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Henderson is amazingly unlucky
Henderson is amazingly unlucky
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sageform 21 Nov 15 09:13
Bookmakers backed up by punters make favourites surely? it was a bit tongue in cheek, but yes and why, ..... mainly connections reputation imo. Even if the horse is un-raced/not the best form etc, you will find that because off connections reputation they will/could be odds on when they are not entitled to be..... so getting beat at odds on is no surprise. |
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UK and Ireland odds on runners over jumps since 31st Oct 2014, in order of profit %
Trainer Runners Winners Strike Rate Profit/(Loss) Profit % CharlieLongsdon 11 9 81.8% 3.10 28.2% Phillip Hobbs 30 19 63.3% 0.65 2.2% Paul Nicholls 63 41 65.1% (0.11) (0.2)% Dan Skelton 23 14 60.9% (0.44) (1.9)% John Ferguson 53 35 66.0% (2.56) (4.8)% David Pipe 31 19 61.3% (1.55) (5.0)% Nicky Henderson 69 42 60.9% (4.18) (6.1)% Willie Mullins 163 101 62.0% (10.39) (6.4)% Gordon Elliott 64 38 59.4% (4.54) (7.1)% Donald McCain 17 11 64.7% (1.34) (7.9)% Alan King 29 17 58.6% (2.47) (8.5)% Jonjo O'Neill 19 11 57.9% (1.84) (9.7)% Thanks very much for these stats provided by posters. Most helpful and it does show that my anecdotal impression was wrong.  I take the remarks about Fitzgerald's success but believe I am right in saying that Henderson never won the trainer's title when Fitzgerald was his number one jockey but regained it the year after he left.Impressive though the number of runners Fitzgerald rode - around 1200 - the longevity of his career puts it into perspective. It works out around 50 winners per season which with the horses at his disposal doesn't seem quite so impressive.  Good bit of poetry up there too. |
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sageform Joined: 15 Jun 01
Replies: 6370 21 Nov 15 09:30 Henderson chasers have mostly run poorly for the last 18 months! Long time to having a lean spell. In fairness some of his star chasers have been out injured during that time. kipling 21 Nov 15 10:10 I take the remarks about Fitzgerald's success but believe I am right in saying that Henderson never won the trainer's title when Fitzgerald was his number one jockey but regained it the year after he left. Fair point but I do think there might be genuine reasons for that, such as Fitzgerald's career was slow to take off in the early stages and he mainly started to get noticed when riding for Jack Retter at what seemed to be the mainly west country courses, Martin Pipe was in his pomp throughout much of Fitzgerald's career to the extent that David Pipe maybe isn't now, trainers like Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins became a bigger force throughout Fitzgerald's riding career which wasn't the case when Steve Smith-Eccles or Richard Dunwoody were riding for him, Henderson tends to be a quality over quantity trainer so won't rack up the numbers like some, plus he in recent years has had a lot success with JP McManus horses, who is an owner that didn't have horses with the yard during most of Fiztgeral'd time there and even when he did, he had his retained jockey. McManus horses like Aigle D'Or, Bellvano, Binocular, Captain Cutter, Darlan, Kid Cassidy, My Tent Or Yours, Nadiya De La Vega and Quantitativeeasing have brought both owner a trainer a lot of success and then there was the time Henderson had that host of winners at the Cheltenham Festival when one of his staff won a fortune that I assume helped him be Champion Trainer that season? |
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Thanks for the detailed response and I do get all that Ima but the only way to trainers' title these days is to win those races at Cheltenham/Liverpool. Average 50 winners a year for Fitzgerald says it all for me. Conditionals often surpass that total. Henderson had top owners way before McManus. Champion trainer 1985/6 1986/7 and not again till 2012/13. Who was number one jockey in the interim? Add in Rough Quest ridden by Fitzgerald as best horse never to win a Gold Cup. The same horse never recovered from his Grand National win under Fitzgerald when he had to survive the indignity of a stewards' enquiry for crossing the second. He was at best an ordinary jockey. Henderson is very loyal to his jocks however. He stuck by Johnny Kavanagh for long enough and by Marcus Foley, who began very well, beyond his sell by date. Whenever Fitzgerald rode a winner Henderson used to come on the telly to say what a fantastic ride it was. He knew that the jockey was criticised amongst the racing community and was trying to support both Fitzgerald and his decision to retain him. In the old days on this forum when Fitzgerald rode a winner the expression was "another power-packed ride from Fitzgerald" but it was intended ironically.
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ima. yes a lot of the chasers have been missing but many more have started favourite and been beaten a long way. I can only find 2 wins in May, one in October (Cocktails at Dawn) and Sprinter Sacre in November so far this season. That compares to 29 over hurdles!
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I am no fan of Fitzgerald - he has taken racing presenting/punditry to new depths but I must defend his ride on Rough Quest - it was top class ...
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Very few National winners recover their form so a tad unfair to blame MF
for Rough Quest. |
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I can only reiterate that you don't win as many top class races as Fitzgerald did during his career unless you are decent and not too many have won all 4 main championship races at the festival, as well as a Triumph and a Grand National too.
He had a career total of 1280 winners in a 20 year riding career, which is a bit better than averaging 50 a season and that's after a slow start and low profile early part of his career, and at the time of his retirement he was 5th in the list of the most successful jump jockeys of all time numerically. |
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His punditry is one thing, but I wouldn't put anyone off praising his exploits in the saddle...top class jockey
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A j
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A journeyman who got lucky, he wouldnt hold Geraghtys coat.
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