Tomorrow's thoughts 29/11/2015....

.....E.W. bet Hear The Chimes 14.30 Leicester 14-1 BF SpBk BOG
         
Win Double On Tour 13.50 & Lake View Lad 14.20 Carlisle 11-10 & 2-1

Having had a glance over tomorrow's racing I did think there was a standout E.W. bet at a price, that horse being Hear The Chimes who goes in Leicester's 14.30 . However I also found myself being drawn to a couple of horses that where running outside of my usual handicap comfort zone, which on further inspection had me parting with some more of my hard earned. Individually at the prices I've secured they were both just about backable, however in a double they produced far more lucrative odds of just over 5-1, which when evaluating risk against reward those type of terms seemed more than fair in relation to the profit margin, in essence both races looking  pretty much a coin flip between the respective market leaders of each contest.

I will start with my E.W. bet in the 14.30 on Leicester's card, where I really did initially struggle to see any worth in having a wager. However via a process of elimination, along with his recent spin over C/D I came to the conclusion Hear The Chimes looked way too big at 14-1 with the BF SpBk. Shaun Harris may not be among the winners presently, however from his limited stock he has had a few recently outrun their massive odds in November, some hitting the frame despite looking up against it at their respective prices. Hear The Chimes took a massive step forward from his seasonal reappearance Lto, if that sort of improvement is emulated in tomorrow's race he will definitely be involved in the finish. As his fitness level go up his class sights have been lowered back down, this type of opposition looking more suitable to his limited ability. That Leicester race he contested Lto may not have been a bad little race for the grade, with plenty of horses behind the extremely well punted Sir Valentino not devoid of ability. Ground, trip and track look fine, so with the slight ease to his mark I'd be quietly confident Hear The Chimes has a bigger run in him than his 14-1 quote with BF would suggest.


The two that I like on the Carlisle card are On Tour in the 13.50 and Lake View Lad who runs a half hour later at 14.20.  On Tour made an extremely good start to his chasing career, accounting for a decent yard stick in Ortago Trail earlier in the month at Exeter, a stark contrast to the start his nearest rival in the betting Sirabad made to his chasing career at Sandown a few days previously. That day at Sandown Sirabad's jumping had no real rythm or flow, standing miles off or getting in too tight on almost every obstacle, not looking that day as accomplished a fencer as On Tour by any means. Tomorrows race does  look a match up between those two, with the early indication that On Tour is going to make up every inch and more of a chaser than he was a hurdler, that remark presently Imo can not be said about Siribad, fractionally more than a coin flip at 11-10 is the value Imo.

Another very similar scenario faces punters in the next race on the card, with 2 novices in the hurdling ranks standing out from their respective opposition. Virnon won a novice hurdle over C/D recently, however it's fair to surmise he didn't beat very much, so getting lumbered with a 7lb penalty due to the conditions of tomorrows event looks very much a negative. Again his main market rival is my idea of the winner, with Lake View Lad possessing the proverbial mile more potential than Virnon. Lake View Lad has yet to jump a flight in public, but is bred for to make up in to a 3mile chaser in time, with current connections having to stump up £70,000 to secure his services after his very good bumper run in Ireland last May, that race already throwing up some potentially smart types. Lake View Lad won on debut for the Alexanders on his seasonal reappearance at Hexam,  beating  Egret with any amount up his sleeve in prevailing conditions, with Egret on his previous outing in May finished runner up to Dundrum Lad, that horse subsequently acquired by  JP Macmanus. With Stephen Mulqueen's claim Virnon has to concede 12lbs to his older more unexposed rival, of those two Lake View Lad looks to stand way out as the bet.


I placed my double with B365 at 11-10 & 2-1 when they opened, the latter price obviously has dissapeared, so anyone getting involved has to factor the contracted price into their margins. However  11-10 & 5-4 are still available with said firm, which still looks fair enough value as a 7-2 double given the coin flip scenario in both races.

GL if you get involved.