        Carlisle        4        Rosamaria        6.80        5        7        7l        -£10.00        £23.81        £380.00        6.26%   
    07/07/2016        Newmarket (J)        1        Yalta        8.22        7        9        7l        -£10.00        £13.81        £390.00        3.54%   
    07/07/2016        Newmarket (J)        2        Riflescope        25.16        15        20        7.5l        -£10.00        £3.81        £400.00        0.95%   
    07/07/2016        Epsom        5        Book Of Poetry        7.35        5        6        11l        -£10.00        -£6.19        £410.00        -1.51%   
    08/07/2016        Ascot        3        Montataire        3.13        1        8        0.5l        £20.24        £14.04        £420.00        3.34%   
    08/07/2016        Newmarket (J)        1        Kilmah        7.03        4        10        0.75l        -£10.00        £4.04        £430.00        0.94%   
    08/07/2016        Newmarket (J)        2        Welford*        35.06        6        13        4.75l        -£5.00        -£0.96        £435.00        -0.22%   
    08/07/2016        Newmarket (J)        2        Ode To Evening*        53.36        1        13        0.5l        £248.71        £247.75        £440.00        56.31%   
    08/07/2016        Ascot        3        Haley Bop        8.59        6        8        6l        -£10.00        £237.75        £450.00        52.83%   
    08/07/2016        Musselburgh        5        Dasheen        5.16        9        10        13l        -£10.00        £227.75        £460.00        49.51%   
    09/07/2016        York        3        Vive Ma Fille        12.80        3        10        3.75l        -£10.00        £217.75        £470.00        46.33%   
    09/07/2016        York        2        Kings Pavilion        11.20        10        15        8l        -£10.00        £207.75        £480.00        43.28%   
    14/07/2016        Leicester        4        Aleko        13.78        5        5        8.25l        -£10.00        £197.75        £490.00        40.36%   
    14/07/2016        Hamilton        4        Templier        10.00        5        6        8l        -£10.00        £187.75        £500.00        37.55%   
    14/07/2016        Epsom        4        Rosy Morning        2.89        8        8        11.5l        -£10.00        £177.75        £510.00        34.85%   
    16/07/2016        Ripon        4        Climax        4.50        4        10        2l        -£10.00        £167.75        £520.00        32.26%   
    16/07/2016        Ripon        2        Welford        14.32        9        14        9l        -£10.00        £157.75        £530.00        29.76%   
    16/07/2016        Ripon        4        Huntlaw        6.00        1        8        1.75l        £47.50        £205.25        £540.00        38.01%   
    21/07/2016        Sandown        5        Furiant        6.60        6        9        4l        -£10.00        £195.25        £550.00        35.50%   
    22/07/2016        Ascot        2        Yorkidding        8.62        1        6        0.75l        £72.39        £267.64        £560.00        47.79%   
    23/07/2016        Ascot        1        Frankuus        7.35        3        9        0.5l        -£10.00        £257.64        £570.00        45.20%   
    23/07/2016        Ascot        2        Daawa        4.70        3        6        0.5l        -£10.00        £247.64        £580.00        42.70%   
    23/07/2016        Ascot        4        Second Serve        7.04        4        5        12.5l        -£10.00        £237.64        £590.00        40.28%   
    23/07/2016        Lingfield        6        Togetherwecan        26.20        8        9        7.5l        -£10.00        £227.64        £600.00        37.94%   
    26/07/2016        Goodwood        2        Revolutionist        12.88        15        17        22l        -£10.00        £217.64        £610.00        35.68%   
    27/07/2016        Goodwood        2        Dessertoflife        10.50        6        10        7l        -£10.00        £207.64        £620.00        33.49%   
    27/07/2016        Goodwood        2        Kiltara*        16.71        7        10        12l        -£5.00        £202.64        £625.00        32.42%   
    29/07/2016        Goodwood        1        Buratino*        16.91        8        9        4l        -£5.00        £197.64        £630.00        31.37%   
    30/07/2016        Goodwood        2        Beaverbrook*        21.76        7        12        3l        -£5.00        £192.64        £635.00        30.34%   
    30/07/2016        Goodwood        2        Soldier In Action*        13.63        12        12        44l        -£5.00        £187.64        £640.00        29.32%   
    02/08/2016        Catterick        4        Tartan Bute        4.97        2        6        0.75l        -£10.00        £177.64        £650.00        27.33%   
    06/08/2016        Newmarket (J)        2        Sennockian Star        6.67        3        8        3l        -£10.00        £167.64        £660.00        25.40%   
    12/08/2016        Newmarket (J)        4        Highly Sprung        4.54        1        7        2l        £33.63        £201.27        £670.00        30.04%   
    12/08/2016        Catterick        4        Climax        4.70        4        5        3.75l        -£10.00        £191.27        £680.00        28.13%   
    14/08/2016        Pontefract        3        Cape Speed        9.05        4        5        14.75l        -£10.00        £181.27        £690.00        26.27%   
    17/08/2016        Carlisle        5        Rainbow Rebel        5.80        1        7        3.25l        £45.60        £226.87        £700.00        32.41%   
    20/08/2016        York        2        Regal Monarch        9.01        2        13        2.75l        -£10.00        £216.87        £710.00        30.55%   
    24/08/2016        Musselburgh        5        Furiant        12.09        5        7        5.5l        -£10.00        £206.87        £720.00        28.73%   
    24/08/2016        Musselburgh        6        Templier        3.55        1        7        0.5l        £24.23        £231.10        £730.00        31.66%   
    25/08/2016        Musselburgh        3        Whitman        9.51        5        8        3.25l        -£10.00        £221.10        £740.00        29.88%   
    28/08/2016        Beverley        5        Dominating        6.69        4        4        5.75l        -£10.00        £211.10        £750.00        28.15%   
    28/08/2016        Beverley        5        Yorkindred Spirit        6.22        5        6        9.5l        -£10.00        £201.10        £760.00        26.46%   
    28/08/2016        Beverley        6        Triassic        7.06        6        7        6.75l        -£10.00        £191.10        £770.00        24.82%   
    02/09/2016        Ascot        3        Renfrew Street        3.50        2        7        1.25l        -£10.00        £181.10        £780.00        23.22%   
    02/09/2016        Musselburgh        5        Zamindo        12.18        7        8        31l        -£10.00        £171.10        £790.00        21.66%   
    14/09/2016        Beverley        4        Welford        6.80        3        5        2.75l        -£10.00        £161.10        £800.00        20.14%   
    14/09/2016        Yarmouth        4        Highly Sprung        4.30        1        8        5l        £31.35        £192.45        £810.00        23.76%   
    17/09/2016        Ayr        2        Haley Bop        14.00        2        14        2.25l        -£10.00        £182.45        £820.00        22.25%   
    17/09/2016        Catterick        4        Isharah        3.82        6        11        6.25l        -£10.00        £172.45        £830.00        20.78%   


No turf runners till Tuesday and I’m away for a couple of weeks so won’t be around to post.
Report madhatters September 17, 2016 8:22 PM BST
Poor show from Ish
Knew Skinto would drag it down Grin
5's place for Slim ok
Report madhatters September 17, 2016 9:34 PM BST
Enjoy the break btw Grin
Hope you don't miss all the biggies Shocked
Report deadbrain59 September 18, 2016 7:53 AM BST
been looking@ cape cross breeding line rated 100+MischiefMischief
Report madhatters September 20, 2016 11:45 AM BST
Raven to fly home at local track
Report madhatters September 20, 2016 8:13 PM BST
Ze raven came home to roost Grin
Report madhatters September 21, 2016 11:16 AM BST
Keep the pot ticking over till SE back
Renfrew right up our street
Calm before tomorrows storm
Report dod September 21, 2016 1:49 PM BST
Renfrew street has a good chance on some of its form but i have dodged it which probably means it will win but last run admitedly stepped up in class was a bad run but perhaps longer trip will help
Report deadbrain59 September 22, 2016 9:44 AM BST
ive got a long wait till oct 22nd.GrinGrin
Report madhatters September 22, 2016 12:19 PM BST
Renfrew st up the wrong avenue
Stride would have strode all over me with 3yo in 3yo+

Nepeta todays pin
Can't ignore the 2yo's all the time
Tickometer +5.2

Some old faves out but can't see much change to warrant interest
Cue hatful Grin

Put your feet up DB & i'll wake you then Grin
Report madhatters September 22, 2016 5:37 PM BST
What do i lknow Grin
Hunty likes it out front
Nepeta must have had too much catnip
+4.2
Report madhatters September 23, 2016 11:23 AM BST
Trio in last in silver C
Leap of faith required with the enigma
Swerve day
Report dod September 23, 2016 11:24 AM BST
not touching his today GL to those that do
Report grumpyjim September 23, 2016 12:14 PM BST
is M J .. HAVING A BAD TIME IN REAL TERMS .. ..or are we expecting too much .. from so many runners .. so many shortish prices not in frame . from around 5/1 and less ..
best so far  ,,,,,has been ew acc  ,,,beat by one  .... a good few times  expected  around these prices ..  ..?
used to catch a few some months but this is poorest ever ..  will start watching ONLY   .. FOR REST OF THIS CAMPAIGN .. TOO LATE YESTERDAY  ,WINNERS TO SALVAGE ..ANYTHING .. 20/1 AND 10/1  ..... LOVELY BUT TOO LATE NEARING TEA TIME ....?
like some businesses .. as the family creep in ............... it gets destroyed in 10 years  or so .. seen it happen so often ...
example .. Mr Hannon  ....borrows a ...tie for the presentation .. yesterday ..    was it not expected ..?...  .as accessed   ..  not going to win ..  strange one  .. thats showed more than expected on course ..?  fairly good prize money I think ..Jockeys make some blunders .. like G Baker yesterday off pace too far ..
Report blackbarn September 24, 2016 11:16 AM BST
Posted on another fred.  Thought it might amuse MJ fans on here.......

Here is an interesting list.......

Situation
Region

Your Guide

Loyalty
Seniority
Independance
Fair
Blue Sky

Vicious
Heavy
Medicine
Electric Shock
Cured
Cups

Sneak!!!

A random selection of Hamdan Al Maktoum horses trained by Mark Johnson, translated from the Arabic into EnglishCool
Report madhatters September 24, 2016 11:56 AM BST
Interesting set of names Barny
Mostly nonsensical it seems
But... having seen some used by others maybe not so daft
Always try to work out how the Queens ones were named
Some weird ones there too

Anyways busyness
Monty progressive so worth a chance
Sixth Sense on the comeback trail, was classy, decent price
Rainbow shown can do all types but too short at mo
GL
Report madhatters September 24, 2016 3:22 PM BST
Banging in the 2yo's
Report madhatters September 24, 2016 3:32 PM BST
Like buses 33's Shocked
Report deadbrain59 September 24, 2016 3:33 PM BST
made all
Report deadbrain59 September 24, 2016 3:46 PM BST
celastation made all chester 10/1
Report madhatters September 24, 2016 6:03 PM BST
Managed to skate over 40/1+ ISP worth of 2yo Sad
Not my bag 2yo's Grin F..ing should be
SE will be turning over in his tent tho

Rainbow showed its true colours to save the day 3.8
+6 ticking
Report madhatters September 24, 2016 7:31 PM BST
60 bfsp from 5 wins
Minus 8 losers
Blind back day = +52 Grin
Report madhatters September 25, 2016 1:20 PM BST
Handy looking 2yo Derby entrant - watcher
Kings Pav to drop back in class is holding todays groat
GL
Report madhatters September 25, 2016 2:35 PM BST
Piper blew its own trumpet from the front Grin
Report madhatters September 25, 2016 4:55 PM BST
Might as well have stayed in the pavillion
+5
Report madhatters September 26, 2016 11:41 AM BST
Dasher today
Speculative
3yo+ an SE neg
Ham 3yo's a neg
Heavy ground to throw up some improvement 10's
GL
Report madhatters September 27, 2016 11:35 AM BST
Needed a lot more dash Grin
Quiet next few days - 1 tomorrow
+4
Report madhatters September 30, 2016 11:22 AM BST
Bit too much of a jump for Sprung today ?
Fireglow to burn them off with extra distance has todays hopeful tick
Report madhatters September 30, 2016 6:19 PM BST
Nose away from a good tick
+3
Report madhatters October 1, 2016 1:01 PM BST
Haley to bop them on nose
Dalek leap of faith with geld, break & being one of Johnstons

Come back Stride Grin
Report madhatters October 1, 2016 7:50 PM BST
Persisted in the 3yo+
Flop
Dalek in another universe
+1
Report deadbrain59 October 3, 2016 7:39 AM BST
the last lion has a rpr rating of 118
Report madhatters October 3, 2016 12:56 PM BST
Kelvin to get first flat win after knocking on door
Rainbow number 5 up in class?
GL
Report stridingedge October 3, 2016 1:56 PM BST
Kept the fires stoked in my absence hatters Wink

looking back through the runners wouldn't have been many plays, Huntlaw would have been a strong pick with the 2 to 3 class drop in September (now 10-32 stat for these, ala Haley Bop page 36) wouldn't have had similar qualifier Dawaa over 7f (have a hunch it would be better over further now) but might have had a go at Renfrew Street at that sort of price.

the last lion G1 success was a bit of a shock!
Report stridingedge October 3, 2016 1:57 PM BST
*The huntlaw stat for 3yo+hcps
Report deadbrain59 October 4, 2016 6:39 AM BST
stars has a 109 rating ,c2 leic.Plain
Report madhatters October 4, 2016 10:25 AM BST
Welcome back SE
Keys are over there Grin
Did me best to get a profit but ended -1
Cple of posters would have made the difference
Thought KH was going to hang on
Thats life as they say Grin
Report madhatters October 4, 2016 10:48 AM BST
Not a fan of Best RPR DB
Could be years ago
Stars been busy
Think a cple others may hold back the sea

Jessica stepping up today has potential in Hcap deb
In the dreaded 3yo+ tho that seems doomed Grin
GL
Report stridingedge October 4, 2016 12:54 PM BST
Unlucky yesterday with Kelvin Hall hatters.

Aqdameya, yard has sent 20 2yo debutants over this CD (as always in my DB going back to 2003) and 5 have managed to win, it's a small sample so nothing to get carried away with but still perhaps something to keep an eye on (winners were Parthenon 4.38,Leqqaa 4.28,Abishena 22.51,Alta Lilea 6.6,Muqaawel 11.0 with a couple of others running well for the place at prices)

Queen Celeste, Class 6 nurseries are not usually a good sign (1-26) but this horse did at least win a novice race in june showing plenty of early over the minimum. You can often forgive a shocker or two with the older handicappers if taken away from their optimum but this one just looks like it's lost it's way and this profile has not thrown up winners at prices in nurseries, blinkers ft shoved on too not a plus for this yard.Drawn to attack but backing this profile would not have yielded in the past and it's not one i could put forward.

Masham Star class droppers into this level not been a positive sign in nurseries neither has having a lot of experience in the class or higher already in this grade( at odds with 3yo's which then often put this to good use in decent hcps), the manner of the win on fast ground would also be a niggle for me on today's likely dead surface and that race has only seen one winner (of a class 4) emerge from 19 subsequent starts.This could well be one to leave until next term now when going up even a bit further in trip.

Jessica Jo today, could only find 7 runners that were going into their first hcp over 12f without a win (3yo's in 3yo+). 2 actually won but they were very easily found at 6/4 and 7/4 in the market and it's not one I'd think would be neglected if expected today.

Stars Over The Sea Had a great season back on the flat, for me it looks one that may need a bit of respite now from the handicapper this on paper though a smaller field is still a tough looking assignment on the average rating's and a few look potentially less exposed these conditions, whilst it wouldn't be a massive shock on balance I think the price is about what it should be.

Just Pour Nous Just can't get too excited about this one. Many will probably think this is exactly the type that could suddenly bounce back but there's no evidence of this in my DB for a 3yo handicapper. The ground may help it's cause and of course the class drop is quite pronounced but profiling similar has not yielded anything and this one has just not looked interested (2 runs back just didn't go a yard from the off and last time was not much better).

Could be egg on the face day at some of these prices but I can only go on a positive profile or a hunch about the horse (of course both ideal together), just don't have anything strong on these today.
Report madhatters October 5, 2016 12:09 PM BST
Nice write ups SE
Well left Grin
3yo+ does seem to have the monkey on their backs this year

Not a lot to aim at next cple days
Give Lonely a sniff
Back to turf, class & dist
Wide open
Report stridingedge October 5, 2016 12:41 PM BST
Yes the 3yo's in the better class hcps 4 up to 2 have noticeably under performed hatters, kept waiting for the pick up but they never really flowed. Nothing on today's nursery runner profile wise (also no positives from yard having only 1 runner that day) and I have no real opinion of it as an individual so another sit out.
Report deadbrain59 October 5, 2016 5:30 PM BST
38 losers and countingSurprisedSurprised
Report McCoy Carp October 6, 2016 12:44 PM BST
45 now. How does a trainer of his stature manage to have horrendous losing runs like this which other top class trainers seem to avoid? What is going on?
Report stridingedge October 6, 2016 12:53 PM BST
With reference to tomorrow's runners, i'm still trying top work out where that Yalta Goodwood run came from Confused
Report McCoy Carp October 6, 2016 12:58 PM BST
I backed Kelvin Hall - very frustrating - but got a free £25 bet off of Coral as it was only beaten a head Happy
Report stridingedge October 6, 2016 1:18 PM BST
Yes hatters had a pop at that one, unlucky McCoy. Cry
Report McCoy Carp October 6, 2016 1:22 PM BST
Haven't been on here much, as I haven't had a bet with BF for ages - half the time The Sportsbook won't take a bet and I just cannot seem to win on the exchange - but after having a horrendous run of it June and July, August and September were much better Happy
Report stridingedge October 6, 2016 1:32 PM BST
Glad to hear it Happy
Report madhatters October 6, 2016 1:40 PM BST
I wouldn't personally put MJ in the top class bracket McCoy
More like the Jonjo enigma zone with you riding Grin
Thats why we trying to work out the on days
Report McCoy Carp October 6, 2016 1:55 PM BST
Laugh
Report stridingedge October 6, 2016 1:58 PM BST
The hot spells not been as hot as usual this season, the substantial cold spells are always inevitable with this barn as are the numerous runners falling out the back of the screen Grin
Report deadbrain59 October 7, 2016 7:46 AM BST
51 on the bounceMischiefMischief
Report deadbrain59 October 7, 2016 9:13 AM BST
will play yalta 1.35.
Report madhatters October 7, 2016 11:52 AM BST
Ifs & buts today as usual
Selection pack of jocks too
Fireglow consistent for me
Drop to H'cap
York one of worst courses tho
GL with the shaky 105's
Report deadbrain59 October 7, 2016 1:50 PM BST
comedy 11.4 broke a bad run.
Report madhatters October 7, 2016 1:51 PM BST
No joke that one Grin
Report dibdob October 7, 2016 9:39 PM BST
Last MJ bet of the year for me and it's all about the Fox tomorrow in the Cesarewitch. Been on my radar for this race since its 2nd here last year. Dropped down the ratings although another pound or 2 would have been nice. From this year has been okay, but more importantly it has shown there is still an appetite for racing despite being 8 now. Course and distance form are all there, draw is fine, going a non issue. Lets just hope Fanning doesn't co
Report dibdob October 7, 2016 9:48 PM BST
ck it up again.

22's on here and 16/1 with the books is plenty generous as I can't see it out of the places. Will back it early doors e/w tomorrow and then watch to see if the money comes again like last year. If it does then I will get on huge with a spread bet. Haven't had a bet for 6 weeks waiting for this one so should it all play out I will be going big!
Report dod October 8, 2016 9:39 AM BST
I like Rich and Famous in the 3.10 york plenty of previous winners to beat but really liked how it won last time and not a bad price.
Report madhatters October 8, 2016 11:30 AM BST
Monty to get back to form
York an ew shout
Bear going up in dist
GL
Report deadbrain59 October 8, 2016 1:00 PM BST
mystic.GrinGrin
Report dibdob October 8, 2016 4:10 PM BST
Drift on Oriental fox, so I've pulled out. Saver on Grumeti
Report stridingedge October 9, 2016 5:09 PM BST
    date        course        class        selection        BFSP        pos        rnrs        dist        rce rtrn        tot rtrn        staked        ROI   
                                                                                               
    24/04/2016        Musselburgh        5        Huntlaw        6.49        1        6        nk        £52.16        £52.16        £10.00        521.55%   
    27/04/2016        Pontefract        3        Deodoro        4.86        4        5        12.5l        -£10.00        £42.16        £20.00        210.78%   
    27/04/2016        Brighton        5        Aleko        4.78        2        6        sh hd        -£10.00        £32.16        £30.00        107.18%   
    02/05/2016        Beverley        5        Ravenhoe        6.29        9        12        11.5l        -£10.00        £22.16        £40.00        55.39%   
    02/05/2016        Beverley        4        Freight Train        8.97        4        10        3.75l        -£10.00        £12.16        £50.00        24.31%   
    07/05/2016        Haydock        3        Bathos        12.66        6        12        5.25l        -£10.00        £2.16        £60.00        3.59%   
    10/05/2016        Beverley        5        Autumn Blossom        7.20        9        10        13.5l        -£10.00        -£7.85        £70.00        -11.21%   
    10/05/2016        Beverley        6        Scarpeta        2.47        1        11        0.75l        £13.97        £6.12        £80.00        7.65%   
    10/05/2016        Chepstow        6        Regal Monarch        4.43        1        11        1.25l        £32.59        £38.71        £90.00        43.01%   
    13/05/2016        York        4        Second Serve        7.81        2        12        0.75l        -£10.00        £28.71        £100.00        28.71%   
    18/05/2016        Ayr        4        Book Of Poetry        5.75        6        6        22l        -£10.00        £18.71        £110.00        17.00%   
    18/05/2016        Bath        4        Mistime        9.89        3        9        4.5l        -£10.00        £8.71        £120.00        7.25%   
    19/05/2016        Goodwood        4        Bathos        9.60        1        10        0.5l        £81.70        £90.41        £130.00        69.54%   
    19/05/2016        Goodwood        1        Dessertoflife        12.65        8        9        24l        -£10.00        £80.41        £140.00        57.43%   
    19/05/2016        Sandown        3        New Caledonia        5.48        4        6        2.25l        -£10.00        £70.41        £150.00        46.94%   
    27/05/2016        Haydock        4        Huntlaw        12.47        11        13        7.75l        -£10.00        £60.41        £160.00        37.75%   
    28/05/2016        Chester        3        Zand        13.52        11        12        12.5l        -£10.00        £50.41        £170.00        29.65%   
    28/05/2016        Chester        4        Four Mile Beach        22.20        8        8        21l        -£10.00        £40.41        £180.00        22.45%   
    03/06/2016        Epsom        2        Master Of Finance        12.78        10        10        17l        -£10.00        £30.41        £190.00        16.00%   
    03/06/2016        Catterick        4        Hawatif        3.07        3        6        0.5l        -£10.00        £20.41        £200.00        10.20%   
    03/06/2016        Goodwood        5        Montataire        3.90        4        9        3.25l        -£10.00        £10.41        £210.00        4.95%   
    04/06/2016        Musselburgh        3        Huntlaw        8.61        8        11        9l        -£10.00        £0.41        £220.00        0.18%   
    04/06/2016        Epsom        2        Yorkidding        8.59        16        17        75l        -£10.00        -£9.60        £230.00        -4.17%   
    06/06/2016        Pontefract        4        Renfrew Street        4.20        1        6        2.5l        £30.40        £20.81        £240.00        8.67%   
    09/06/2016        Newbury        5        Shadow Game        9.46        4        13        3.75l        -£10.00        £10.81        £250.00        4.32%   
    09/06/2016        Yarmouth        4        Miniaturist        4.31        6        9        12l        -£10.00        £0.81        £260.00        0.31%   
    09/06/2016        Haydock        4        Plagiarism        11.00        3        8        0.75l        -£10.00        -£9.20        £270.00        -3.41%   
    11/06/2015        Sandown        2        Kings Pavilion        7.82        3        9        2.5l        -£10.00        -£19.20        £280.00        -6.86%   
    23/06/2016        Newmarket (J)        2        Plagiarism        11.00        7        8        7.25l        -£10.00        -£29.20        £290.00        -10.07%   
    24/06/2016        Yarmouth        4        Space Mountain        3.65        4        4        24l        -£10.00        -£39.20        £300.00        -13.07%   
    27/06/2016        Pontefract        5        Triassic        4.90        9        12        36l        -£10.00        -£49.20        £310.00        -15.87%   
    02/07/2016        Haydock        3        Champagne City        9.28        3        5        2.5l        -£10.00        -£59.20        £320.00        -18.50%   
    02/07/2016        Beverley        5        Bridal March        3.72        3        9        3.25l        -£10.00        -£69.20        £330.00        -20.97%   
    02/07/2016        Beverley        5        Jintshi        4.50        2        9        0.25l        -£10.00        -£79.20        £340.00        -23.29%   
    02/07/2016        Beverley        5        Ravenhoe        15.00        1        9        1l        £133.00        £53.81        £350.00        15.37%   
    02/07/2016        Carlisle        5        Freight Train        7.91        2        7        nk        -£10.00        £43.81        £360.00        12.17%   
    02/07/2016        Carlisle        4        Eqleem        6.65        6        8        10l        -£10.00        £33.81        £370.00        9.14%   
    02/07/2016        Carlisle        4        Rosamaria        6.80        5        7        7l        -£10.00        £23.81        £380.00        6.26%   
    07/07/2016        Newmarket (J)        1        Yalta        8.22        7        9        7l        -£10.00        £13.81        £390.00        3.54%   
    07/07/2016        Newmarket (J)        2        Riflescope        25.16        15        20        7.5l        -£10.00        £3.81        £400.00        0.95%   
    07/07/2016        Epsom        5        Book Of Poetry        7.35        5        6        11l        -£10.00        -£6.19        £410.00        -1.51%   
    08/07/2016        Ascot        3        Montataire        3.13        1        8        0.5l        £20.24        £14.04        £420.00        3.34%   
    08/07/2016        Newmarket (J)        1        Kilmah        7.03        4        10        0.75l        -£10.00        £4.04        £430.00        0.94%   
    08/07/2016        Newmarket (J)        2        Welford*        35.06        6        13        4.75l        -£5.00        -£0.96        £435.00        -0.22%   
    08/07/2016        Newmarket (J)        2        Ode To Evening*        53.36        1        13        0.5l        £248.71        £247.75        £440.00        56.31%   
    08/07/2016        Ascot        3        Haley Bop        8.59        6        8        6l        -£10.00        £237.75        £450.00        52.83%   
    08/07/2016        Musselburgh        5        Dasheen        5.16        9        10        13l        -£10.00        £227.75        £460.00        49.51%   
    09/07/2016        York        3        Vive Ma Fille        12.80        3        10        3.75l        -£10.00        £217.75        £470.00        46.33%   
    09/07/2016        York        2        Kings Pavilion        11.20        10        15        8l        -£10.00        £207.75        £480.00        43.28%   
    14/07/2016        Leicester        4        Aleko        13.78        5        5        8.25l        -£10.00        £197.75        £490.00        40.36%   
    14/07/2016        Hamilton        4        Templier        10.00        5        6        8l        -£10.00        £187.75        £500.00        37.55%   
    14/07/2016        Epsom        4        Rosy Morning        2.89        8        8        11.5l        -£10.00        £177.75        £510.00        34.85%   
    16/07/2016        Ripon        4        Climax        4.50        4        10        2l        -£10.00        £167.75        £520.00        32.26%   
    16/07/2016        Ripon        2        Welford        14.32        9        14        9l        -£10.00        £157.75        £530.00        29.76%   
    16/07/2016        Ripon        4        Huntlaw        6.00        1        8        1.75l        £47.50        £205.25        £540.00        38.01%   
    21/07/2016        Sandown        5        Furiant        6.60        6        9        4l        -£10.00        £195.25        £550.00        35.50%   
    22/07/2016        Ascot        2        Yorkidding        8.62        1        6        0.75l        £72.39        £267.64        £560.00        47.79%   
    23/07/2016        Ascot        1        Frankuus        7.35        3        9        0.5l        -£10.00        £257.64        £570.00        45.20%   
    23/07/2016        Ascot        2        Daawa        4.70        3        6        0.5l        -£10.00        £247.64        £580.00        42.70%   
    23/07/2016        Ascot        4        Second Serve        7.04        4        5        12.5l        -£10.00        £237.64        £590.00        40.28%   
    23/07/2016        Lingfield        6        Togetherwecan        26.20        8        9        7.5l        -£10.00        £227.64        £600.00        37.94%   
    26/07/2016        Goodwood        2        Revolutionist        12.88        15        17        22l        -£10.00        £217.64        £610.00        35.68%   
    27/07/2016        Goodwood        2        Dessertoflife        10.50        6        10        7l        -£10.00        £207.64        £620.00        33.49%   
    27/07/2016        Goodwood        2        Kiltara*        16.71        7        10        12l        -£5.00        £202.64        £625.00        32.42%   
    29/07/2016        Goodwood        1        Buratino*        16.91        8        9        4l        -£5.00        £197.64        £630.00        31.37%   
    30/07/2016        Goodwood        2        Beaverbrook*        21.76        7        12        3l        -£5.00        £192.64        £635.00        30.34%   
    30/07/2016        Goodwood        2        Soldier In Action*        13.63        12        12        44l        -£5.00        £187.64        £640.00        29.32%   
    02/08/2016        Catterick        4        Tartan Bute        4.97        2        6        0.75l        -£10.00        £177.64        £650.00        27.33%   
    06/08/2016        Newmarket (J)        2        Sennockian Star        6.67        3        8        3l        -£10.00        £167.64        £660.00        25.40%   
    12/08/2016        Newmarket (J)        4        Highly Sprung        4.54        1        7        2l        £33.63        £201.27        £670.00        30.04%   
    12/08/2016        Catterick        4        Climax        4.70        4        5        3.75l        -£10.00        £191.27        £680.00        28.13%   
    14/08/2016        Pontefract        3        Cape Speed        9.05        4        5        14.75l        -£10.00        £181.27        £690.00        26.27%   
    17/08/2016        Carlisle        5        Rainbow Rebel        5.80        1        7        3.25l        £45.60        £226.87        £700.00        32.41%   
    20/08/2016        York        2        Regal Monarch        9.01        2        13        2.75l        -£10.00        £216.87        £710.00        30.55%   
    24/08/2016        Musselburgh        5        Furiant        12.09        5        7        5.5l        -£10.00        £206.87        £720.00        28.73%   
    24/08/2016        Musselburgh        6        Templier        3.55        1        7        0.5l        £24.23        £231.10        £730.00        31.66%   
    25/08/2016        Musselburgh        3        Whitman        9.51        5        8        3.25l        -£10.00        £221.10        £740.00        29.88%   
    28/08/2016        Beverley        5        Dominating        6.69        4        4        5.75l        -£10.00        £211.10        £750.00        28.15%   
    28/08/2016        Beverley        5        Yorkindred Spirit        6.22        5        6        9.5l        -£10.00        £201.10        £760.00        26.46%   
    28/08/2016        Beverley        6        Triassic        7.06        6        7        6.75l        -£10.00        £191.10        £770.00        24.82%   
    02/09/2016        Ascot        3        Renfrew Street        3.50        2        7        1.25l        -£10.00        £181.10        £780.00        23.22%   
    02/09/2016        Musselburgh        5        Zamindo        12.18        7        8        31l        -£10.00        £171.10        £790.00        21.66%   
    14/09/2016        Beverley        4        Welford        6.80        3        5        2.75l        -£10.00        £161.10        £800.00        20.14%   
    14/09/2016        Yarmouth        4        Highly Sprung        4.30        1        8        5l        £31.35        £192.45        £810.00        23.76%   
    17/09/2016        Ayr        2        Haley Bop        14.00        2        14        2.25l        -£10.00        £182.45        £820.00        22.25%   
    17/09/2016        Catterick        4        Isharah        3.82        6        11        6.25l        -£10.00        £172.45        £830.00        20.78%   


Soldier In Action wouldn't you just know it.

Another one I was on last time when looked like it had a problem ran a shocker at festival beaten a long way out and eased off. Considered it today but there's not really any precedent beaten like that and returning in this class from the lay off during the season (did have a decent profile for goodwood festival though). Was worried there was some other pace but certainly not for the first time this season that rarely seems to be a concern as tactics are often changed with these supposed front runners that then sit off it to pick up the pieces if they are in the right races.

After that I'm calling it for the season, has been very sporadic for a good while now and happy to leave it until it all starts up again next year.Rescued by a big price winner I don't mind admitting that but I think I've learned a fair bit from this exercise and will hopefully be able to show this next season.

Cheers to madhatters,dibdob,fatlad (where's he gone?) and everyone who has contributed on here and I wish you all well over the winter.
Report 11kv October 9, 2016 5:17 PM BST
Good thread Striding followed with interest, well done and all the best until next year.
Report stridingedge October 9, 2016 5:28 PM BST
Wink
Report madhatters October 9, 2016 7:34 PM BST
Against the grain till the last Grin
3yo in 3yo+ scoots in by 6L just to fool us all
Not sure what you have learnt SE but GL with it
The patterns i was looking for were thin & far between
Maybe he has changed his tactics/MO
Man of science using technology to improve the training art
Good batch of 2yo's that may or not do the bizz next year
Nice to have gone out on a winner
Au revoiir till '17
Report Virgin October 10, 2016 8:50 AM BST
stridingedge Cool wd lots of work... I'm sure you enjoyed the challenge... gl
Report madhatters October 10, 2016 11:53 AM BST
Going for a song at Windy
Crowley booking a bonus ?
3 months off
Or is it going to keep older bruv the star company Grin
Report dibdob October 10, 2016 11:57 AM BST
It was a great thread and you did fantastically wow to show profit given how the 3 yearolds and older horses performed this season.

Just so you know it's MJs birthday today. If he shows up at one of the 3 tracks he has a runner at today...well we all know how that one could end...
Report McCoy Carp October 10, 2016 2:25 PM BST
It was a great thread and you did fantastically wow to show profit given how the 3 yearolds and older horses performed this season.

I'll ditto this. Superb thread, really enjoyed it, well done striding.
Report madhatters October 10, 2016 4:15 PM BST
Hope Against Hope indeed
Last, last & last Grin
Report stridingedge October 10, 2016 4:17 PM BST
happy birthday MJ Laugh
Report carrot1960 October 10, 2016 4:17 PM BST
And on  a Monday , never heard of
Report posy October 10, 2016 4:29 PM BST
quite ironically named horse considering that one of the joint owners has the same name as someone connected to the barlow clowes affair
Report stridingedge October 10, 2016 4:33 PM BST
i was waiting for a trip for this one when it was going over a mile and kept running on DevilGrin
Report stridingedge October 10, 2016 4:34 PM BST
ie Beardwood
Report McCoy Carp October 10, 2016 4:37 PM BST
Jeezers, he's got to be taking the mick out of you Striding Cry
Report stridingedge October 10, 2016 4:39 PM BST
06 Sep 16 12:31 

Beardwood unlike Bathos I think this one does need an increase in trip.It has been with Fahey and Ellison previously and is win less since it's 3yo mdn on 2nd start over 6f.Has not had many runs for a 4 year old and on yard debut (MJ 25% with these, 20-79) at thirsk was pushed along early and a couple of times in the race off of an average pace over a mile before plugging on late.Obviously not a straightforward one, if you look through it's races over shorter it is often running on when the race is over.Perhaps it needs a bit further (more than plausible on dams side), it has some loftier entries over 9 and 10f but is nowhere near the required rating for them at present.I think it has to be interesting but is also risky and it's one I'd rather chance around 10f than today's trip having watched back it's last run.

cheeky monkey MJ wait till i've packed it in for the season
Report stridingedge October 10, 2016 4:45 PM BST
Let's hop he gets the treble on SS hatters, gl
Report madhatters October 10, 2016 7:26 PM BST
Didn't get a tune outta song

Might as well keep it going till end of Flat SE
Based on the Bearded one Grin
Hatful tomoz
Report Diff-rent October 10, 2016 7:35 PM BST
I laid his Yarmouth winner IR @ 24s and I ain't impressed. Bleeding track a jinx's as I laid a David Elsworth runner last month 30s IR at the same course.

Wished the course stayed SHUT !!!!!!
Report stridingedge October 10, 2016 7:39 PM BST
Missed too many hatters, Huntlaw when i was away at double figs, yesterday's returnee  ditto odds wise and now that one today, couldn't get back into it mentally after these.
Report stridingedge October 10, 2016 7:40 PM BST
Diff-rent Cry
Report McCoy Carp October 11, 2016 3:00 PM BST
Had some @ 3's on Kiribati and 7-2 & 10-3 Kelvin Hall. Can't complain both ran well, but sitting ducks for 2 in behind. So frustrating Cry
Report stridingedge October 11, 2016 3:46 PM BST
ul McCoy

the maiden rag earlier x rated at 40.0+ on here even after the 50% deduction ran a blinder.

one thing i wouldn't try is laying them at odds Shocked
Report madhatters October 17, 2016 6:45 PM BST
Hope you kept the faith Dib
Report madhatters October 18, 2016 11:11 AM BST
Interesting one today
16's
Report stridingedge October 18, 2016 12:46 PM BST
Dasheen hatters?

Getting the sort of trip I thought it needed.

Haven't looked at the opposition though fav obviously taking out much of the market.

3yo+ handicappers up in trip 2-4f , 101-511-(19.8%)+£180.41(A/E 1.32)

Just the time of the year and it's not won a race, will investigate a bit further.
Report stridingedge October 18, 2016 2:22 PM BST
Time of the year been ok for these though not as strong as one might expect in june-aug peak. The Carlisle near miss race was very ordinary (as is much of the form in the book), I thought that day the fact they went quite a pace early doors with them all dropping out and Dasheen plugging on in the runners up berth was suggesting like much of it's earlier season form that the sires pace was certainly nowhere to be seen with this one and that a trip around 10f was much more likely to suit.This 11 1/2f here will certainly test that theory and if we don't see better it's hard to enthuse about it going forward that's for sure, we know the ground is fine.

Haggas to be respected with this profile of once raced mdn winners in these 3yo+ races, it's hard to know how good that race will turn out to be but there has been no suggestion his runners are under priced in this scenario (as I thought may be the case).

I couldn't put anyone off it at the price but i am not confident it's got much raw ability either like some of the yard's runner's i see from their maiden runs, yarmouth is not a track where this type has seen a win in my DB (The usual suspects Beverley,Musselburgh,Hamilton and others are prolific with these up in trip types).
Report madhatters October 18, 2016 9:12 PM BST
Dashed Grin
Report dibdob April 3, 2017 1:04 PM BST
Bumb. Hope everyone here has been keeping well.
Are we getting a 2017 turf thread Striding? The yard has been in surprisingly good form already this year
Report stridingedge April 3, 2017 1:28 PM BST
Hi there dibdob, yes another thread in the pipeline for this season. Turf starts been pretty slow in recent seasons regardless of the aw, the 19.5% sr on aw so far this year was frequently 25%-30% in the past so it's not blistering this season suggesting a fast start to the turf.

Of course there are no hard and fast rules here and each horse on it's own merits but 4yo+ hcps have been very slow in the early part of the season on turf mar/apr since BFSP. an a/e of only 0.51 with 19.67 wins expected and only 10 returned.

The 3yo hcps have only been hitting around 8% for 2 of last 3 seasons so I'm pretty cautious with these 2 as early precedence appears to be with the 2yo's a bit more so.

All in all won't be expecting too much in the early weeks here.

Hope all is well with you dibdob and look forward to your views again this time around.

cheers
Report dibdob April 4, 2017 5:21 AM BST
Looking forward to it.

19.5% sounds pretty good compared to a couple of years back when he had that long losing run.

I'm feeling more positive about the stable as a lot of the horses that have already out and had a few runs seem to have ran up to their highest mark or better.

Will be interesting to see who the yards go to jockey will be this year. Seems like Fanning is back in the hot seat for now
Report blackbarn April 4, 2017 3:07 PM BST
He has 10 or so of Hamdan's 2yo's (about the same as last year).   Obviously Elarqam will be interesting (1.6m worth of Frankel x Attraction).  Two others I like are Albaariq - a March Shamardal colt out of Eltiqaa AND an unnamed(?) April filly by Arcano out of Maimoona.  The first above only has a Derby entry but the other two both have entries in the big 2yo sales races later in the season.
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