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08 Mar 16
18:58
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Date Joined:
05 Apr 12
If you are excited about this meeting from a betting point of view. If you are getting your bank together in preparation as one poster put it then you have the correct view of betting to be a long term loser. By all means be excited with it as a spectacle, in the same way you would the Olympics but from a betting point of view its no different to the Wolves card on the same day and if you have not reached that mental point in your betting you have a long way to go. Some of you will be off to the nearest pre view night to listen to a bunch of journalists, bookmaker rep's and ex jockies try to tell you how to bet. None of them have any credentials as punters and if they do they would not be allowed talk in any intelligent rational terms at such a gathering. Everything about the media's presentation of betting is designed to make you a loser. I know this because I have never yet heard anything within main stream media presentations that as a full time pro punter caused me to lose sleep. Why am I spouting this, because it was one of the most valuable lessons I learnt on the way. The sooner you learn it the better off you will be, most however will not. If you continue to complain about the tipping of Nevison or some other media personality then it means you are listening to them and trust me you should not be. If you want a classic example go to Youtube and listen to the Racing Posts golden rules of betting and if you like what you hear then find a friend who somewhere down the line will allow you to sleep on their couch. Good luck next week at Wolverhampton
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yeah but at Cheltenham every horse is trying to win.
Whereas your card at Wolves has how many non jiggers? horses out to stroll around to get a lower handicap mark etc.
Surely that makes it a better betting proposition?
Also its quality racing, see the best horses in 4 days.
Whereas your card at Wolves has how many non jiggers? horses out to stroll around to get a lower handicap mark etc.
Surely that makes it a better betting proposition?
Also its quality racing, see the best horses in 4 days.
The OP is a patronising born loser. Nothing worse imo. And always to be ignored.
I expect on the whole to be ignored which paradoxically is why I have posted. If I thought everyone would rush to listen to what I say I would almost certainly shut up. While only the few are listening I am willing to speak. Perhaps the odd person new to the game will listen and short circuit those wasted early years.
Enjoy your 0-50 handicap at Wolves. I think you are missing the point of Cheltenham, Aintree and Royal Ascot.
Certainly missing the profits to be made by betting in top class Handicaps.
I will enjoy Cheltenham but not from a betting perspective.
'Its easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled'
'Its easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled'
I agree, if one was listening to others and seeking their opinions on what to back.
But for those who know their horses and have ' paid their dues' in time and experience. There are plenty of good betting opportunities of ones own choosing.hth.
But for those who know their horses and have ' paid their dues' in time and experience. There are plenty of good betting opportunities of ones own choosing.hth.
I am not saying there are no valid bets, what I am saying is its just another meet. Problem is many people will have too many bets at Cheltenham with too much on. I guess it means more to tell someone you picked the winner of the Gold cup than the winner of the 4.30 at Wolves
Wolves is a **** hole with loads of falsely run races. A lot of the time the best horse doesn't win. Cheltenham races are truly run and the best horse usually comes out on top.
OliasOfSunhillow
I have to say I agree 100% with what you say.
I will also say that this IMO is one of the best pieces of advice given on this site ever.
My betting profits are a lot lot better since I stopped betting at grade 1 tracks on the flat and the bigger tracks over the jumps.
However on the all weather I will only bet Southwell.
I will be enjoying Cheltenham as a spectacle and will have a bet on every race of no more than £5.
I have to say I agree 100% with what you say.
I will also say that this IMO is one of the best pieces of advice given on this site ever.
My betting profits are a lot lot better since I stopped betting at grade 1 tracks on the flat and the bigger tracks over the jumps.
However on the all weather I will only bet Southwell.
I will be enjoying Cheltenham as a spectacle and will have a bet on every race of no more than £5.
Once again I will be going to Cheltenham for the first 2 days, been 3 of the last 5 years. I love going and it is without doubt a brilliant spectacle. However I do somewhat agree that there can be some good bets to be had at lower class meetings and the a.w racing. I prefer flat racing and do ok on the flat but really struggle to get to grips with jumps. I live near Newmarket and always go to the guineas, July festival and numerous other race days but I have to say the whole buzz and build up to Cheltenham is like nothing else all year in racing! Roll on next Tuesday!
I will only bet at Southwell....at least it's not Portman park.
I'd agree with the OP if I was a pro punter but I'm not. I'm a 'mug punter' in that I have too many bets to make an overall profit. I seem to do well at the big meetings though, mainly through high paying placepots and exactas for modest stakes. Low weights in big handicaps at cheltenham and Aintree or well drawn horses in big fields at the big flat meetings can give massive dividends on exacta perms and boost placepot payouts.
Can't beat the thrill of getting a good one up!
Can't beat the thrill of getting a good one up!
It is a myth that someone cannot make a profit if they have many bets. When I switched from bookmaker betting to exchange betting I knew that the volume of bets I had with bookmakers (about 3,500 per year) would be no way enough on here
The clue to my failure is in the phrase 'too many bets'
have to agree with maleuk, at least at Cheltenham you know your horse is there to try to win.
Olias - you are bang on the money. It's actually heartening that there are plenty out there flogging away trying to profit from ultra compeitive racing in a perfect market when the very opposite is where they would find the best source of value if they bothered looking. I've lost count of the people at work sidling up and asking what I fancy for the Gold Cup. As if I had some second sight that no-one else has seen, that they want me to share with them so they can feel the benefit of some imagined inside track. When I tell them the chances are that I'll more likely to be sorting something out at Fakenham, they lose interest - they think I've gone mad. I recall the days when I would count the sleeps to Cheltenham, take the week off and lose myself in the magic, but did I win long term? Of course not. I'll watch it, and enjoy it, but the chances of having a bet are zero - precisly because, everything will be trying and every race will be analysed to death by the shrewdest of layers.
Spot on Steerforth, I remember some years ago a TV crew going round asking various people what they fancied. The eventually went over to two pro gamblers expecting some sort of coup insight. They said, its two competetive and its over analysed to find an edge. For interest we have a few one V one bets between ourselves and then just sit back and watch the rest.
Now thats not quite my message. What I am really saying is treat it like another meet. If you are having 7 or 8 bets on the first day at the festival and none at Fakenham or whatever then you are probably approaching race betting incorrectly.
Now thats not quite my message. What I am really saying is treat it like another meet. If you are having 7 or 8 bets on the first day at the festival and none at Fakenham or whatever then you are probably approaching race betting incorrectly.
As a clue, My records show that my bets on Cheltenham Handicaps have shown profit over the last 8 years.
It's a great festival. And all horses are trying, and good prices to be obtained.hth
It's a great festival. And all horses are trying, and good prices to be obtained.hth
Perhaps you are treating it as 'another meeting'
My father used to say "A 5/1 winner at Sedgefield pays the same as a 5/1 winner at Cheltenham".
Not that he ever had a winner at either I might add, just for a bit of balance.
Not that he ever had a winner at either I might add, just for a bit of balance.
Everyone knows everything's trying at Cheltenham.
The issue in the handicaps is that we aren't certain what hasn't been trying on the runs up to the festival. You then see 'on the day' when the moneys put down and there will be a number of horses in each handicap race where connections are expecting their horse to be the best handicapped. It's not easy, but, I will enjoy trying to make the right decision.
The issue in the handicaps is that we aren't certain what hasn't been trying on the runs up to the festival. You then see 'on the day' when the moneys put down and there will be a number of horses in each handicap race where connections are expecting their horse to be the best handicapped. It's not easy, but, I will enjoy trying to make the right decision.
Wouldn't disagree in principal. But ( for me) more likely to find a 5/1 winner at Cheltenham than Sedgefield.
Tend to agree with olias, great jumping spectacle ,but just that, bets should be minimum stake, the festival always reminds me of children looking forward to Christmas and father Xmas , just fantasy
I think the OP should use his Cheltenham betting bank to get some grammar lessons.
Especially in paragraphing and punctuation as his posts are unreadable.
Especially in paragraphing and punctuation as his posts are unreadable.
Talking with over 50 years of attendances, give up 5 years ago, wonderful tv viewing
From a betting point of view Cheltenham is the same as anything else; if something looks a big price you take it. But from a trading point of view it's the best week of the year.
Morning Foxy, hope all's well. Not even a booking let alone a straight red. What made you think that?
No excuses for bad grammar barry.
Excluding bigmart who has Dyspraxia.
Just my opinion.
Excluding bigmart who has Dyspraxia.
Just my opinion.
i thought somebody had posted that you were banned must be either a crank or i misread something.
I seemed to have slipped through the net and am still here.
"But from a trading point of view the best of the year"
Probably the best reply yet on this thread, even if he is wrong (not saying he is) I applaud the way he has looked at the problem from a different perspective
Probably the best reply yet on this thread, even if he is wrong (not saying he is) I applaud the way he has looked at the problem from a different perspective
Agree with Barry....gave up going a few years ago as the crowds made the whole experience exhausting.Nowadays prefer to watch the meeting on television. Also big big mistake to have extended to four days with the inevitable dumbing down of quality runners.
Certainly makes sense to keep an eye on Wolver as frequently it's an opportunity to latch onto a well planned coup whilst everybody's attention is diverted.
Certainly makes sense to keep an eye on Wolver as frequently it's an opportunity to latch onto a well planned coup whilst everybody's attention is diverted.
18 races over 3 days was better i had no problem when the bumper arrived to make it 19 races but nowadays whilst i accept the ryanair and the albert bartlet are good races in there own right they were not needed,would we ever have seen that memorable finish to the 1989 gold cup if the ryanair was around then,the sun alliance hurdle {neptune}and the triumph hurdle are not the races they once were, even the jlt took away only yesterday a serious arkle contender.
What is the point of this thread - to show how 'special' and 'different' the op is (or at least thinks he is)? Some of what is said is fair enough as the 'evenings' are one huge gravy train now, but great, you don't like cheltneham and approach it as any other meeting (though show me the aw meeting that you can bet nr no bet months in advance etc). Join the queue of other posters that have posted (and will post) similar threads or you could just not bother anyone on any racing forums next week with attention seeking 'I'm different than you lot' threads. Pip pip
I'm surprised the OP hasn't plugged his website, there's still time of course.
I mean who wants to stand amongst those hoards of folks,when they can come to sunny Wolverhampton
I seem to have split the forum here, approx' 98% hate my post and about 2% agree. Wait a minute those numbers look familiar
The champion hurdle is as Matt stated, pants this year, still time to sell your tickets
Pleased to say I am in the 2per cent and thanks Barry for your imput
OliasofSunhollow Zip here thats the most sensible post I've ever seen on here
it is very good advice & I've been on here since 2002....very well put
it is very good advice & I've been on here since 2002....very well put
OliasOfSunhillow 08 Mar 16 19:29 Joined: 05 Apr 12 | Topic/replies: 1,556 | Blogger: OliasOfSunhillow's blog
I expect on the whole to be ignored which paradoxically is why I have posted. If I thought everyone would rush to listen to what I say I would almost certainly shut up. While only the few are listening I am willing to speak. Perhaps the odd person new to the game will listen and short circuit those wasted early years.
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I expect on the whole to be ignored which paradoxically is why I have posted. If I thought everyone would rush to listen to what I say I would almost certainly shut up. While only the few are listening I am willing to speak. Perhaps the odd person new to the game will listen and short circuit those wasted early years.
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Olias..... dont worry about being in the 2% club..when your right your right in fact Befair have said many times 95 % of there punters lose long term ... and all are in the 98% club... dont follow the crowd is my advice ....
I agree with foxy. 4 days too much and the main races have been weakened.
With the new stands only a question of time before they go Wednesday to Saturday.
They are now attending to the Corporates and the 'Once a Year Big Day Occasion Mob'
With the new stands only a question of time before they go Wednesday to Saturday.
They are now attending to the Corporates and the 'Once a Year Big Day Occasion Mob'
op, might have been good advice 25 years ago but in an age where you can also lay and trade, bet pre race and during the race etc its only the Luddites who should take note
rider backing or laying BEFORE THE RACE starts is my game trading in running is something is not for me ... but good luck if its your thing
The OP is trying to be smart but really he's wrong. Firstly if he's a form student rather than someone relying on inside information it's clearly better to be punting on a card where you know everything is trying. More importantly however he's forgotten that in the stampede to hook punters there are some great opportunities that you wouldn't get on a run of the mill meeting. Bookmakers are desperate to be best priced on the supreme novices particularly but also on the main event each day. You get all sorts of things like money back for 2nd places etc with many bookmakers plus additional places each way. Now the Op may say that if you are making money you can't get on with these bookmakers anyway. That may be true but if you are a pro punter or anything close you can't bet in the mornings on here at most meetings as the liquidity is negligible. At Cheltenham next week you can bet in the morning or just before the race. A key advantage.
zipper, reading what ppl have posted clearly isnt your thing either
DeCalc, I have been on Betfair since it started back around 2000. Dont take any notice of the profile summary
Asparagus has made some good observations but they fall into the catagory of treat it like any other meet ie if there is an opportunity take it whatever the occasion. Most do not do this however, they will be swept up in the find a winner at Cheltenham moment.
can see both sides, not really a jumps man, will have a few bets next week at chelters. I don't think this 'everything is trying' makes things somehow easier.
as for the hcps, you will find similar winners that have been given a 'quiet time' showing a miraculous new lease of life as much as a horses in the lower grade aw stuff.
There is no right or wrong answer here, some may like the better class races and i know plenty on here, myself included, will operate on the lower class primarily.
as for the hcps, you will find similar winners that have been given a 'quiet time' showing a miraculous new lease of life as much as a horses in the lower grade aw stuff.
There is no right or wrong answer here, some may like the better class races and i know plenty on here, myself included, will operate on the lower class primarily.
Why the obsession about what is and isn't trying? - presumably if you bet the rest of the year you accept non triers as an occupational hazard - If everything is suddenly a trier that distorts the form for the ones who had not been trying before. No edge there! Its not about what's off and what's not - its about market efficiency. Any meeting or individual race, which is analysed as fully as happens at Cheltenham above all other meetings,is far less likely to throw up a value bet - not impossible - just less likely- to a high degree. You need to look for value where others don't. This whole post is about odds and chances not spectacle. If you want to be a succesful punter this is not the place for you - if you're a racing fan there is nothing better on the planet.
Dont lose sight of what I am saying here. I am saying its just another meet, I am not saying do not bet at Cheltenham. The problem is that most punters will sweat all 6 or 7 races each day and will not pay any notice to Wolves, Fakenham or whatever else is on that afternoon. If you find yourself doing that then you are not serious about betting but it could be argued that you are serious about enjoying Cheltenham
Think the majority of people view Cheltenham as a 4 day vacation away from the daily grind of trying to get one over the books, hence most have separate funds to play it.
Some good debate, enjoyed reading it more than most threads on here.
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