Henderson is amazingly unlucky

he is even more unlucky with drifters they always seem to run bad.

It all seems so odd. I just can't understand it. Has Fitzgerald still got a tipping line by the way?

i would say w mullins and j gosden would be close to the top for odds on shots beaten

i would say w mullins and j gosden would be close to the top for odds on shots beaten

Maybe but they are stables who run a hell of a lot of horses so percentage wise I doubt it. Henderson often goes days without a runner. Must be very frustrating for his owners. He pretty much threw in the towel for the trainers' championship a month or more ago when he said he wouldn't be engaging a serious jockey this year.

kipling ... do you think he lays them then ?
Stick to making cakes my son

He was actually in profit up until today for odds on shots in 2015. What sort of a sample size made you so sure he was one of the worst?

kipling ... do you think he lays them then ?
Stick to making cakes my son

What a preposterous suggestion!

Funny how some people associate Kipling with cake making rather than our national poet. A cultural thing I guess.

OK PJAY. I'd better do some homework because that doesn't seem right to me. Just being lazy and was hoping someone else had done the research. I've always been a great fan of the Henderson stable especially in the great Dunwoody years when he was regularly champion trainer. Then Fitzgerald arrived and the stable went downhill. It picked up the year Fitzgerald left but is in decline again now.

Great reply Kipling.

Re lumpon!

kipling

rev poet

Nov 20, 2015 -- 6:14PM, kipling wrote:

OK PJAY. I'd better do some homework because that doesn't seem right to me. Just being lazy and was hoping someone else had done the research. I've always been a great fan of the Henderson stable especially in the great Dunwoody years when he was regularly champion trainer. Then Fitzgerald arrived and the stable went downhill. It picked up the year Fitzgerald left but is in decline again now.

But you're misunderstanding or failing to recognise how SPs work. You're not going to get any trainer who is consistently profitable or not at odds on.

His form or lack of it doesn't really come into it either.

I never back odds on Pjay. It's always difficult to determine if Henderson is in form or not. Things change from day to day and back again in that stable. Sps have nothing to do with it. I've been backing horses for over 50 years so I'm not a novice.

so let's just get this straight

kipling the poet also made cakes , a mary berry of his era

If his horses don't deserve to go off at odds on they won't go off at odds on kipling.

This year he has had more odds on winners than Nicholls. A higher successful strike rate than most and up to today, he was in profit. It doesn't matter if he's 'in form' or not.

pjay

its a matter of opinion if a horse deserves to be odds on or not ,its not factual regardless of which stable.

Though I've belted you and flayed you,
By the livin' Gawd that made you,
You bake better cakes than I do, Gunga Din!

Chemical Nicky.

Nov 20, 2015 -- 6:46PM, foxy wrote:

pjayits a matter of opinion if a horse deserves to be odds on or not ,its not factual regardless of which stable.

It's a matter of collective opinion

Competent pilots would help

funny enough paris i have just had roo on he says the same about the pilots.

newbury any of the 3 days ?

Foxy - all. You?

all 3 paris travelling down wednesday,perhaps have a pint on the friday ?

Alas not staying overnight or I'd love to.

henderson before todays update was showing a 1.09 profit at betfair sp on industry odds on favs 36 wins from 54 selections this calendar year

ask greg gory he is the stat king !

kipling did u get rodgered    rodger kipling

UK and Ireland odds on runners over jumps since 31st Oct 2014, in order of profit %

Trainer    Runners    Winners    Strike Rate    Profit/(Loss)    Profit %
CharlieLongsdon    11    9    81.8%    3.10    28.2%
Phillip Hobbs    30    19    63.3%    0.65    2.2%
Paul Nicholls    63    41    65.1%    (0.11)    (0.2)%
Dan Skelton    23    14    60.9%    (0.44)    (1.9)%
John Ferguson    53    35    66.0%    (2.56)    (4.8)%
David Pipe    31    19    61.3%    (1.55)    (5.0)%
Nicky Henderson    69    42    60.9%    (4.18)    (6.1)%
Willie Mullins    163    101    62.0%    (10.39)    (6.4)%
Gordon Elliott    64    38    59.4%    (4.54)    (7.1)%
Donald McCain    17    11    64.7%    (1.34)    (7.9)%
Alan King    29    17    58.6%    (2.47)    (8.5)%
Jonjo O'Neill    19    11    57.9%    (1.84)    (9.7)%

I think you will find that Lay P McManus shows a healthy profit with his odds on shots.

Nov 20, 2015 -- 10:44PM, quantize wrote:

I think you will find that Lay P McManus shows a healthy profit with his odds on shots.

For the last 3 years he's -0.01 to level stakes. I don't know why people are attributing odds to a trainer/owner. It doesn't work like that at all, certainly not over long periods.

kipling     20 Nov 15 18:14 
.....Then Fitzgerald arrived and the stable went downhill. It picked up the year Fitzgerald left but is in decline again now.

Not trying to be rude here but do people just say the first thing that comes into their heads?

Mick Fitzgerald won a whole stack of top races during his career both for Nicky Henderson and other trainers, including the Grand National, was twice top jockey at the Cheltenham Festival winning races like the Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle, Arkle, Cathcart, Coral Cup, Mildmay of Fleet, Ryanair Chase, Stayers's Hurdle, Triumph Hurdle, as well as other top races like the Aintree Hurdle, Bula Hurdle, Charlie Hall Chase, Christmas Hurdle, Cleeve Hurdle, Feltham Chase, King George, Martell Cup, Vict0r Ch@ndler Chase, Tingle Creek and both the T0te Gold Trophy Hurdle and Chase with several of those won more than once and in total rode 81 Grade rated winners in hurdles and chases combined.

The list below tells you what you need to know. The more high profile!e the trainer, the more odds on shots he has and the more you lose by backing them

I forgot to add Lay P McManus healthy profit is linked to those that drift.

Who makes these odds on??

Bookmakers backed up by punters make favourites surely? Going back to Henderson, he was unlucky to have 2 fallers yesterday but in general too many of his horses have been fading badly and that is not luck.

get the same thing every year with all the top profile trainers at some point

a thread on here saying someone is out of form is often the cue for them to go on a spree

Henderson chasers have mostly run poorly for the last 18 months! Long time to having a lean spell.

the initial post was not correct though about laying his odds on shots in general for profit. I find it strange when no evidence is posted to back up these statements.

sageform 21 Nov 15 09:13
Bookmakers backed up by punters make favourites surely?

it was a bit tongue in cheek, but yes and why, ..... mainly connections reputation imo.

Even if the horse is un-raced/not the best form etc, you will find that because off connections reputation they will/could be odds on when they are not entitled to be..... so getting beat at odds on is no surprise.

UK and Ireland odds on runners over jumps since 31st Oct 2014, in order of profit %

Trainer    Runners    Winners    Strike Rate    Profit/(Loss)    Profit %
CharlieLongsdon    11    9    81.8%    3.10    28.2%
Phillip Hobbs    30    19    63.3%    0.65    2.2%
Paul Nicholls    63    41    65.1%    (0.11)    (0.2)%
Dan Skelton    23    14    60.9%    (0.44)    (1.9)%
John Ferguson    53    35    66.0%    (2.56)    (4.8)%
David Pipe    31    19    61.3%    (1.55)    (5.0)%
Nicky Henderson    69    42    60.9%    (4.18)    (6.1)%
Willie Mullins    163    101    62.0%    (10.39)    (6.4)%
Gordon Elliott    64    38    59.4%    (4.54)    (7.1)%
Donald McCain    17    11    64.7%    (1.34)    (7.9)%
Alan King    29    17    58.6%    (2.47)    (8.5)%
Jonjo O'Neill    19    11    57.9%    (1.84)    (9.7)%


Thanks very much for these stats provided by posters. Most helpful and it does show that my anecdotal impression was wrong.

I take the remarks about Fitzgerald's success but believe I am right in saying that Henderson never won the trainer's title when Fitzgerald was his number one jockey but regained it the year after he left.Impressive though the number of runners Fitzgerald rode - around 1200 - the longevity of his career puts it into perspective. It works out around 50 winners per season which with the horses at his disposal doesn't seem quite so impressive.

Good bit of poetry up there too.

sageform     Joined: 15 Jun 01
Replies: 6370 21 Nov 15 09:30 
Henderson chasers have mostly run poorly for the last 18 months! Long time to having a lean spell.

In fairness some of his star chasers have been out injured during that time.

kipling     21 Nov 15 10:10 

I take the remarks about Fitzgerald's success but believe I am right in saying that Henderson never won the trainer's title when Fitzgerald was his number one jockey but regained it the year after he left.

Fair point but I do think there might be genuine reasons for that, such as Fitzgerald's career was slow to take off in the early stages and he mainly started to get noticed when riding for Jack Retter at what seemed to be the mainly west country courses, Martin Pipe was in his pomp throughout much of Fitzgerald's career to the extent that David Pipe maybe isn't now, trainers like Philip Hobbs, Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins became a bigger force throughout Fitzgerald's riding career which wasn't the case when Steve Smith-Eccles or Richard Dunwoody were riding for him, Henderson tends to be a quality over quantity trainer so won't rack up the numbers like some, plus he in recent years has had a lot success with JP McManus horses, who is an owner that didn't have horses with the yard during most of Fiztgeral'd time there and even when he did, he had his retained jockey.

McManus horses like Aigle D'Or, Bellvano, Binocular, Captain Cutter, Darlan, Kid Cassidy, My Tent Or Yours, Nadiya De La Vega and Quantitativeeasing have brought both owner a trainer a lot of success and then there was the time Henderson had that host of winners at the Cheltenham Festival when one of his staff won a fortune that I assume helped him be Champion Trainer that season?

Thanks for the detailed response  and I do get all that Ima but the only way to trainers' title these days is to win those races at Cheltenham/Liverpool. Average 50 winners a year for Fitzgerald says it all for me. Conditionals often surpass that total. Henderson had top owners way before McManus. Champion trainer 1985/6 1986/7 and not again till 2012/13. Who was number one jockey in the interim? Add in Rough Quest ridden by Fitzgerald as best horse never to win a Gold Cup. The same horse never recovered from his Grand National win under Fitzgerald when he had to survive the indignity of a stewards' enquiry for crossing the second. He was at best an ordinary jockey. Henderson is very loyal to his jocks however. He stuck by Johnny Kavanagh for long enough and by Marcus Foley, who began very well, beyond his sell by date. Whenever Fitzgerald rode a winner Henderson used to come on the telly to say what a fantastic ride it was. He knew that the jockey was criticised amongst the racing community and was trying to support both Fitzgerald and his decision to retain him. In the old days on this forum when Fitzgerald rode a winner the expression was "another power-packed ride from Fitzgerald" but it was intended ironically.

ima. yes a lot of the chasers have been missing but many more have started favourite and been beaten a long way. I can only find 2 wins in May, one in October (Cocktails at Dawn) and Sprinter Sacre in November so far this season. That compares to 29 over hurdles!

I am no fan of Fitzgerald - he has taken racing presenting/punditry to new depths but I must defend his ride on Rough Quest - it was top class ...

Very few National winners recover their form so a tad unfair to blame MF
for Rough Quest.

I can only reiterate that you don't win as many top class races as Fitzgerald did during his career unless you are decent and not too many have won all 4 main championship races at the festival, as well as a Triumph and a Grand National too.

He had a career total of 1280 winners in a 20 year riding career, which is a bit better than averaging 50 a season and that's after a slow start and low profile early part of his career, and at the time of his retirement he was 5th in the list of the most successful jump jockeys of all time numerically.

His punditry is one thing, but I wouldn't put anyone off praising his exploits in the saddle...top class jockey

A j

A journeyman who got lucky, he wouldnt hold Geraghtys coat.