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Relentless
27 Nov 15 14:04
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Date Joined: 09 Feb 02
| Topic/replies: 175 | Blogger: Relentless's blog
I posted this in GB but no responses so thought it might be more appropriate here.

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Perhaps an easy one for some but I'd appreciate guidance.

Say I have a group (population) of horses that win a set of races (events). These horses have some things in common and I want to know what the probability is of this group winning this set of races. For now I will ignore the implied odds (the market) and assume they all horses have an equal chance in all races.

Let's say the groups/runners are as follows:

Race 1: 5 of 18 runners
Race 2: 6 of 20 runners
Race 3: 5 of 17 runners
Race 4: 7 of 19 runners
Race 5: 6 of 18 runners

All races are independent of each other of course.

So, my approach is the probability of the group winning the first race is 5/18 = 27.8% or 3.6/1...is that correct?

And for all it would be 5/18 x 6/20 x 5/17 x 7/19 x 6/18 = 0.30%...but I'm not sure about this.

Alternatively, if I know that this group of 29 runners have won 100% of the races, what does that tell me in probability terms?

Also meant to say, what can I deduce from the total qualifying population i.e. 29 producing all the winners from a total population of 92 runners?

That equals 31.5% but not sure if that is meaningless.
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Report Swardean November 27, 2015 2:20 PM GMT
So, my approach is the probability of the group winning the first race is 5/18 = 27.8% or 3.6/1...is that correct?   YES

And for all it would be 5/18 x 6/20 x 5/17 x 7/19 x 6/18 = 0.30%...but I'm not sure about this.  YES correct (i.e. randomly would occur 3 in every 1000 times)

Not sure what you are asking in the other questions.
Report Relentless November 27, 2015 2:26 PM GMT
Thanks Swardean.

Hope you don't mind some follow up questions.

If the winner of these races always comes from this group, what can I deduce from that? In other words how much more likely is it that in the next race the winner will come from the group with the same common asset?
Report duncan idaho November 27, 2015 2:33 PM GMT
85/40
Report geoff m November 27, 2015 3:02 PM GMT
If the winner of these races always comes from this group,what can I deduce from that?


Youve found a goose that lays golden eggsLaugh
Report Relentless November 27, 2015 3:45 PM GMT
geoff m

I wish!

duncan

How did you arrive at that figure?

Thanks
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